Trump cannot possibly 'win' this trade war!

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Milo
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Re: Trump cannot possibly 'win' this trade war!

Post by Milo » Tue Apr 03, 2018 1:56 pm

I find the focus on this thread, and in discourse in general, is typically on apocalyptic scenarios that will simply never happen, coupled with the assumption that somehow industries that belch smoke and make a lot of noise are somehow of higher value than others.

What has actually happened is the response to tariffs was tariffs from the other side, bringing markets down and likely triggering inflation, on nearly all goods and services, in the longer run.

IOW, it's not whether anyone can win this trade war or not but whether the fight is worth it.

IOOW, maybe we let these countries cheat, because the price of honesty is just too high.

IOOOW, the 'winner' is the one with the most money, even if the other side gets a lot of money too.

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Sertorio
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Re: Trump cannot possibly 'win' this trade war!

Post by Sertorio » Tue Apr 03, 2018 5:04 pm

Milo wrote:
Tue Apr 03, 2018 1:56 pm
I find the focus on this thread, and in discourse in general, is typically on apocalyptic scenarios that will simply never happen, coupled with the assumption that somehow industries that belch smoke and make a lot of noise are somehow of higher value than others.

What has actually happened is the response to tariffs was tariffs from the other side, bringing markets down and likely triggering inflation, on nearly all goods and services, in the longer run.

IOW, it's not whether anyone can win this trade war or not but whether the fight is worth it.

IOOW, maybe we let these countries cheat, because the price of honesty is just too high.

IOOOW, the 'winner' is the one with the most money, even if the other side gets a lot of money too.
With a few exceptions, countries cannot live on services alone. They need a productive basis, both on the primary and the secundary sectors, to support the services sector. Outsourcing most of the productive sectors may seem like a good idea, based on lower production costs. But a balance must be kept. In my opinion, the best division, as far as GDP is concerned, should be 5 to 7% on the primary sector, 30 to 35% on the secundary sector, and the remainder on the services sector. If that means some form of partial protectionism, so be it. As such, maybe Trump is right about his protectionist policies.

neverfail
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Re: "It's an ill wind that blows nobody any good" - words of wisdom from my Irish grandma.

Post by neverfail » Tue Apr 03, 2018 6:45 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Tue Apr 03, 2018 5:04 pm

..........maybe Trump is right about his protectionist policies.
In reprisal for Trump's tariffs on aluminum and steel, the PRC has just raised tariffs on US pork and wine. What a business opportunity for alternative suppliers, such as my country, to increase our market share in the PRC. :D :D

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cassowary
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Re: "It's an ill wind that blows nobody any good" - words of wisdom from my Irish grandma.

Post by cassowary » Thu Apr 05, 2018 1:05 am

neverfail wrote:
Tue Apr 03, 2018 6:45 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Tue Apr 03, 2018 5:04 pm

..........maybe Trump is right about his protectionist policies.
In reprisal for Trump's tariffs on aluminum and steel, the PRC has just raised tariffs on US pork and wine. What a business opportunity for alternative suppliers, such as my country, to increase our market share in the PRC. :D :D
That is true. But in the short run, Australlia cannot increase its supply of pork and wine. So it may not make much of a difference. It also means that you will be selling less elsewhere, say to Japan. Japan will now buy more American pork and wine.

neverfail
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Re: "It's an ill wind that blows nobody any good" - words of wisdom from my Irish grandma.

Post by neverfail » Thu Apr 05, 2018 6:02 pm

cassowary wrote:
Thu Apr 05, 2018 1:05 am
neverfail wrote:
Tue Apr 03, 2018 6:45 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Tue Apr 03, 2018 5:04 pm

..........maybe Trump is right about his protectionist policies.
In reprisal for Trump's tariffs on aluminum and steel, the PRC has just raised tariffs on US pork and wine. What a business opportunity for alternative suppliers, such as my country, to increase our market share in the PRC. :D :D
That is true. But in the short run, Australlia cannot increase its supply of pork and wine. So it may not make much of a difference. It also means that you will be selling less elsewhere, say to Japan. Japan will now buy more American pork and wine.
:idea: I can seed your point Cass.

Despite that, please always bear in mind that the PRC has so far given Australia a far better deal in international trade than the USA has so far done or is ever likely to. :(

neverfail
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Re: China is so confident it can beat Trump in a trade war.

Post by neverfail » Thu Apr 05, 2018 6:29 pm

Nothing to do with the respective strength of the two economies but a lot to do with political will. Here it seems that Xi Jinping might hold the "trump" :) card.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-amer ... 4z81s.html

neverfail
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Re: umm...as I tried to point out earlier..

Post by neverfail » Mon Apr 09, 2018 6:06 am

China tiptoes toward massive retaliation in trade war

A drawback in purchases – or a fire-sale – of US Treasuries could devastate the global economy if China presses the red button

http://www.atimes.com/article/china-tip ... trade-war/

Read and be warned!

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cassowary
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Re: Trump cannot possibly 'win' this trade war!

Post by cassowary » Mon Apr 09, 2018 3:17 pm

Nah. If China dumps the T bonds, others will be happy to buy. Sure prices will drop quickly but will also bounce back quickly making China look stupid.

neverfail
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Re: Trump cannot possibly 'win' this trade war!

Post by neverfail » Mon Apr 09, 2018 7:19 pm

cassowary wrote:
Mon Apr 09, 2018 3:17 pm
Nah. If China dumps the T bonds, others will be happy to buy. Sure prices will drop quickly but will also bounce back quickly making China look stupid.
I actually hope that you are right Cass. However, I reserve judgement in that fiscally the USA is currently a house of cards waiting to be blown over.

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Doc
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Re: Trump cannot possibly 'win' this trade war!

Post by Doc » Mon Apr 09, 2018 11:13 pm

China just offered to drop its tariffs not T-bonds.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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