The Sanctions Delusion

Discussion of current events
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Sertorio
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Re: The Sanctions Delusion

Post by Sertorio » Sun Apr 24, 2022 2:03 pm

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Russia’s central bank has succeeded in stabilizing the ruble, which has returned to its exchange rate prior to Russia’s February 24 invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s consumer inflation rate, meanwhile, also has fallen back to pre-war levels, as a strengthening currency and relaxed exchange controls suppressed panic buying.

Stores are, for the most part, well-stocked, restaurants are open and consumer activity is mostly normal, according to Moscow residents interviewed by Asia Times.
https://asiatimes.com/2022/04/hostiliti ... n-at-home/
Once more we see that Russia is about to collapse as a result of western massive sanctions... :D

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Sertorio
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Re: The Sanctions Delusion

Post by Sertorio » Mon May 02, 2022 7:41 am

Russia’s oil revenues expected to soar
https://www.rt.com/business/554854-russ ... nues-soar/

Russia will see its income from the oil sector rise sharply this year and reach more than $180 billion, despite production cuts related to international sanctions, suggests a report published by independent research house Rystad Energy on Monday.

Thanks to the rising oil prices, Russia’s tax revenues will be 45% higher than last year and a whopping 181% higher than in 2020, Rystad Energy says.

“Europe’s dependence on Russian energy has been a deliberate and decades-long and mutually beneficial relationship. In this early phase of sanctions and embargoes, Russia will benefit as higher prices mean tax revenues are significantly higher than in recent years.” says Daria Melnik, a senior analyst at Rystad Energy.

According to the firm, the initial issues Russia had with its oil exports when European customers started shunning its oil were quickly resolved and loadings began to recover in late March, supported by orders from China and India. Russian crude exports remained resilient in April.
And so will it go, with Russia getting richer as sanctions are imposed...

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SteveFoerster
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Re: The Sanctions Delusion

Post by SteveFoerster » Mon May 02, 2022 9:13 am

Sertorio wrote:
Mon May 02, 2022 7:41 am
Russia’s oil revenues expected to soar
https://www.rt.com/business/554854-russ ... nues-soar/

Russia will see its income from the oil sector rise sharply this year and reach more than $180 billion, despite production cuts related to international sanctions, suggests a report published by independent research house Rystad Energy on Monday.

Thanks to the rising oil prices, Russia’s tax revenues will be 45% higher than last year and a whopping 181% higher than in 2020, Rystad Energy says.

“Europe’s dependence on Russian energy has been a deliberate and decades-long and mutually beneficial relationship. In this early phase of sanctions and embargoes, Russia will benefit as higher prices mean tax revenues are significantly higher than in recent years.” says Daria Melnik, a senior analyst at Rystad Energy.

According to the firm, the initial issues Russia had with its oil exports when European customers started shunning its oil were quickly resolved and loadings began to recover in late March, supported by orders from China and India. Russian crude exports remained resilient in April.
And so will it go, with Russia getting richer as sanctions are imposed...
Tankies posting endless Kremlin-authored articles to prove that Russia is wildly successful is intellectually identical to evangelists quoting Scripture to prove that God is real.
Writer, technologist, educator, gadfly.
President of New World University: https://newworld.ac

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Sertorio
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Re: The Sanctions Delusion

Post by Sertorio » Mon May 02, 2022 9:33 am

SteveFoerster wrote:
Mon May 02, 2022 9:13 am
Sertorio wrote:
Mon May 02, 2022 7:41 am
Russia’s oil revenues expected to soar
https://www.rt.com/business/554854-russ ... nues-soar/

Russia will see its income from the oil sector rise sharply this year and reach more than $180 billion, despite production cuts related to international sanctions, suggests a report published by independent research house Rystad Energy on Monday.

Thanks to the rising oil prices, Russia’s tax revenues will be 45% higher than last year and a whopping 181% higher than in 2020, Rystad Energy says.

“Europe’s dependence on Russian energy has been a deliberate and decades-long and mutually beneficial relationship. In this early phase of sanctions and embargoes, Russia will benefit as higher prices mean tax revenues are significantly higher than in recent years.” says Daria Melnik, a senior analyst at Rystad Energy.

According to the firm, the initial issues Russia had with its oil exports when European customers started shunning its oil were quickly resolved and loadings began to recover in late March, supported by orders from China and India. Russian crude exports remained resilient in April.
And so will it go, with Russia getting richer as sanctions are imposed...
Tankies posting endless Kremlin-authored articles to prove that Russia is wildly successful is intellectually identical to evangelists quoting Scripture to prove that God is real.
What's your doubt? If oil prices are higher Russia gets more money...

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Sertorio
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Re: The Sanctions Delusion

Post by Sertorio » Sat May 07, 2022 2:55 am

Russia defies predictions of collapse
https://www.rt.com/business/555097-russ ... economist/

The Russian economy has largely shrugged off “unprecedented sanctions” from the West, The Economist noted, crediting the sharp rise in revenues from oil and gas exports. Russian consumer spending is up again, interest rates are going down, and the ruble is stronger than before the conflict in Ukraine escalated.

“Russia’s economy is back on its feet,” the British weekly pointed out on Friday, adding that it was “defying predictions of collapse” as a result of embargoes imposed by the US and its allies.

The ruble is now “as valuable” as before, says The Economist, on account of “capital controls and high interest rates.” As of Friday, the Russian currency was actually stronger than before the conflict – 65.8 to the US dollar, compared to 81 on February 23. Russia is also continuing to pay its foreign-currency bonds, despite US and UK attempts to force it into a default.

Russians are spending “fairly freely” on cafés, bars and restaurants once again, according to numbers from Sberbank, Russia’s largest bank. The Russian central bank lowered the key interest rate from 17% to 14% in late April. Predictions that Russia’s GDP will decline up to 15% this year are “starting to look pessimistic,” notes The Economist.

Sanctions announced by the US and its allies after Moscow sent troops into Ukraine were intended to “degrade [Russia’s] industrial capacity for years to come,” according to US president Joe Biden’s words. Biden also vowed to “take robust action to make sure the pain of our sanctions is targeted at the Russian economy, not ours.”

Since then, the US has registered the highest annualized inflation increase since 1981, a quarter of negative GDP, and skyrocketing gas prices – which Biden blamed on Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Meanwhile, according to The Economist, Russia has exported at least $65 billion worth of oil and gas, with government revenues from hydrocarbons rising over 80% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022.
The West wants so badly to see Russia defeated and/or humiliated, that they decided to believe sanctions would work. They didn't take the trouble to analyse what the Russian economy looks like, and thought that wishing for Russia's demise would be enough to provoke it. And they didn't realize that Russia would never be isolated. There are far too many countries in the world wanting the US to fail, and thus willing to keep trading with Russia, using rubles instead of dollars. The US - and Europe - are digging their own graves, because they are led by particularly stupid people. Their problem...

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Sertorio
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Re: The Sanctions Delusion

Post by Sertorio » Sat May 07, 2022 3:29 am

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Will the West ever understand what is happening?...

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Sertorio
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Re: The Sanctions Delusion

Post by Sertorio » Sat May 07, 2022 3:32 am

Russia’s aggressive stance
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... nasty-turn

There can be little doubt that Putin’s aggression in Ukraine was triggered by Ukraine’s expressed desire to join NATO and America’s seeming acquiescence. A similar situation had arisen over Georgia, which in 2008 triggered a rapid response from Putin. His objective now is to get America out of Europe’s defence system, which would be the end of NATO. Consider the following:

- America’s military campaigns on the Eurasian continent have all failed, and Biden’s withdrawal from Afghanistan was the final defeat.

- The EU is planning its own army. Being an army run by committee it will lack focus and be less of a threat than NATO. This evolution into a NATO replacement should be encouraged.

- As the largest supplier of energy to the EU, Russia can apply maximum pressure to speed up the political process.

The most important commodity for the EU is energy. And through EU policies, which have been to stop producing carbon-based energy and to import it instead, the EU has become dependent on Russian oil, natural gas, and coal. And by emasculating Ukraine’s production, Putin is putting further pressure on the EU with respect to food and fertiliser, which will become increasingly apparent over the course of the summer.

For now, the EU is toeing the American line, with Brussels instructing member states to stop importing Russian oil from the end of this year. But already, it is reported that Hungary and Slovakia are prepared to buy Russian oil and pay in roubles. And it is likely that while other EU governments will avoid direct contractual relationships with Russia, ways round the problem indirectly are being pursued.

A sticking point for EU governments is having to pay in roubles. Otherwise, the solution is simple: non-Russian, non-EU banks can create a Eurorouble market overnight, creating rouble bank credit as needed. All that such a bank requires is access to rouble liquidity to manage a balance sheet denominated in roubles. The obvious providers of rouble credit are China’s state-controlled megabanks. And we can be reasonably sure that at his meeting with President Xi on 4 February, not only would the intention to invade Ukraine have been discusseded, but the role of China’s banks in providing roubles for the “unfriendlies” (NATO and its supporters) in the event of Western sanctions against Russia will have been as well.

The point is that Russia and China have mutual geopolitical objectives, and what might have come as a surprise to the West was most likely agreed between them in advance.

The recovery in the rouble from the initial hit to an intraday low of 150 to the dollar has taken it to 64 at the time of writing. There are two factors behind this recovery. The most important is Putin’s announcement that the unfriendlies will have to pay for energy in roubles. But there was a subsidiary announcement that the Russian central bank would be buying gold. Notionally, this was to ensure that Russian banks providing finance to gold mines could gold and other related assets as collateral. But the central bank had stopped buying gold and accumulated the unfriendlies currencies in its reserves instead. This was taken by senior figures in Putin’s administration as evidence that the highly regarded Governor, Elvira Nabiullina, had been captured by the West’s BIS-led banking system.

Russia has now realised that foreign exchange reserves which can be blocked by the issuers are valueless as reserves in a crisis, and that there is no point in having them. Only gold, which has no counterparty risk can discharge this role. And it is a lesson not lost on other central banks either, both in Asia and elsewhere.

But this sets the rouble onto a different course from the unbacked fiat currencies in the West. This is deliberate, because while rising interest rates will lead to a combined currency, banking, and financial asset crisis in the West, it is a priority of the greatest importance for Russia to protect herself from these developments.
The West, not Russia, is on the way to collapse.

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Sertorio
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Re: The Sanctions Delusion

Post by Sertorio » Thu May 12, 2022 6:54 am

Ruble named world’s best-performing currency
https://www.rt.com/business/555354-rubl ... -currency/

The Russian ruble has eclipsed 31 major currencies in growth since the start of 2022, becoming the globe’s best-performing currency, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday.

According to the publication, the ruble has strengthened against the US dollar by more than 11% since the beginning of the year. On the international currency market, the ruble exchange rate has shown even greater growth of about 12% so far.

During trading on the Moscow Exchange on May 12, the exchange rate dropped to 65.07 rubles against the US dollar and 68 rubles against the euro – its strongest against the latter since January 2020.

The Russian currency overtook the Brazilian real in terms of dynamics, which also showed significant growth of almost 9%. Third position in the best-performing currency ranking is occupied by the Mexican peso with a growth of 1% against the greenback.

The ruble dropped to historic lows against both the dollar and the euro in March after the US and its allies imposed severe economic sanctions on Russia over the conflict in Ukraine.

However, the Russian currency began to strengthen dramatically after the government introduced a series of support measures and has been on the rise since then. In addition to the introduction of temporary capital controls, the Russian Ministry of Finance has obliged Russian exporters to sell 80% of their foreign exchange earnings. The introduction of a ruble-based mechanism for gas export payments also helped stabilize the ruble, increasing the supply of the currency on the market and boosting the ruble demand.

Other countries, most notably, Turkey and Argentina, have also recently introduced capital controls, but failed to achieve the same results as Russia, Bloomberg notes. Since the beginning of 2022, the Turkish lira has depreciated by 13% against the dollar, while the Argentine peso is down by 12.3%.
According to the usual western "experts" sanctions would destroy the Russian economy, and reduce the ruble to nothing. As we see sanctions - and Russian measures to neutralize them -, have led to the Russian economy thriving and the ruble strengthening. In the same manner, Russia's "military collapse" in the Ukraine is in fact the path to victory. Hard as they may try, western experts and politicians are incapable of understanding Russia and its strength. Thinking they were dealing with a second rate power, they are in fact facing a power capable of defeating them in all areas. Soon they will see...

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Sertorio
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Re: The Sanctions Delusion

Post by Sertorio » Mon May 16, 2022 2:27 am

EU states fail to agree on Russian oil embargo
https://www.rt.com/business/555531-eu-f ... go-russia/

European Union member states have failed to agree on proposals to ban Russian oil imports, after more than 10 days of talks, with Hungary leading a group of countries resisting the measure, according to the EU foreign policy chief.

Josep Borrell said: “we will do our best in order to deblock the situation. I cannot ensure that it is going to happen because positions are quite strong.”

The proposed embargo on Russian crude is part of a sixth package of sanctions, proposed on May 4, over the Ukraine conflict.

Borrell acknowledged that some member states “face more difficulties because they are more dependent, because they are landlocked,” and that “they only have oil through pipelines, and coming from Russia.”

EU countries which are highly dependent on Russian oil, including Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Bulgaria, have repeatedly voiced their objections to a ban. The Hungarian government says an embargo would deal a crippling blow to the economy.

Last week, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said that the bloc had failed to find a way of mitigating the damage from an embargo.

Since late February Western powers have imposed severe sanctions on Russia over its military operation in Ukraine. The penalties include banning coal imports, freezing Russian assets, closing the skies to Russian planes, blacklisting businesses and other measures.

Aside from banning EU planes from its airspace, Russia’s response has so far been largely limited to sanctions against certain companies related to the seizure of Russian assets, and a demand that “unfriendly countries” pay for Russian natural gas in rubles.
On the military side, Europe doesn't have the courage to fight Russia. On the economic side, the war against Russia is a joke...How long will European peoples support their governments war of aggression against Russia?...

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Re: The Sanctions Delusion

Post by SteveFoerster » Mon May 16, 2022 9:56 am

Russia is the only aggressive power in this situation.
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