Blue or Red Wave?

Discussion of current events
neverfail
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Re: beware of offending the ladies Donald. They pack a punch when scorned.

Post by neverfail » Thu Nov 08, 2018 8:16 pm

Doc wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:21 am


The Democrats problem is not so much no leadership Which is a marginal consideration since House seats are the most local of politics in the US federal system. Their real problem is lack on any positive issues to push. This is due to their big donors wanting something different than their individual party members want. For example in the DNC emails someone suggested adding to the party platform and $15 minimum wage. One of their biggest donors a Walton family (Think Walmart) member said no way. So they ignored and marginalized the person that suggested the $15 per hour minimum wage.

Things like this are what is driving the Democrats agenda. They can't propose much of anything because their constiuents and their donors are 180 degree apart on what they want. SO they attack Trump and the republicans by claiming they are evil no matter what.
Thanks for that briefing doc. It seems quite a plausible analysis.

Jim the Moron
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Re: beware of offending the ladies Donald. They pack a punch when scorned.

Post by Jim the Moron » Fri Nov 09, 2018 6:44 am

Milo wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:00 pm
neverfail wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:06 pm
cassowary wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:59 pm
Doc wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:22 pm
neverfail wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:54 pm
Obama was elected in 2008 and the same wave of voter support that propelled him into the White House delivered both houses of Congress into the hands of Democrat majorities. Obama only had the luxury of a Congress of (approx.) the same political colour as himself for just 2 years. The first midterm elections delivered the House of Representatives into the hands of the Republicans. They retained control of the legislature making life hard for Obama for his remaining 6 years of incumbency.

Now that we have a Republican president and a predominantly Democrats House of Reps. (lost by trump at very first mid-term elections during his incumbency) it seems that what does around comes around.
It is what historically happens Obama lost 54 Democratic members of the left after two years the average loss is 32 from the POTUS' party. Trump just lost 27. Blue trickle rather than a blue wave. Even though the Democrats and the MSM have been telling us for a year that there was going to be a Blue Tsunami
Doc is right never fail. Most Presidents lose seats in their first midterm. This is the perverse nature of American politics. Trump has done better than average, losing fewer seats in the House and even winning seats in the Senate.
Thanks fellows.

I find the uptic in the Democrats support all the more remarkable because currently the Democrats appear to have NO OBVIOUS LEADER to rally around and galvanise supporters into organised action. I can only conclude that the swing against the Republicans was entirely reactive. Not hard to see why:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... er/571720/

Although this Atlantic essay is over a month old, it's point is supported by news analysis out here since the results of the poll came in. Whilst blacks and Hispanics (of both genders) predominantly voted Democrats (they usually do) the big upsurge in support came from disillusioned white women (especially college educated ones) offended by Trump's record of disrespect for their gender.

Quite apart from the popular vote more women ran as candidates for election to Congress thyan ever before - especially for the democrats.

The final straw must have been the appointment of pro-life Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. It is so much easier to be pro-life rather than pro-choice when you are a male who by virtue of biology is never likely to need an abortion anyway. The ladies might have a different take on this.

In summary: whilst trump's appeal might have held up among American white men (many of whom probably harbour similar attitudes towards women) it has likely collapsed among women. This would especially be true of women who in sometime in their lives have been subjected to some form of sexual abuse. I believe that there is no shortage of those.

Cassowary, you have time and again projected the view that politics is entirely a matter of economics. If this were so then with the US economy ostensibly in its best state for half a century a grateful constituency should have delivered Trump's Republican Party continued majority control of the House of Reps. along with the Senate. It takes more than presiding over a burgeoning economy to make real leadership - which does not always emerge during salubrious times anyway. This is a case where Republican electoral losses are entirely Trump self-inflicted.

Like you guys, Trump lost track of the fact that in any country with free and fair elections, at least one half of voters are women.

The female of the human species never sees things entirely the same way as the male.
America has lagged behind other developed countries on this. It appears that is changing, for one party anyway.
Not surprisingly, our friend neverfail misunderstands American society . . .

"Why Do White Women Keep Voting for the GOP"
https://www.vogue.com/article/white-wom ... op-problem

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SteveFoerster
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Re: Blue or Red Wave?

Post by SteveFoerster » Fri Nov 09, 2018 9:44 am

Jim the Moron wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:56 am
Sertorio wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:22 am
SteveFoerster wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 8:12 am
Sertorio wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:13 am
Mr. Perfect wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:56 pm
Gridlock is the worst.
Gridlock is the best. If you can't do anything, you can't do anything wrong...
I agree, at least in the sense that gridlock was the least undesirable realistic outcome. But they certainly can still do wrong. Especially unfortunate is that military interventionism seems to be immune from the brakes otherwise provided by divided control.
Steve,

Sometimes I think you may feel a bit lonely out there, in the States... Not that there won't be more people thinking as you do, but you certainly are not enough to make any difference... Don't you feel sometimes like emigrating?...
It's rumored that Steve sneaks off to the West Indies from time-to-time. Now maybe we know why . . .
I've lived abroad full time before when that made sense, and might again. As the saying goes, "Ubi panis ibi patria." But believe it or not, politics is even more insipid in Dominica. There's only the most cursory discussion of policy there; it's entirely about personalities. And elections are due within the next year, so things there will be completely insane for a while once they're announced. The only saving grace is that unlike in the U.S. it's not always election season.
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Doc
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Re: Blue or Red Wave?

Post by Doc » Fri Nov 09, 2018 1:39 pm

SteveFoerster wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 9:44 am
Jim the Moron wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:56 am
Sertorio wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:22 am
SteveFoerster wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 8:12 am
Sertorio wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:13 am
Mr. Perfect wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:56 pm
Gridlock is the worst.
Gridlock is the best. If you can't do anything, you can't do anything wrong...
I agree, at least in the sense that gridlock was the least undesirable realistic outcome. But they certainly can still do wrong. Especially unfortunate is that military interventionism seems to be immune from the brakes otherwise provided by divided control.
Steve,

Sometimes I think you may feel a bit lonely out there, in the States... Not that there won't be more people thinking as you do, but you certainly are not enough to make any difference... Don't you feel sometimes like emigrating?...
It's rumored that Steve sneaks off to the West Indies from time-to-time. Now maybe we know why . . .
I've lived abroad full time before when that made sense, and might again. As the saying goes, "Ubi panis ibi patria." But believe it or not, politics is even more insipid in Dominica. There's only the most cursory discussion of policy there; it's entirely about personalities. And elections are due within the next year, so things there will be completely insane for a while once they're announced. The only saving grace is that unlike in the U.S. it's not always election season.
The same could be said for Cuba Steve.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

neverfail
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Re: Blue or Red Wave?

Post by neverfail » Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:29 pm

SteveFoerster wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 9:44 am
Jim the Moron wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:56 am


It's rumored that Steve sneaks off to the West Indies from time-to-time. Now maybe we know why . . .
I've lived abroad full time before when that made sense, and might again. As the saying goes, "Ubi panis ibi patria." But believe it or not, politics is even more insipid in Dominica. There's only the most cursory discussion of policy there; it's entirely about personalities. And elections are due within the next year, so things there will be completely insane for a while once they're announced. The only saving grace is that unlike in the U.S. it's not always election season.
Well, in Dominica (being ex-British colony) they most likely combine a unitary state with a parliamentary system modelled on Westminster. It is just a pity that it is such a tiny, obscure backwater that they have nothing better to fight elections over other than personalities. That's seems to be the trouble with any nation-state the approximate size of a municipality. The nation's politics resemble those of a local council.

neverfail
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Re: Donald Trump is cornered and he knows it?

Post by neverfail » Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:01 pm

https://www.canberratimes.com.au/world/ ... 50f0a.html

I actually disagree with the authoress of this opinion piece. All that the Democratic Party would need to do is to endorse Hillary Clinton for a second run as their candidate for president in 2020 and they will very much improve Trumps prospects for re-election.

Given the sheer hit-and-miss inanity of the process by which endorsed presidential candidates are selected in the US, I believe that to be highly likely. But what do you think?

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SteveFoerster
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Re: Blue or Red Wave?

Post by SteveFoerster » Fri Nov 09, 2018 7:26 pm

Doc wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 1:39 pm
The same could be said for Cuba Steve.
Heh, I suppose, although I'm sure you knew my point was not that election season is the worst possible thing.
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SteveFoerster
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Re: Blue or Red Wave?

Post by SteveFoerster » Fri Nov 09, 2018 7:33 pm

neverfail wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:29 pm
SteveFoerster wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 9:44 am
Jim the Moron wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:56 am


It's rumored that Steve sneaks off to the West Indies from time-to-time. Now maybe we know why . . .
I've lived abroad full time before when that made sense, and might again. As the saying goes, "Ubi panis ibi patria." But believe it or not, politics is even more insipid in Dominica. There's only the most cursory discussion of policy there; it's entirely about personalities. And elections are due within the next year, so things there will be completely insane for a while once they're announced. The only saving grace is that unlike in the U.S. it's not always election season.
Well, in Dominica (being ex-British colony) they most likely combine a unitary state with a parliamentary system modelled on Westminster.

The House of Assembly is parliamentary, but it differs from Westminster in being unicameral and containing a mix of elected and appointed members.
neverfail wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:29 pm
It is just a pity that it is such a tiny, obscure backwater that they have nothing better to fight elections over other than personalities. That's seems to be the trouble with any nation-state the approximate size of a municipality. The nation's politics resemble those of a local council.
Chongqing and Shanghai are municipalities either of which has more people than Australia, so I suppose the distinction is relative....
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neverfail
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Re: "good ol’ American exceptionalism." - a substandard, malfunctioning electoral system?

Post by neverfail » Sat Nov 10, 2018 1:57 pm

:D

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal ... 50es9.html
The US bills itself as the “greatest democracy on Earth” but that’s just good ol’ American exceptionalism. It’s one of the world’s oldest and most enduring democracies but the most democratic, it ain’t.

Frankly, if the US were a developing country, we’d be sending in international observers to monitor whether the elections were “fair and free”.

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SteveFoerster
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Re: "good ol’ American exceptionalism." - a substandard, malfunctioning electoral system?

Post by SteveFoerster » Sat Nov 10, 2018 8:15 pm

neverfail wrote:
Sat Nov 10, 2018 1:57 pm
:D

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal ... 50es9.html
The US bills itself as the “greatest democracy on Earth” but that’s just good ol’ American exceptionalism. It’s one of the world’s oldest and most enduring democracies but the most democratic, it ain’t.

Frankly, if the US were a developing country, we’d be sending in international observers to monitor whether the elections were “fair and free”.
It's true, can't argue with that.
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President of New World University: http://newworld.ac

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