ISIS on the run under Trump

Discussion of current events
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Sertorio
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Re: even when America wins it still loses.

Post by Sertorio » Tue Oct 17, 2017 2:44 am

cassowary wrote:
Sun Oct 15, 2017 8:52 pm
neverfail wrote:
Sun Oct 15, 2017 4:24 am

If the Iraqi government forces are driving out ISIS that can only mean that the Shias are tightening their grip on the Sunni north. Big geostrategic gain for Iran.
Maybe or maybe not. I think Trump's assistance has restored some American influence in Iraq. It lessens their dependency on Iran. Even if what you say is true, this is still the way forward.
It's almost touching to see you fight for America, even an America led by a psychopat. But the truth is that the US is on its way out of the ME, with the exception of Israel and, for the time being, Saudi. The US has lost the ISIS bet, has lost in Syria, is going to lose in Iraq, will lose its attempt at sending Iran back into quarantine, and is going to lose the attempt at creating a Kurdistan (for which I will be sorry). Except for its nuclear force, the US cannot win any war in the ME, much less against Iran. The US may bomb, kill people and destroy infrastructures in the ME, but it cannot defeat any of its adversaries because it lacks enough troops to succeed. The US armed forces are too small to invade Iran and at the same time keep manning its bases around the world. And bringing the draft back is impossible. You may believe in American exceptionalism, but what you would need is a miracle, and they don't happen anymore... So, start thinking about your Chinese ancestry and forget the US...

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dagbay
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Re: ISIS on the run under Trump

Post by dagbay » Tue Oct 17, 2017 5:10 am

Sertorio wrote:
Tue Oct 17, 2017 2:44 am
cassowary wrote:
Sun Oct 15, 2017 8:52 pm
neverfail wrote:
Sun Oct 15, 2017 4:24 am

If the Iraqi government forces are driving out ISIS that can only mean that the Shias are tightening their grip on the Sunni north. Big geostrategic gain for Iran.
Maybe or maybe not. I think Trump's assistance has restored some American influence in Iraq. It lessens their dependency on Iran. Even if what you say is true, this is still the way forward.
It's almost touching to see you fight for America, even an America led by a psychopat. But the truth is that the US is on its way out of the ME, with the exception of Israel and, for the time being, Saudi. The US has lost the ISIS bet, has lost in Syria, is going to lose in Iraq, will lose its attempt at sending Iran back into quarantine, and is going to lose the attempt at creating a Kurdistan (for which I will be sorry). Except for its nuclear force, the US cannot win any war in the ME, much less against Iran. The US may bomb, kill people and destroy infrastructures in the ME, but it cannot defeat any of its adversaries because it lacks enough troops to succeed. The US armed forces are too small to invade Iran and at the same time keep manning its bases around the world. And bringing the draft back is impossible. You may believe in American exceptionalism, but what you would need is a miracle, and they don't happen anymore... So, start thinking about your Chinese ancestry and forget the US...
So the future is bleak in your view Sertorio? With the Ayatollahs wilding nuks and dedicated to the spread of Islam by the nukes it will be ugly. But I do not believe that your posited future will come to pass. As a realist I believe that this might be a period that US influence is contracting and it has no stamina for distant wars but I also believe that the long game strategy may need to change in an era of long range drone warfare. Armies of sword wilding men may be giving way to technology. The world has seen many ups and downs before and seemingly unlikely events changed the course of history. For example take the fall of the USSR and the disintegration of the Arab world aka the Arab Spring.
I'd rather be diving or flying alas for now I am on terra firma.

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Sertorio
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Re: ISIS on the run under Trump

Post by Sertorio » Tue Oct 17, 2017 5:18 am

dagbay wrote:
Tue Oct 17, 2017 5:10 am
Sertorio wrote:
Tue Oct 17, 2017 2:44 am
cassowary wrote:
Sun Oct 15, 2017 8:52 pm
neverfail wrote:
Sun Oct 15, 2017 4:24 am

If the Iraqi government forces are driving out ISIS that can only mean that the Shias are tightening their grip on the Sunni north. Big geostrategic gain for Iran.
Maybe or maybe not. I think Trump's assistance has restored some American influence in Iraq. It lessens their dependency on Iran. Even if what you say is true, this is still the way forward.
It's almost touching to see you fight for America, even an America led by a psychopat. But the truth is that the US is on its way out of the ME, with the exception of Israel and, for the time being, Saudi. The US has lost the ISIS bet, has lost in Syria, is going to lose in Iraq, will lose its attempt at sending Iran back into quarantine, and is going to lose the attempt at creating a Kurdistan (for which I will be sorry). Except for its nuclear force, the US cannot win any war in the ME, much less against Iran. The US may bomb, kill people and destroy infrastructures in the ME, but it cannot defeat any of its adversaries because it lacks enough troops to succeed. The US armed forces are too small to invade Iran and at the same time keep manning its bases around the world. And bringing the draft back is impossible. You may believe in American exceptionalism, but what you would need is a miracle, and they don't happen anymore... So, start thinking about your Chinese ancestry and forget the US...
So the future is bleak in your view Sertorio? With the Ayatollahs wilding nuks and dedicated to the spread of Islam by the nukes it will be ugly. But I do not believe that your posited future will come to pass. As a realist I believe that this might be a period that US influence is contracting and it has no stamina for distant wars but I also believe that the long game strategy may need to change in an era of long range drone warfare. Armies of sword wilding men may be giving way to technology. The world has seen many ups and downs before and seemingly unlikely events changed the course of history. For example take the fall of the USSR and the disintegration of the Arab world aka the Arab Spring.
Iran's fanatic islamism is temporary. I believe many Iranians are already sick of their ayatollahs, and are hoping for a secular regime in a secular Iran. For the time being there are yet too many underdeveloped Iranian peasants who are profoundly religious, but as the number of educated Iranians grow, their control on politics wil disappear. Just be patient

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cassowary
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Re: even when America wins it still loses.

Post by cassowary » Tue Oct 17, 2017 7:26 am

Sertorio wrote:
Tue Oct 17, 2017 2:44 am
cassowary wrote:
Sun Oct 15, 2017 8:52 pm
neverfail wrote:
Sun Oct 15, 2017 4:24 am

If the Iraqi government forces are driving out ISIS that can only mean that the Shias are tightening their grip on the Sunni north. Big geostrategic gain for Iran.
Maybe or maybe not. I think Trump's assistance has restored some American influence in Iraq. It lessens their dependency on Iran. Even if what you say is true, this is still the way forward.
It's almost touching to see you fight for America, even an America led by a psychopat.
Trump is no psychopath. Putin is.
But the truth is that the US is on its way out of the ME, with the exception of Israel and, for the time being, Saudi.
Besides Israel, it has influence with the Gulf states and Egypt. It has a base in Qatar. The only areas that oppose the US are Syria and Iran, both Russian allies.
The US has lost the ISIS bet, has lost in Syria, is going to lose in Iraq, will lose its attempt at sending Iran back into quarantine, and is going to lose the attempt at creating a Kurdistan (for which I will be sorry). Except for its nuclear force, the US cannot win any war in the ME, much less against Iran. The US may bomb, kill people and destroy infrastructures in the ME, but it cannot defeat any of its adversaries because it lacks enough troops to succeed. The US armed forces are too small to invade Iran and at the same time keep manning its bases around the world. And bringing the draft back is impossible. You may believe in American exceptionalism, but what you would need is a miracle, and they don't happen anymore... So, start thinking about your Chinese ancestry and forget the US...
The US is winning the ISIS bet because the territory under its control has shrunk. As for Kurdistan, Trump vigorously opposed the referendum for Independence. So your statement that the US is attempting at creating a Kurdistan is false.

You don't need a large army to win wars. Saddam Hussein's army outnumbered the US force but Saddam lost.

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Doc
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Re: ISIS on the run under Trump

Post by Doc » Tue Oct 17, 2017 8:10 am

neverfail wrote:
Sun Oct 15, 2017 5:36 pm
cassowary wrote:
Sat Oct 14, 2017 6:09 pm
ISIS on the run under Trump
Former President Barack Obama had allowed the ISIS cancer to metastasize in the first place, .....
:?: Allowed it to happen? :? :? :?

Oh yeah, sure! As though something like ISIS needed the consent of a US president in order to metabolize.

What a megalomaniac definition of the sort of power a US president can wield.
All Obama had to do was create a power vacuum in Iraq before the Iraqi government was ready to defend itself. That is very very clear just by the number of deaths at the time Obama removed teh troops in 2011 and the large upsurge in violence in Iraq afterwards
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Milo
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Re: ISIS on the run under Trump

Post by Milo » Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:52 am

And now the Kurds are on the run under Trump!

Kirkuk: Iraqi forces seize largest oilfields near city
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-41649729

neverfail
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Re: don't bag Obama over someone else's policy failure.

Post by neverfail » Tue Oct 17, 2017 4:33 pm

Doc wrote:
Tue Oct 17, 2017 8:10 am

All Obama had to do was create a power vacuum in Iraq before the Iraqi government was ready to defend itself. That is very very clear just by the number of deaths at the time Obama removed teh troops in 2011 and the large upsurge in violence in Iraq afterwards
Mate: the power vacuum was created when the imbecile George Bush administration wiped away the Baathist regime of Saddam Hussein back in 2003 - thereby opening the door wide for the sectarian warfare that has ensued there ever since.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawa ... _from_Iraq

Are you unaware that the troop withdrawal began in 2007 during the second term of that same myopic administration? Though conceded that Congress, no doubt with an eye on coming elections in light of a shift in public opinion, had a hand in bringing about the troop withdraw debacle. Obama in 2011 was merely honoring an agreement entered into on behalf of the USA during the incumbency of his predecessor in office and sanctified by Congress.

(quote) The withdrawal of U.S. military forces from Iraq began in December 2007 with the end of the Iraq War troop surge of 2007 and was completed by December 2011, bringing an end to the Iraq War. The number of U.S. military forces in Iraq peaked at 170,300 in November 2007.

The withdrawal of U.S. military forces from Iraq was a contentious issue in the United States for much of the 2000s. As the war progressed from its initial invasion phase in 2003 to a nearly decade-long occupation, American public opinion shifted towards favoring a troop withdrawal; in May 2007, 55% of Americans believed that the Iraq War was a mistake, and 51% of registered voters favored troop withdrawal.[7] In late April 2007 Congress passed a supplementary spending bill for Iraq that set a deadline for troop withdrawal but President Bush vetoed this bill, citing his concerns about setting a withdrawal deadline.[8][9][10] The Bush Administration later sought an agreement with the Iraqi government, and in 2008 George W. Bush signed the U.S.–Iraq Status of Forces Agreement. It included a deadline of 31 December 2011, before which "all the United States Forces shall withdraw from all Iraqi territory".[11][12][13] The last U.S. troops left Iraq on 18 December 2011, in accordance with this agreement.[1][11][12]
(unquote)

Should Obama have disowned the agreement solemnly entered into with a foreign sovereign government and imposed US troops on that hapless country regardless of whether they wanted US troops there or not - with the same utter contempt that Bush and Co. treated Iraqi sovereignty back in 2003? :oops: I am sure that Iraq being made look like a US puppet state compliant to the whims of US politics would have gone over very well in those parts. :(

neverfail
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Re: Next step in the unending Iraq tragedy?

Post by neverfail » Tue Oct 17, 2017 4:50 pm

Milo wrote:
Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:52 am
And now the Kurds are on the run under Trump!

Kirkuk: Iraqi forces seize largest oilfields near city
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-41649729
If Kurdish forces do not retake Kirkuk and its surrounding oilfields from the Iraqi (Shiite) forces, they will not have much of a country to claim sovereignty over.

Next step in the shifting sands of the Iraq conflict may be a tactical alliance of convenience between the Kurdish Peshmerga and ISIS against the Iraqi government. That should be interesting to watch.

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Doc
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Re: don't bag Obama over someone else's policy failure.

Post by Doc » Tue Oct 17, 2017 5:15 pm

neverfail wrote:
Tue Oct 17, 2017 4:33 pm
Doc wrote:
Tue Oct 17, 2017 8:10 am

All Obama had to do was create a power vacuum in Iraq before the Iraqi government was ready to defend itself. That is very very clear just by the number of deaths at the time Obama removed teh troops in 2011 and the large upsurge in violence in Iraq afterwards
Mate: the power vacuum was created when the imbecile George Bush administration wiped away the Baathist regime of Saddam Hussein back in 2003 - thereby opening the door wide for the sectarian warfare that has ensued there ever since.

The data is exceptionally clear.
multigraph.jpg
multigraph.jpg (42.95 KiB) Viewed 354 times


The war was won before Bush left the White House. The violence there was way way down. It was only after Obama pulled US troops out of Iraq that ISIS came back
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawa ... _from_Iraq

Are you unaware that the troop withdrawal began in 2007 during the second term of that same myopic administration? Though conceded that Congress, no doubt with an eye on coming elections in light of a shift in public opinion, had a hand in bringing about the troop withdraw debacle. Obama in 2011 was merely honoring an agreement entered into on behalf of the USA during the incumbency of his predecessor in office and sanctified by Congress.
The Generals want to leave 30k US troop in Iraq on their bases to react quickly in the Iraqi Army needed help. Obama offered the Iraqi Government far less. And thus sabotaged any political agreement in Iraq to have US troops stay because it was not enough troops to matter. .

Should Obama have disowned the agreement solemnly entered into with a foreign sovereign government and imposed US troops on that hapless country regardless of whether they wanted US troops there or not - with the same utter contempt that Bush and Co. treated Iraqi sovereignty back in 2003? :oops: I am sure that Iraq being made look like a US puppet state compliant to the whims of US politics would have gone over very well in those parts. :(
That just is not what happened.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

neverfail
Posts: 2582
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2016 3:47 am

Re: don't bag Obama over someone else's policy failure.

Post by neverfail » Tue Oct 17, 2017 9:14 pm

Doc wrote:
Tue Oct 17, 2017 5:15 pm
neverfail wrote:
Tue Oct 17, 2017 4:33 pm
Doc wrote:
Tue Oct 17, 2017 8:10 am

All Obama had to do was create a power vacuum in Iraq before the Iraqi government was ready to defend itself. That is very very clear just by the number of deaths at the time Obama removed teh troops in 2011 and the large upsurge in violence in Iraq afterwards
Mate: the power vacuum was created when the imbecile George Bush administration wiped away the Baathist regime of Saddam Hussein back in 2003 - thereby opening the door wide for the sectarian warfare that has ensued there ever since.

The data is exceptionally clear.
multigraph.jpg

The war was won before Bush left the White House. The violence there was way way down. It was only after Obama pulled US troops out of Iraq that ISIS came back
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawa ... _from_Iraq

Are you unaware that the troop withdrawal began in 2007 during the second term of that same myopic administration? Though conceded that Congress, no doubt with an eye on coming elections in light of a shift in public opinion, had a hand in bringing about the troop withdraw debacle. Obama in 2011 was merely honoring an agreement entered into on behalf of the USA during the incumbency of his predecessor in office and sanctified by Congress.
The Generals want to leave 30k US troop in Iraq on their bases to react quickly in the Iraqi Army needed help. Obama offered the Iraqi Government far less. And thus sabotaged any political agreement in Iraq to have US troops stay because it was not enough troops to matter. .

Should Obama have disowned the agreement solemnly entered into with a foreign sovereign government and imposed US troops on that hapless country regardless of whether they wanted US troops there or not - with the same utter contempt that Bush and Co. treated Iraqi sovereignty back in 2003? :oops: I am sure that Iraq being made look like a US puppet state compliant to the whims of US politics would have gone over very well in those parts. :(
That just is not what happened.
(quote from my above post) " .......in 2008 George W. Bush signed the U.S.–Iraq Status of Forces Agreement. It included a deadline of 31 December 2011, before which "all the United States Forces shall withdraw from all Iraqi territory".[11][12][13] The last U.S. troops left Iraq on 18 December 2011, in accordance with this agreement.[1][11][12] (unquote)....."

You are wrong about the war having been won before Bush left the White House. They were fighting a different enemy in those days. Sunni Muslims were in revolt from the start knowing that they had no future in an Shia run Iraq. It was subsequent actions by the (Shia) Malaki that subsequently prompted some of these these to turn to ISIS:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/ ... isis-jihad

Your apparent ignorance of the internal politics of Iraq and silly belief that the outcome in Iraq always depended solely on applied American military might beggars belief.

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