Trump's Revenge: US floods EU with oil

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cassowary
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Re: Trump's Revenge: US floods EU with oil

Post by cassowary » Mon Apr 23, 2018 5:06 pm

MOSCOW/LONDON (Reuters) - As OPEC's efforts to balance the oil market bear fruit, U.S. producers are reaping the benefits - and flooding Europe with a record amount of crude.

Russia paired with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries last year in cutting oil output jointly by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd), a deal they say has largely rebalanced the market and one that has helped elevate benchmark Brent prices close to four-year highs.

Now, the relatively high prices brought about by that pact, coupled with surging U.S. output, are making it harder to sell Russian, Nigerian and other oil grades in Europe, traders said.

"U.S. oil is on offer everywhere," said a trader with a Mediterranean refiner, who regularly buys Russian and Caspian Sea crude and has recently started purchasing U.S. oil. "It puts local grades under a lot of pressure."

U.S. oil output is expected to hit 10.7 million bpd this year, rivaling that of top producers Russia and Saudi Arabia.
Sertorio,

Hahaha, Russia and OPEC cut production. Price of oil goes up. The US sells more and benefits. At this rate, Putin cannot afford his empire.

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Milo
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Re: Trump's Revenge: US floods EU with oil

Post by Milo » Mon Apr 23, 2018 5:42 pm

cassowary wrote:
Mon Apr 23, 2018 5:06 pm
MOSCOW/LONDON (Reuters) - As OPEC's efforts to balance the oil market bear fruit, U.S. producers are reaping the benefits - and flooding Europe with a record amount of crude.

Russia paired with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries last year in cutting oil output jointly by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd), a deal they say has largely rebalanced the market and one that has helped elevate benchmark Brent prices close to four-year highs.

Now, the relatively high prices brought about by that pact, coupled with surging U.S. output, are making it harder to sell Russian, Nigerian and other oil grades in Europe, traders said.

"U.S. oil is on offer everywhere," said a trader with a Mediterranean refiner, who regularly buys Russian and Caspian Sea crude and has recently started purchasing U.S. oil. "It puts local grades under a lot of pressure."

U.S. oil output is expected to hit 10.7 million bpd this year, rivaling that of top producers Russia and Saudi Arabia.
Sertorio,

Hahaha, Russia and OPEC cut production. Price of oil goes up. The US sells more and benefits. At this rate, Putin cannot afford his empire.
I thought that Trump was going to create record low oil prices?

neverfail
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Re: US shale oil windfall merely a "stay of execution".

Post by neverfail » Mon Apr 23, 2018 8:04 pm

Once upon a time the USA was a surplus producer and net exporter of conventional crude. In the 1930's Depression years while domestic demand within the US had collapsed, the USA as closest surplus producer was quite content to supply Imperial Japan with the lion's share of its petroleum imports: notwithstanding that country's brutal, post-1937 invasion of China. For a period of around 18 months in 1942-43, when it became too dangerous to ship oil across the Indian Ocean from traditional suppliers in the Middle East, Australia's entire wartime need for crude oil came from wells in California.

And so on!

Then throughout the 1950's and well into the 1960's the USA transformed itself into a mass consumer society. One of the hallmarks of such an historically unprecedented regime of middle class affluence was the almost universal ownership of the family car. Increasingly, two, three and four car families made their appearance as mum got her auto for shopping excursions and junior his hot rod to impress the girls with.

Of course demand for refined petroleum products shot through the roof. Meantime, with oil prices kept intentionally low US oil explorers had little incentive to search for new oilfields. After about 1965 the USA transformed itself into a deficit producer and net importer of crude and each year the imported component in America's oil usage grew and grew.
.................................................................................................

Shale oil had returned the USA to something akin to a pre-1950's scenario so now for the first time in more than half a century the USA has regressed back into being an oil exporter. Exporting the crude (a finite, "fund" resource) as well as using it themselves is only going to deplete these windfall shale oil reserves even more swiftly than if all of the oil were retained in the US exclusively for local usage; not fix the problem of US energy self-sufficiency for all time.

Were I the US government I would be disinclined to treat this hydrocarbon windfall so free and easy.

Jim the Moron
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Re: Trump's Revenge: US floods EU with oil

Post by Jim the Moron » Mon Apr 23, 2018 8:47 pm

Most nations desire energy self-sufficiency, just as they seek food self-sufficiency. Few are able to achieve either. America is one of the lucky exceptions.

As it happens, fossil fuel resources in North America are going to be available for exploitation for decades to come. Maybe someday there may be viable alternatives. It is understood that folks not disposed to view America with favor are distressed by this reality.

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cassowary
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Re: US shale oil windfall merely a "stay of execution".

Post by cassowary » Tue Apr 24, 2018 2:05 am

neverfail wrote:
Mon Apr 23, 2018 8:04 pm
Once upon a time the USA was a surplus producer and net exporter of conventional crude. In the 1930's Depression years while domestic demand within the US had collapsed, the USA as closest surplus producer was quite content to supply Imperial Japan with the lion's share of its petroleum imports: notwithstanding that country's brutal, post-1937 invasion of China. For a period of around 18 months in 1942-43, when it became too dangerous to ship oil across the Indian Ocean from traditional suppliers in the Middle East, Australia's entire wartime need for crude oil came from wells in California.

And so on!

Then throughout the 1950's and well into the 1960's the USA transformed itself into a mass consumer society. One of the hallmarks of such an historically unprecedented regime of middle class affluence was the almost universal ownership of the family car. Increasingly, two, three and four car families made their appearance as mum got her auto for shopping excursions and junior his hot rod to impress the girls with.

Of course demand for refined petroleum products shot through the roof. Meantime, with oil prices kept intentionally low US oil explorers had little incentive to search for new oilfields. After about 1965 the USA transformed itself into a deficit producer and net importer of crude and each year the imported component in America's oil usage grew and grew.
.................................................................................................

Shale oil had returned the USA to something akin to a pre-1950's scenario so now for the first time in more than half a century the USA has regressed back into being an oil exporter. Exporting the crude (a finite, "fund" resource) as well as using it themselves is only going to deplete these windfall shale oil reserves even more swiftly than if all of the oil were retained in the US exclusively for local usage; not fix the problem of US energy self-sufficiency for all time.

Were I the US government I would be disinclined to treat this hydrocarbon windfall so free and easy.
Australia exports coal, another fossil fuel. Do you consider that to be regressive too?

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cassowary
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Re: Trump's Revenge: US floods EU with oil

Post by cassowary » Tue Apr 24, 2018 2:10 am

Milo wrote:
Mon Apr 23, 2018 5:42 pm
cassowary wrote:
Mon Apr 23, 2018 5:06 pm
MOSCOW/LONDON (Reuters) - As OPEC's efforts to balance the oil market bear fruit, U.S. producers are reaping the benefits - and flooding Europe with a record amount of crude.

Russia paired with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries last year in cutting oil output jointly by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd), a deal they say has largely rebalanced the market and one that has helped elevate benchmark Brent prices close to four-year highs.

Now, the relatively high prices brought about by that pact, coupled with surging U.S. output, are making it harder to sell Russian, Nigerian and other oil grades in Europe, traders said.

"U.S. oil is on offer everywhere," said a trader with a Mediterranean refiner, who regularly buys Russian and Caspian Sea crude and has recently started purchasing U.S. oil. "It puts local grades under a lot of pressure."

U.S. oil output is expected to hit 10.7 million bpd this year, rivaling that of top producers Russia and Saudi Arabia.
Sertorio,

Hahaha, Russia and OPEC cut production. Price of oil goes up. The US sells more and benefits. At this rate, Putin cannot afford his empire.
I thought that Trump was going to create record low oil prices?
That will happen when the Russians and OPEC get fed up with selling less while the US sells more oil.

neverfail
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Re: US shale oil windfall merely a "stay of execution".

Post by neverfail » Tue Apr 24, 2018 5:01 am

cassowary wrote:
Tue Apr 24, 2018 2:05 am
Australia exports coal, another fossil fuel. Do you consider that to be regressive too?
No comparison Cass.

Australia's domestic market for coal is too small to sustain a coal mining industry the size of our own. It is only the demand for our coal from overseas buyers that has permitted it to grow as large as it now is. Further, domestic demand here is shrinking, not expanding. Our iron and steel industry (and related metallurgical businesses) has downsized over the post quarter century and with that demand for hard coking coal has fallen. Thermal electric power plants are being closed and not being replaced so down goes demand for soft thermal coals. The overseas export markets are therefore our coal industry's salvation.

This seems to follow a broad pattern of development for virtually every basic resource industry developed in this country over its recorded history. Each has swiftly had to turn to the global market to ensure growth

Quite different to the US where oil (like all other basic resources) has always been developed in response to domestic demand and any exports came later when surpluses over and above local demand developed - the opposite to our Australian pattern of development.

neverfail
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Re: Trump's Revenge: US floods EU with oil

Post by neverfail » Tue Apr 24, 2018 5:24 am

Jim the Moron wrote:
Mon Apr 23, 2018 8:47 pm
Most nations desire energy self-sufficiency, just as they seek food self-sufficiency. Few are able to achieve either. America is one of the lucky exceptions.
Out here we do better than that Jim. We produce less than half our oil needs from our own wells but it does not seem to bother us. You see, receipts from our exports of coal and natural gas cancel out the cost of our oil imports several times over. One could even speak of an "hydrocarbons current account" in which Australia runs a massive surplus.

We are clever bastards. In South Africa they had to build a large, expensive plant to extract motor spirit from coal. But we convert coal into oil far more cheaply simply by exporting coal and using some of the foreign exchange receipts to pay for our oil imports. 8-)
Jim the Moron wrote:
Mon Apr 23, 2018 8:47 pm
As it happens, fossil fuel resources in North America are going to be available for exploitation for decades to come. Maybe someday there may be viable alternatives. It is understood that folks not disposed to view America with favor are distressed by this reality.
:o May God bless America and all who sail in her, Jim.

You might be unpleasantly surprised at how swiftly your oil reserves become depleted. The trouble with low prices is that it encourages more rapid usage (and waste).

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Sertorio
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Re: Trump's Revenge: US floods EU with oil

Post by Sertorio » Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:08 am

neverfail wrote:
Tue Apr 24, 2018 5:24 am
Jim the Moron wrote:
Mon Apr 23, 2018 8:47 pm
Most nations desire energy self-sufficiency, just as they seek food self-sufficiency. Few are able to achieve either. America is one of the lucky exceptions.
Out here we do better than that Jim. We produce less than half our oil needs from our own wells but it does not seem to bother us. You see, receipts from our exports of coal and natural gas cancel out the cost of our oil imports several times over. One could even speak of an "hydrocarbons current account" in which Australia runs a massive surplus.

We are clever bastards. In South Africa they had to build a large, expensive plant to extract motor spirit from coal. But we convert coal into oil far more cheaply simply by exporting coal and using some of the foreign exchange receipts to pay for our oil imports. 8-)
Jim the Moron wrote:
Mon Apr 23, 2018 8:47 pm
As it happens, fossil fuel resources in North America are going to be available for exploitation for decades to come. Maybe someday there may be viable alternatives. It is understood that folks not disposed to view America with favor are distressed by this reality.
:o May God bless America and all who sail in her, Jim.

You might be unpleasantly surprised at how swiftly your oil reserves become depleted. The trouble with low prices is that it encourages more rapid usage (and waste).
Just a thought:

Portugal does not produce oil and, for a long time, we hoped oil would be found somewhere on our territory, so that we could save so much of the money we spend importing oil. A couple of years ago it was discovered that we might have oil after all, and some licenses were issued for drilling, on and offshore, in order to check whether we have enough oil to make it worthwhile exploiting.

The interesting thing is that a national movement developed to stop such drilling being carried out, and it seems that it will be successful. Arguments? Eventual oil spillage might affect our tourism industry, one of our most rewarding activities, and destroy the environment. Also, we are on the way to becoming self-sufficient in energy, using only renewable sources. In the past month of March, we produced more energy from renewables than we spent, and by 2040, at the latest, all our energy needs will be satisfied by such sources.

So, there is an alternative to producing oil at any cost and whatever the risks. Cass is very happy about the US flooding the market with shale oil, in spite of the damage it causes to the environment. As we are less capitalistic minded in Portugal than Americans are, we feel it isn't worthwhile. So, no matter how much oil there may be hidden in our underground, we will stick to renewables. God bless Portugal... :D :D :D

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