A Trump trade deal with China?

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neverfail
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A Trump trade deal with China?

Post by neverfail » Thu Oct 25, 2018 5:06 am

http://www.atimes.com/article/will-stoc ... ith-china/
Lots of things are going wrong, as I wrote on October 11. The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates. Stretched balance sheets at global banks have made it hard for foreign buyers of US Treasuries to hedge foreign exchange risk, putting more upward pressure on Treasury yields, as Asia Times reported in an October 9 exclusive.

The US housing market has imploded with new home sales down almost 20% year-on-year. The first round of tariffs on Chinese imports has raised costs for US manufacturers, as the Fed reported in its October Beige Book on Wednesday.

US corporate profits as reported to the Treasury were down year-on-year in the second quarter, but per-share profits rose due to record buybacks – an unsustainable sugar high.

One of the biggest sources of uncertainty is the next round of China tariffs, which will raise the costs of inputs to US manufacturers as well as consumer goods, adding up to 1% to the inflation rate, according to most Wall Street estimates.

We won’t know how badly tariffs will hit the US economy until the first quarter of 2019, when inventories purchased at pre-tariff rates run out and manufacturers and retailers have to re-order at higher prices. But the impact of the first round of tariffs is already big enough to move the needle, according to the Federal Reserve survey.

US consumers’ budgets already are stretched. A modest rise in mortgage rates has already pushed large numbers of home buyers out of the market, and homebuilders’ stocks are down 35% during the year to date. In fact, most sectors of the US stock market are down sharply.
The gloom goes on and on.

Hopefully, both XI and Trump will come to their senses.

Jim the Moron
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Re: A Trump trade deal with China?

Post by Jim the Moron » Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:12 pm

Enough already with the gloom . . .

"America should let China lose the trade war gracefully"
https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourd ... 8fd0291842

Let's hope for a win-win scenario . . .

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armchair_pundit
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Re: A Trump trade deal with China?

Post by armchair_pundit » Fri Oct 26, 2018 12:47 pm

Bomb them with opium, they are bombing us with Fetanyl :evil:

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Doc
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Re: A Trump trade deal with China?

Post by Doc » Sun Nov 04, 2018 2:39 pm

Jim the Moron wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:12 pm
Enough already with the gloom . . .

"America should let China lose the trade war gracefully"
https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourd ... 8fd0291842

Let's hope for a win-win scenario . . .
It is much more than a trade war. It is about who's century it is.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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SteveFoerster
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Re: A Trump trade deal with China?

Post by SteveFoerster » Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:12 am

Doc wrote:
Sun Nov 04, 2018 2:39 pm
Jim the Moron wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:12 pm
Enough already with the gloom . . .

"America should let China lose the trade war gracefully"
https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourd ... 8fd0291842

Let's hope for a win-win scenario . . .
It is much more than a trade war. It is about who's century it is.
Or rather, that a century doesn't belong to a single power anymore and that a multipolar world has arisen and is here to stay.
Writer, technologist, educator, gadfly.
President of New World University: http://newworld.ac

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Doc
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Re: A Trump trade deal with China?

Post by Doc » Mon Nov 05, 2018 10:38 am

SteveFoerster wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:12 am
Doc wrote:
Sun Nov 04, 2018 2:39 pm
Jim the Moron wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:12 pm
Enough already with the gloom . . .

"America should let China lose the trade war gracefully"
https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourd ... 8fd0291842

Let's hope for a win-win scenario . . .
It is much more than a trade war. It is about who's century it is.
Or rather, that a century doesn't belong to a single power anymore and that a multipolar world has arisen and is here to stay.
The Chinese were given that option several years ago They rejected it out of hand.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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SteveFoerster
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Re: A Trump trade deal with China?

Post by SteveFoerster » Mon Nov 05, 2018 10:54 pm

Doc wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 10:38 am
SteveFoerster wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:12 am
Doc wrote:
Sun Nov 04, 2018 2:39 pm
Jim the Moron wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:12 pm
Enough already with the gloom . . .

"America should let China lose the trade war gracefully"
https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourd ... 8fd0291842

Let's hope for a win-win scenario . . .
It is much more than a trade war. It is about who's century it is.
Or rather, that a century doesn't belong to a single power anymore and that a multipolar world has arisen and is here to stay.
The Chinese were given that option several years ago They rejected it out of hand.
Well, they're not going to be able to assume the role that the U.S. plays, so it's to be a multipolar world whether the U.S. and China wishes it or not.
Writer, technologist, educator, gadfly.
President of New World University: http://newworld.ac

neverfail
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Re: A Trump trade deal with China?

Post by neverfail » Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:11 pm

SteveFoerster wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:12 am

Or rather, that a century doesn't belong to a single power anymore and that a multipolar world has arisen and is here to stay.
A multipolar world is an unstable world.

The World was multipolar before World War One and again before World War Two. Look what happened!

It you want a peaceful, stable world then it can only be manifest in a clear, unequivocal international power hierarchy in which one particular power is undeniably the top dog.

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Doc
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Re: A Trump trade deal with China?

Post by Doc » Fri Nov 09, 2018 4:50 pm

neverfail wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:11 pm
SteveFoerster wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:12 am

Or rather, that a century doesn't belong to a single power anymore and that a multipolar world has arisen and is here to stay.
A multipolar world is an unstable world.

The World was multipolar before World War One and again before World War Two. Look what happened!

It you want a peaceful, stable world then it can only be manifest in a clear, unequivocal international power hierarchy in which one particular power is undeniably the top dog.
I was thinking about this very thing. Multilateralism hasn't worked either. How may do we count the wars? Between 1945 and 1991 I don't recall any failed states. Some revolutions maybe Some proxy wars but not much else. After the fall of the Soviet Union things have gotten much hairier. Back then it was bilateral-ism. You pick which side you want to be on and you stay loyal to it. With assured mutual destruction guaranteeing things won't get to far out of hand. Since then I have personally seen a rally of Pakistanis on the Mall in Washington DC gleefully celebrating Pakistan being able to destroy India and be destroyed by India in return within a few minutes.

That was a real eye opener about the state of world peace.

Don't kid yourself Multilateralism doesn't work either. There is way too much incentive to cheat.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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SteveFoerster
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Re: A Trump trade deal with China?

Post by SteveFoerster » Fri Nov 09, 2018 7:20 pm

neverfail wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:11 pm
SteveFoerster wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:12 am

Or rather, that a century doesn't belong to a single power anymore and that a multipolar world has arisen and is here to stay.
A multipolar world is an unstable world.

The World was multipolar before World War One and again before World War Two. Look what happened!

It you want a peaceful, stable world then it can only be manifest in a clear, unequivocal international power hierarchy in which one particular power is undeniably the top dog.
Well, rather than argue, I'll simply say that it doesn't matter whether that's true or not, because that's not what's going to happen any time soon.
Writer, technologist, educator, gadfly.
President of New World University: http://newworld.ac

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