Why America failed in Afghanistan

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neverfail
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Re: Why America failed in Afghanistan

Post by neverfail » Wed Oct 06, 2021 5:10 am

Have you taken a look at photos of the Panjshir Valley Cass? No way you could install a "great airport" in the midst of that rugged terrain.

https://www.gettyimages.com.au/photos/panjshir-valley

cassowary wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 1:01 am
I think you can. I see flat ground on the valley floor.
..and then there is the matter of location. The Panjshir is located distant from international borders. Plenty of time for Taliban with SAM missile launchers to shoot down incoming planes if they arrive without Talaban permission. Since Afghanistan is landlocked Americans would need a friendly bordering country to permit them to overfly their airspace first.

No Cass, the matter is absurd. The Americans have no intention of ever coming back - and that's that!

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Re: Why America failed in Afghanistan

Post by cassowary » Wed Oct 06, 2021 6:05 am

neverfail wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 5:10 am
Have you taken a look at photos of the Panjshir Valley Cass? No way you could install a "great airport" in the midst of that rugged terrain.

https://www.gettyimages.com.au/photos/panjshir-valley

cassowary wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 1:01 am
I think you can. I see flat ground on the valley floor.
..and then there is the matter of location. The Panjshir is located distant from international borders. Plenty of time for Taliban with SAM missile launchers to shoot down incoming planes if they arrive without Talaban permission. Since Afghanistan is landlocked Americans would need a friendly bordering country to permit them to overfly their airspace first.

No Cass, the matter is absurd. The Americans have no intention of ever coming back - and that's that!
The US has the capability to take out the SAM missiles.

I agree that as of now, the US has no intention of ever going back. But I was arguing that the US not leave completely. Instead it should have retained a small military presence in the easily defended Panjshir valley .

As for overflights over Pakistani airspace, there was no problem with Bargram airport which they used for the last 20 years.

They should have retained the strategic Valley so that in the event of the collapse of Afghanistan, they still retain a foothold where the Afghan government can shelter. This also means that they have the option any time to return by building up its forces in the Panjshir Valley.

The possibility of a returning US military will give the elected government holed up in the Valley a bargaining chip. For that to happen, you need an airport large enough for cargo planes.
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SteveFoerster
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Re: Why America failed in Afghanistan

Post by SteveFoerster » Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:05 am

neverfail wrote:
Tue Oct 05, 2021 6:35 pm
SteveFoerster wrote:
Tue Oct 05, 2021 6:41 am

Agreeing to Bin Laden being sent to a country where his extraction would have been relatively easy would hardly have been "turning the other cheek"; on the contrary it would have led to his facing justice years earlier than actually happened, without throwing trillions of dollars away on a fool's errand.
I would have thought that Qatar would have been a difficult place to get the bastard extradited from.
In diplomacy, ultimately most everything is negotiable.
neverfail wrote:
Tue Oct 05, 2021 6:35 pm
( :o By the way: are you suggesting that the trioka of Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld were a pack of fools? :) )
Since I don't believe they were particularly deterred by the financial or human cost of their decisions, more that they're the ones who fooled others.
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Doc
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Re: Why America failed in Afghanistan

Post by Doc » Wed Oct 06, 2021 2:23 pm

SteveFoerster wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:05 am
neverfail wrote:
Tue Oct 05, 2021 6:35 pm
SteveFoerster wrote:
Tue Oct 05, 2021 6:41 am

Agreeing to Bin Laden being sent to a country where his extraction would have been relatively easy would hardly have been "turning the other cheek"; on the contrary it would have led to his facing justice years earlier than actually happened, without throwing trillions of dollars away on a fool's errand.
I would have thought that Qatar would have been a difficult place to get the bastard extradited from.
In diplomacy, ultimately most everything is negotiable.
Isn't that what Chamberland thought? IE There was a specific reason why the Taliban offered to send Bin Laden to Qatar. Does it strike anyone as strange that the Taliban puts so much faith in Qatar, whose ruler own Al Jazeera. WHich has also been know to inflame tensions between the west and the Muslim world?
neverfail wrote:
Tue Oct 05, 2021 6:35 pm
( :o By the way: are you suggesting that the trioka of Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld were a pack of fools? :) )
Since I don't believe they were particularly deterred by the financial or human cost of their decisions, more that they're the ones who fooled others.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

neverfail
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Re: Why America failed in Afghanistan

Post by neverfail » Wed Oct 06, 2021 3:29 pm

cassowary wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 6:05 am
neverfail wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 5:10 am

No Cass, the matter is absurd. The Americans have no intention of ever coming back - and that's that!
I agree that as of now, the US has no intention of ever going back. But I was arguing that the US not leave completely. Instead it should have retained a small military presence in the easily defended Panjshir valley .
What for? In what way is Afghanistan of any geostrategic value to the United States?
They should have retained the strategic Valley so that in the event of the collapse of Afghanistan, they still retain a foothold where the Afghan government can shelter.

The possibility of a returning US military will give the elected government holed up in the Valley a bargaining chip.
The swiftness with which the Afghan government folded with the withdrawl of US and allied forces exposed for all to see what a fraud that government was. It never commanded the respect or allegance of Afghanistan's populace. It never "gelled" with their society at large. What would have been the point in preserving it?

The Taliban? If after 20 years of being a protectorate of the US and allies Afghan society (if their is such an entity which I doubt) could still not of its own volition rally the willpower and orgasnisation sufficient to successfully oppose a return takeover by the Taliban then it deserves nothing less than to be ruled by the Taliban.

One might even describe the Taliban (or something akin to it) as the "natural government" for such a backward land of Islamic heritage and the government represented by presidents Karzai and Ghani as an aberration nursed into being and maintaIined by the intrusion of alien power politics - an unnatural construct in such an environment.

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SteveFoerster
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Re: Why America failed in Afghanistan

Post by SteveFoerster » Wed Oct 06, 2021 4:56 pm

Doc wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 2:23 pm
SteveFoerster wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:05 am
In diplomacy, ultimately most everything is negotiable.
Isn't that what Chamberland thought? IE There was a specific reason why the Taliban offered to send Bin Laden to Qatar. Does it strike anyone as strange that the Taliban puts so much faith in Qatar, whose ruler own Al Jazeera. WHich has also been know to inflame tensions between the west and the Muslim world?
You'll note I said "most" everything, and that was specifically to exclude existential-level scenarios. Since we're going all Godwin's Law here, Chamberlain foolishly failed to realise that he was in a situation that threatened the very existence of the UK.

As for why Qatar, I expect they hoped it would rid them of the hot potato (bin Ladin) that they knew otherwise would cause the Americans to come for them without the loss of face from handing him over to them directly. Given their ideology I expect that handing him over directly would have let to too much internal division.

And as for the separate issue of al-Jazeera supposedly inflaming tensions between the West and the Islamic world, it seems both sides are perfectly capable of doing that without assistance.
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Re: Why America failed in Afghanistan

Post by SteveFoerster » Wed Oct 06, 2021 4:57 pm

neverfail wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 3:29 pm
cassowary wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 6:05 am
neverfail wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 5:10 am

No Cass, the matter is absurd. The Americans have no intention of ever coming back - and that's that!
I agree that as of now, the US has no intention of ever going back. But I was arguing that the US not leave completely. Instead it should have retained a small military presence in the easily defended Panjshir valley .
What for? In what way is Afghanistan of any geostrategic value to the United States?
Exactly.
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Doc
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Re: Why America failed in Afghanistan

Post by Doc » Wed Oct 06, 2021 8:52 pm

SteveFoerster wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 4:56 pm
Doc wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 2:23 pm
SteveFoerster wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:05 am
In diplomacy, ultimately most everything is negotiable.
Isn't that what Chamberland thought? IE There was a specific reason why the Taliban offered to send Bin Laden to Qatar. Does it strike anyone as strange that the Taliban puts so much faith in Qatar, whose ruler own Al Jazeera. Which has also been know to inflame tensions between the west and the Muslim world?
You'll note I said "most" everything, and that was specifically to exclude existential-level scenarios. Since we're going all Godwin's Law here, Chamberlain foolishly failed to realize that he was in a situation that threatened the very existence of the UK.
The cost of conducting the terror atacks against the WTC and the Pentagon is estimated to be between 300 and 400 thousand dollars. Besides loss of human life 911 caused between around 4 or 5 billion dollars in physical property damage. It cost trillions in economic damage. Overall the damage to the world is incalculable It was an existential threat to human civilization. And note it was conducted by people that want to live in the 13th century.
As for why Qatar, I expect they hoped it would rid them of the hot potato (bin Ladin) that they knew otherwise would cause the Americans to come for them without the loss of face from handing him over to them directly. Given their ideology I expect that handing him over directly would have let to too much internal division.
These are people that in the last month behead a pregnant woman because she was a police officer in Afghanistan. Why do you think fear of loss of face prevented them from doing anything?
And as for the separate issue of al-Jazeera supposedly inflaming tensions between the West and the Islamic world, it seems both sides are perfectly capable of doing that without assistance.
In war it is killed or be killed. Bin Laden declared war against the US in 1996. Very few people paid attention.

I don't think we should have stayed in Afghanistan a minute longer then we had to to wreck Al Qaeda. But we had to go in.

It was said at the time that Jiang Zemin watched the 911 attacks over and over and over. He undoubtedly saw weakness. But then the US set out to destroy AL Qaeda. In 2008 during the financial crisis the CCP decided it was time to start asserting itself towards its goal of world domination. Like it or not, such is the world.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Doc
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Re: Why America failed in Afghanistan

Post by Doc » Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:11 pm

SteveFoerster wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 4:57 pm
neverfail wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 3:29 pm
cassowary wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 6:05 am
neverfail wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 5:10 am

No Cass, the matter is absurd. The Americans have no intention of ever coming back - and that's that!
I agree that as of now, the US has no intention of ever going back. But I was arguing that the US not leave completely. Instead it should have retained a small military presence in the easily defended Panjshir valley .
What for? In what way is Afghanistan of any geostrategic value to the United States?
Exactly.
What is the strategic value of the EU to the United States? If the US has no strategic interest in Europe other than Air Strip One then Afghanistan is of no geo-strategic value to the US at all. Seems like the argument could be made for or against that strategic value. I will leave it for someone else to make it.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Sertorio
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Re: Why America failed in Afghanistan

Post by Sertorio » Thu Oct 07, 2021 1:59 am

Doc wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:11 pm
SteveFoerster wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 4:57 pm
neverfail wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 3:29 pm
cassowary wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 6:05 am
neverfail wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 5:10 am

No Cass, the matter is absurd. The Americans have no intention of ever coming back - and that's that!
I agree that as of now, the US has no intention of ever going back. But I was arguing that the US not leave completely. Instead it should have retained a small military presence in the easily defended Panjshir valley .
What for? In what way is Afghanistan of any geostrategic value to the United States?
Exactly.
What is the strategic value of the EU to the United States? If the US has no strategic interest in Europe other than Air Strip One then Afghanistan is of no geo-strategic value to the US at all. Seems like the argument could be made for or against that strategic value. I will leave it for someone else to make it.
The US objective in Europe is to prevent Europe developing a partnership with Russia. American occupation forces in Europe are to make sure that Europe remains under America's thumb. That's why NATO exists.

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