Apparent Miliary coup begining in Brazil

Discussion of current events
Jim the Moron
Posts: 939
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 9:51 pm

Re: Apparent Miliary coup begining in Brazil

Post by Jim the Moron » Wed May 30, 2018 4:10 pm

"As are many other ventures in Brazil"
Yep. But there have been successes -


User avatar
Doc
Posts: 1941
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 7:09 pm
Location: Cradle To Grave

Re: Apparent Miliary coup begining in Brazil

Post by Doc » Wed May 30, 2018 4:43 pm

Jim the Moron wrote:
Wed May 30, 2018 4:10 pm
"As are many other ventures in Brazil"
Yep. But there have been successes -

Soy beans are bigger than coffee. The traffic jams in southern Brazil from trucks going to the ports are truly massive.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

User avatar
Sertorio
Posts: 1662
Joined: Fri Dec 16, 2016 3:12 am

Re: Apparent Miliary coup begining in Brazil

Post by Sertorio » Thu May 31, 2018 4:27 am

Doc wrote:
Wed May 30, 2018 2:46 pm
It seems no one want to take responsibility to run Brazil

****Best if read in its entirety****

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -s-leaders
Brazil Generals Say Thanks, But No Thanks to Military Takeover
By Bruce Douglas
, Simone Preissler Iglesias
, and Samy Adghirni
May 30, 2018, 9:17 AM EDT
My thoughts

After the gulf of Mexico oil spill Brazil was on the verge of a huge oil boom. With OIl exploration stopped in the gulf all the rigs were moved to Brazil to drill for oil there. Then 20 barrels of oil were split and Dilma basically told the oil companies to get their oil rigs out of Brazil.

The money from that oil would have paid for a lot of things Brazil has always been missing. Now Brazil is morphing into Venezuela People are getting desperate. I know a guy there that has a auto parts store. He went for a month without a single sale. His store is now closed. As are many other ventures in Brazil. The economy turned to ashes. With the exception of Lula's supporters no one has any faith left in any politician. Hence teh calls for a military coup. This is not going to end well no matter how it ends.
I don't know where you are getting your ideas from, but they are wrong. The following chart shows Brazil's oil production and exports. Also, it is expected oil production to sharply increase, due to major new discoveries in the so-called presalt.


Image

User avatar
Milo
Posts: 1331
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 10:14 pm

Re: Apparent Miliary coup begining in Brazil

Post by Milo » Thu May 31, 2018 1:08 pm

Well this is going about as fast as the Venezuelan revolution on the other thread!

neverfail
Posts: 2368
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2016 3:47 am

Re: Apparent Miliary coup begining in Brazil

Post by neverfail » Fri Jun 01, 2018 8:57 am

These Latino republics have long fascinated me because of their historical tendency to oscillate between forms of democracy (or more accurately, elected government) and much more authoritarian manifestatrions of government. As if they cannot make up their minds down there what they really want. I would be puzzled by it all were it not for the fact that back in Australia many years ago an immigrant friend of mine as much as "blew the whistle" for me as to what really goes on down there.

No, my friend does not originate from Brazil but from that country's small, spanish speaking neighbour to the south, Uruguay. Like Brazil this country has in living memory experienced years of military rule followed later by a restoration to elected government that has endured ever since. But never assume/presume that this is the end of the story.

My friend of yore (who I still remain in touch with) described it like this:

"one of the things I have learned during my years living in Australia is that the government here is under no obligation to rasie your living standards. What it is duty bound to do is (to the best of its ability) is created a favourable set of conditions, social and economic, that allow the greatest number of people possible to rasise their own living standards (under their own steam)".

(Australia has been even described as a "Benthemite democracy" because of the obvious utilitarian streak in how this country functions.)

(My friend continued on) "But in my country (Uruguay) we have two political parties, the Colorados (reds) and the Blancos (whites) and whover wins the election that governing partiy is expected, literally, to raise the living standards of its supporters. Meantime, nobody out there in the community is lifting a finger to raise the country's GDP.

Can I project my friends description of life in pre-coup Uruguay onto Brazil and most of the rest of Latin America by way of explanation. That is just what I am about to do.
................................................................................................................

The trouble with democracy in Latin America is that it has been (and will likely continue to be) populist in character. meantime, political parties and politicans make elaborate promises in order to buy votes and in the process raise hopes and expectations of their supprorters that once elected they are going to do wonderful things for them. The sky is the limit!

Of course the improvident policies that follow in order to satisfy supporters (ignoring the oftentimes petty-corruption within government ranks - presumably their reward for doing such a good job of taking from opponents in order to give to supporters) get the country into such strife that eventually a popular cry goes out "please, will somebody come along to save us from this hell we have gotten into?" When that cry of distress goes out that is usually the signal picked up by the country's top military brass that it is time to organise their coming military takeover to save the country from the consequences of the misdeeds of their civilian politicans.

Elected government in Latin America is not always but far too often seems to be irresponsible government. Anyone who believes that military coups in this region are driven by the ambition of generals and colonels to be rulers of their countries are not always accurate in their thinking. I now get the impression that (as in the case of the 1973 coup against Allende in Chile) the coup leaders are often moved by a sense of public responsibility - an urge to set things right as best they know how as nobody else in the country apparently can).
.................................................................................................................

I know that the current regime in Venezuela muddies the water by defining itself as "socialist" and "Bolivarian" but frankly the way that V H Chavez got himself elected into government and subsequently re-elected twice seems to conform to the Latino norm of populist democracy as described to me by my old Uruguayan friend. The subsequent forced "re-distribution of wealth" (i.e. the bilking of the country's oil revenues) comes across as nothing more than largescale pork-barreling of supporters that seems to be grist for the Latino political mill.

The Venezuelan voters were likely of no help in all of this as instead of behaving like responsible citizens particapating in the governance of their country, they acted more like a bunch of feudal underlings grateful to receive handouts from a wealthy patron. Venal voters far too willing to be corrupted by enticements offered by scoundrils.

The moral to this admittedly long winded polemic seems to be this: A corrupted democracy is in many ways worse than no democracy at all for the simple reason that it brings elected government itself into disrepute.
...............................................................................................................

Postscript for you doc: a country that has oil to sell and nothing much else going for it on the economic front is NOT a wealthy country.

User avatar
cassowary
Posts: 2193
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 11:30 pm

Re: Apparent Miliary coup begining in Brazil

Post by cassowary » Fri Jun 01, 2018 9:34 am

Neverfail,

The sins you describe in South America is present as well in N America, Europe and even in your Australia. It is a matter of degree. What you call populism sounds like Socialism to me. Promising people a better standard of living without telling them they have to work for it. LKY always told us that we had to work hard if we want to live better. It has been ingrained in us.

The only quick fix to raise people standard of living is to rob Peter to pay Paul. Thus you are able to raise the standard of living of your supporters quickly if only temporarily. As always, it won't work. The country will fall into poverty and you need a military dictatorship to restore order. It is the process I warned about in my book.

So it would seem that my ideas have much in common with your Uruguayan friend.

..........................................................................................................

One more point. I strongly suspect the politicians who promise these populist/socialist policies know that it will fail eventually. But by that time, they would have entrenched themselves in power and enriched themselves, making suckers of their voters.

User avatar
Sertorio
Posts: 1662
Joined: Fri Dec 16, 2016 3:12 am

Re: Apparent Miliary coup begining in Brazil

Post by Sertorio » Fri Jun 01, 2018 9:47 am

Neverfail,

I agree with enough of what you wrote not to feel it worthwhile to underline those few things with which I might disagree.

Nevertheless I think it worthwhile to draw your attention to an aspect far too many people seem to disregard. The main problem of Latin America is insufficient development on what schooling and knowledge are concerned. Far too many people are far too ignorant, which makes it almost impossible for them to understand the real problems of their countries, and thus to determine what the best solutions would be. They make electoral choices for all the bad reasons, and then they have to put up with the consequences of their bad choices. Never realizing that their choices were bad in the first place. Uruguayans, who are better educated than most South Americans, are therefore about to escape the traditional fate of Latin American countries. We had very much the same problem in Portugal, which explains our poor performance until shortly ago. It is only now (the last decade or so) that we have reached a level of schooling and access to reliable information to allow us to expect to become more like our more developed partners in Europe.

By the way, Brazil is NOT "a country that has oil to sell and nothing much else going for it on the economic front"...

User avatar
cassowary
Posts: 2193
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 11:30 pm

Re: Apparent Miliary coup begining in Brazil

Post by cassowary » Fri Jun 01, 2018 2:15 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Fri Jun 01, 2018 9:47 am
Neverfail,

I agree with enough of what you wrote not to feel it worthwhile to underline those few things with which I might disagree.

Nevertheless I think it worthwhile to draw your attention to an aspect far too many people seem to disregard. The main problem of Latin America is insufficient development on what schooling and knowledge are concerned. Far too many people are far too ignorant, which makes it almost impossible for them to understand the real problems of their countries, and thus to determine what the best solutions would be. They make electoral choices for all the bad reasons, and then they have to put up with the consequences of their bad choices. Never realizing that their choices were bad in the first place. Uruguayans, who are better educated than most South Americans, are therefore about to escape the traditional fate of Latin American countries. We had very much the same problem in Portugal, which explains our poor performance until shortly ago. It is only now (the last decade or so) that we have reached a level of schooling and access to reliable information to allow us to expect to become more like our more developed partners in Europe.

By the way, Brazil is NOT "a country that has oil to sell and nothing much else going for it on the economic front"...
Does that mean that Portugal has now embraced capitalism?

User avatar
Doc
Posts: 1941
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 7:09 pm
Location: Cradle To Grave

Re: Apparent Miliary coup begining in Brazil

Post by Doc » Fri Jun 01, 2018 10:33 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Thu May 31, 2018 4:27 am
Doc wrote:
Wed May 30, 2018 2:46 pm
It seems no one want to take responsibility to run Brazil

****Best if read in its entirety****

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -s-leaders
Brazil Generals Say Thanks, But No Thanks to Military Takeover
By Bruce Douglas
, Simone Preissler Iglesias
, and Samy Adghirni
May 30, 2018, 9:17 AM EDT
My thoughts

After the gulf of Mexico oil spill Brazil was on the verge of a huge oil boom. With OIl exploration stopped in the gulf all the rigs were moved to Brazil to drill for oil there. Then 20 barrels of oil were split and Dilma basically told the oil companies to get their oil rigs out of Brazil.

The money from that oil would have paid for a lot of things Brazil has always been missing. Now Brazil is morphing into Venezuela People are getting desperate. I know a guy there that has a auto parts store. He went for a month without a single sale. His store is now closed. As are many other ventures in Brazil. The economy turned to ashes. With the exception of Lula's supporters no one has any faith left in any politician. Hence teh calls for a military coup. This is not going to end well no matter how it ends.
I don't know where you are getting your ideas from, but they are wrong. The following chart shows Brazil's oil production and exports. Also, it is expected oil production to sharply increase, due to major new discoveries in the so-called presalt.


Image
The chart for production is flat from the 2010 BP gulf spill until 2014. It went up after that but nothing like it would have in dollars earned 2010 to 2014. Also Production is now going down and exports are up. Meaning the economy is so wreaked by socialists Lula and Dilma that people cannot afford to buy as much.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

User avatar
Doc
Posts: 1941
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 7:09 pm
Location: Cradle To Grave

Re: Apparent Miliary coup begining in Brazil

Post by Doc » Fri Jun 01, 2018 10:34 pm

Milo wrote:
Thu May 31, 2018 1:08 pm
Well this is going about as fast as the Venezuelan revolution on the other thread!
You mean like Peak oil and the dangers of corn syrup?
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

Post Reply