The US Doesn't Know What To Do About Taiwan

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SteveFoerster
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Re: The US Doesn't Know What To Do About Taiwan

Post by SteveFoerster » Fri Oct 08, 2021 8:38 am

Sertorio wrote:
Fri Oct 08, 2021 7:32 am
SteveFoerster wrote:
Fri Oct 08, 2021 5:48 am
Sertorio wrote:
Fri Oct 08, 2021 12:48 am
China putting an end to the Taiwan secession is no worse than the Union putting an end to the Confederate secession in the 19th century. And don't talk to me about slavery. Slavery was NOT the reason for the war, the right of states to secede was.
I was trying to figure out why you would suddenly parrot a KKK talking point out of the blue, but then I realised that when one's only article of faith is that the U.S. is always bad, one would have to make up reasons why the U.S. was the villain even during its own civil war. And in this case that paints you into the corner of having to deny what the war was really all about.
You know very well that there were slaves in the northern states. And that the slavery issue was only used as an excuse because it was difficult to deny the states' right to secede.
Slavery ended in the last of the Northern states in 1821. I expect you're confused because there were slaves in Southern states like Maryland, Delaware, Kentucky, and Missouri that did not secede or were occupied by the Union to prevent their legislatures from voting on secession.

Moreover, 1861 was not the first time the question of secession had ever come up in the U.S. During the War of 1812, the New England states considered seceding from the U.S. to preserve their trading relationship with Britain. And on the eve of the Civil War, there were some in the North who thought the Northern states should secede.
Sertorio wrote:
Fri Oct 08, 2021 7:32 am
I don't care what the KKK says on this matter.
How unsurprising.
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neverfail
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Re: The US Doesn't Know What To Do About Taiwan

Post by neverfail » Sat Oct 09, 2021 4:02 pm

Milo wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 4:54 pm

America will:
will be joined by her allies in a declaration of some sort (we never use the W word any more). Count on AUKUS, QSD, Singapore, NZ, Philippines, Indonesia, France and Other NATO. Who knows who else: China will have crashed the economy of everyone and the politicians sure as hell aren’t going to take the blame
make “the call” to Beijing.
Don't count on these others pitching in to help Taiwan survive should the PRC decide to go to war to subordinate it to the PRC and the will of its ruling PRC. Their responses have so far been nuanced and equivocal. Australia is the only one that would likely commit its armed forces to the defence of Taiwan and our myopic politicans would probably support the USA in any war in the Asia-Pacific region is cares to enter into; regardless of how ill advised or unjust. .

Why so? It is not because we are a nation of warmongers but because of a pair of false presumptions that has lingered in the minds of our politican and defence establishments ever since the end of WW2. The first is that the Yanks are bound to win every time and the second is that siding with them earns their eternal gratitude and that in turn makes Australia safer from attack by foreign powers.

Considering what we stand to lose I question whether Taiwan is worth the risk for Australia of siding with the US in a war with the PRC over it.

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Re: The Chinese civil war has still not ended.

Post by neverfail » Sun Oct 10, 2021 9:16 pm

An representative of the government in Taipei based in Sydney puts her country's case forward;
It’s time for the world to help Taiwan step out of China’s shadow

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/ ... 58ypr.html

Sunday is the 110th National Day of the Republic of China (Taiwan). Most of the world has come to know us as simply Taiwan, yet even some are weary to call us that. We have our own judiciary, elections, military and currency. For as long as our existence, we have never fallen under another country’s jurisdiction.

The presence of our sovereignty could not be less subtle, yet we have constantly lived under the looming shadow of China’s oppression and intimidation.

For a country that claims us as part of its own, our beliefs and values could not be further apart. Over the past few decades, Taiwan has embraced its democratic values and flourished. Taiwan now ranks 7th and 11th respectively in the Freedom House report and the Economic Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index, leading the world as one of the most free and democratic countries.
There is one thing wrong however. "Sunday is the 110th National Day of the Republic of China" Ms Fan contends. Count back 110 years from now and it brings you to the year 1911: the year in which the last Manchu emperor was deposed and the Republic of China was inagurated by Dr. Sun Yat Sen.

Herein lies the obcession of the PRC regime on the mainland with ridding the world of it by incorporating Taiwan (forced or otherwise) into its domain. As far as the rest of the world is concerned the (1927 - 1949) Chinese civil war ended when the Communist side came to power in Beijing and chased the remnant of the Kuomintang (Republic of China) regime off the mainland into permanent exile on Taiwan. But that would not be how they would see it the top echelon of the Chinese Communist Party. As long as the Republic of China still exists offshore on Taiwan the final battle of the Chinese civil war will still not have been won.

It means, in other words, that off the Fujian coast is this rival to the CCP for the loyalty and allegance of the Chinese people. It means that as long as the R of C still exists the CCP cannot feel that its grip on China is secure.

It means that on some future occasion when the PRC has entered a period of internal weakness and vulnerablity (Chinese policy makers think far ahead), Taiwan could act as the rallying point and nucleus for rebel forces that could plunge China back into renewed civil war. With foreign backing Taiwan and the revolt it formented would then be a real threat to the existence of the PRC.

(The fears of the PRC leadership would likely be informed from the long historical record of their country by past times of division. Possibly even by the Warring States period. There is nothing I know of in Marx that could have guided them in this.)
.......................................................................................................................................

The ideal outcome as of now would be for the regime in Taiwan to abolish the title Republic of China and rename itself the Republic of Taiwan: renouncing all future claims to be the legetimate government of China. If it could only convince the PRC establishment that it is only a harmless small island state of China's coast of regional Chinese heritage then all may be well.

Taiwan's Western backers should make this a condition of their support and if accepted repudiate their recognition of Taiwan as "part of China" and boldly enter into diplomatic ties with Taiwan..

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Re: The Chinese civil war has still not ended.

Post by SteveFoerster » Mon Oct 11, 2021 6:13 am

neverfail wrote:
Sun Oct 10, 2021 9:16 pm
Chinese policy makers think far ahead
People say that, but I don't see Chinese policymakers being any better at looking far into the future than anyone else. One Child is a glaring example. Oppressing Hong Kong is another, as it was an emotional decision that closed the door on ever convincing the Taiwanese to join the mainland voluntarily.
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Milo
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Re: The Chinese civil war has still not ended.

Post by Milo » Mon Oct 11, 2021 1:17 pm

SteveFoerster wrote:
Mon Oct 11, 2021 6:13 am
neverfail wrote:
Sun Oct 10, 2021 9:16 pm
Chinese policy makers think far ahead
People say that, but I don't see Chinese policymakers being any better at looking far into the future than anyone else. One Child is a glaring example. Oppressing Hong Kong is another, as it was an emotional decision that closed the door on ever convincing the Taiwanese to join the mainland voluntarily.
Yes, I would’ve thought this sort of orientalism was long gone but it still seems to have plenty of fans.

On a related note, China has backed off on its rhetoric about Taiwan considerably since a massive demonstration of naval might by the US and multiple allies, yet all the fans of China’s supposed nuance and sophistication appear to have nothing to say about it.

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Re: The Chinese civil war has still not ended.

Post by neverfail » Mon Oct 11, 2021 2:58 pm

SteveFoerster wrote:
Mon Oct 11, 2021 6:13 am
neverfail wrote:
Sun Oct 10, 2021 9:16 pm
Chinese policy makers think far ahead
People say that, but I don't see Chinese policymakers being any better at looking far into the future than anyone else. One Child is a glaring example. Oppressing Hong Kong is another, as it was an emotional decision that closed the door on ever convincing the Taiwanese to join the mainland voluntarily.
I cannot argue against any of that Steve. Especially your contention that Beijing's betrayal of the international committment it entered into at the time of Britain's handover of Hong Kong re. HK autonomy has warned Taiwan's population that you cannot trust the CCP to honour its agreements. The CCP, being a creature of this world, does not possess the omnicience of God Almighty.

However, from your silence on the matter it seems you have no argument against my contention that Beijing's eagerness to annex Taiwan represents "unfinished business" left over from the Communist victory on the mainland in 1949.

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Re: The Chinese civil war has still not ended.

Post by SteveFoerster » Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:13 pm

neverfail wrote:
Mon Oct 11, 2021 2:58 pm
SteveFoerster wrote:
Mon Oct 11, 2021 6:13 am
neverfail wrote:
Sun Oct 10, 2021 9:16 pm
Chinese policy makers think far ahead
People say that, but I don't see Chinese policymakers being any better at looking far into the future than anyone else. One Child is a glaring example. Oppressing Hong Kong is another, as it was an emotional decision that closed the door on ever convincing the Taiwanese to join the mainland voluntarily.
I cannot argue against any of that Steve. Especially your contention that Beijing's betrayal of the international committment it entered into at the time of Britain's handover of Hong Kong re. HK autonomy has warned Taiwan's population that you cannot trust the CCP to honour its agreements. The CCP, being a creature of this world, does not possess the omnicience of God Almighty.
No, but foreseeing what their actions in Hong Kong would do to their reputation hardly required a violation of Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle -- it was quite obvious.
neverfail wrote:
Mon Oct 11, 2021 2:58 pm
However, from your silence on the matter it seems you have no argument against my contention that Beijing's eagerness to annex Taiwan represents "unfinished business" left over from the Communist victory on the mainland in 1949.
I didn't realise you were expecting me to supply one, especially since I don't really disagree with that. Although I expect sabre-rattling about Taiwan is more of an excuse for a diversionary foreign policy than it a sincerely held ideological belief on Xi's part.
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Re: The Chinese civil war has still not ended.

Post by Sertorio » Tue Oct 12, 2021 1:28 am

SteveFoerster wrote:
Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:13 pm

No, but foreseeing what their actions in Hong Kong would do to their reputation hardly required a violation of Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle -- it was quite obvious.
Besides whatever legitimate reasons some Hong Kong people might have had to demand more democracy, there is absolutely no doubt that the troubles in Hong Kong were stirred by the US and the UK in order to make life difficult for China. Beijing had to respond, and they did. And the US and the UK couldn't give a damn about the fact that people in Hong Kong ended up worse off. Because they never cared about people's rights, only about making China look bad.

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Re: The Chinese civil war has still not ended.

Post by Sertorio » Tue Oct 12, 2021 1:32 am

SteveFoerster wrote:
Mon Oct 11, 2021 6:13 am
neverfail wrote:
Sun Oct 10, 2021 9:16 pm
Chinese policy makers think far ahead
People say that, but I don't see Chinese policymakers being any better at looking far into the future than anyone else. One Child is a glaring example.
One child policy was a great success in slowing China's demographic growth. Just compare China with India, and you will see how successful it was. And when it became obvious that population should stabilize, China ended the one child policy. All very rational.

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Re: The Chinese civil war has still not ended.

Post by SteveFoerster » Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:09 am

Sertorio wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 1:28 am
SteveFoerster wrote:
Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:13 pm

No, but foreseeing what their actions in Hong Kong would do to their reputation hardly required a violation of Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle -- it was quite obvious.
Besides whatever legitimate reasons some Hong Kong people might have had to demand more democracy, there is absolutely no doubt that the troubles in Hong Kong were stirred by the US and the UK in order to make life difficult for China. Beijing had to respond, and they did. And the US and the UK couldn't give a damn about the fact that people in Hong Kong ended up worse off. Because they never cared about people's rights, only about making China look bad.
No other country is required to make China look bad. They do just fine with that on their own.

Besides, you're the last one who gets to talk about not giving a damn about victims of that dreadful regime.
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