Prepare for Armageddona

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cassowary
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Prepare for Armageddona

Post by cassowary » Fri Nov 19, 2021 10:50 pm

The Imp :D

neverfail
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Re: Prepare for Armageddona

Post by neverfail » Sat Nov 20, 2021 4:12 pm

Is Xi bluffing?

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cassowary
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Re: Prepare for Armageddona

Post by cassowary » Sun Nov 21, 2021 6:09 pm

neverfail wrote:
Sat Nov 20, 2021 4:12 pm
Is Xi bluffing?
Xi has made himself Chairman of everything. He controls everything in China. So that means if something goes wrong, he gets the blame. He has a lot of enemies in China. he is not afraid of the US. But he is afraid of the Chinese people and his own party. Things are not going well in China, right now.

The economy is slowing. There is the pandemic. There is the trade war. There is the power shortage. There is the crashing property market. (The Chinese people can forgive him for oppressing them. But they won't forgive him, if his policies make them poorer.) A perfect storm. He needs a win. So if he can dominate Asia, starting with Taiwan's return to Chinese control, he gets a boost in popularity.

If the domestic situation deteriorates, his foreign policy will get more belligerent. It could be another Falklands War situation. President Galtieri of Argentina was facing an economic crisis. So he grabbed the Falklands gambling that Britain will not come so far to fight. Xi may make a similar gamble. Will America produce a Thatcher?
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Re: Prepare for Armageddona

Post by neverfail » Sun Nov 21, 2021 7:17 pm

https://www.reuters.com/article/china-e ... SKBN2H30PX

BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s economic growth is likely to slow to 5.5% in 2022 from an expected expansion of 8.2% this year, a Reuters poll showed,....[/quote]

Oh dear Cass. I only wish we could speed up our economic growth rate to 5.5%....

:o ....and you say that the PRC government has problems? :?: :roll:

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Re: Prepare for Armageddona

Post by SteveFoerster » Mon Nov 22, 2021 11:09 am

Slightly more likely than Llamageddon, but not much.

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Re: Prepare for Armageddona

Post by neverfail » Mon Nov 22, 2021 1:35 pm

neverfail wrote:
Sun Nov 21, 2021 7:17 pm
https://www.reuters.com/article/china-e ... SKBN2H30PX

BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s economic growth is likely to slow to 5.5% in 2022 from an expected expansion of 8.2% this year, a Reuters poll showed,....
Oh dear Cass. I only wish we could speed up our economic growth rate to 5.5%....

:o ....and you say that the PRC government has problems? :?: :roll:

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cassowary
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Re: Prepare for Armageddona

Post by cassowary » Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:12 pm

neverfail wrote:
Mon Nov 22, 2021 1:35 pm
neverfail wrote:
Sun Nov 21, 2021 7:17 pm
https://www.reuters.com/article/china-e ... SKBN2H30PX

BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s economic growth is likely to slow to 5.5% in 2022 from an expected expansion of 8.2% this year, a Reuters poll showed,....
Oh dear Cass. I only wish we could speed up our economic growth rate to 5.5%....

:o ....and you say that the PRC government has problems? :?: :roll:
As the current PM, Lee Keqiang, of China once said, China's GDP figures are man made. We don't know what the real numbers are. I suspect, neither do China's leaders know what he real numbers are.
BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s GDP figures are “man-made” and therefore unreliable, the man who is expected to be the country’s next head of government said in 2007, according to U.S. diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks.


China's Vice-Premier Li Keqiang attends a session at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos January 28, 2010. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann

Li Keqiang, head of the Communist Party in northeastern Liaoning province at the time, was unusually candid in his assessment of local economic data at a dinner with then-U.S. Ambassador to China Clark Randt, according to a confidential memo sent after the meeting and published on the WikiLeaks website.
I thought I explained this to you before. They do things differently in a communist country. In a normal country with a true free market, we let the private sector make the decisions. At the end of the year, civil servants go out to measure the economic activity. So in a free market economy, developers will decide on how many apartments to build, based on their best judgement on the demand for apartments.

GDP comprises many sectors. For example, there is manufacturing, exports, hotels, retail, financial services, real estate etc. So lets take real estate for example since that has been in the news recently.

Every year, Xi sits in the office to do planning. Commies are big on cemtral planning. Prior to the pandemic, they used to target a growth of 6.5%. At the end of the year, they report 6.5% growth on the dot. What that means is that they want all the various sectors to grow an average of 6.5%.

So let's say that real estate was targeted to grow at an above average rate of, say, 10%. So if last year, they built $100 billion worth of apartments, it means that this year, Xi wants the developers to build $110 billion worth of apartments. So his civil servants will cajole, threaten the developers into building more, whether there is demand or not. Tnat's why Li Keqiang said that the GDP is man made.

..........................................................................................................

That's why there are so many "ghost cities" as I shown you before. Never mind if they can't sell. Never mind if they can't repay bank loans for properties already built. The banks were also cajoled and threatened to keep lending and not call in the loans. So the bubble got biggler.

Meanwhile, Xi reported to the party that all is well. Elite party members usually had investments in the property sector through their relatives and they made $$$ money too as developers. They typically get cheap land from the state and sold to the common folks (who have to work 6 days a week and 12 hours a day to produce goods to sell to the world.) at inflated price. So supporters of Xi in the CCP are happy because they get the plum deals. As a result, an average apartment in their main cities like Beijing and Shanghai cost an average worker 25 to 30 years of their annual salary.

This is more expensive than London where the comparable number is about 12 times. Then Xi decided that property prices are too high. He told the banks to be more conservative in the lending. This led to bankruptcies. Now, Xi has to be careful. If property prices collapse, he will get hundreds of millions of angry Chinese who slaved 12 hours a day, 6 days a week in the factories and offices just to buy a small, shoddy apartment that cost them 30 years of the annual salary.

.....................................................................................................

As I said to you before, money flows from the powerless to the powerful. So in China, it is the CCP elite that has the power, just like in the French Ancien Regime. The top 1% of China are the high officials of the CCP. They get cheap land from the state (using their relatives names) to do property development. Then they sell to the modern day "peasants" who slave 12 hours a day in the factories and offices for 6 days week. They then buy expensive apartments. So money flowed to the relatives of the top officials - the top 1%. Its just like France before the revoution.
The Imp :D

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Sertorio
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Re: Prepare for Armageddona

Post by Sertorio » Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:29 am

cassowary wrote:
Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:12 pm
neverfail wrote:
Mon Nov 22, 2021 1:35 pm
neverfail wrote:
Sun Nov 21, 2021 7:17 pm
https://www.reuters.com/article/china-e ... SKBN2H30PX

BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s economic growth is likely to slow to 5.5% in 2022 from an expected expansion of 8.2% this year, a Reuters poll showed,....
Oh dear Cass. I only wish we could speed up our economic growth rate to 5.5%....

:o ....and you say that the PRC government has problems? :?: :roll:
As the current PM, Lee Keqiang, of China once said, China's GDP figures are man made. We don't know what the real numbers are. I suspect, neither do China's leaders know what he real numbers are.
BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s GDP figures are “man-made” and therefore unreliable, the man who is expected to be the country’s next head of government said in 2007, according to U.S. diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks.


China's Vice-Premier Li Keqiang attends a session at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos January 28, 2010. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann

Li Keqiang, head of the Communist Party in northeastern Liaoning province at the time, was unusually candid in his assessment of local economic data at a dinner with then-U.S. Ambassador to China Clark Randt, according to a confidential memo sent after the meeting and published on the WikiLeaks website.
I thought I explained this to you before. They do things differently in a communist country. In a normal country with a true free market, we let the private sector make the decisions. At the end of the year, civil servants go out to measure the economic activity. So in a free market economy, developers will decide on how many apartments to build, based on their best judgement on the demand for apartments.

GDP comprises many sectors. For example, there is manufacturing, exports, hotels, retail, financial services, real estate etc. So lets take real estate for example since that has been in the news recently.

Every year, Xi sits in the office to do planning. Commies are big on cemtral planning. Prior to the pandemic, they used to target a growth of 6.5%. At the end of the year, they report 6.5% growth on the dot. What that means is that they want all the various sectors to grow an average of 6.5%.

So let's say that real estate was targeted to grow at an above average rate of, say, 10%. So if last year, they built $100 billion worth of apartments, it means that this year, Xi wants the developers to build $110 billion worth of apartments. So his civil servants will cajole, threaten the developers into building more, whether there is demand or not. Tnat's why Li Keqiang said that the GDP is man made.

..........................................................................................................

That's why there are so many "ghost cities" as I shown you before. Never mind if they can't sell. Never mind if they can't repay bank loans for properties already built. The banks were also cajoled and threatened to keep lending and not call in the loans. So the bubble got biggler.

Meanwhile, Xi reported to the party that all is well. Elite party members usually had investments in the property sector through their relatives and they made $$$ money too as developers. They typically get cheap land from the state and sold to the common folks (who have to work 6 days a week and 12 hours a day to produce goods to sell to the world.) at inflated price. So supporters of Xi in the CCP are happy because they get the plum deals. As a result, an average apartment in their main cities like Beijing and Shanghai cost an average worker 25 to 30 years of their annual salary.

This is more expensive than London where the comparable number is about 12 times. Then Xi decided that property prices are too high. He told the banks to be more conservative in the lending. This led to bankruptcies. Now, Xi has to be careful. If property prices collapse, he will get hundreds of millions of angry Chinese who slaved 12 hours a day, 6 days a week in the factories and offices just to buy a small, shoddy apartment that cost them 30 years of the annual salary.

.....................................................................................................

As I said to you before, money flows from the powerless to the powerful. So in China, it is the CCP elite that has the power, just like in the French Ancien Regime. The top 1% of China are the high officials of the CCP. They get cheap land from the state (using their relatives names) to do property development. Then they sell to the modern day "peasants" who slave 12 hours a day in the factories and offices for 6 days week. They then buy expensive apartments. So money flowed to the relatives of the top officials - the top 1%. Its just like France before the revoution.
It's funny that, as an ethnic Chinese, you seem to think that China's Chinese are all a bunch of idiots... It may surprise you to know that they aren't, and their achievements in the past decades are there to prove it...

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Re: Prepare for Armageddona

Post by cassowary » Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:59 am

Sertorio wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:29 am
cassowary wrote:
Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:12 pm
neverfail wrote:
Mon Nov 22, 2021 1:35 pm
neverfail wrote:
Sun Nov 21, 2021 7:17 pm
https://www.reuters.com/article/china-e ... SKBN2H30PX

BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s economic growth is likely to slow to 5.5% in 2022 from an expected expansion of 8.2% this year, a Reuters poll showed,....
Oh dear Cass. I only wish we could speed up our economic growth rate to 5.5%....

:o ....and you say that the PRC government has problems? :?: :roll:
As the current PM, Lee Keqiang, of China once said, China's GDP figures are man made. We don't know what the real numbers are. I suspect, neither do China's leaders know what he real numbers are.
BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s GDP figures are “man-made” and therefore unreliable, the man who is expected to be the country’s next head of government said in 2007, according to U.S. diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks.


China's Vice-Premier Li Keqiang attends a session at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos January 28, 2010. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann

Li Keqiang, head of the Communist Party in northeastern Liaoning province at the time, was unusually candid in his assessment of local economic data at a dinner with then-U.S. Ambassador to China Clark Randt, according to a confidential memo sent after the meeting and published on the WikiLeaks website.
I thought I explained this to you before. They do things differently in a communist country. In a normal country with a true free market, we let the private sector make the decisions. At the end of the year, civil servants go out to measure the economic activity. So in a free market economy, developers will decide on how many apartments to build, based on their best judgement on the demand for apartments.

GDP comprises many sectors. For example, there is manufacturing, exports, hotels, retail, financial services, real estate etc. So lets take real estate for example since that has been in the news recently.

Every year, Xi sits in the office to do planning. Commies are big on cemtral planning. Prior to the pandemic, they used to target a growth of 6.5%. At the end of the year, they report 6.5% growth on the dot. What that means is that they want all the various sectors to grow an average of 6.5%.

So let's say that real estate was targeted to grow at an above average rate of, say, 10%. So if last year, they built $100 billion worth of apartments, it means that this year, Xi wants the developers to build $110 billion worth of apartments. So his civil servants will cajole, threaten the developers into building more, whether there is demand or not. Tnat's why Li Keqiang said that the GDP is man made.

..........................................................................................................

That's why there are so many "ghost cities" as I shown you before. Never mind if they can't sell. Never mind if they can't repay bank loans for properties already built. The banks were also cajoled and threatened to keep lending and not call in the loans. So the bubble got biggler.

Meanwhile, Xi reported to the party that all is well. Elite party members usually had investments in the property sector through their relatives and they made $$$ money too as developers. They typically get cheap land from the state and sold to the common folks (who have to work 6 days a week and 12 hours a day to produce goods to sell to the world.) at inflated price. So supporters of Xi in the CCP are happy because they get the plum deals. As a result, an average apartment in their main cities like Beijing and Shanghai cost an average worker 25 to 30 years of their annual salary.

This is more expensive than London where the comparable number is about 12 times. Then Xi decided that property prices are too high. He told the banks to be more conservative in the lending. This led to bankruptcies. Now, Xi has to be careful. If property prices collapse, he will get hundreds of millions of angry Chinese who slaved 12 hours a day, 6 days a week in the factories and offices just to buy a small, shoddy apartment that cost them 30 years of the annual salary.

.....................................................................................................

As I said to you before, money flows from the powerless to the powerful. So in China, it is the CCP elite that has the power, just like in the French Ancien Regime. The top 1% of China are the high officials of the CCP. They get cheap land from the state (using their relatives names) to do property development. Then they sell to the modern day "peasants" who slave 12 hours a day in the factories and offices for 6 days week. They then buy expensive apartments. So money flowed to the relatives of the top officials - the top 1%. Its just like France before the revoution.
It's funny that, as an ethnic Chinese, you seem to think that China's Chinese are all a bunch of idiots... It may surprise you to know that they aren't, and their achievements in the past decades are there to prove it...
I know Chinese peeople from China. Do you? Those I met don't like the CCP. Nor do they believe what they say. Of course, these are a select group - those that left. So you can say they are self selected not to like their government.
The Imp :D

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Re: Prepare for Armageddona

Post by SteveFoerster » Tue Nov 23, 2021 6:08 am

neverfail wrote:
Sun Nov 21, 2021 7:17 pm
In a normal country with a true free market, we let the private sector make the decisions. At the end of the year, civil servants go out to measure the economic activity. So in a free market economy, developers will decide on how many apartments to build, based on their best judgement on the demand for apartments.
Under that definition, I can't name a single country with a "true free market". What the world has is corporatism, where government policymakers and corporate executives share power over those decisions, often uneasily.
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