The Russian Economy is imploding

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cassowary
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The Russian Economy is imploding

Post by cassowary » Sat Jul 30, 2022 2:34 am

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/22/ru ... -business/
Far from being ineffective or disappointing, as many have argued, international sanctions and voluntary business retreats have exerted a devastating effect over Russia’s economy. The deteriorating economy has served as a powerful if underappreciated complement to the deteriorating political landscape facing Putin.
The Imp :D

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Sertorio
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Re: The Russian Economy is imploding

Post by Sertorio » Sat Jul 30, 2022 2:41 am

cassowary wrote:
Sat Jul 30, 2022 2:34 am
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/22/ru ... -business/
Far from being ineffective or disappointing, as many have argued, international sanctions and voluntary business retreats have exerted a devastating effect over Russia’s economy. The deteriorating economy has served as a powerful if underappreciated complement to the deteriorating political landscape facing Putin.
This and Russia's coming military defeat in the Ukraine spells doom for Russia... :D

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cassowary
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Re: The Russian Economy is imploding

Post by cassowary » Sat Jul 30, 2022 5:47 am

Sertorio wrote:
Sat Jul 30, 2022 2:41 am
cassowary wrote:
Sat Jul 30, 2022 2:34 am
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/22/ru ... -business/
Far from being ineffective or disappointing, as many have argued, international sanctions and voluntary business retreats have exerted a devastating effect over Russia’s economy. The deteriorating economy has served as a powerful if underappreciated complement to the deteriorating political landscape facing Putin.
This and Russia's coming military defeat in the Ukraine spells doom for Russia... :D
I am not sure if Russia will be defeated on the battle field. But I think the article is correct in that the Russian economy is in bad shape.
The Imp :D

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Sertorio
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Re: The Russian Economy is imploding

Post by Sertorio » Sat Jul 30, 2022 6:42 am

cassowary wrote:
Sat Jul 30, 2022 5:47 am
Sertorio wrote:
Sat Jul 30, 2022 2:41 am
cassowary wrote:
Sat Jul 30, 2022 2:34 am
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/22/ru ... -business/
Far from being ineffective or disappointing, as many have argued, international sanctions and voluntary business retreats have exerted a devastating effect over Russia’s economy. The deteriorating economy has served as a powerful if underappreciated complement to the deteriorating political landscape facing Putin.
This and Russia's coming military defeat in the Ukraine spells doom for Russia... :D
I am not sure if Russia will be defeated on the battle field. But I think the article is correct in that the Russian economy is in bad shape.
Economic sanctions will allow Russia to correct some unnecessary unbalances in its economy. It will take some time but in the end Russia's economy will be a lot stronger and more diversified. A country which is rich in energy and natural resources, which can easily feed its people and has a very developed science and engineering environment will always overcome any momentary problems. Stupid people in the West who have always underestimated the Russian people thought they could bring Russia to its knees, but that was the result of their ignorance and arrogance. Only idiots will be surprised by Russian resilience.

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neverfail
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Re: The Russian Economy is imploding

Post by neverfail » Sat Jul 30, 2022 7:19 am

cassowary wrote:
Sat Jul 30, 2022 5:47 am
I am not sure if Russia will be defeated on the battle field. But I think the article is correct in that the Russian economy is in bad shape.
Interestingly enough I was talking with a group of men at a social event tonight which included a recently retired ship's navigator who has previously worked on offshore oil exploration vessels including one that had worked in Australian waters. From his conversation I summed up that he knew the oil business rather well. The group conversation turned at one point to Russia, the Ukraine War and sanctions.

Our informant revealed that most of Russia's oil and gas reserves were in sub-arctic locations and the well pipes through the oil came up from the depths run through permafrost. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 in the chaos that came after a lot of Russian oil field workers walked off the job: no one was paying them. The oil in the pipes, no longer flowing, froze solid. "Once the oil freezes it cannot be made to flow again. The wells have to be re-drilled".

"A lot of Western oil expertise that was loaned to Russia in the following years were devoted to re-drilling the wells and it took over a decade to complete the job."

Our informant then went on to reveal (info gleaned from the global oil business insider grapevine?) that with currently diminished export opportunities because of the invasion the Russians have had to close down production from quite a number of their wells and the immobile oil has once again frozen inside the pipes blocking them permanently. 'Even after the war ends and sanctions are removed Russia's capacity to produce exportable quantities of oil will be diminished to the point where as an oil exporting country Russia will be barely a shadow of its old self. The wells will once more need to be re-drilled.'

Cass, I have had neither the time nor the means to verify this as I have only just arrived home from the social gathering. So you may be inclined to treat this as rumour. Yet despite this you will probably agree that the scenario described by that former ship's navigator and oil exploration worker makes sense.

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Milo
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Re: The Russian Economy is imploding

Post by Milo » Sat Jul 30, 2022 8:08 am

neverfail wrote:
Sat Jul 30, 2022 7:19 am
cassowary wrote:
Sat Jul 30, 2022 5:47 am
I am not sure if Russia will be defeated on the battle field. But I think the article is correct in that the Russian economy is in bad shape.
Interestingly enough I was talking with a group of men at a social event tonight which included a recently retired ship's navigator who has previously worked on offshore oil exploration vessels including one that had worked in Australian waters. From his conversation I summed up that he knew the oil business rather well. The group conversation turned at one point to Russia, the Ukraine War and sanctions.

Our informant revealed that most of Russia's oil and gas reserves were in sub-arctic locations and the well pipes through the oil came up from the depths run through permafrost. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 in the chaos that came after a lot of Russian oil field workers walked off the job: no one was paying them. The oil in the pipes, no longer flowing, froze solid. "Once the oil freezes it cannot be made to flow again. The wells have to be re-drilled".

"A lot of Western oil expertise that was loaned to Russia in the following years were devoted to re-drilling the wells and it took over a decade to complete the job."

Our informant then went on to reveal (info gleaned from the global oil business insider grapevine?) that with currently diminished export opportunities because of the invasion the Russians have had to close down production from quite a number of their wells and the immobile oil has once again frozen inside the pipes blocking them permanently. 'Even after the war ends and sanctions are removed Russia's capacity to produce exportable quantities of oil will be diminished to the point where as an oil exporting country Russia will be barely a shadow of its old self. The wells will once more need to be re-drilled.'

Cass, I have had neither the time nor the means to verify this as I have only just arrived home from the social gathering. So you may be inclined to treat this as rumour. Yet despite this you will probably agree that the scenario described by that former ship's navigator and oil exploration worker makes sense.
I have never worked in oil but I've been around it all my life. I know lots of Canadian firms were consulting in Russia. I highly doubt that Russia can develop those that sort of technology on their own. Even if they did, it would take so long to deploy that it would do little good by the time it was deployed.

Canada is starting to take up the slack created by sanctions against Russia oil. In the long run, I think countries will appreciate dealing with a democracy with proper law instead of with a bunch of Russian gangsters, and Canada will see some large, permanent gains in the oil export sphere.

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Sertorio
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Re: The Russian Economy is imploding

Post by Sertorio » Sat Jul 30, 2022 8:52 am

Milo wrote:
Sat Jul 30, 2022 8:08 am

Canada is starting to take up the slack created by sanctions against Russia oil. In the long run, I think countries will appreciate dealing with a democracy with proper law instead of with a bunch of Russian gangsters, and Canada will see some large, permanent gains in the oil export sphere.
You may not realize it, but you talk about Russians as lots of people - including Germans - talked about Jews, a notoriously inferior and criminal people...

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Milo
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Re: The Russian Economy is imploding

Post by Milo » Sat Jul 30, 2022 8:55 am

Sertorio wrote:
Sat Jul 30, 2022 8:52 am
Milo wrote:
Sat Jul 30, 2022 8:08 am

Canada is starting to take up the slack created by sanctions against Russia oil. In the long run, I think countries will appreciate dealing with a democracy with proper law instead of with a bunch of Russian gangsters, and Canada will see some large, permanent gains in the oil export sphere.
You may not realize it, but you talk about Russians as lots of people - including Germans - talked about Jews, a notoriously inferior and criminal people...
Except Russia being thoroughly corrupt is a matter of fact, as is Canada’s transparency and accountability.

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Sertorio
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Re: The Russian Economy is imploding

Post by Sertorio » Sat Jul 30, 2022 8:57 am

Milo wrote:
Sat Jul 30, 2022 8:55 am
Sertorio wrote:
Sat Jul 30, 2022 8:52 am
Milo wrote:
Sat Jul 30, 2022 8:08 am

Canada is starting to take up the slack created by sanctions against Russia oil. In the long run, I think countries will appreciate dealing with a democracy with proper law instead of with a bunch of Russian gangsters, and Canada will see some large, permanent gains in the oil export sphere.
You may not realize it, but you talk about Russians as lots of people - including Germans - talked about Jews, a notoriously inferior and criminal people...
Except Russia being thoroughly corrupt is a matter of fact, as is Canada’s transparency and accountability.
To Nazis, Jews being thoroughly corrupt was a matter of fact... Sieg Heil!...

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Sertorio
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Re: The Russian Economy is imploding

Post by Sertorio » Sat Jul 30, 2022 9:28 am

https://www.rt.com/russia/559905-norway ... de-hatred/

A video posted by news outlet Mash shows Elisabeth Ellingsen, a Norwegian consul stationed in the northern Russian city of Murmansk, being rude with the staff at a Russian hotel and swearing. “I hate Russians,” Ellingsen says in English. “You know, I’m used to [staying in] clean rooms. I’m from Scandinavia, not some Russian woman.”
This will have consequences...

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