Trump cannot possibly 'win' this trade war!

Discussion of current events
User avatar
Sertorio
Posts: 1449
Joined: Fri Dec 16, 2016 3:12 am

Re: Trump cannot possibly 'win' this trade war!

Post by Sertorio » Tue Mar 27, 2018 4:21 pm

Doc wrote:
Tue Mar 27, 2018 1:51 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Tue Mar 27, 2018 7:54 am
cassowary wrote:
Tue Mar 27, 2018 7:29 am
Those Sunnis in the urban areas like Damascus where Assad is in control are in Assad's army. But those in the rural areas far from the capital are fighting against Assad. They do not have any love for Assad. One the one hand, the Alawite controlled army see them as potential fifth columnists. On the other the rural Sunnis see them as traitors. The top ranks are mostly Alawites though the Defense minister is Sunni. Its just for show. He does not have real power.
Where do you get all that?... In the CNN?...
Sertorio it is well known and for a very long time that Sunnis are in the majority in Syria and Assad is not a Sunni. This is why the gulf states were are so interested in deposing him.
What is the point you are trying to make? Syria has a secular regime and most people do not care about their leader's religion. If the gulf states were interested in deposing al-Assad it wasn't because of his religion, but because they need their natural gas pipelines running through Syria and they couldn't get from al-Assad the conditions they wanted to have. You make up the most extraordinary arguments to try and give substance to your biased opinions.

User avatar
cassowary
Posts: 1919
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 11:30 pm

Re: Trump cannot possibly 'win' this trade war!

Post by cassowary » Tue Mar 27, 2018 4:25 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Tue Mar 27, 2018 7:54 am
cassowary wrote:
Tue Mar 27, 2018 7:29 am
Those Sunnis in the urban areas like Damascus where Assad is in control are in Assad's army. But those in the rural areas far from the capital are fighting against Assad. They do not have any love for Assad. One the one hand, the Alawite controlled army see them as potential fifth columnists. On the other the rural Sunnis see them as traitors. The top ranks are mostly Alawites though the Defense minister is Sunni. Its just for show. He does not have real power.
Where do you get all that?... In the CNN?...
http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/11/05/ass ... ers-syria/

neverfail
Posts: 1993
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2016 3:47 am

Re: Trump cannot possibly 'win' this trade war!

Post by neverfail » Tue Mar 27, 2018 6:58 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Tue Mar 27, 2018 4:21 pm

What is the point you are trying to make? Syria has a secular regime and most people do not care about their leader's religion. If the gulf states were interested in deposing al-Assad it wasn't because of his religion, but because they need their natural gas pipelines running through Syria and they couldn't get from al-Assad the conditions they wanted to have. You make up the most extraordinary arguments to try and give substance to your biased opinions.
OFFICIALLY, Syria has a secular (Baath) regime in government; but have you not learned by now that what is official and what it real are frequently two very different, even diametrically opposed, things?

Cassowary is right Sertorio. Syria is around 75% Sunni Muslim so the Assad hereditary dynasty of dictators (royal family in all but name?) seems to have based its fortunes on a formerly stable coalition of interested non-Sunni Moslem communities including his own Alawites; Shia Muslims; Christians and Druze.

Please take seriously that religious allegiances are still a very live issue in the Middle East (even though they might sound old fashoined/passe' as far as you are concerned). You can also dispense with your fantasies about American plots to control the Middle East and its oil: for underlying the conflict (and the one in Yemen too) is a latter-day recrudescence of the centuries old rivalry/conflict between the Shia' and Sunni wings of Islam - now building up towards the final life-and-death showdown.

User avatar
cassowary
Posts: 1919
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 11:30 pm

Re: Trump cannot possibly 'win' this trade war!

Post by cassowary » Tue Mar 27, 2018 8:56 pm

Sertorio,

Neverfail is right. It is like the 30 years war, Islam style. Perhaps you are too secular to understand what they are fighting about. But that is not what I am trying to drive at.

All I am saying is that while the Americans, whom you rail against, are protecting Europe from Russia in accordance to the wishes of most Europeans, Russians are protecting the Assad regime likely against the wishes of most Syrians.

Remember, Europe consists of democracies while Assad is a dictator. Any European country who does not wish American troops on their soil can simply ask them to leave. This is proven in France (hat tip to Alexis) and the Philippines. Both countries felt they no longer needed American protection and so asked them to leave. So if the Europeans wish the Americans to leave, all they have to do is to vote in politicians who think like you.

This is not the case in Syria. We don't know for sure what the Syrians want. Do they want Assad to be their president and thus want the Russians to protect him? We don't know because there are no free and fair elections. But my very reasonable guess, based on the very solid fact that 75% of the people are Sunnis, that Assad will not be elected in a free and fair election. So this means that they do not want Russians in Syria to keep him in power.

User avatar
cassowary
Posts: 1919
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 11:30 pm

Why the US will win the trade war with China

Post by cassowary » Tue Mar 27, 2018 9:19 pm

Why China will win a trade war with Trump ... by Gordon Chang

Chang is wrong. In a trade war, nobody wins. But one side will lose more - in this case, China. It is simple mathematics. China exports much more to the US than the other way around. So if trade between the two drops to zero, China's exports will fall much more than the US exports.

I suppose Chang means that the side that loses fewer exports than the other is the winner. Here are some excerpts from the link:
Experts, believing China holds more leverage, ignore important realities. First, that country is growing more dependent on access to the American market. In 2016, a stunning 68.0 percent of China’s overall merchandise trade surplus related to sales to the U.S. In 2017, that figure increased to 88.8 percent. Trade-surplus countries, as history shows, generally suffer more in trade wars.
That is what I said and it is common sense. So Trump has leverage.

S
econd, the American economy is far bigger than the Chinese one. Beijing claimed gross domestic product of $12.84 trillion in 2017. America’s economy, by way of contrast, clocked in at $19.39 trillion last year.

China’s GDP numbers are surely overstated because, especially during the last two years, the country’s growth was less than half that reported by the official National Bureau of Statistics. America’s larger economy is, at the moment, in fact growing at a faster clip than China’s.
That could be true. Remember what I said many times before. The weakness of a dictatorship is that the top leaders are the last to know the truth. Xi targets the economy to grow at 6% and his minions will report back, "We achieved 6% growth, lao pan". That means "boss". It reminds me of Mao. Mao ordered grain production of say X tons for a province or region. The guy in charge of that province reported back X + y tons. Mao said, "well done". Those who reported X-Y tons because Socialism did not work got sent to the work camps as punishment.

Jim the Moron
Posts: 844
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 9:51 pm

Re: Trump cannot possibly 'win' this trade war!

Post by Jim the Moron » Wed Mar 28, 2018 2:56 am

The premise of this thread is that there will be a "trade war." Disagreements among trading partners are commonplace. No "war" on the horizon. False premise.

Yr obt svt
Jim the Moron

neverfail
Posts: 1993
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2016 3:47 am

Re: Trump cannot possibly 'win' this trade war!

Post by neverfail » Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:02 am

cassowary wrote:
Tue Mar 27, 2018 8:56 pm


This is not the case in Syria. We don't know for sure what the Syrians want. Do they want Assad to be their president and thus want the Russians to protect him? We don't know because there are no free and fair elections. But my very reasonable guess, based on the very solid fact that 75% of the people are Sunnis, that Assad will not be elected in a free and fair election. So this means that they do not want Russians in Syria to keep him in power.
Do you really believe that if in the very unlikely event that Syria had a free and fair election permitting a government that reflected Sunni interests to be duly elected that a free and tolerant society would be the consequence?

neverfail
Posts: 1993
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2016 3:47 am

Re: America's Achilles heel?

Post by neverfail » Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:05 am

cassowary wrote:
Tue Mar 27, 2018 9:19 pm
Why China will win a trade war with Trump ... by Gordon Chang

Chang is wrong. In a trade war, nobody wins. But one side will lose more - in this case, China. It is simple mathematics. China exports much more to the US than the other way around. So if trade between the two drops to zero, China's exports will fall much more than the US exports.

Yeah; but do not lose sight of the fact that while the USA is massively in debt to China, the latter owes the USA not even one dollar.

User avatar
cassowary
Posts: 1919
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 11:30 pm

Re: America's Achilles heel?

Post by cassowary » Wed Mar 28, 2018 4:40 am

neverfail wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:05 am
cassowary wrote:
Tue Mar 27, 2018 9:19 pm
Why China will win a trade war with Trump ... by Gordon Chang

Chang is wrong. In a trade war, nobody wins. But one side will lose more - in this case, China. It is simple mathematics. China exports much more to the US than the other way around. So if trade between the two drops to zero, China's exports will fall much more than the US exports.

Yeah; but do not lose sight of the fact that while the USA is massively in debt to China, the latter owes the USA not even one dollar.
J Paul Getty said, "When you owe the bank $100, it's your problem. But when you owe the bank $100 million, its the bank's problem."

Something like that applies here.

If China wants to sell all their US debt and bring it back to China, the US$ will decline, meaning that China will make a loss on their investment in government bonds. Not only that, it also means that China's exports to the US will plunge. Trump does not need sanctions.

If China goes to war with the US, all that money is confiscated.

neverfail
Posts: 1993
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2016 3:47 am

Re: America's Achilles heel?

Post by neverfail » Wed Mar 28, 2018 6:24 pm

cassowary wrote:
Tue Mar 27, 2018 9:19 pm
Why China will win a trade war with Trump ... by Gordon Chang

Chang is wrong. In a trade war, nobody wins. But one side will lose more - in this case, China. It is simple mathematics. China exports much more to the US than the other way around. So if trade between the two drops to zero, China's exports will fall much more than the US exports.

neverfail wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:05 am
Yeah; but do not lose sight of the fact that while the USA is massively in debt to China, the latter owes the USA not even one dollar.
cassowary wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 4:40 am
J Paul Getty said, "When you owe the bank $100, it's your problem. But when you owe the bank $100 million, its the bank's problem."
Trump inaugurated this trade war; not the PRC.

I doubt whether this idiot can comprehend the potential Pandora's box he has opened.

I have heard that now hackneyed old quote from J. Paul Getty time and again. The case I put to you in an earlier post is that, whilst the PRC has so far responded with restraint, as a last resort the PRC government might not value its holdings in US treasury bonds enough to count on redeeming them all at face value so much as an instrument to bring down the US from within if changed circumstances require that this needs to be done in order to save face.

Bear in mind that Chinese society still remembers their century of humiliation at the hands of foreign, mainly Western, powers with rancor. Do you think that a now unified, newly confident sovereign entity like that would meekly give in to American (or any other Western) bullying?

"...But when you owe the bank $100 million, its the bank's problem."?? Yes, especially when you are in the position to inaugurate a fiscal panic big enough to send the bank bankrupt.

Post Reply