China's self-inflicted energy shortage.

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Doc
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Re: China's self-inflicted energy shortage.

Post by Doc » Tue Oct 05, 2021 8:53 am

cassowary wrote:
Tue Oct 05, 2021 7:44 am
Doc wrote:
Mon Oct 04, 2021 3:37 pm
cassowary wrote:
Mon Oct 04, 2021 8:33 am
neverfail wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 3:00 pm
cassowary wrote:
Mon Oct 04, 2021 8:33 am

Because Australia is the only known source of quality coal... :roll:
Because it is the most cost-effective supplier and has a coal mining and delivery infrastructure on a scale that can supply China with the quantities of coal it needs.

Since the rift with Australia the PRC has tried inporting coal from Russia: but to deliver to users that requires long rail journeys overland from the Russian mines with the result that Russian coal in China costs twice as much as Australian coal (which is delivered by sea at a much lower average cost per tonne per kilometer). Xi must have ordered those purchases as a fillip to China's Eurasian ally: a political purchase as distinct from one that makes economic sense.

The PRC also is importing more coal from Indonesia - whose exports of thermal coal even before the PRC rift with Australia were apparently bigger than ours. I have been told that the problem with Indonesian black coal is that it is sulphur laden crap that burns at a low temperature. So much so that Chinese users have found that to be any good Indo coal needs to be mixed with other coal with a higher BTU yield of heat energy to boost the combined heat yield to a level where it can heat up the water needed to drive the generators in their power stations. Indo coal apparently has only one redeeming characteristic - it is cheap. So by mixing Indo coal with higher BTU grades of coal (like ours) according to a known ratio they have found that it lowers the average fuel cost needed to generate a given number of kilowatt hours of electric power.

there is no way around it - China needs our coal!

Eh, What's up Doc?

Take a look at how our CNA report the same story about the black outs in China:



Singapore's top TV station is known for its accuracy and impartial reporting. But it's so boring. I rather watch TFIGlobal even though I know it likes to exaggerate, sensationalize and does not let accuracy get in the way of reporting a good story. But that's Indian news. Its all about viewership and advertisng $$$. Take it with a pinch of salt Doc. Then check with CNA to make sure they got the facts right.
Like Neverfail and you yourself said Coal has no good option to replace Australian coal. IN the CNA story they talk about ramping up production of coal. The problem is Chinese coal is apparently low energy coal. Chinese power plants are largely designed for higher BTW content coal. Changing the design of how a coal fire power plant is set up is not straight forward In my home town there is a trash to steam plant. It also burns coal. One day the conveyor for the trash broke down. The guy whose responsibility was to get it fix said they had to burn Natural ga at many thousand of dollars an hours rather than just the coal because the coal without the trash burned to hot. It would melt the boiler.
Yep. Xi has to get back to Australian coal. But that will be a great embarassment for him or as they say in China, a great loss of face. As I said in another thread, Xi faces the perfect storm - the energy crisis, the property crash, trade war, ageing population and his foolish, paranoid crackdown on the private sector.
Maybe Xi has no intention of fixing this. Maybe it is his version of the great reset.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

neverfail
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Re: China's self-inflicted energy shortage.

Post by neverfail » Tue Oct 05, 2021 6:45 pm

Doc wrote:
Tue Oct 05, 2021 8:53 am
Maybe Xi has no intention of fixing this. Maybe it is his version of the great reset.
Maybe too Xi is plain ignorent of even the basics of economics? I am convinced that a surprising number of world leaders are.

(I do not know about you Doc but even though I should know better even I, as a default position, are inclined to see our political top man as an expert in everything. I am sure that people everywhere are like that. I am equally sure that our political leaders encourage that to foster the PR impression of being authoratitive. Yes in practice you find that their grasp on things is limited; often extremely so and they rely heavily on their advisors and bureaucrats.)

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Doc
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Re: China's self-inflicted energy shortage.

Post by Doc » Tue Oct 05, 2021 8:18 pm

neverfail wrote:
Tue Oct 05, 2021 6:45 pm
Doc wrote:
Tue Oct 05, 2021 8:53 am
Maybe Xi has no intention of fixing this. Maybe it is his version of the great reset.
Maybe too Xi is plain ignorent of even the basics of economics? I am convinced that a surprising number of world leaders are.

(I do not know about you Doc but even though I should know better even I, as a default position, are inclined to see our political top man as an expert in everything. I am sure that people everywhere are like that. I am equally sure that our political leaders encourage that to foster the PR impression of being authoratitive. Yes in practice you find that their grasp on things is limited; often extremely so and they rely heavily on their advisors and bureaucrats.)
In CCP controlled China the supreme leader is always right. Even when he is wrong.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Re: China's self-inflicted energy shortage.

Post by cassowary » Tue Oct 05, 2021 9:55 pm

Doc wrote:
Tue Oct 05, 2021 8:18 pm
neverfail wrote:
Tue Oct 05, 2021 6:45 pm
Doc wrote:
Tue Oct 05, 2021 8:53 am
Maybe Xi has no intention of fixing this. Maybe it is his version of the great reset.
Maybe too Xi is plain ignorent of even the basics of economics? I am convinced that a surprising number of world leaders are.

(I do not know about you Doc but even though I should know better even I, as a default position, are inclined to see our political top man as an expert in everything. I am sure that people everywhere are like that. I am equally sure that our political leaders encourage that to foster the PR impression of being authoratitive. Yes in practice you find that their grasp on things is limited; often extremely so and they rely heavily on their advisors and bureaucrats.)
In CCP controlled China the supreme leader is always right. Even when he is wrong.
In a authoritarian state, the bureaucrats tell the leaders what they want to hear. So Xi may not be aware of everything that is going on.

I learned this from my own personal experience. Even our LKY got fooled. I was working for our housing department as a young man when LKY was PM. He promised the voters to deliver x thousand public housing aparments. So all of us worked hard with the contractors to deliver.

Three months before the deadline, it was clear we were not going to make it. Our chief was told. His face was ashen for LKY did not tolerate failure. There was silence in the room. You could hear a pin drop. A few months later, it was announced that they hit the target. How was this possible?

I visited a work site. The contractor was laughing. The contractors were told to "hand over" the projects and the architect certified the projects as "completed" even though they were not. The architect gave them a long list of "defects" they must correct. The "defects", which in normal circumstances should be minor, now were major things like no roofs, no doors, no elevators that made the buildings habitable. Our boss got a medal. LKY did not know. The newspapers did not write about it.

Eventually, all the missing things were installed. Things are different now. Such things cannot happen any longer because we are not longer authoritarian. You can be sure that it will be in the newspapers.
The Imp :D

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Re: China's self-inflicted energy shortage.

Post by neverfail » Tue Oct 05, 2021 11:03 pm

cassowary wrote:
Tue Oct 05, 2021 9:55 pm

In a authoritarian state, the bureaucrats tell the leaders what they want to hear. So Xi may not be aware of everything that is going on.

I learned this from my own personal experience. Even our LKY got fooled. I was working for our housing department as a young man when LKY was PM. He promised the voters to deliver x thousand public housing aparments. So all of us worked hard with the contractors to deliver.

Three months before the deadline, it was clear we were not going to make it. Our chief was told. His face was ashen for LKY did not tolerate failure. There was silence in the room. You could hear a pin drop. A few months later, it was announced that they hit the target. How was this possible?

I visited a work site. The contractor was laughing. The contractors were told to "hand over" the projects and the architect certified the projects as "completed" even though they were not. The architect gave them a long list of "defects" they must correct. The "defects", which in normal circumstances should be minor, now were major things like no roofs, no doors, no elevators that made the buildings habitable. Our boss got a medal. LKY did not know. The newspapers did not write about it.

Eventually, all the missing things were installed. Things are different now. Such things cannot happen any longer because we are not longer authoritarian. You can be sure that it will be in the newspapers.
A vivid illustration of what can happen Cass - and thanks for sharing it.

Even in a country like mine where we have long been blessed with freely and fairly elected government as often as not politicans in government will indulge in blame shifting rather than accept responsibility when things go wrong (while the ones in Opposition will just as earnestly practice blame allocation ;) ). In a place like the PRC you can be certain that the top people will have turned blame shifting a science: someone lower down in the heirarchy of power will be turned into the patsy.

(Like when they blamed the "gang of four" headed by Mao's wife after Mao's death for the turmoil of the Grerat Proletarian Cultural Revolution rather than own up to Mao having manipulated the country into that chaos in an attempt to wrest back the power his top Party colleagues had taken away from him after the failure of the Grrat Leap Forward. They could not afford to admit that it was a power play by Mao lest the posthumous lowering of Mao's reputation as founder of the PRC called one party rule by the CCP into question.)

Regardless of whether in a democracy or an authoritarian one party state politics is still a dirty game.

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cassowary
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Re: China's self-inflicted energy shortage.

Post by cassowary » Wed Oct 06, 2021 1:07 am

neverfail wrote:
Tue Oct 05, 2021 11:03 pm
cassowary wrote:
Tue Oct 05, 2021 9:55 pm

In a authoritarian state, the bureaucrats tell the leaders what they want to hear. So Xi may not be aware of everything that is going on.

I learned this from my own personal experience. Even our LKY got fooled. I was working for our housing department as a young man when LKY was PM. He promised the voters to deliver x thousand public housing aparments. So all of us worked hard with the contractors to deliver.

Three months before the deadline, it was clear we were not going to make it. Our chief was told. His face was ashen for LKY did not tolerate failure. There was silence in the room. You could hear a pin drop. A few months later, it was announced that they hit the target. How was this possible?

I visited a work site. The contractor was laughing. The contractors were told to "hand over" the projects and the architect certified the projects as "completed" even though they were not. The architect gave them a long list of "defects" they must correct. The "defects", which in normal circumstances should be minor, now were major things like no roofs, no doors, no elevators that made the buildings habitable. Our boss got a medal. LKY did not know. The newspapers did not write about it.

Eventually, all the missing things were installed. Things are different now. Such things cannot happen any longer because we are not longer authoritarian. You can be sure that it will be in the newspapers.
A vivid illustration of what can happen Cass - and thanks for sharing it.

Even in a country like mine where we have long been blessed with freely and fairly elected government as often as not politicans in government will indulge in blame shifting rather than accept responsibility when things go wrong (while the ones in Opposition will just as earnestly practice blame allocation ;) ). In a place like the PRC you can be certain that the top people will have turned blame shifting a science: someone lower down in the heirarchy of power will be turned into the patsy.

(Like when they blamed the "gang of four" headed by Mao's wife after Mao's death for the turmoil of the Grerat Proletarian Cultural Revolution rather than own up to Mao having manipulated the country into that chaos in an attempt to wrest back the power his top Party colleagues had taken away from him after the failure of the Grrat Leap Forward. They could not afford to admit that it was a power play by Mao lest the posthumous lowering of Mao's reputation as founder of the PRC called one party rule by the CCP into question.)

Regardless of whether in a democracy or an authoritarian one party state politics is still a dirty game.
Shifting blame, as you say, happens in all countries. But deceiving superiors is something possible only in a country without free speech. Thus Mao believed that the harvests were bountiful when the peasants were actually starving.

Let me guess. Could it be that Xi told his bureaucrats to obtain coal from other foreign and local sources because he didn’t want to buy Australian coal?

Then they failed and dared not tell him the truth?
The Imp :D

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Sertorio
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Re: China's self-inflicted energy shortage.

Post by Sertorio » Wed Oct 06, 2021 1:43 am

The more educated people are the harder it is for governments to fool them. That's why most governments do not seem too keen on furthering the education of their youngsters. As long as they can read and write and have spent a certain number of years in school, governments are happy. Whether youngsters get a good education or not in the course of those years seems less important.

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Re: China's self-inflicted energy shortage.

Post by cassowary » Wed Oct 06, 2021 2:35 am

Sertorio wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 1:43 am
The more educated people are the harder it is for governments to fool them. That's why most governments do not seem too keen on furthering the education of their youngsters. As long as they can read and write and have spent a certain number of years in school, governments are happy. Whether youngsters get a good education or not in the course of those years seems less important.
But you are well educated but are fooled by socialism.
The Imp :D

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Re: Now it's India's turn?

Post by neverfail » Wed Oct 06, 2021 4:59 am

https://asiatimes.com/2021/10/coal-shor ... -darkness/

Coal shortage could plunge India into darkness


At the end of last month, most coal-fired power plants had barely four days’ worth of stock.
The PRC boycott is not going to send our coal companies out of business any time soon.

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Re: China's self-inflicted energy shortage.

Post by Sertorio » Wed Oct 06, 2021 5:03 am

cassowary wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 2:35 am
Sertorio wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 1:43 am
The more educated people are the harder it is for governments to fool them. That's why most governments do not seem too keen on furthering the education of their youngsters. As long as they can read and write and have spent a certain number of years in school, governments are happy. Whether youngsters get a good education or not in the course of those years seems less important.
But you are well educated but are fooled by socialism.
I am not fooled. Contrarily to you I am smart enough to know what socialism is all about and therefore I am in its favour... :twisted:

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