400 million people put at risk of starvation due to Putin blockading the port of Odessa

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Doc
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400 million people put at risk of starvation due to Putin blockading the port of Odessa

Post by Doc » Fri Jul 01, 2022 4:04 pm

Not the rich countries but the poor countries of the ME and Africa.

I guess that is just the price we will have to pay to up hold the liberal world order

“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Re: 400 million people put at risk of starvation due to Putin blockading the port of Odessa

Post by neverfail » Fri Jul 01, 2022 9:19 pm

Amazing place Ukraine!

Due to Stalin's collectivisation program there was mass starvation of millions there in the 1930's; despite their farmers reputedly growing enough food to feed twice Ukraine's then population. Stalin was removing the grain produced and dumping it on the world market at rock-bottom Great Depression era prices to raise the hard currency needed to pay for his ambitious industrialisation projects, which required imports of equipment. Then from the 1960s on Soviet buyers regularly bid for wheat on the world's futures exchanges because though dubbed "the granary of the USSR" Ukraine's production even combined with the Russian harvest could not feed the Soviet Union. Some years when the harvest was especially bad I believe the USSR became the World's biggest single cereal grains importer.

But now with a population of fewer than 50 million Ukraine feeds a population globally estimated to be around 400 million. Something must have happened in the interim three decades separating the dissolution of the Soviet Union from today. For it stands to reason (does it not?) that based on the country's natural endowment this country always had the potential to feed 400 million plus but earlier could not realise it.

(I mean; apart from the "market" end of the business. There are now more countries, especially in the Middle East and Africa, whose populations have since exceeded their food producing potential.)

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Re: 400 million people put at risk of starvation due to Putin blockading the port of Odessa

Post by Doc » Fri Jul 01, 2022 9:29 pm

neverfail wrote:
Fri Jul 01, 2022 9:19 pm
Amazing place Ukraine!

Due to Stalin's collectivisation program there was mass starvation of millions there in the 1930's; despite their farmers reputedly growing enough food to feed twice Ukraine's then population. Stalin was removing the grain produced and dumping it on the world market at rock-bottom Great Depression era prices to raise the hard currency needed to pay for his ambitious industrialisation projects, which required imports of equipment. Then from the 1960s on Soviet buyers regularly bid for wheat on the world's futures exchanges because though dubbed "the granary of the USSR" Ukraine's production even combined with the Russian harvest could not feed the Soviet Union. Some years when the harvest was especially bad I believe the USSR became the World's biggest single cereal grains importer.

But now with a population of fewer than 50 million Ukraine feeds a population globally estimated to be around 400 million. Something must have happened in the interim three decades separating the dissolution of the Soviet Union from today. For it stands to reason (does it not?) that based on the country's natural endowment this country always had the potential to feed 400 million plus but earlier could not realise it.

(I mean; apart from the "market" end of the business. There are now more countries, especially in the Middle East and Africa, whose populations have since exceeded their food producing potential.)
Stalin had it in for the Ukrainian farmers in the 20's and 30's because they were very hostile to his collective farming model. Zimbabwe was once able to feed itself until Mugabe forced the farmers off their land and divided it among his friends.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Re: 400 million people put at risk of starvation due to Putin blockading the port of Odessa

Post by neverfail » Fri Jul 01, 2022 10:55 pm

Doc wrote:
Fri Jul 01, 2022 9:29 pm
Stalin had it in for the Ukrainian farmers in the 20's and 30's because they were very hostile to his collective farming model. Zimbabwe was once able to feed itself until Mugabe forced the farmers off their land and divided it among his friends.
So true, Doc. Yet the situation was a bit more complicated than that.

(I once gained this insight from a Zimbabwean internet contact living in exile in London. He belonged to Wa-Shona ethnicity - the same one as Robert Mugabe himself sprang from. In African politics ethnic allegiance apparently counts for a lot more than ideology.)

Back during the 1965 to 1980 insurgent struggle to bring white minority rule to an end Mugabe rallied enough of his fellow Shona to become guerilla fighters by promising them land after he came to power. Bear in mind that a lot of the land he promised after disposing the white farmers of theirs had before British colonisation began in the 1890's been traditional Shona tribal land anyhow and the colonisers made room for the incoming settler-farmers by pushing the former Shona occupants into infertile hill country to subsist on reservations there.

After 1980 and the settlement that transformed Zimbabwe from white minority rule to black minority rule the ZANU war veterans waited patiently for their promised reward but time passed and nothing happened. So groups of them threatened to take to the jungle again and this time wage insurgency war against Mugabe. It would of course have split the ZANU movement and these were seasoned veterans who knew how to wage insurgency war. Robert Mugabe had to do something so the dispossession of the white farmers was a desperation measure to avert an oncoming civil war among black Zimbabweans.

Some ZANU war veterans were awarded land but generally these were blocks too small to successfully carry out commercial farming. In any case I believe that few aspired to follow in the footsteps of the former white proprietors and venture into commercial farming for which they as a rule lacked the required knowhow. What most wanted was to have the means to practise labour-intensive traditional African subsistence farming of a sort familiar to them from their background on the tribal reserves. And that, Doc, seems to have been the biggest single reason why farm productivity collapsed and this former "food bowl" of southern Africa turned into a regional basket case - with consequences that I believe you are well aware of.

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Re: 400 million people put at risk of starvation due to Putin blockading the port of Odessa

Post by Doc » Sat Jul 02, 2022 12:55 pm

neverfail wrote:
Fri Jul 01, 2022 10:55 pm
Doc wrote:
Fri Jul 01, 2022 9:29 pm
Stalin had it in for the Ukrainian farmers in the 20's and 30's because they were very hostile to his collective farming model. Zimbabwe was once able to feed itself until Mugabe forced the farmers off their land and divided it among his friends.
So true, Doc. Yet the situation was a bit more complicated than that.

(I once gained this insight from a Zimbabwean internet contact living in exile in London. He belonged to Wa-Shona ethnicity - the same one as Robert Mugabe himself sprang from. In African politics ethnic allegiance apparently counts for a lot more than ideology.)

Back during the 1965 to 1980 insurgent struggle to bring white minority rule to an end Mugabe rallied enough of his fellow Shona to become guerilla fighters by promising them land after he came to power. Bear in mind that a lot of the land he promised after disposing the white farmers of theirs had before British colonisation began in the 1890's been traditional Shona tribal land anyhow and the colonisers made room for the incoming settler-farmers by pushing the former Shona occupants into infertile hill country to subsist on reservations there.

After 1980 and the settlement that transformed Zimbabwe from white minority rule to black minority rule the ZANU war veterans waited patiently for their promised reward but time passed and nothing happened. So groups of them threatened to take to the jungle again and this time wage insurgency war against Mugabe. It would of course have split the ZANU movement and these were seasoned veterans who knew how to wage insurgency war. Robert Mugabe had to do something so the dispossession of the white farmers was a desperation measure to avert an oncoming civil war among black Zimbabweans.

Some ZANU war veterans were awarded land but generally these were blocks too small to successfully carry out commercial farming. In any case I believe that few aspired to follow in the footsteps of the former white proprietors and venture into commercial farming for which they as a rule lacked the required knowhow. What most wanted was to have the means to practise labour-intensive traditional African subsistence farming of a sort familiar to them from their background on the tribal reserves. And that, Doc, seems to have been the biggest single reason why farm productivity collapsed and this former "food bowl" of southern Africa turned into a regional basket case - with consequences that I believe you are well aware of.
Yeah subsistence farmer is not a replacement for commercial farming. But commercial farming takes a lot of land. Making it impossible to have enough land to go around to everyone it was promised to.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Re: 400 million people put at risk of starvation due to Putin blockading the port of Odessa

Post by neverfail » Sat Jul 02, 2022 4:31 pm

Good observation Doc.

Zimbabwe is likely only one of dozens of African countries that are underproducing in terms of growing foodstuffs for the same reason: augmented by scourges like recurring drought conditions and infestations of locusts.

In any case, the Russian seizure of all of Ukraine's seaports except Odessa (whose offshore waters have been apparently mined by the Ukrainians themselves to repel possible Russian seaborne landings) mean that tens, possibly hundreds of millions, of people in the Middle East and Africa are likely to go hungry. It seems that the UN agency, the World Food Organisation is normally a big buyer of Ukrainian grain for the purpose of feeding these countries with subsidised cereal grains.

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Re: 400 million people put at risk of starvation due to Putin blockading the port of Odessa

Post by Doc » Wed Jul 13, 2022 9:28 pm

neverfail wrote:
Sat Jul 02, 2022 4:31 pm
Good observation Doc.

Zimbabwe is likely only one of dozens of African countries that are underproducing in terms of growing foodstuffs for the same reason: augmented by scourges like recurring drought conditions and infestations of locusts.

In any case, the Russian seizure of all of Ukraine's seaports except Odessa (whose offshore waters have been apparently mined by the Ukrainians themselves to repel possible Russian seaborne landings) mean that tens, possibly hundreds of millions, of people in the Middle East and Africa are likely to go hungry. It seems that the UN agency, the World Food Organisation is normally a big buyer of Ukrainian grain for the purpose of feeding these countries with subsidised cereal grains.
Ukraine is their main source of grain due to the proximity. But wait until July 22nd, it is likely to get worse after that.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Re: 400 million people put at risk of starvation due to Putin blockading the port of Odessa

Post by cassowary » Thu Jul 14, 2022 2:07 am

neverfail wrote:
Fri Jul 01, 2022 10:55 pm
Doc wrote:
Fri Jul 01, 2022 9:29 pm
Stalin had it in for the Ukrainian farmers in the 20's and 30's because they were very hostile to his collective farming model. Zimbabwe was once able to feed itself until Mugabe forced the farmers off their land and divided it among his friends.
So true, Doc. Yet the situation was a bit more complicated than that.

(I once gained this insight from a Zimbabwean internet contact living in exile in London. He belonged to Wa-Shona ethnicity - the same one as Robert Mugabe himself sprang from. In African politics ethnic allegiance apparently counts for a lot more than ideology.)

Back during the 1965 to 1980 insurgent struggle to bring white minority rule to an end Mugabe rallied enough of his fellow Shona to become guerilla fighters by promising them land after he came to power. Bear in mind that a lot of the land he promised after disposing the white farmers of theirs had before British colonisation began in the 1890's been traditional Shona tribal land anyhow and the colonisers made room for the incoming settler-farmers by pushing the former Shona occupants into infertile hill country to subsist on reservations there.

After 1980 and the settlement that transformed Zimbabwe from white minority rule to black minority rule the ZANU war veterans waited patiently for their promised reward but time passed and nothing happened. So groups of them threatened to take to the jungle again and this time wage insurgency war against Mugabe. It would of course have split the ZANU movement and these were seasoned veterans who knew how to wage insurgency war. Robert Mugabe had to do something so the dispossession of the white farmers was a desperation measure to avert an oncoming civil war among black Zimbabweans.

Some ZANU war veterans were awarded land but generally these were blocks too small to successfully carry out commercial farming. In any case I believe that few aspired to follow in the footsteps of the former white proprietors and venture into commercial farming for which they as a rule lacked the required knowhow. What most wanted was to have the means to practise labour-intensive traditional African subsistence farming of a sort familiar to them from their background on the tribal reserves. And that, Doc, seems to have been the biggest single reason why farm productivity collapsed and this former "food bowl" of southern Africa turned into a regional basket case - with consequences that I believe you are well aware of.
“White minority rule to black minority rule.” The whites should be seen as a tribe and not a race. Then racism has nothing to do with white minority rule. The country was run better when the white tribe was in charge.
The Imp :D

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Re: 400 million people put at risk of starvation due to Putin blockading the port of Odessa

Post by neverfail » Mon Aug 01, 2022 5:26 am

For First Time Since Start of War, a Ship With Grain Leaves Odesa

A Russian naval blockade has prevented Ukraine from exporting millions of tons of grain, contributing to a global food crisis. The ship will need to navigate mined waters through the Black Sea.

For the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine more than five months ago, a ship loaded with grain left a port in Ukraine’s Odesa region on Monday after an international deal that could ease global food prices and bring relief to countries facing the threat of famine.
It was Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the political strongman of Turkey who brokered the deal. We cannot expect someone like Putin to have had a heartfelt attack of concern for the suffering of hundreds of millions of hungry in the third world since he has shown absolutely no concern for the fate of the tens of millions of Ukrainians he has displaced and the destruction his invasion has visited on the country. More likely he was moved by the bad image he was potentially getting in the countries that relied on Ukraine to supply them with grain.

Very likely Erdoğan would have pointed that out during negotiations; hence Putin's change of mind in the matter.

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