EU stonewalling Turkey

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Sertorio
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Re: EU stonewalling Turkey

Post by Sertorio » Sun Jan 07, 2018 8:05 am

SteveFoerster wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2018 7:19 am
Sertorio wrote:
Sat Jan 06, 2018 1:45 pm
To me, none whatsoever. But NATO would be badly shaken if a major member state decides to leave. And the south flank of Russia's encirclement would disappear...
If Russia were "encircled" by Turkey, then Russian forces wouldn't be able to be in Syria. And whether Turkey is in NATO or not, they can still defend themselves, as when they recently shot down a Russian fighter jet trespassing in their airspace.
You don't really believe that, do you? Russians were intelligent enough to know that soon enough Turkey would be looking at Russia as an ally, and didn't want to spoil that chance by reacting to the shooting down of their plane, as they very well could have done. By keeping cool and letting Erdogan know about the plot against him, Putin created the conditions for Turkey to abandon its alliance with the US and become allied to Russia. Without Turkey NATO cannot threaten Russia from the south, and would be forced to fight Russia on the European front, where Russia has the advantage. The truth is that Putin is a much more intelligent statesman than anyone on the American or European sides, he has the support of 80% of the population, and can quickly mobilize an overwhelming military force on the European front. If he decides to attack or to retaliate, the Russian armies would be once more in Berlin in a couple of weeks.

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SteveFoerster
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Re: EU stonewalling Turkey

Post by SteveFoerster » Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:47 am

Sertorio wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2018 8:05 am
SteveFoerster wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2018 7:19 am
Sertorio wrote:
Sat Jan 06, 2018 1:45 pm
To me, none whatsoever. But NATO would be badly shaken if a major member state decides to leave. And the south flank of Russia's encirclement would disappear...
If Russia were "encircled" by Turkey, then Russian forces wouldn't be able to be in Syria. And whether Turkey is in NATO or not, they can still defend themselves, as when they recently shot down a Russian fighter jet trespassing in their airspace.
You don't really believe that, do you? Russians were intelligent enough to know that soon enough Turkey would be looking at Russia as an ally, and didn't want to spoil that chance by reacting to the shooting down of their plane, as they very well could have done. By keeping cool and letting Erdogan know about the plot against him, Putin created the conditions for Turkey to abandon its alliance with the US and become allied to Russia. Without Turkey NATO cannot threaten Russia from the south, and would be forced to fight Russia on the European front, where Russia has the advantage. The truth is that Putin is a much more intelligent statesman than anyone on the American or European sides, he has the support of 80% of the population, and can quickly mobilize an overwhelming military force on the European front. If he decides to attack or to retaliate, the Russian armies would be once more in Berlin in a couple of weeks.
Do I believe that the Turks shot down a Russian fighter jet? Yes.

Is is also the case that Erdogan is a dictator and therefore may eventually pivot to working with other authoritarian regimes like Putin's that won't object to human rights abuses in Turkey? That's possible. But only someone who doesn't give a shit about human freedom could call that a positive development.

Also, your scenario disregards that this isn't 1945, and that Western military technology can reach any point on the globe.
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