Russia's Oil Output Is Plummeting.....

[neverfail]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... 7rn4g9dBmM

Russia's Oil Output Is Plummeting, And It May Never Recover.

Why not!

[cassowary]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... 7rn4g9dBmM

Russia's Oil Output Is Plummeting, And It May Never Recover.

Why not!

With sancations, western oil extraction technology is banned and so are spare parts. So I am not surprised production is plummeting.

[Sertorio]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... 7rn4g9dBmM

Russia's Oil Output Is Plummeting, And It May Never Recover.

Why not!

With sancations, western oil extraction technology is banned and so are spare parts. So I am not surprised production is plummeting.

Yes, because there is no oil extraction technology outside the West...

[SteveFoerster]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... 7rn4g9dBmM

Russia's Oil Output Is Plummeting, And It May Never Recover.

Why not!

With sancations, western oil extraction technology is banned and so are spare parts. So I am not surprised production is plummeting.

Yes, because there is no oil extraction technology outside the West...

There is. But if it were just as good, the Russians would already be using it. There's a reason economists refer to "substitute goods" and not "just as goods".

[neverfail]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... 7rn4g9dBmM

Russia's Oil Output Is Plummeting, And It May Never Recover.

Why not!

With sancations, western oil extraction technology is banned and so are spare parts. So I am not surprised production is plummeting.

Yes, because there is no oil extraction technology outside the West...

Regardless! There must be a cause for plunging Russian oil production and if not this then what? The published article does not seem to make that clear.

[cassowary]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... 7rn4g9dBmM

Russia's Oil Output Is Plummeting, And It May Never Recover.

Why not!

With sancations, western oil extraction technology is banned and so are spare parts. So I am not surprised production is plummeting.

Yes, because there is no oil extraction technology outside the West...

There is. But if it were just as good, the Russians would already be using it. There's a reason economists refer to "substitute goods" and not "just as goods".

So, as the war drags on, Russia will become economically weaker. The EU will stop buying Russian oil and gas. Russian production of oil and gas will drop. Meanwhile, the US and EU will supply Ukraine with weapons. At the start of the war, Russia had more weapons. So they were more powerful.

My guess is that Russia is still more powerful than Ukraine now due to the build up of weapons over the past decades. So if they want a victory, they have to win soon before the window of opportunity closes. After a while, Ukraine will become more powerful than Russia.

[neverfail]

So, as the war drags on, Russia will become economically weaker. The EU will stop buying Russian oil and gas.

At present Hungary, which is 100% dependent on Russia for supplies of oil and gas has sought an exemption. Meantime Hungary, Czechia and Slovakia are quibbling over the inclusion of a Russian bank in the sanctions. that is part of the Putin war strategy - to get the European NATO members to pull in different directions thus in the hope of fracturing the alliance.

Meanwhile, the US and EU will supply Ukraine with weapons.

Don't count on it happening forever. Let us imagine that the Republicans win a majority in one or both Houses of Congress in the US mid-term elections later this year. Given Donald Trump's lingering grip on the party I would not put it past the cunts to veto the continuing flow of US arms to Ukraine just to politically embarrass Joe Biden: without caring for the consequences for either Ukraine or America's standing abroad. If the US falters like that can you count on the European NATO members not losing heart and giving up as well?

My guess is that Russia is still more powerful than Ukraine now due to the build up of weapons over the past decades. So if they want a victory, they have to win soon before the window of opportunity closes. After a while, Ukraine will become more powerful than Russia.

Russia stands head and shoulders above Ukraine as a military power. I am surprised that Ukraine has done as well as it has so far as the war is very much a David-versus-Goliath sort of scenario. Yet there is no guarantee that in this conflict gallant little David will win.

[cassowary]

So, as the war drags on, Russia will become economically weaker. The EU will stop buying Russian oil and gas.

At present Hungary, which is 100% dependent on Russia for supplies of oil and gas has sought an exemption. Meantime Hungary, Czechia and Slovakia are quibbling over the inclusion of a Russian bank in the sanctions. that is part of the Putin war strategy - to get the European NATO members to pull in different directions thus in the hope of fracturing the alliance.

Meanwhile, the US and EU will supply Ukraine with weapons.

Don't count on it happening forever. Let us imagine that the Republicans win a majority in one or both Houses of Congress in the US mid-term elections later this year. Given Donald Trump's lingering grip on the party I would not put it past the cunts to veto the continuing flow of US arms to Ukraine just to politically embarrass Joe Biden: without caring for the consequences for either Ukraine or America's standing abroad. If the US falters like that can you count on the European NATO members not losing heart and giving up as well?

My guess is that Russia is still more powerful than Ukraine now due to the build up of weapons over the past decades. So if they want a victory, they have to win soon before the window of opportunity closes. After a while, Ukraine will become more powerful than Russia.

Russia stands head and shoulders above Ukraine as a military power. I am surprised that Ukraine has done as well as it has so far as the war is very much a David-versus-Goliath sort of scenario. Yet there is no guarantee that in this conflict gallant little David will win.

The Republicans are not irrational. It is in the US interest to see Putin fail in Ukraine. So they wont stop arms supply just to embarrass Biden. As for countries like Hungary, they will eventually fall in line after the EU works something out to help them.

Looks like they are working out a compromise.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 022-05-04/.

Exemption of Hungary and Czechia till 2023. Rest of EU go ahead with ban as planned.

[cassowary]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... plied.html

This is possible given their high usage of missles. Russia prefers to rain destruction from afar with their missles since their army gets stymied by the brave Ukrainians.

Sanctions prevent them from getting spare parts for their factories. This lowers production. With usage high and production Low, it is not surprising I Russia is running Low on middles.

[Sertorio]

Russia stands head and shoulders above Ukraine as a military power. I am surprised that Ukraine has done as well as it has so far as the war is very much a David-versus-Goliath sort of scenario. Yet there is no guarantee that in this conflict gallant little David will win.

Russia has chosen to do an inexpensive war in the Ukraine. After the initial destruction of most of the Ukrainian military assets, Russia has chosen to wear down any Ukrainian resistance with artillery and missiles, while cutting most communication links with the West, in order to prevent reinforcements of heavy military equipment reaching the front line in the East. Mariupol was an exception, with Russia showing that it could take any major Ukrainian city it wanted. Next will be Kharkiv and Odessa, in order to complete the takeover of the whole south-east of the country, enabling the splitting of the Ukraine in two. This strategic choice meant that victory would take longer, but Russian losses would be minimized. And Russia needs to keep most of its armed forces in reserve for the eventuality of an open war with NATO. Western commentators have preferred to consider Russia as incompetent, while in fact they have followed a very careful plan in their offensive. Meanwhile they have tried in real combat the whole range of missiles, which have shown them how best use them. If a war starts with NATO one can be sure that Russia will have a decisive advantage over the inexperienced NATO forces.