Is the CCP facing a civil war?

Discussion of current events
Post Reply
User avatar
Doc
Posts: 6259
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 7:09 pm
Location: Cradle To Grave

Is the CCP facing a civil war?

Post by Doc » Wed Oct 27, 2021 1:55 pm

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wi ... e-80785779
Wuhan police search for man who killed 7, jumped off bridge

Police in Wuhan, China, say they are searching for a man who killed seven people then jumped off a bridge in the city
ByThe Associated Press
October 26, 2021, 3:23 AM

On Location: October 27, 2021
Catch up on the developing stories making headlines.
ABCNews.com

BEIJING -- Police in Wuhan, China, say they are searching for a man who killed seven people then jumped off a bridge in the city.

The suspect, surnamed Gao, 39, killed a family of five and two more people while escaping, Wuhan police said in a statement on Tuesday.

Gao had visited the home of a man whose last name was Zhang, in a village near Wuhan, on Sunday evening, local media reported. Zhang was serving temporarily as the village's Communist Party secretary, and the man had claimed to have some business he needed to resolve.

Zhang and his wife were found dead at the scene, along with their daughter-in-law and two grandchildren. One child found at the scene was still breathing and was sent to the hospital, local media reported. The man then killed a passerby and a driver, whose car he stole to make his escape.

The suspect fled until he reached a bridge over the Yangtze River bridge and jumped off the bridge early Monday morning, police said.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

User avatar
cassowary
Posts: 5294
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 11:30 pm

Re: Is the CCP facing a civil war?

Post by cassowary » Wed Oct 27, 2021 11:43 pm

This case does not prove anything. But there is a power struggle going on in the CCP right now. The party has a few factions, the most powerful of which are the Xi faction and the Jiang Zemin faction.

Xi wants to extend his power beyond the 10 years that Deng decreeded. So next year is crucial. There will be a party congress to choose the next leader for the next 5 year term. Xi wants to be in power. The Jiang people are appalled. During Xi's tenure, he purged them using corruption as an excuse to get rid of them.

When Amrican politicians lose an election, they write a book, join a lobbying firm and make well paid speeches. But in China, when a politician loses a political fight, they go to jail. All their ill gotten gains are confiscated. Even their families will suffer. You must remember that everybody is corrupt in China. But Xi will catch those who does not support him.

So it goes like this. I support you. You promote me. I make $$$ from my post. For example, if I am a provincial governor, I can sell state owned land to developers. I sell prime land at cheap price to my buddies and family. So everybody is happy. Now, who does not want to climb up the party ranks? So they fight for positions. I need a patron. This means unyielding loyalty to whoever you attach yourself to.

But if your patron falls, so do you. The stakes are high. All the wealth you and your family accumulated will be confiscated. You will go to jail. So back to the civil wa in the CCP.

The period between now and the Party Congress next year will be very interesting and dangerous for the world. For the Jiang faction, its their last stand. Jiang Zemin is 95 years old. So he can't live for much longer. They need to get one of them in the top post. If they lose, Xi will show no mercy. They will be arrested for corruption. If they win, the Jiang faction will get their man in power. He will reward all those loyal to him with high posts.

This means he will get rid of Xi people who did not support him. They will be removed the usual way - corruption charges. Jail and confiscation. The stakes are high.

Meanwhile, to show that he is the best man for the job, Xi will be tough and nasty to the rest of the world. This is to show that he has made China great again. Taiwan will be threatened. Expect tensions in the Himalayas and the South China Sea.

..............................................................................................................................

I am currently reading a book called, "Red Roulette", by Desmond Shum. He was born in Shanghai, migrated to HK, educated in the US, worked for a American Private Equity firm, then went into business in china and made a fortune. He gave an insightful account of life at the top in China.

I will just give you an anecdote that illustrates the degree of loyaty expected. When he was dating his future wife, he was introduced to her parents for approval. Nothing unusual in China. But he had to pass one more test before she agreed to marry him. She asked him to meet a mysterious woman whom she refused to name.

They met and she approved. That women was Wen Jiabao's wife. In case you don't know, Wen Jiabao was once the Premier of China. His then girlfriend wanted to show her loyalty to her patron, Mrs Wen or "Auntie Zhang". Aunty Zhang was about to give her lucrative business deals and she had to trust her husband or its no go.

Its like the days of Kings and Emperors. Their courts were filled with people eager to prove their loyalty to the monarch, even to the point of dying for him. So in China, top figures would have a bunch of people totally loyal even seeking approval over the most intimate details of their lives. Maybe even willing to kill for them. If their patron falls, all of them will also fall.
The Imp :D

User avatar
Sertorio
Posts: 5893
Joined: Fri Dec 16, 2016 3:12 am

Re: Is the CCP facing a civil war?

Post by Sertorio » Thu Oct 28, 2021 2:27 am

cassowary wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 11:43 pm
This case does not prove anything. But there is a power struggle going on in the CCP right now. The party has a few factions, the most powerful of which are the Xi faction and the Jiang Zemin faction.

Xi wants to extend his power beyond the 10 years that Deng decreeded. So next year is crucial. There will be a party congress to choose the next leader for the next 5 year term. Xi wants to be in power. The Jiang people are appalled. During Xi's tenure, he purged them using corruption as an excuse to get rid of them.

When Amrican politicians lose an election, they write a book, join a lobbying firm and make well paid speeches. But in China, when a politician loses a political fight, they go to jail. All their ill gotten gains are confiscated. Even their families will suffer. You must remember that everybody is corrupt in China. But Xi will catch those who does not support him.

So it goes like this. I support you. You promote me. I make $$$ from my post. For example, if I am a provincial governor, I can sell state owned land to developers. I sell prime land at cheap price to my buddies and family. So everybody is happy. Now, who does not want to climb up the party ranks? So they fight for positions. I need a patron. This means unyielding loyalty to whoever you attach yourself to.

But if your patron falls, so do you. The stakes are high. All the wealth you and your family accumulated will be confiscated. You will go to jail. So back to the civil wa in the CCP.

The period between now and the Party Congress next year will be very interesting and dangerous for the world. For the Jiang faction, its their last stand. Jiang Zemin is 95 years old. So he can't live for much longer. They need to get one of them in the top post. If they lose, Xi will show no mercy. They will be arrested for corruption. If they win, the Jiang faction will get their man in power. He will reward all those loyal to him with high posts.

This means he will get rid of Xi people who did not support him. They will be removed the usual way - corruption charges. Jail and confiscation. The stakes are high.

Meanwhile, to show that he is the best man for the job, Xi will be tough and nasty to the rest of the world. This is to show that he has made China great again. Taiwan will be threatened. Expect tensions in the Himalayas and the South China Sea.

..............................................................................................................................

I am currently reading a book called, "Red Roulette", by Desmond Shum. He was born in Shanghai, migrated to HK, educated in the US, worked for a American Private Equity firm, then went into business in china and made a fortune. He gave an insightful account of life at the top in China.

I will just give you an anecdote that illustrates the degree of loyaty expected. When he was dating his future wife, he was introduced to her parents for approval. Nothing unusual in China. But he had to pass one more test before she agreed to marry him. She asked him to meet a mysterious woman whom she refused to name.

They met and she approved. That women was Wen Jiabao's wife. In case you don't know, Wen Jiabao was once the Premier of China. His then girlfriend wanted to show her loyalty to her patron, Mrs Wen or "Auntie Zhang". Aunty Zhang was about to give her lucrative business deals and she had to trust her husband or its no go.

Its like the days of Kings and Emperors. Their courts were filled with people eager to prove their loyalty to the monarch, even to the point of dying for him. So in China, top figures would have a bunch of people totally loyal even seeking approval over the most intimate details of their lives. Maybe even willing to kill for them. If their patron falls, all of them will also fall.
Cass, you will say anything to make China look bad. What you say may be partially true, but that's not basically different from what happens in the US. It may look different, but it isn't. Nepotism and corruption in the US may be more "chinese" than you seem to think...

neverfail
Posts: 7601
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2016 3:47 am
Location: Singapore

Re: Is the CCP facing a civil war?

Post by neverfail » Thu Oct 28, 2021 4:48 am

Reading this discussion's title "Is the CCP facing a civil war?" and then reading Doc's quote about the murder of a low level CCP functionary and his wife in a provincial region moved me to wonder "what does this prove?". They seem to have a shooting mass-murder in the USA every other week but does that mean that America is about to erupt into civil war?

User avatar
cassowary
Posts: 5294
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 11:30 pm

Re: Is the CCP facing a civil war?

Post by cassowary » Thu Oct 28, 2021 5:18 am

Sertorio wrote:
Thu Oct 28, 2021 2:27 am
cassowary wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 11:43 pm
This case does not prove anything. But there is a power struggle going on in the CCP right now. The party has a few factions, the most powerful of which are the Xi faction and the Jiang Zemin faction.

Xi wants to extend his power beyond the 10 years that Deng decreeded. So next year is crucial. There will be a party congress to choose the next leader for the next 5 year term. Xi wants to be in power. The Jiang people are appalled. During Xi's tenure, he purged them using corruption as an excuse to get rid of them.

When Amrican politicians lose an election, they write a book, join a lobbying firm and make well paid speeches. But in China, when a politician loses a political fight, they go to jail. All their ill gotten gains are confiscated. Even their families will suffer. You must remember that everybody is corrupt in China. But Xi will catch those who does not support him.

So it goes like this. I support you. You promote me. I make $$$ from my post. For example, if I am a provincial governor, I can sell state owned land to developers. I sell prime land at cheap price to my buddies and family. So everybody is happy. Now, who does not want to climb up the party ranks? So they fight for positions. I need a patron. This means unyielding loyalty to whoever you attach yourself to.

But if your patron falls, so do you. The stakes are high. All the wealth you and your family accumulated will be confiscated. You will go to jail. So back to the civil wa in the CCP.

The period between now and the Party Congress next year will be very interesting and dangerous for the world. For the Jiang faction, its their last stand. Jiang Zemin is 95 years old. So he can't live for much longer. They need to get one of them in the top post. If they lose, Xi will show no mercy. They will be arrested for corruption. If they win, the Jiang faction will get their man in power. He will reward all those loyal to him with high posts.

This means he will get rid of Xi people who did not support him. They will be removed the usual way - corruption charges. Jail and confiscation. The stakes are high.

Meanwhile, to show that he is the best man for the job, Xi will be tough and nasty to the rest of the world. This is to show that he has made China great again. Taiwan will be threatened. Expect tensions in the Himalayas and the South China Sea.

..............................................................................................................................

I am currently reading a book called, "Red Roulette", by Desmond Shum. He was born in Shanghai, migrated to HK, educated in the US, worked for a American Private Equity firm, then went into business in china and made a fortune. He gave an insightful account of life at the top in China.

I will just give you an anecdote that illustrates the degree of loyaty expected. When he was dating his future wife, he was introduced to her parents for approval. Nothing unusual in China. But he had to pass one more test before she agreed to marry him. She asked him to meet a mysterious woman whom she refused to name.

They met and she approved. That women was Wen Jiabao's wife. In case you don't know, Wen Jiabao was once the Premier of China. His then girlfriend wanted to show her loyalty to her patron, Mrs Wen or "Auntie Zhang". Aunty Zhang was about to give her lucrative business deals and she had to trust her husband or its no go.

Its like the days of Kings and Emperors. Their courts were filled with people eager to prove their loyalty to the monarch, even to the point of dying for him. So in China, top figures would have a bunch of people totally loyal even seeking approval over the most intimate details of their lives. Maybe even willing to kill for them. If their patron falls, all of them will also fall.
Cass, you will say anything to make China look bad. What you say may be partially true, but that's not basically different from what happens in the US. It may look different, but it isn't. Nepotism and corruption in the US may be more "chinese" than you seem to think...
The US has a free press that reports on nepotism and corruption. China does not. So it’s harder to get away with it in the US. Thus there is less.
The Imp :D

User avatar
Doc
Posts: 6259
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 7:09 pm
Location: Cradle To Grave

Re: Is the CCP facing a civil war?

Post by Doc » Thu Oct 28, 2021 6:38 am

neverfail wrote:
Thu Oct 28, 2021 4:48 am
Reading this discussion's title "Is the CCP facing a civil war?" and then reading Doc's quote about the murder of a low level CCP functionary and his wife in a provincial region moved me to wonder "what does this prove?". They seem to have a shooting mass-murder in the USA every other week but does that mean that America is about to erupt into civil war?
THere has been a wave of knife attacks in China. Not all involving Communist party officials The real disturbing part is that the attacks, the one I have heard about are mostly the murders of children. Which seemingly translates into a large amount of dissatisfaction with life. China is ripe for a populist
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

User avatar
Doc
Posts: 6259
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 7:09 pm
Location: Cradle To Grave

Re: Is the CCP facing a civil war?

Post by Doc » Thu Oct 28, 2021 7:15 am

Sertorio wrote:
Thu Oct 28, 2021 2:27 am
cassowary wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 11:43 pm
This case does not prove anything. But there is a power struggle going on in the CCP right now. The party has a few factions, the most powerful of which are the Xi faction and the Jiang Zemin faction.

Xi wants to extend his power beyond the 10 years that Deng decreeded. So next year is crucial. There will be a party congress to choose the next leader for the next 5 year term. Xi wants to be in power. The Jiang people are appalled. During Xi's tenure, he purged them using corruption as an excuse to get rid of them.

When Amrican politicians lose an election, they write a book, join a lobbying firm and make well paid speeches. But in China, when a politician loses a political fight, they go to jail. All their ill gotten gains are confiscated. Even their families will suffer. You must remember that everybody is corrupt in China. But Xi will catch those who does not support him.

So it goes like this. I support you. You promote me. I make $$$ from my post. For example, if I am a provincial governor, I can sell state owned land to developers. I sell prime land at cheap price to my buddies and family. So everybody is happy. Now, who does not want to climb up the party ranks? So they fight for positions. I need a patron. This means unyielding loyalty to whoever you attach yourself to.

But if your patron falls, so do you. The stakes are high. All the wealth you and your family accumulated will be confiscated. You will go to jail. So back to the civil wa in the CCP.

The period between now and the Party Congress next year will be very interesting and dangerous for the world. For the Jiang faction, its their last stand. Jiang Zemin is 95 years old. So he can't live for much longer. They need to get one of them in the top post. If they lose, Xi will show no mercy. They will be arrested for corruption. If they win, the Jiang faction will get their man in power. He will reward all those loyal to him with high posts.

This means he will get rid of Xi people who did not support him. They will be removed the usual way - corruption charges. Jail and confiscation. The stakes are high.

Meanwhile, to show that he is the best man for the job, Xi will be tough and nasty to the rest of the world. This is to show that he has made China great again. Taiwan will be threatened. Expect tensions in the Himalayas and the South China Sea.

..............................................................................................................................

I am currently reading a book called, "Red Roulette", by Desmond Shum. He was born in Shanghai, migrated to HK, educated in the US, worked for a American Private Equity firm, then went into business in china and made a fortune. He gave an insightful account of life at the top in China.

I will just give you an anecdote that illustrates the degree of loyaty expected. When he was dating his future wife, he was introduced to her parents for approval. Nothing unusual in China. But he had to pass one more test before she agreed to marry him. She asked him to meet a mysterious woman whom she refused to name.

They met and she approved. That women was Wen Jiabao's wife. In case you don't know, Wen Jiabao was once the Premier of China. His then girlfriend wanted to show her loyalty to her patron, Mrs Wen or "Auntie Zhang". Aunty Zhang was about to give her lucrative business deals and she had to trust her husband or its no go.

Its like the days of Kings and Emperors. Their courts were filled with people eager to prove their loyalty to the monarch, even to the point of dying for him. So in China, top figures would have a bunch of people totally loyal even seeking approval over the most intimate details of their lives. Maybe even willing to kill for them. If their patron falls, all of them will also fall.
Cass, you will say anything to make China look bad. What you say may be partially true, but that's not basically different from what happens in the US. It may look different, but it isn't. Nepotism and corruption in the US may be more "chinese" than you seem to think...
Xi has not left China since the beginning of 2020. He is afraid to leave anyone else in charge. There have been assassination attempts against him. Many people in China are not happy with his rule. Especially those not aligned with him in the CCP.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

User avatar
SteveFoerster
Posts: 2518
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 7:17 pm
Location: Probably DCA, YYJ, or DOM
Contact:

Re: Is the CCP facing a civil war?

Post by SteveFoerster » Thu Oct 28, 2021 8:54 am

cassowary wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 11:43 pm
When Amrican politicians lose an election, they write a book, join a lobbying firm and make well paid speeches.
6th January 2021 notwithstanding?
Writer, technologist, educator, gadfly.
President of New World University: https://newworld.ac

User avatar
SteveFoerster
Posts: 2518
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 7:17 pm
Location: Probably DCA, YYJ, or DOM
Contact:

Re: Is the CCP facing a civil war?

Post by SteveFoerster » Thu Oct 28, 2021 8:57 am

Doc wrote:
Thu Oct 28, 2021 7:15 am
Xi has not left China since the beginning of 2020. He is afraid to leave anyone else in charge. There have been assassination attempts against him. Many people in China are not happy with his rule. Especially those not aligned with him in the CCP.
I'm not disagreeing that he's probably reviled by many. But not having left China while a global pandemic has been going on isn't exactly proof that he's afraid. Honestly, neither are assassination attempts, that's part of the territory when one is head of a world power.
Writer, technologist, educator, gadfly.
President of New World University: https://newworld.ac

User avatar
Doc
Posts: 6259
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 7:09 pm
Location: Cradle To Grave

Re: Is the CCP facing a civil war?

Post by Doc » Thu Oct 28, 2021 9:39 am

SteveFoerster wrote:
Thu Oct 28, 2021 8:57 am
Doc wrote:
Thu Oct 28, 2021 7:15 am
Xi has not left China since the beginning of 2020. He is afraid to leave anyone else in charge. There have been assassination attempts against him. Many people in China are not happy with his rule. Especially those not aligned with him in the CCP.
I'm not disagreeing that he's probably reviled by many. But not having left China while a global pandemic has been going on isn't exactly proof that he's afraid. Honestly, neither are assassination attempts, that's part of the territory when one is head of a world power.
The assassination attempts mostly came from within the CCP leadership. Some came before all the problems happened in China over the last couple of years that have turned up the heat of Xi

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-41691917

Top Chinese officials 'plotted to overthrow Xi Jinping'


Published

20 October 2017
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Power- ... n-attempts
Power struggle has Xi leery of coup, assassination attempts

KATSUJI NAKAZAWA, Nikkei senior staff writerMay 23, 2015 13:00 JST

More recent report

Assassination Attempts Against Xi Jinping Exposed | Suspected Coup D'état
Udumbara Udumbara
Sep 25, 2021 - 06:25

Assassination Attempts Against Xi Jinping Exposed | Suspected Coup D'état

Zhongnanhai Astrologer: CCP's internal power struggle getting intense, signs show highest officials may be investigated The power struggle between the various factions of the Chinese Communist Party has become increasingly fierce. After the Beidaihe conference, there have been rumors about whether Wang Yang would replace Xi Jinping as the next top leader of the CCP. On September 6, Xi appointed five generals, which was quite strange. On September 14, a mainland website published an article exposing a plot by a gang of high-ranking police officials to assassinate a top CCP official. Analysts deduced that the target of the assassination was Xi Jinping. On September 16, the CCP’s official magazine "Qiu Shi" published a long article, stating that “the Party commands the gun” is the foundation of the People’s Liberation Army and the soul of it; then the website of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) published an article on September 19, saying that there is no "iron hat prince", who cannot be punished in the anti-corruption campaign. Could it be that the party cannot command the gun anymore? On September 6, Xi Jinping promoted five general officers. In addition, because the central theater determines Beijing's safety, the replacement of commanders is also of great concern. The control of the PLA has always been Xi's weak point. The CCDI again mentioned no "Iron Hat prince", coupled with the mention of Lin Biao’s coup and the high-frequency posts from PLA newspapers and party magazines to emphasize “the party commands the gun”, the connotation is definitely not ordinary. Now let's talk about the coup d'etat. In the commercial area, Xi Jinping's struggle has also been ongoing. In November this year, the CCP will hold the sixth plenary session of the 19th Central Committee, focusing on the next leadership candidates. Whether Xi Jinping will succeed in his re-election at next year's 20th National Congress will depend on the outcome of his power struggle with the Jiang/Zeng faction. Therefore, in the coming period, the top-level internal power struggle within the CCP will be even more exciting.
Anti-CCP Song banned in China but with 19 million views in 10 days apparently very popular with Chinese expats.

“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

Post Reply