China's self-inflicted energy shortage.

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neverfail
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Re: China's self-inflicted energy shortage.

Post by neverfail » Thu Sep 30, 2021 2:23 pm

cassowary wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 7:11 am

Could it be that Xi's underlings are telling him that China has ample energy resources including coal and nobody is going to freeze this winter?
The bullshit factor at play?

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Doc
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Re: China's self-inflicted energy shortage.

Post by Doc » Thu Sep 30, 2021 2:26 pm

cassowary wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 1:29 pm
Doc wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 7:39 am
cassowary wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 7:11 am
neverfail wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 5:30 am
cassowary wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 5:16 am
Sertorio wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 1:38 am
As I mentioned before, on another thread,



Eventually coal will not be used to generate energy, so Australia can keep it and contribute to improving the climate crisis on the planet...
Meanwhile, winter is coming. If Xi does not get his act together, millions could freeze as price of coal soars in China because he refused to buy cheap Australian coal.
Exactly! "China might become the birthplace of a revolution in the atomic energy industry" That's might, not a certainty. Meantime China still gets around three quarters of its energy from coal and will (not might) need to do so for this coming northern winter as a matter of urgency.

To think that all Xi Jinpeng needs to do to secure that needed Australian coal is to eat humble pie. :D
Maybe Xi expects Australia will come begging to him to buy coal. :D

.....................................................................................................................................

As I have said here in this forum many times before, the weakness of dictatorships is that the top guy is the last to know the truth as their underlings tell him what he wants to hear.

Thus Mussolini's generals told him what a good job they had done when they showed him thousands of planes. Only they neglected to tell him that half of them could not fly.

Thus Mao's underlings told him the harvests were bountiful and the peasants were well fed when actually they were starving.

Could it be that Xi's underlings are telling him that China has ample energy resources including coal and nobody is going to freeze this winter?

On the other hand maybe Xi is jealous of Kim jong un. Whose people "love" him so much they are willing to survive by eating grass rather overthrow the "dear leader."
Oh yeah. Fatty Kim has a harem of beautiful girls to serve him.

Yeah while everyone else in North Korea has Haram :D
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

neverfail
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Re: China's self-inflicted energy shortage.

Post by neverfail » Thu Sep 30, 2021 3:00 pm

cassowary wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 5:16 am

Because Australia is the only known source of quality coal... :roll:
Because it is the most cost-effective supplier and has a coal mining and delivery infrastructure on a scale that can supply China with the quantities of coal it needs.

Since the rift with Australia the PRC has tried inporting coal from Russia: but to deliver to users that requires long rail journeys overland from the Russian mines with the result that Russian coal in China costs twice as much as Australian coal (which is delivered by sea at a much lower average cost per tonne per kilometer). Xi must have ordered those purchases as a fillip to China's Eurasian ally: a political purchase as distinct from one that makes economic sense.

The PRC also is importing more coal from Indonesia - whose exports of thermal coal even before the PRC rift with Australia were apparently bigger than ours. I have been told that the problem with Indonesian black coal is that it is sulphur laden crap that burns at a low temperature. So much so that Chinese users have found that to be any good Indo coal needs to be mixed with other coal with a higher BTU yield of heat energy to boost the combined heat yield to a level where it can heat up the water needed to drive the generators in their power stations. Indo coal apparently has only one redeeming characteristic - it is cheap. So by mixing Indo coal with higher BTU grades of coal (like ours) according to a known ratio they have found that it lowers the average fuel cost needed to generate a given number of kilowatt hours of electric power.

there is no way around it - China needs our coal!

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cassowary
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Re: China's self-inflicted energy shortage.

Post by cassowary » Thu Sep 30, 2021 6:49 pm

neverfail wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 3:00 pm
cassowary wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 5:16 am

Because Australia is the only known source of quality coal... :roll:
Because it is the most cost-effective supplier and has a coal mining and delivery infrastructure on a scale that can supply China with the quantities of coal it needs.

Since the rift with Australia the PRC has tried inporting coal from Russia: but to deliver to users that requires long rail journeys overland from the Russian mines with the result that Russian coal in China costs twice as much as Australian coal (which is delivered by sea at a much lower average cost per tonne per kilometer). Xi must have ordered those purchases as a fillip to China's Eurasian ally: a political purchase as distinct from one that makes economic sense.

The PRC also is importing more coal from Indonesia - whose exports of thermal coal even before the PRC rift with Australia were apparently bigger than ours. I have been told that the problem with Indonesian black coal is that it is sulphur laden crap that burns at a low temperature. So much so that Chinese users have found that to be any good Indo coal needs to be mixed with other coal with a higher BTU yield of heat energy to boost the combined heat yield to a level where it can heat up the water needed to drive the generators in their power stations. Indo coal apparently has only one redeeming characteristic - it is cheap. So by mixing Indo coal with higher BTU grades of coal (like ours) according to a known ratio they have found that it lowers the average fuel cost needed to generate a given number of kilowatt hours of electric power.

there is no way around it - China needs our coal!
That was not me. It was Sertorio.

………………………………………………

Also I would like to add that it is not easy to ramp up production. Russia has contracts with Europe to fulfill. Indonesia has heavy rains and flooding which caused delays.

Meanwhile China is claiming that that the coal shortage is due to green goals to cut down on carbon emissions. What he didn’t mention is that he is replacing cleaner Australian coal with dirtier coal.
The Imp :D

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cassowary
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Re: China's self-inflicted energy shortage.

Post by cassowary » Thu Sep 30, 2021 6:51 pm

Doc wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 2:26 pm
cassowary wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 1:29 pm
Doc wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 7:39 am
cassowary wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 7:11 am
neverfail wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 5:30 am
cassowary wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 5:16 am


Meanwhile, winter is coming. If Xi does not get his act together, millions could freeze as price of coal soars in China because he refused to buy cheap Australian coal.
Exactly! "China might become the birthplace of a revolution in the atomic energy industry" That's might, not a certainty. Meantime China still gets around three quarters of its energy from coal and will (not might) need to do so for this coming northern winter as a matter of urgency.

To think that all Xi Jinpeng needs to do to secure that needed Australian coal is to eat humble pie. :D
Maybe Xi expects Australia will come begging to him to buy coal. :D

.....................................................................................................................................

As I have said here in this forum many times before, the weakness of dictatorships is that the top guy is the last to know the truth as their underlings tell him what he wants to hear.

Thus Mussolini's generals told him what a good job they had done when they showed him thousands of planes. Only they neglected to tell him that half of them could not fly.

Thus Mao's underlings told him the harvests were bountiful and the peasants were well fed when actually they were starving.

Could it be that Xi's underlings are telling him that China has ample energy resources including coal and nobody is going to freeze this winter?

On the other hand maybe Xi is jealous of Kim jong un. Whose people "love" him so much they are willing to survive by eating grass rather overthrow the "dear leader."
Oh yeah. Fatty Kim has a harem of beautiful girls to serve him.

Yeah while everyone else in North Korea has Haram :D
Hahaha
The Imp :D

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Doc
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Re: China's self-inflicted energy shortage.

Post by Doc » Thu Sep 30, 2021 6:54 pm

neverfail wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 3:00 pm
cassowary wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 5:16 am

Because Australia is the only known source of quality coal... :roll:
Because it is the most cost-effective supplier and has a coal mining and delivery infrastructure on a scale that can supply China with the quantities of coal it needs.

Since the rift with Australia the PRC has tried inporting coal from Russia: but to deliver to users that requires long rail journeys overland from the Russian mines with the result that Russian coal in China costs twice as much as Australian coal (which is delivered by sea at a much lower average cost per tonne per kilometer). Xi must have ordered those purchases as a fillip to China's Eurasian ally: a political purchase as distinct from one that makes economic sense.

The PRC also is importing more coal from Indonesia - whose exports of thermal coal even before the PRC rift with Australia were apparently bigger than ours. I have been told that the problem with Indonesian black coal is that it is sulphur laden crap that burns at a low temperature. So much so that Chinese users have found that to be any good Indo coal needs to be mixed with other coal with a higher BTU yield of heat energy to boost the combined heat yield to a level where it can heat up the water needed to drive the generators in their power stations. Indo coal apparently has only one redeeming characteristic - it is cheap. So by mixing Indo coal with higher BTU grades of coal (like ours) according to a known ratio they have found that it lowers the average fuel cost needed to generate a given number of kilowatt hours of electric power.

there is no way around it - China needs our coal!
Yes it seems Australia is defeating China.

“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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cassowary
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Re: China's self-inflicted energy shortage.

Post by cassowary » Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:24 pm

Doc wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 6:54 pm
neverfail wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 3:00 pm
cassowary wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 5:16 am

Because Australia is the only known source of quality coal... :roll:
Because it is the most cost-effective supplier and has a coal mining and delivery infrastructure on a scale that can supply China with the quantities of coal it needs.

Since the rift with Australia the PRC has tried inporting coal from Russia: but to deliver to users that requires long rail journeys overland from the Russian mines with the result that Russian coal in China costs twice as much as Australian coal (which is delivered by sea at a much lower average cost per tonne per kilometer). Xi must have ordered those purchases as a fillip to China's Eurasian ally: a political purchase as distinct from one that makes economic sense.

The PRC also is importing more coal from Indonesia - whose exports of thermal coal even before the PRC rift with Australia were apparently bigger than ours. I have been told that the problem with Indonesian black coal is that it is sulphur laden crap that burns at a low temperature. So much so that Chinese users have found that to be any good Indo coal needs to be mixed with other coal with a higher BTU yield of heat energy to boost the combined heat yield to a level where it can heat up the water needed to drive the generators in their power stations. Indo coal apparently has only one redeeming characteristic - it is cheap. So by mixing Indo coal with higher BTU grades of coal (like ours) according to a known ratio they have found that it lowers the average fuel cost needed to generate a given number of kilowatt hours of electric power.

there is no way around it - China needs our coal!
Yes it seems Australia is defeating China.

The thing about Indian News media, especially the TFI Global, is that they like to exaggerate and sensationalize. They are also one sided and unbalanced. Singapore's CNA is known for its impartiality and accuracy. But I also find that boring and find myself watching TFI Global or WION instead.

By the way, I notice that TFI Global is pro Republiclan when it reports US news.
The Imp :D

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cassowary
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Re: China's self-inflicted energy shortage.

Post by cassowary » Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:32 pm

By now, Xi should know about the power shortages. Why is he not doing anything about it? Can't he get back to importing more coal from Austrlia or from other suppliers? Besides, Australia, there is Russia, Canada, the US, Indonesia and South Africa. China also has coal mines. Why does he not increase local production?

What is going on in China? Or is Xi still in the dark? Like Mao was during the Great Leap Foward when people were starving. Mao only found out when he saw someone collapse on the street, according to his doctor Li Zhi Sui, who wrote a book after he migrated to the US.

As I said before, one weakness of dictatorships is that when the top guy makes a mistake, there is nobody to stop him. But of course the converse is that when he makes a right decision, there is also no one to stop him. Its a high risk but high reward political structure. A dictatorship can accomplish great things but also create disasters.

.....................................................................................................................

To recap what I wrote elsewhere, Xi already faces many problems besides this one:

1)Trade war with the US
2)Property market collapsing
3)a declining and ageing population
4)self inflicted stupid policy blunder in curbing private enterprise
5)now this latest also self inflicted energy crisis.
The Imp :D

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Sertorio
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Re: China's self-inflicted energy shortage.

Post by Sertorio » Fri Oct 01, 2021 1:22 am

cassowary wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:32 pm
By now, Xi should know about the power shortages. Why is he not doing anything about it? Can't he get back to importing more coal from Austrlia or from other suppliers? Besides, Australia, there is Russia, Canada, the US, Indonesia and South Africa. China also has coal mines. Why does he not increase local production?

What is going on in China? Or is Xi still in the dark? Like Mao was during the Great Leap Foward when people were starving. Mao only found out when he saw someone collapse on the street, according to his doctor Li Zhi Sui, who wrote a book after he migrated to the US.

As I said before, one weakness of dictatorships is that when the top guy makes a mistake, there is nobody to stop him. But of course the converse is that when he makes a right decision, there is also no one to stop him. Its a high risk but high reward political structure. A dictatorship can accomplish great things but also create disasters.

.....................................................................................................................

To recap what I wrote elsewhere, Xi already faces many problems besides this one:

1)Trade war with the US
2)Property market collapsing
3)a declining and ageing population
4)self inflicted stupid policy blunder in curbing private enterprise
5)now this latest also self inflicted energy crisis.
My suggestion for you to control your China problem:

Image

:lol:

neverfail
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Re: China's self-inflicted energy shortage.

Post by neverfail » Fri Oct 01, 2021 5:27 am

cassowary wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:32 pm
By now, Xi should know about the power shortages. Why is he not doing anything about it? Can't he get back to importing more coal from Austrlia or from other suppliers? Besides, Australia, there is Russia, Canada, the US, Indonesia and South Africa. China also has coal mines. Why does he not increase local production?
I believe that he has but at considerable cost. Accounting for perhaps 7% of the World's land area China has (I believe) around `15% of the world's known coal reserves: the second largest such endowment after the United States (6% of world's land but 24% of its coal). But if mining coal in China were either profitable or easy do you think that they would be importing so much of it cass?

This energy crunch in China is not just a matter of supply and demand. The abscence of normal supplies of Australian coal has helped cause the price of this fuel go through the roof (not helped by the fact that other fuels have risen in proce globally as well). However the PRC government has imposed a maximim price that electric power utilities can charge consumers that is often insufficient for these to pass on their increased costs to consumers. So caught between the rock of rising costs and the hard place of government price restrictions a lot of the electric power utilities are switching off the turbines in order to cut losses that would otherwise lead to bankruptcy. That is the reason for the power shortages in China.
..............................................................................................................................................

It is not just a matter of having the coal in the ground but also the means to beliver the stuff to market. Most of Australia's black coal is located along our eastern seaboard. For seaborne exports the coal is brought to the coal port by train in specially designed wagons. The process of then transferring the coal to the ships is a highly mechanised one. Not every country with coal reserves and a coastline has the needed coal loading machinery. New South Wales has four of them: one at Port Kembla south of Sydney and three at Newcastle, and all four of them work around the clock 365 days per year loading coal into the holds of the bulk ore carrier ships that carry it to overseas markets. Queensland has a similar number of coal loaders scattered more widely along its coast and these also work 24/7 all year long loading up the ships.

The USA also has several coal loaders in coastal locations but most of these seem to be loacated along its Atlantic coast. Okay if you are shipping coal to Europe but not practical if you are trying to send it to China; given the needed long diversion through the Panama Canal before crossing the Pacific a longer distance than those from the Australian coal ports to the receiving Chinese ones.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=32092

While this above US 2017 report mentions building new coal loaders on its Pacific side I do not know whether these have since been built. There are environmental laws and other constraints there. Not as easy as it sounds.

Russia: closest coal mines located deep in Siberia a long way by rail from the locations in China where it is needed. Since terrestial transport per kilometer per tonne of cargo costs considerably more than by water borne transport then you may begin to understand why Russian coal costs approx. twice as much in China as does Australian coal.

Why is Australia so well equipped to be a coal exporting country? It did not happen overnight. Until 1955 when we sent our first shipment to Japan coal mining in Australia had been developed as a domestic industry. But that shipment was so well received in Japan that Japanese users soon ordered more. So step by step this country got into the coal export business firstly in response to growing post WW2 Japanese demand then later South Korean and then Chinese demand.

You might better understand now, in light of costs and the time lag other would-be alternative supplier nations would need to develop the needed facilities why the PRC will likely need (in light of their current energy crisis) to come back to Australia to supply their coal.

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