The PRC will need to dig very deep to replace the Western aid no longer forthcoming.

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neverfail
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The PRC will need to dig very deep to replace the Western aid no longer forthcoming.

Post by neverfail » Fri Sep 10, 2021 12:24 am

https://asiatimes.com/2021/09/china-ext ... e-taliban/

Beijing announces $31 million grant to new Taliban government but nation's new rulers will need billions more to avoid economic collapse.
Farrukh Saleem, an Islamabad-based Pakistani political scientist, economist and financial analyst, told Asia Times that Afghanistan previously raised around $2.8 billion in domestic revenues yet spent $11.4 billion annually.
Thats right! Around three quarters of Afghanistan's national budget comprised of economic aid from Western sources.

The majority of its economy was foreign aid priven.

Can the PRC afford to step in with enough cash to replace the former Western aid doners? Russia can't and perish the thought that Pakistan could or would.

An almighty famine appears to be on the way.

The Taliban might say with resignation "the will of Allah!" :cry:

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Sertorio
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Re: The PRC will need to dig very deep to replace the Western aid no longer forthcoming.

Post by Sertorio » Fri Sep 10, 2021 1:39 am

neverfail wrote:
Fri Sep 10, 2021 12:24 am
https://asiatimes.com/2021/09/china-ext ... e-taliban/

Beijing announces $31 million grant to new Taliban government but nation's new rulers will need billions more to avoid economic collapse.
Farrukh Saleem, an Islamabad-based Pakistani political scientist, economist and financial analyst, told Asia Times that Afghanistan previously raised around $2.8 billion in domestic revenues yet spent $11.4 billion annually.
Thats right! Around three quarters of Afghanistan's national budget comprised of economic aid from Western sources.

The majority of its economy was foreign aid priven.

Can the PRC afford to step in with enough cash to replace the former Western aid doners? Russia can't and perish the thought that Pakistan could or would.

An almighty famine appears to be on the way.

The Taliban might say with resignation "the will of Allah!" :cry:
Another view:
What kind of relationship will Beijing have with the Taliban?

https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/china-afgh ... th-taliban

Beijing’s relationship with the Taliban will be twofold. First, it will be mercantilistic. China will seek to revive business ventures inside Afghanistan, which the Taliban is likely to support because investment will provide badly needed revenues. The Afghan economy is fragile and highly dependent on Western donors’ foreign aid, which will almost certainly be cut off. So any sort of investment, especially if it is not accompanied by lectures on human rights, will be welcome.

Second, the relationship will depend on each side not interfering in the other’s internal affairs. For Beijing, that means the Taliban cannot export extremism into China’s troubled Xinjiang region, which shares a tiny border with Afghanistan, or condemn the Chinese government’s abuses against Uyghur Muslims in that region. For the Taliban, it means China will not question the group’s human rights abuses unless Chinese citizens are involved.

In some ways, Afghanistan under the Taliban is China’s perfect partner: dysfunctional, dependent, and happy with whatever China can do for it.
$31 million may seem too little, but you may be sure that isn't the limit of China's involvement in Afghanistan...

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Doc
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Re: The PRC will need to dig very deep to replace the Western aid no longer forthcoming.

Post by Doc » Fri Sep 10, 2021 6:46 am

Sertorio wrote:
Fri Sep 10, 2021 1:39 am
neverfail wrote:
Fri Sep 10, 2021 12:24 am
https://asiatimes.com/2021/09/china-ext ... e-taliban/

Beijing announces $31 million grant to new Taliban government but nation's new rulers will need billions more to avoid economic collapse.
Farrukh Saleem, an Islamabad-based Pakistani political scientist, economist and financial analyst, told Asia Times that Afghanistan previously raised around $2.8 billion in domestic revenues yet spent $11.4 billion annually.
Thats right! Around three quarters of Afghanistan's national budget comprised of economic aid from Western sources.

The majority of its economy was foreign aid priven.

Can the PRC afford to step in with enough cash to replace the former Western aid doners? Russia can't and perish the thought that Pakistan could or would.

An almighty famine appears to be on the way.

The Taliban might say with resignation "the will of Allah!" :cry:
Another view:
What kind of relationship will Beijing have with the Taliban?

https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/china-afgh ... th-taliban

Beijing’s relationship with the Taliban will be twofold. First, it will be mercantilistic. China will seek to revive business ventures inside Afghanistan, which the Taliban is likely to support because investment will provide badly needed revenues. The Afghan economy is fragile and highly dependent on Western donors’ foreign aid, which will almost certainly be cut off. So any sort of investment, especially if it is not accompanied by lectures on human rights, will be welcome.

Second, the relationship will depend on each side not interfering in the other’s internal affairs. For Beijing, that means the Taliban cannot export extremism into China’s troubled Xinjiang region, which shares a tiny border with Afghanistan, or condemn the Chinese government’s abuses against Uyghur Muslims in that region. For the Taliban, it means China will not question the group’s human rights abuses unless Chinese citizens are involved.

In some ways, Afghanistan under the Taliban is China’s perfect partner: dysfunctional, dependent, and happy with whatever China can do for it.
$31 million may seem too little, but you may be sure that isn't the limit of China's involvement in Afghanistan...
The CCP can't afford it

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... hare-slump
China property market rocked as Evergrande struggles to repay $300bn debts

Shares in Hong Kong-listed firm slump 10% and bond trade suspended amid fears for shaky real estate market

Shares in the embattled Chinese property giant Evergrande have slumped again after two credit downgrades in as many days amid concerns that it will default on parts of its massive $300bn debt pile.

Evergrande, which is one of the world’s most indebted companies, has seen its shares tumble 75% this year. They fell by almost 10% on Thursday morning before recovering on reports that the authorities may allow the company to reset its debt terms.

Trading in one of the company’s bonds was suspended by the Shenzhen stock exchange after the price dropped 20%. After resuming trade, Evergrande’s January 2023 bond fell more than 30%, triggering a second trading freeze.

The online market trading platform IG said Evergrande posed “a risk of contagion” after Bloomberg reported that Credit Suisse and Citibank were no longer accepting the bonds of another highly indebted Chinese property developer, Fantasia, as collateral.

There were also reports from China on Wednesday of employees protesting outside the company’s offices about salaries not being paid. Evergrande claims to employ 200,000 people and indirectly generate 3.8 million jobs in China.

The company has run up liabilities totalling more than $300bn, after years of borrowing to fund rapid growth and a string of real estate acquisitions as well as other assets including a Chinese football team.

But the firm has struggled to service its debts and a crackdown on the property sector by Beijing has made it even harder to raise cash, fuelling concerns it will go bankrupt.

The value of new home sales has fallen 20% in China since the peak in the first three months of this year, and the value of land sales are also sharply down. Along with Beijing’s tougher regulation, these factors have made it much harder for Evergrande to dispose of unsold properties even with huge discounts.

Investors questioned how Evergrande was going to dispose of assets in order to repay debts without a clear plan.

“There is a lack of confidence and lots of rumours, the key is that we still don’t see a clear [debt resolution] plan,” a stock exchange trader told Reuters.

On Tuesday, a stock exchange filing showed that Evergrande had outstanding liabilities worth 562m yuan ($87m) to a supplier called Skshu Paint and repaid some of the money in the form of apartments in three unfinished property projects.

Xi Jinping, China’s president, has targeted “unsustainable” economic growth in recent months, along with his drive against the country’s increasingly powerful tech billionaires. The assault intensified on Thursday, after Chinese authorities told gaming firms to curb “incorrect tendencies” such as focusing “only on money” and “only on traffic”, sending the Hong Kong stock market down 2.3%, its biggest one-day percentage drop since July.

But whether the president would allow Evergrande to go bust if it fails to meet key repayment deadlines on 21 September remains unclear.

Many analysts warn such an event could have a serious impact on the world’s number two economy because the firm would go under, leaving hundreds of firms out of pocket.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Re: The PRC will need to dig very deep to replace the Western aid no longer forthcoming.

Post by SteveFoerster » Fri Sep 10, 2021 7:46 am

Not to mention that rebuilding Afghanistan's economy will be much more difficult when so many educated people left to avoid Taliban rule, and when the Taliban themselves literally dismiss the importance of Master's degrees and doctorates because the mullahs don't have them and the mullahs are the "greatest of all".

So whatever money the Chinese do pour into Afghanistan will be a bottomless pit.
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Sertorio
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Re: The PRC will need to dig very deep to replace the Western aid no longer forthcoming.

Post by Sertorio » Fri Sep 10, 2021 9:03 am

SteveFoerster wrote:
Fri Sep 10, 2021 7:46 am
Not to mention that rebuilding Afghanistan's economy will be much more difficult when so many educated people left to avoid Taliban rule, and when the Taliban themselves literally dismiss the importance of Master's degrees and doctorates because the mullahs don't have them and the mullahs are the "greatest of all".

So whatever money the Chinese do pour into Afghanistan will be a bottomless pit.
You may be right. But China has a better idea of what an underdeveloped country needs than the US. Education, vocational training and food providing activities are what China may be trying to promote in Afghanistan.

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Re: The PRC will need to dig very deep to replace the Western aid no longer forthcoming.

Post by Doc » Fri Sep 10, 2021 9:08 am

SteveFoerster wrote:
Fri Sep 10, 2021 7:46 am
Not to mention that rebuilding Afghanistan's economy will be much more difficult when so many educated people left to avoid Taliban rule, and when the Taliban themselves literally dismiss the importance of Master's degrees and doctorates because the mullahs don't have them and the mullahs are the "greatest of all".

So whatever money the Chinese do pour into Afghanistan will be a bottomless pit.
Given Evergrande, seems like the CCP already specializes in bottomless pits. :D
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Re: The PRC will need to dig very deep to replace the Western aid no longer forthcoming.

Post by Doc » Fri Sep 10, 2021 9:25 am

Sertorio wrote:
Fri Sep 10, 2021 9:03 am
SteveFoerster wrote:
Fri Sep 10, 2021 7:46 am
Not to mention that rebuilding Afghanistan's economy will be much more difficult when so many educated people left to avoid Taliban rule, and when the Taliban themselves literally dismiss the importance of Master's degrees and doctorates because the mullahs don't have them and the mullahs are the "greatest of all".

So whatever money the Chinese do pour into Afghanistan will be a bottomless pit.
You may be right. But China has a better idea of what an underdeveloped country needs than the US. Education, vocational training and food providing activities are what China may be trying to promote in Afghanistan.
Education and training are for "tomorrow" Food security is for today. But what you missed is a respectable system of justice. The Afghan government and the US failed to provide one so the Taliban filled the void with Islamic courts. IE some guy cuts down his neighbors tree so the neighbor takes out his AK47 and kills his neighbor. That is not a better solution than a Islamic court. That is exactly what the Taliban did to win the support of the rural Afghan people. Somehow I don't think justice with CCP characteristics will go over well in Afghanistan.

However giving that power to Islamic courts is going to radicalize more people in Afghanistan to extremism.

The US had its politicians get way too involved in nation building in Afghanistan. Which basically means forcing their constituents valves on a country that is mostly living day to day in the 13th century.

Afghanistan needs a stable food supply and a basic system of justice for its people Not gender studies.

TO put a finer point on it Does anyone remember Sub-commandante Marcos? My now deceased brother in law went to private school with him.

He had disappeared for years until he showed up in Chapis and tried to convert the locals to Sandista communism. Told them what they should do and want for themselves. After fighting the Spanish and then the Mexican government for 500 years up until the 1950's when the Mexican government finally built a road for its army to get to Chapis. They did not take kindly to an outsider doing that. So he changed his tactics and asked them what they wanted. Then gave them advise Until then he had had no success in Chapis. Afterwards the indigenous in Chapis finally got some concessions from the government.

Afghanistan has been repelling invaders for longer than the Maya of Chapis. With much more success. They are uneducated but certainly not stupid in either case. They don't need big brother or big sister telling them what they should want to do with their lives.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

neverfail
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Re: The PRC will need to dig very deep to replace the Western aid no longer forthcoming.

Post by neverfail » Fri Sep 10, 2021 3:42 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Fri Sep 10, 2021 9:03 am
You may be right. But China has a better idea of what an underdeveloped country needs than the US. Education, vocational training and food providing activities are what China may be trying to promote in Afghanistan.
Underdeveloped countries do not come in one standard make and model Sertorio. Believing that they do is an error that Western thinking (including that of US governments) have been guilty of at least since the 1960's.

This is a country now ruled by bearded men who believe that all wisdom lies in the content of their holy Koran; not in vocational training texts.

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Re: The PRC will need to dig very deep to replace the Western aid no longer forthcoming.

Post by neverfail » Fri Sep 10, 2021 3:47 pm

Doc wrote:
Fri Sep 10, 2021 9:25 am
Education and training are for "tomorrow" Food security is for today.
Exactly! The crumbling of the Afghan economy has begun already. Anyone can see that an immense humanitarian crisis is about to unfold.

Can or will the Taliban's newly acquired foreign allies lend a helping hand? Don't count on it!

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Re: The PRC will need to dig very deep to replace the Western aid no longer forthcoming.

Post by SteveFoerster » Fri Sep 10, 2021 3:55 pm

neverfail wrote:
Fri Sep 10, 2021 3:47 pm
Doc wrote:
Fri Sep 10, 2021 9:25 am
Education and training are for "tomorrow" Food security is for today.
Exactly! The crumbling of the Afghan economy has begun already. Anyone can see that an immense humanitarian crisis is about to unfold.

Can or will the Taliban's newly acquired foreign allies lend a helping hand? Don't count on it!
Notwithstanding Biden's critics, not only would I not call China an "ally" of the Taliban, I wouldn't even call them friends even though they share enmity towards the West.
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