Is the CCP facing a civil war?

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SteveFoerster
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Re: Is the CCP facing a civil war?

Post by SteveFoerster » Sun Nov 07, 2021 5:27 pm

neverfail wrote:
Sun Nov 07, 2021 3:41 pm
War Between the States
I'm not telling you what to say, but to American ears referring to the Civil War as this makes you sound like a tiki torch-wielding neo-Confederate who still calls black men "boy" in public.
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Re: Is the CCP facing a civil war?

Post by neverfail » Sun Nov 07, 2021 7:45 pm

SteveFoerster wrote:
Sun Nov 07, 2021 5:27 pm
neverfail wrote:
Sun Nov 07, 2021 3:41 pm
War Between the States
I'm not telling you what to say, but to American ears referring to the Civil War as this makes you sound like a tiki torch-wielding neo-Confederate who still calls black men "boy" in public.
I may sound like that in relation to popular opinion, conventional wisdom (being politically correct? :D ) but I think by now after all I have posted on this website that my sympathies are not with the Confederate cause.

No Steve; the sole reason I make this reference is because I now believe (and no one has so far refuted this impression) that the 13 states who jointly formed the Confederacy were NOT, for reasons I have already given, going against the US constitution by succeding. Therefore the definitive jargon the War Between the States is correct.
...................................................................................................................................

Steve, getting back to that 1812-15 war with Britain:
The Treaty of Ghent ended the War of 1812 between the United States and Great Britain. Peace negotiations began in Ghent, Belgium, starting in August of 1814. After four months of talks, the treaty was signed on December 24, 1814. The Senate unanimously ratified the Treaty of Ghent on February 16, 1815.

https://www.loc.gov/rr/program//bib/our ... %2C%201815.
I think you might be right in describing that war as having been one that the US lost. Consider the timing of the above. A crossing of the North Atlantic Ocean by slow sailing ship in those days was normally a voyage of several weeks druation. For the American delegation to have arrived in Belgium by August 1814 it would have needed to have set out from the US by mid-June 1814 at latest. It tells me that by the beginning of June 1814 President James madison and cabinet colleagues must have jointly concluded that "the limeys have got the better of us in this fight".

The Battle of New Orleans was fought on January 8 1815 and seems to have been the one clear victory won by US forces on land. It came too late. By then the treaty was signed but not enough time had elapsed for news of it to have reached the war front. Nevertheless Americans have celebrated that battle ever since apparently as a sweet consolation prize at the end of a war that on points the USA lost.

The bigger consolation for Americans was that as a consequence of losing not a single square inch of American territory was annexed back into the British Empire. Nor (to my knowledge) did the uS have to pay great Britain any fiscal reperations - the usual penalty a nation has to suffer when it loses a war.

(Which is probably why to this day Americans still live with the impression that their side did not lose.)

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Re: Is the CCP facing a civil war?

Post by SteveFoerster » Sun Nov 07, 2021 10:00 pm

neverfail wrote:
Sun Nov 07, 2021 7:45 pm
I may sound like that in relation to popular opinion, conventional wisdom (being politically correct? :D ) but I think by now after all I have posted on this website that my sympathies are not with the Confederate cause.
Quite so, don't worry! Just thought I'd say, but on that I will say no more.
neverfail wrote:
Sun Nov 07, 2021 7:45 pm
The Battle of New Orleans was fought on January 8 1815 and seems to have been the one clear victory won by US forces on land. It came too late. By then the treaty was signed but not enough time had elapsed for news of it to have reached the war front. Nevertheless Americans have celebrated that battle ever since apparently as a sweet consolation prize at the end of a war that on points the USA lost.

The bigger consolation for Americans was that as a consequence of losing not a single square inch of American territory was annexed back into the British Empire. Nor (to my knowledge) did the uS have to pay great Britain any fiscal reperations - the usual penalty a nation has to suffer when it loses a war.

(Which is probably why to this day Americans still live with the impression that their side did not lose.)
Americans were right to be happy about the outcome of the Battle of New Orleans, as it's unlikely had the British taken New Orleans that they would have returned it, treaty or no. So while the war can perhaps be best described as a draw, without that victory it would have been very difficult to describe it as anything but a major loss.

On the other hand, being the victor of that battle led to the rise of Andrew Jackson as a political force, a dubious outcome.
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Re: Is the CCP facing a civil war?

Post by Doc » Sun Nov 07, 2021 10:49 pm

neverfail wrote:
Sun Nov 07, 2021 3:41 pm
Doc wrote:
Sun Nov 07, 2021 9:24 am

The White population was 27 million, and the Black population was 5 million in the south in 1860

https://www.statista.com/statistics/101 ... and-gender
According to my info the total population of the USA was 31,443,321. Also "In 1860, the South had about 8 million whites, compared to about 20 million in the North."

http://www.fsmitha.com/h3/h42cw-culture.htm


Add together the 20 million whites living in the north to the 8 million living in The South and you end up with just 3 million blacks; most of whom would have still been slaves living in the South.
Both sites are wrong. The total population in 1860 by the original census, as published was 37 million 12 million whites in the South 4 million slaves and 250,000 free blacks

The population in the North was 19 million Those figures are from the 1860 US census. Honestly this is what I thought before I looked it up. And that the proportion of slaves to white in the south was much lower. I guess that internet really does make us dumber. :lol:

Also Kentucky and Maryland were considered southern sates in 1860 but were never part of the CSA

http://www2.census.gov/library/publicat ... 60a-02.pdf
1860 census.jpg
1860 census.jpg (218.15 KiB) Viewed 174 times

That is an interesting question. IE What countries would have allied with the CSA had it won. Even though English textile mills were heavy users of Southern cotton pre-war I doubt there would have been a great deal of interest there to support the CSA given slavery and Canada's close proximity to the Northern states. England was in danger of losing their north American colony to the US without giving the excuse to the US to invade. The French as you point out would have shared a common border more with the CSA in their would be Mexican colony.
Pre-war the main value of the American South to great Britain had been as the world's biggest source of raw cotton. During the War Between the States this supply was cut off by the Union navy blockade of Confederate ports. During the 4 year course of the American conflict England's cotton merchants and mill owners were :lol: not idly standing around pulling their dicks. They actively looked around for alternative sources of raw cotton and found them.

The first such source was India: where growing cotton and hand weaving it into fine fabric had been practiced for centuries. High global prices for cotton brought on by the shortfall from North America caused production to ramp up there. The second source of cotton was the Nile Delta of Egypt: likewise a traditional Old World cotton producing area.

With the end of the conflict and the lifting of the US Navy blockade in 1865 the return of American cotton to the world market caused a glut situation and world prices collapsed. So plantations in the South that had survived the War Between the States and were looking forwards to selling their crop at the high prices trevailing in the 1850's were due to be disappointed. A lot of them found that at prevailing prices they could not make ends meet and went bankrupt.

I see it as highly unlikely therefore that if the South had won and acheived soverignty that Britain would have valued the CSA as an ally anything like as much as Harry Turtledove suggests in his series of alternative history novels on the matter. As a source of an important industrial raw material Britain by then (as you can see) "had other options". However, now that you have mentioned British North America the UK might have formed an alliance of convenience with the CSA for another reason.

It is neither accidental nor a coincidence that the federation of Canada's two keystone provinces, Ontario and Quebec, took place in 1867 - about 18 months after the 1861-65 American conflict came to an end. The US seems to have emerged bruised and battered but strengthened from it. If relations with Britain were as bad as I am led to believe then the getting together of the two most populous colonial outposts the British Empire held in North America (in which British diplomacy was actively involved: left to the locals the union may never have happened) was meant to strengthen the British Empire at one of its weak points. If as a bonus an independent, soverign CSA could have been lined up as an ally it would have taken a lot of the heat off Canada by placing the rump USA in a meat in the sandwich sort of situation.
A clear US right of way to Alaska would have blocked the British from ports in the Eastern Pacific and ended the saying "The Sun never sets on the British empire"
Absolutely true Doc. But with the more than one and one half centuries of historical hindsight we have now does that matter?
There is little doubt the British would have lost all of Canada in a war with the US. THe British navy was obsolete the moment iron clads showed up. It was several years before Iron clads were deep water war ships. Britain could not win even against the practically no navy American revolutionaries I doubt it could win against an American navy of the opposite side of the Atlantic Against an American army that had just rapidly developed new technology and new fighting methods that changed the very nature of warfare.
The invention of ironclads (the world's first were commissioned in France in 1859 - though France and the USA had operated an agreement to share military technologies for many years prior. Among the French technological innovations that both sides employed over the coursemof the 1861-65 conflict were the mini' ball rifled musket bullet and the Napoleon field cannon.

Ironclads did not immediately change the nature of naval warfare. as soon as the USS Monitor sank as soon as it steamed out of the calm waters of Cheasepeake Bay into the rougher waters of the north Atlantic it sank. As for the Confederate improvised ironclad the CSS Virginia it did not exactly cover itself with glory either.
[quorw]

The Monitor could go to sea. In fact it was built in NY and had to sail to Chesapeake bay via the Atlantic. However it was not all that seaworthy as its deck was just above sea level.

Still the fact that the monitor showed up to fight the Virginia the day after the Virgin's first action is a rather incredible coincidence. Basically a race with a photo finish

But the French were actually the first nation to build a metal armored warship. Though the US started to build one in 1854 but stopped work on it years before the war.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Monitor#Conception

Yes, on the US side they invented the gatling gun and used it a couple of time before the war came to an end. The French military attache' in Washington must have been awake to its potential because 5 years later when the 1870-71 Franco-Prussian war broke out the French army was equipped with approxinately 120 of these: some bought from the original manufacturer in the USA and others replica copies manufactured in France. The French found however that the results were disappointing when these first prototypes of machine guns were used to try and repel German cavalry charges and massed infantry advances. the German side who apparently lacked these weapons still won that war handsomely.
But with all alternate histories we can only argue the point, as we will never know for sure.
Right!
I largely everything you have to say in the last part.
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Re: Is the CCP facing a civil war?

Post by Sertorio » Mon Nov 15, 2021 6:02 am

Let's go back to China, which is a lot more interesting and important than the old, tired US.
Xi’s new Communist Manifesto
By PEPE ESCOBAR - NOVEMBER 15, 2021
https://asiatimes.com/2021/11/xis-new-c ... manifesto/

Late last week in Beijing, the sixth plenum of the Chinese Communist Party adopted a historic resolution – only the third in its 100-year history – detailing major accomplishments and laying out a vision for the future.

Essentially, the resolution poses three questions. How did we get here? How come we were so successful? And what have we learned to make these successes long-lasting?

The importance of this resolution should not be underestimated. It imprints a major geopolitical fact: China is back. Big time. And doing it their way. No amount of fear and loathing deployed by the declining hegemon will alter this path.

The resolution will inevitably prompt quite a few misunderstandings. So allow me a little deconstruction, from the point of view of a gwailo who has lived between East and West for the past 27 years.

If we compare China’s 31 provinces with the 214 sovereign states that compose the “international community”, every Chinese region has experienced the fastest economic growth rates in the world.

Across the West, the lineaments of China’s notorious growth equation – without any historical parallel – have usually assumed the mantle of an unsolvable mystery.

Little Helmsman Deng Xiaoping’s ’s famous “crossing the river while feeling the stones”, described as the path to build “socialism with Chinese characteristics” may be the overarching vision. But the devil has always been in the details: how the Chinese applied – with a mix of prudence and audaciousness – every possible device to facilitate the transition towards a modern economy.

The – hybrid – result has been defined by a delightful oxymoron: “communist market economy.” Actually, that’s the perfect practical translation of Deng’s legendary “it doesn’t matter the color of the cat, as long as it catches mice.” And it was this oxymoron, in fact, that the new resolution passed in Beijing celebrated last week.

Made in China 2025

Mao and Deng have been exhaustively analyzed over the years. Let’s focus here on Papa Xi’s brand new bag.

Right after he was elevated to the apex of the party, Xi defined his unambiguous master plan: to accomplish the “Chinese dream”, or China’s “renaissance.” In this case, in political economy terms, “renaissance” meant to realign China to its rightful place in a history spanning at least three millennia: right at the center. Middle Kingdom, indeed.

Already during his first term Xi managed to imprint a new ideological framework. The Party – as in centralized power – should lead the economy towards what was rebranded as “the new era.” A reductionist formulation would be The State Strikes Back. In fact, it was way more complicated.

This was not merely a rehash of state-run economy standards. Nothing to do with a Maoist structure capturing large swathes of the economy. Xi embarked in what we could sum up as a quite original form of authoritarian state capitalism – where the state is simultaneously an actor and the arbiter of economic life.

Team Xi did learn a lot of lessons from the West, using mechanisms of regulation and supervision to check, for instance, the shadow banking sphere. Macroeconomically, the expansion of public debt in China was contained, and the extension of credit better supervised. It took only a few years for Beijing to be convinced that major financial sphere risks were under control.

China’s new economic groove was de facto announced in 2015 via “Made in China 2025”, reflecting the centralized ambition of reinforcing the civilization-state’s economic and technological independence. That would imply a serious reform of somewhat inefficient public companies – as some had become states within the state.

In tandem, there was a redesign of the “decisive role of the market” – with the emphasis that new riches would have to be at the disposal of China’s renaissance as its strategic interests – defined, of course, by the party.

So the new arrangement amounted to imprinting a “culture of results” into the public sector while associating the private sector to the pursuit of an overarching national ambition. How to pull it off? By facilitating the party’s role as general director and encouraging public-private partnerships.

The Chinese state disposes of immense means and resources that fit its ambition. Beijing made sure that these resources would be available for those companies that perfectly understood they were on a mission: to contribute to the advent of a “new era.”

Manual for power projection

There’s no question that China under Xi, in eight short years, was deeply transformed. Whatever the liberal West makes of it – hysteria about neo-Maoism included – from a Chinese point of view that’s absolutely irrelevant, and won’t derail the process.

What must be understood, by both the Global North and South, is the conceptual framework of the “Chinese dream”: Xi’s unshakeable ambition is that the renaissance of China will finally smash the memories of the “century of humiliation” for good.

Party discipline – the Chinese way – is really something to behold. The CCP is the only communist party on the planet that thanks to Deng has discovered the secret of amassing wealth.

And that brings us to Xi’s role enshrined as a great transformer, on the same conceptual level as Mao and Deng. He fully grasped how the state and the party created wealth: the next step is to use the party and wealth as instruments to be put at the service of China’s renaissance.

Nothing, not even a nuclear war, will deviate Xi and the Beijing leadership from this path. They even devised a mechanism – and a slogan – for the new power projection: the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), originally One Belt, One Road (OBOR).

In 2017, BRI was incorporated into the party statutes. Even considering the “lost in translation” angle, there’s no Westernized, linear definition for BRI.

BRI is deployed on many superimposed levels. It started with a series of investments facilitating the supply of commodities to China.

Then came investments in transport and connectivity infrastructure, with all their nodes and hubs such as Khorgos, at the Chinese-Kazakh border. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), announced in 2013, symbolized the symbiosis of these two investment paths.

The next step was to transform logistical hubs into integrated economic zones – for instance as in HP based in Chongjing exporting its products via a BRI rail network to the Netherlands. Then came the Digital Silk Roads – from 5G to AI – and the Covid-linked Health Silk Roads.

What’s certain is that all these roads lead to Beijing. They work as much as economic corridors as soft power avenues, “selling” the Chinese way especially across the Global South.

Make Trade, Not War

Make Trade, Not War: that would be the motto of a Pax Sinica under Xi. The crucial aspect is that Beijing does not aim to replace Pax Americana, which always relied on the Pentagon’s variant of gunboat diplomacy.

The declaration subtly reinforced that Beijing is not interested in becoming a new hegemon. What matters above all is to remove any possible constraints that the outside world may impose over its own internal decisions, and especially over its unique political setup.

The West may embark on hysteria fits over anything – from Tibet and Hong Kong to Xinjiang and Taiwan. It won’t change a thing.

Concisely, this is how “socialism with Chinese characteristics” – a unique, always mutant economic system – arrived at the Covid-linked techno-feudalist era. But no one knows how long the system will last, and in which mutant form.

Corruption, debt – which tripled in ten years – political infighting – none of that has disappeared in China. To reach 5% annual growth, China would have to recover the growth in productivity comparable to those breakneck times in the 80s and 90s, but that will not happen because a decrease in growth is accompanied by a parallel decrease in productivity.

A final note on terminology. The CCP is always extremely precise. Xi’s two predecessors espoused “perspectives” or “visions.” Deng wrote “theory.” But only Mao was accredited with “thought.” The “new era” has now seen Xi, for all practical purposes, elevated to the status of “thought” – and part of the civilization-state’s constitution.

That’s why the party resolution last week in Beijing could be interpreted as the New Communist Manifesto. And its main author is, without a shadow of a doubt, Xi Jinping. Whether the manifesto will be the ideal road map for a wealthier, more educated and infinitely more complex society than in the times of Deng, all bets are off.
While some of you keep dreaming of Xi being ejected from the CCP, the truth is that Xi is about to become the strongest leader of the strongest China ever. And there isn't anything anybody can do to stop it happening. All we should is accepting China as it is, and be prepared to trade and cooperate with it, forgetting any threats or sanctions. The countries which will understand this first, will be the ones which will get rich first with the help of China.

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Re: Is the CCP facing a civil war?

Post by Sertorio » Mon Nov 15, 2021 9:11 am

I wish people would stop posting things which have nothing to do with China. There other threads for other subjects.

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Re: Is the CCP facing a civil war?

Post by SteveFoerster » Mon Nov 15, 2021 11:35 am

Sertorio wrote:
Mon Nov 15, 2021 9:11 am
I wish people would stop posting things which have nothing to do with China. There other threads for other subjects.
That's still closer than your proclamations of inevitable Chinese hegemony and calls for preemptive collaboration that come from an alternate reality.
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Re: Is the CCP facing a civil war?

Post by neverfail » Mon Nov 15, 2021 1:06 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Mon Nov 15, 2021 6:02 am
Let's go back to China, which is a lot more interesting and important than the old, tired US.
While some of you keep dreaming of Xi being ejected from the CCP, the truth is that Xi is about to become the strongest leader of the strongest China ever. And there isn't anything anybody can do to stop it happening. All we should is accepting China as it is, and be prepared to trade and cooperate with it, forgetting any threats or sanctions. The countries which will understand this first, will be the ones which will get rich first with the help of China.
https://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/abs ... utely.html

"Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Great men are almost always bad men."
Lord Acton
One of the wisest truisms ever penned.

Be warned! Have neither of you native Portuguese speakers, Pepe Escobar or yourself, ever heard of that bit of wisdom?

Apparently not! If Escobar were not been so besotted with the display of uncontained power that both modern China and the elevation of XI to the status of CCP demigod represents then instead of placing both high on a pedestal he should have been loyal to his readers by sounding the alarm loud and clear.

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Re: Is the CCP facing a civil war?

Post by Sertorio » Mon Nov 15, 2021 2:47 pm

neverfail wrote:
Mon Nov 15, 2021 1:06 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Mon Nov 15, 2021 6:02 am
Let's go back to China, which is a lot more interesting and important than the old, tired US.
While some of you keep dreaming of Xi being ejected from the CCP, the truth is that Xi is about to become the strongest leader of the strongest China ever. And there isn't anything anybody can do to stop it happening. All we should is accepting China as it is, and be prepared to trade and cooperate with it, forgetting any threats or sanctions. The countries which will understand this first, will be the ones which will get rich first with the help of China.
https://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/abs ... utely.html

"Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Great men are almost always bad men."
Lord Acton
One of the wisest truisms ever penned.

Be warned! Have neither of you native Portuguese speakers, Pepe Escobar or yourself, ever heard of that bit of wisdom?

Apparently not! If Escobar were not been so besotted with the display of uncontained power that both modern China and the elevation of XI to the status of CCP demigod represents then instead of placing both high on a pedestal he should have been loyal to his readers by sounding the alarm loud and clear.
You seem to forget I have a PhD in Political Science... Of course I know of Lord Acton and his sayings... :D

No matter how powerful Xi is or will be, he will never do not even 10% of the awful things the latest American Presidents have done... And while Xi depends on the support of the 100 million CCP members, the latest US Presidents only depend on the complicity of a few thousand oligarchs and party officials, and on the stupidity of US voters who let themselves be manipulated...

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Re: Is the CCP facing a civil war?

Post by Doc » Mon Nov 15, 2021 3:54 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Thu Jul 09, 1970 4:20 am

You seem to forget I have a PhD in Political Science... Of course I know of Lord Acton and his sayings... :D

No matter how powerful Xi is or will be, he will never do not even 10% of the awful things the latest American Presidents have done... And while Xi depends on the support of the 100 million CCP members, the latest US Presidents only depend on the complicity of a few thousand oligarchs and party officials, and on the stupidity of US voters who let themselves be manipulated...
A PHD is Political Science? Seriously Sertorio? Not to disparage your degree but It is no wonder you are so full of BS. :P

I literally had an uncle with a PolSci degree. My father told me once my uncle submitted a paper on a book he never read.

His professor read the paper and asked my uncle "You didn't read the book did you" And my uncle replied "No, I just read the title and imagined what it was about." His professor gave him an "A-" and told him he would have given him an "A+" had he actually read the book.

:D

One other thing I noticed when I took the Polysci courses I did take in College. The people that actually read newspapers when they were young all thought it was easy. Those that did not complained about how hard a subject it was.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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