Sertorio wrote: ↑
Thu Oct 19, 2017 4:57 pm
Oh boy! This is going to be fun! If the Catalan people who favour independence do as they are asked, those banks which ran away from Barcelona are going to have a very nasty surprise!...
Catalan independentists have three problems.
Since their attempt at a referendum:
- They failed to obtain any international support, including crucially from other EU members who all said they supported Spain defending her Constitution
- They triggered a real stampede not only of banks but of hundreds of companies relocating their head outside of Catalonia to somewhere else in Spain, fearful of losing access to Spanish and EU market
- They triggered a massive pro-Spain demonstration in Barcelona, as large if not larger than any pro-independence demonstration they had ever organized
Here is the deal
: they are isolated internationally, isolated in Catalonia with at least half of the population strongly against them, and prospective economic hardship certain to convince part of even their supporters to calm down and think anew
On the other side
, the Spanish government is surfing on a tide of renewed national pride, including - this is crucial - in Catalonia, it is supported by every European government and their cousin, and all it has to do to win is to apply the law quietly, since time is on their side anyway as economic problems begin to rain down on Catalonia as a result of independentist behavior.
Independentists will be crushed, as the first step
If the Spanish government has enough sense, they will later negotiate a larger autonomy for Catalonia inside Spain, however not with independentists but with pro-Spain Catalans. That will crush independentists further, as a second and hopefully final step.