Can the US be Defeated by Russia or China?...

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Sertorio
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Can the US be Defeated by Russia or China?...

Post by Sertorio » Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:55 am

Why America Needs a New Way of War
By Chris Dougherty

For the first time in decades, it is possible to imagine the United States fighting—and possibly losing—a large-scale war with a great power. For generations of Americans accustomed to U.S. military superiority and its ability to deter major wars, the idea of armed conflict between great powers may seem highly improbable. The idea that the United States—with the most expensive armed forces in the world by a wide margin—might lose such a war would seem absolutely preposterous. Nevertheless, the possibility of war and U.S. defeat are real and growing.

Given that U.S. armed forces’ last major conventional combat operations were the massively lopsided victories against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in 1991 and 2003, many Americans might be wondering how this could come to pass. This report makes the case that one salient issue is that the American way of war—the implicit and explicit mental framework for U.S. military strategy and operations—that coalesced after the Gulf War is no longer valid.

China and Russia have spent almost two decades studying the current American way of war. While the Department of Defense (DoD) has taken its military superiority for granted and focused on defeating nonstate adversaries, China and Russia have been devising strategies and developing new concepts and weapons to defeat the United States in a war should the need arise. They have offset their relative weakness versus the United States by using time and geography to their advantage and by focusing their weapons- and concept-development efforts on finding ways to attack vulnerable nodes in U.S. military operations. The goal of these strategies and concepts is to create a plausible theory of victory whereby China or Russia avoid a “fair fight” with the Joint Force and could therefore defeat the United States and its allies and partners in a regional war. These Chinese and Russian strategies, which once seemed implausible or far in the future, are beginning to pay off. They are shifting military balances in key regions and pushing allies and partners to reconsider U.S. security guarantees.

The declining U.S. military advantage in key regions and the increasing plausibility of the Chinese and Russian theories of victory animated the development of the 2018 National Defense Strategy (NDS). The NDS realized that, absent an effort to reshape U.S. military strategy, operational thinking, and consequent force design; the DoD and the Joint Force would face increasing difficulty ensuring favorable balances of power in key regions like East Asia and Europe; countering Chinese and Russian coercion below the level of overt conflict; deterring Chinese and Russian attacks on allies and key partners; and, should deterrence fail, defeating Chinese and Russian aggression. Put more simply, the NDS and efforts like the Third Offset Strategy that preceded it are a flashing warning signal to the DoD, the Joint Force, Congress, and the American people that there are fundamental flaws in the current American way of war.

The potential consequences of these flaws are profound. The possibility of U.S. military defeat, or even the perception that defeat is plausible, could begin to unravel the United States’ constellation of alliances and partnerships as allies and partners begin to hedge their bets on U.S. security guarantees. These relationships have helped the United States maintain a global order that for decades has made Americans secure, prosperous, and free.

(...)

https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/anawow
Meanwhile most Americans keep thinking they are invincible, which is bringing the US ever closer to defeat. Which is fine with me, except that if the war becomes nuclear, the level of global destruction may become unacceptable.

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armchair_pundit
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Re: Can the US be Defeated by Russia or China?...

Post by armchair_pundit » Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:09 am

Sertorio wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:55 am
Why America Needs a New Way of War
By Chris Dougherty

For the first time in decades, it is possible to imagine the United States fighting—and possibly losing—a large-scale war with a great power. For generations of Americans accustomed to U.S. military superiority and its ability to deter major wars, the idea of armed conflict between great powers may seem highly improbable. The idea that the United States—with the most expensive armed forces in the world by a wide margin—might lose such a war would seem absolutely preposterous. Nevertheless, the possibility of war and U.S. defeat are real and growing.

Given that U.S. armed forces’ last major conventional combat operations were the massively lopsided victories against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in 1991 and 2003, many Americans might be wondering how this could come to pass. This report makes the case that one salient issue is that the American way of war—the implicit and explicit mental framework for U.S. military strategy and operations—that coalesced after the Gulf War is no longer valid.

China and Russia have spent almost two decades studying the current American way of war. While the Department of Defense (DoD) has taken its military superiority for granted and focused on defeating nonstate adversaries, China and Russia have been devising strategies and developing new concepts and weapons to defeat the United States in a war should the need arise. They have offset their relative weakness versus the United States by using time and geography to their advantage and by focusing their weapons- and concept-development efforts on finding ways to attack vulnerable nodes in U.S. military operations. The goal of these strategies and concepts is to create a plausible theory of victory whereby China or Russia avoid a “fair fight” with the Joint Force and could therefore defeat the United States and its allies and partners in a regional war. These Chinese and Russian strategies, which once seemed implausible or far in the future, are beginning to pay off. They are shifting military balances in key regions and pushing allies and partners to reconsider U.S. security guarantees.

The declining U.S. military advantage in key regions and the increasing plausibility of the Chinese and Russian theories of victory animated the development of the 2018 National Defense Strategy (NDS). The NDS realized that, absent an effort to reshape U.S. military strategy, operational thinking, and consequent force design; the DoD and the Joint Force would face increasing difficulty ensuring favorable balances of power in key regions like East Asia and Europe; countering Chinese and Russian coercion below the level of overt conflict; deterring Chinese and Russian attacks on allies and key partners; and, should deterrence fail, defeating Chinese and Russian aggression. Put more simply, the NDS and efforts like the Third Offset Strategy that preceded it are a flashing warning signal to the DoD, the Joint Force, Congress, and the American people that there are fundamental flaws in the current American way of war.

The potential consequences of these flaws are profound. The possibility of U.S. military defeat, or even the perception that defeat is plausible, could begin to unravel the United States’ constellation of alliances and partnerships as allies and partners begin to hedge their bets on U.S. security guarantees. These relationships have helped the United States maintain a global order that for decades has made Americans secure, prosperous, and free.

(...)

https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/anawow
Meanwhile most Americans keep thinking they are invincible, which is bringing the US ever closer to defeat. Which is fine with me, except that if the war becomes nuclear, the level of global destruction may become unacceptable.

You are a sick puppy...

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Doc
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Re: Can the US be Defeated by Russia or China?...

Post by Doc » Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:50 am

Sertorio wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:55 am
Why America Needs a New Way of War
By Chris Dougherty

For the first time in decades, it is possible to imagine the United States fighting—and possibly losing—a large-scale war with a great power. For generations of Americans accustomed to U.S. military superiority and its ability to deter major wars, the idea of armed conflict between great powers may seem highly improbable. The idea that the United States—with the most expensive armed forces in the world by a wide margin—might lose such a war would seem absolutely preposterous. Nevertheless, the possibility of war and U.S. defeat are real and growing.

Given that U.S. armed forces’ last major conventional combat operations were the massively lopsided victories against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in 1991 and 2003, many Americans might be wondering how this could come to pass. This report makes the case that one salient issue is that the American way of war—the implicit and explicit mental framework for U.S. military strategy and operations—that coalesced after the Gulf War is no longer valid.

China and Russia have spent almost two decades studying the current American way of war. While the Department of Defense (DoD) has taken its military superiority for granted and focused on defeating nonstate adversaries, China and Russia have been devising strategies and developing new concepts and weapons to defeat the United States in a war should the need arise. They have offset their relative weakness versus the United States by using time and geography to their advantage and by focusing their weapons- and concept-development efforts on finding ways to attack vulnerable nodes in U.S. military operations. The goal of these strategies and concepts is to create a plausible theory of victory whereby China or Russia avoid a “fair fight” with the Joint Force and could therefore defeat the United States and its allies and partners in a regional war. These Chinese and Russian strategies, which once seemed implausible or far in the future, are beginning to pay off. They are shifting military balances in key regions and pushing allies and partners to reconsider U.S. security guarantees.

The declining U.S. military advantage in key regions and the increasing plausibility of the Chinese and Russian theories of victory animated the development of the 2018 National Defense Strategy (NDS). The NDS realized that, absent an effort to reshape U.S. military strategy, operational thinking, and consequent force design; the DoD and the Joint Force would face increasing difficulty ensuring favorable balances of power in key regions like East Asia and Europe; countering Chinese and Russian coercion below the level of overt conflict; deterring Chinese and Russian attacks on allies and key partners; and, should deterrence fail, defeating Chinese and Russian aggression. Put more simply, the NDS and efforts like the Third Offset Strategy that preceded it are a flashing warning signal to the DoD, the Joint Force, Congress, and the American people that there are fundamental flaws in the current American way of war.

The potential consequences of these flaws are profound. The possibility of U.S. military defeat, or even the perception that defeat is plausible, could begin to unravel the United States’ constellation of alliances and partnerships as allies and partners begin to hedge their bets on U.S. security guarantees. These relationships have helped the United States maintain a global order that for decades has made Americans secure, prosperous, and free.

(...)

https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/anawow
Meanwhile most Americans keep thinking they are invincible, which is bringing the US ever closer to defeat. Which is fine with me, except that if the war becomes nuclear, the level of global destruction may become unacceptable.
Then tell that to your friends in Russia and China that believe they can fight and win a tactical nuclear war, and are wiling to fight it because they cannot win a conventional war with the US.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Re: Can the US be Defeated by Russia or China?...

Post by Sertorio » Thu Jun 13, 2019 7:08 am

Doc wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:50 am

Then tell that to your friends in Russia and China that believe they can fight and win a tactical nuclear war, and are wiling to fight it because they cannot win a conventional war with the US.
Why wouldn't they be able to win a conventional war with the US? The US would never be able to move overseas the number of military personnel needed to fight a conventional war with Russia or China. Transport aircraft and ships would never be able to reach their destination. Or do you think that your (sinkable) aircraft carriers would be enough to fight a conventional war overseas?...

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Re: Can the US be Defeated by Russia or China?...

Post by Doc » Thu Jun 13, 2019 7:21 am

Sertorio wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 7:08 am
Doc wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:50 am

Then tell that to your friends in Russia and China that believe they can fight and win a tactical nuclear war, and are wiling to fight it because they cannot win a conventional war with the US.
Why wouldn't they be able to win a conventional war with the US? The US would never be able to move overseas the number of military personnel needed to fight a conventional war with Russia or China. Transport aircraft and ships would never be able to reach their destination. Or do you think that your (sinkable) aircraft carriers would be enough to fight a conventional war overseas?...
Why would Russia and China be talking about winning a tactical nuclear war if they could win a conventional war?
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Sertorio
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Re: Can the US be Defeated by Russia or China?...

Post by Sertorio » Thu Jun 13, 2019 8:01 am

Doc wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 7:21 am
Sertorio wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 7:08 am
Doc wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:50 am

Then tell that to your friends in Russia and China that believe they can fight and win a tactical nuclear war, and are wiling to fight it because they cannot win a conventional war with the US.
Why wouldn't they be able to win a conventional war with the US? The US would never be able to move overseas the number of military personnel needed to fight a conventional war with Russia or China. Transport aircraft and ships would never be able to reach their destination. Or do you think that your (sinkable) aircraft carriers would be enough to fight a conventional war overseas?...
Why would Russia and China be talking about winning a tactical nuclear war if they could win a conventional war?
Because the US is threatening to place tactical nuclear weapons in Europe (Poland, Romania), meant to hit targets in Russia.

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Re: Can the US be Defeated by Russia or China?...

Post by Alexis » Thu Jun 13, 2019 8:14 am

Gentlemen, you assert a lot :)

I would wagger, you assert way too much :P

Who prevails in a war depends on a lot of factors, including geography, relative stakes for each of the warring parties, how the war began etc.

For that reason, there is but little to be said about probable outcome of war "in general" between X and Y.

If you want to say anything realistic about probable outcome of war... you have to specify a scenario.

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Doc
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Re: Can the US be Defeated by Russia or China?...

Post by Doc » Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:17 am

Sertorio wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 8:01 am
Doc wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 7:21 am
Sertorio wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 7:08 am
Doc wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:50 am

Then tell that to your friends in Russia and China that believe they can fight and win a tactical nuclear war, and are wiling to fight it because they cannot win a conventional war with the US.
Why wouldn't they be able to win a conventional war with the US? The US would never be able to move overseas the number of military personnel needed to fight a conventional war with Russia or China. Transport aircraft and ships would never be able to reach their destination. Or do you think that your (sinkable) aircraft carriers would be enough to fight a conventional war overseas?...
Why would Russia and China be talking about winning a tactical nuclear war if they could win a conventional war?
Because the US is threatening to place tactical nuclear weapons in Europe (Poland, Romania), meant to hit targets in Russia.
:lol:
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Doc
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Re: Can the US be Defeated by Russia or China?...

Post by Doc » Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:22 am

Alexis wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 8:14 am
Gentlemen, you assert a lot :)

I would wagger, you assert way too much :P

Who prevails in a war depends on a lot of factors, including geography, relative stakes for each of the warring parties, how the war began etc.

For that reason, there is but little to be said about probable outcome of war "in general" between X and Y.

If you want to say anything realistic about probable outcome of war... you have to specify a scenario.
A war with China will depend on whether or not China can hit the US hard enough to force the US to make a deal before the US blockade of China's raw material supplies starts to seriously bite. Which is very similar to Japan's strategy in WWII.

A war with Russia would at the very least involve Russian use of tactical nuclear weapons. As nuclear weapons are in effect all Putin has.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Sertorio
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Re: Can the US be Defeated by Russia or China?...

Post by Sertorio » Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:58 am

Doc wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:22 am
Alexis wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 8:14 am
Gentlemen, you assert a lot :)

I would wagger, you assert way too much :P

Who prevails in a war depends on a lot of factors, including geography, relative stakes for each of the warring parties, how the war began etc.

For that reason, there is but little to be said about probable outcome of war "in general" between X and Y.

If you want to say anything realistic about probable outcome of war... you have to specify a scenario.
A war with China will depend on whether or not China can hit the US hard enough to force the US to make a deal before the US blockade of China's raw material supplies starts to seriously bite. Which is very similar to Japan's strategy in WWII.

A war with Russia would at the very least involve Russian use of tactical nuclear weapons. As nuclear weapons are in effect all Putin has.
For all practical purposes the US has no land army capable of fighting in Asia or in Europe against China or Russia. Unless the US places in advance one million soldiers in either Europe or Asia (and where in Asia?), it will not be able to fight either country on land. Both Russia and China could shoot down or sink any transport of soldiers from the US. So, all the US has is a navy - and its aircraft carriers may be already too vulnerable to attack - and an air force, and neither of them can defeat the two continental countries, Russia and China. As to blockading either country, forget it. Without a land army on the front, tactical nuclear weapons are nearly useless. As to strategic nuclear weapons, nobody would be crazy enough to use them. Believe me, the US can no longer defeat either Russia or China in a conventional war. Soon, all the US will have is a relative control of the western hemisphere. To which both China and Russia will say, wellcome to it!...

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