The Afghan civil war is going to start again

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neverfail
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Re: The Afghan civil war is going to start again

Post by neverfail » Fri Sep 03, 2021 5:12 pm

cassowary wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 7:07 am
Heavy fighting erupts in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan is a tribal society. The Taliban are mostly Pashtuns. So another reason for them to fight.
Very true Cass. What amazes me is that considering how much the Taliban represents Pashtun power the patchwork of northern tribes opposed to them (they have done this on two successive occasions, 1996 and now) failed to sustain a common front against them. Instead on both occasions northern mujahideen warlords seperately made their peace with the Taliban as its pale expanded, in effect joining it, leaving the Panjshir Valley and its Tajiks abandoned to fight on alone.

Afghanistan being the way it is I believe that we can count on further civil war erupting there as a given.

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cassowary
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Re: The Afghan civil war is going to start again

Post by cassowary » Fri Sep 03, 2021 9:04 pm

neverfail wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 5:12 pm
cassowary wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 7:07 am
Heavy fighting erupts in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan is a tribal society. The Taliban are mostly Pashtuns. So another reason for them to fight.
Very true Cass. What amazes me is that considering how much the Taliban represents Pashtun power the patchwork of northern tribes opposed to them (they have done this on two successive occasions, 1996 and now) failed to sustain a common front against them. Instead on both occasions northern mujahideen warlords seperately made their peace with the Taliban as its pale expanded, in effect joining it, leaving the Panjshir Valley and its Tajiks abandoned to fight on alone.

Afghanistan being the way it is I believe that we can count on further civil war erupting there as a given.
The Civil War I want to see is between the moderates and the hardliners in the Taliban. The Taliban announced that the US can evacuate but somebody sent a suicide bomber, maybe ISIS. The Taliban don't have full control of the country. They can wage a guerrila war by hiding in caves, come out at night and shoot at coalition forces as well as Afghans who don't support them. But ruling the country is another thing.

Within the Taliban are different factions. Some of it is tribal based. Some are moderates and don't want to support global jihadism while others are hardliners who want to use Afghanistan as a base for a global jihad. Now that the Americans are gone, the Taliban will turn their guns on one another.
The Imp :D

neverfail
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Re: The Afghan civil war is going to start again

Post by neverfail » Fri Sep 03, 2021 11:47 pm

cassowary wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 9:04 pm
neverfail wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 5:12 pm
cassowary wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 7:07 am
Heavy fighting erupts in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan is a tribal society. The Taliban are mostly Pashtuns. So another reason for them to fight.
Very true Cass. What amazes me is that considering how much the Taliban represents Pashtun power the patchwork of northern tribes opposed to them (they have done this on two successive occasions, 1996 and now) failed to sustain a common front against them. Instead on both occasions northern mujahideen warlords seperately made their peace with the Taliban as its pale expanded, in effect joining it, leaving the Panjshir Valley and its Tajiks abandoned to fight on alone.

Afghanistan being the way it is I believe that we can count on further civil war erupting there as a given.
The Civil War I want to see is between the moderates and the hardliners in the Taliban. The Taliban announced that the US can evacuate but somebody sent a suicide bomber, maybe ISIS. The Taliban don't have full control of the country. They can wage a guerrila war by hiding in caves, come out at night and shoot at coalition forces as well as Afghans who don't support them. But ruling the country is another thing.

Within the Taliban are different factions. Some of it is tribal based. Some are moderates and don't want to support global jihadism while others are hardliners who want to use Afghanistan as a base for a global jihad. Now that the Americans are gone, the Taliban will turn their guns on one another.
Pepe Escobar offered some amazing insights into the difficulty facing the Taleban in forming a government:

https://asiatimes.com/2021/09/why-the-t ... overnment/

It could still all fall apart but that does not mean that it automatically will.

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cassowary
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Re: The Afghan civil war is going to start again

Post by cassowary » Sat Sep 04, 2021 3:02 am

neverfail wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 11:47 pm
cassowary wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 9:04 pm
neverfail wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 5:12 pm
cassowary wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 7:07 am
Heavy fighting erupts in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan is a tribal society. The Taliban are mostly Pashtuns. So another reason for them to fight.
Very true Cass. What amazes me is that considering how much the Taliban represents Pashtun power the patchwork of northern tribes opposed to them (they have done this on two successive occasions, 1996 and now) failed to sustain a common front against them. Instead on both occasions northern mujahideen warlords seperately made their peace with the Taliban as its pale expanded, in effect joining it, leaving the Panjshir Valley and its Tajiks abandoned to fight on alone.

Afghanistan being the way it is I believe that we can count on further civil war erupting there as a given.
The Civil War I want to see is between the moderates and the hardliners in the Taliban. The Taliban announced that the US can evacuate but somebody sent a suicide bomber, maybe ISIS. The Taliban don't have full control of the country. They can wage a guerrila war by hiding in caves, come out at night and shoot at coalition forces as well as Afghans who don't support them. But ruling the country is another thing.

Within the Taliban are different factions. Some of it is tribal based. Some are moderates and don't want to support global jihadism while others are hardliners who want to use Afghanistan as a base for a global jihad. Now that the Americans are gone, the Taliban will turn their guns on one another.
Pepe Escobar offered some amazing insights into the difficulty facing the Taleban in forming a government:

https://asiatimes.com/2021/09/why-the-t ... overnment/

It could still all fall apart but that does not mean that it automatically will.
They are bums who cannot get their act together.

America is like the police and Afghanistan is like the crime ridden part of town. So when the police leaves, all hell breaks lose.

I am happy that they are still in Asia and Europe Or gangsters like Xi and Putin will take over the neighbourhood.
The Imp :D

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Sertorio
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Re: The Afghan civil war is going to start again

Post by Sertorio » Sat Sep 04, 2021 3:28 am

cassowary wrote:
Sat Sep 04, 2021 3:02 am

America is like the police and Afghanistan is like the crime ridden part of town. So when the police leaves, all hell breaks lose.

I am happy that they are still in Asia and Europe Or gangsters like Xi and Putin will take over the neighbourhood.
Please leave Europe to us. We will eventually make sure the dirty cops are gone for good...

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cassowary
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Re: The Afghan civil war is going to start again

Post by cassowary » Sat Sep 04, 2021 4:08 am

Sertorio wrote:
Sat Sep 04, 2021 3:28 am
cassowary wrote:
Sat Sep 04, 2021 3:02 am

America is like the police and Afghanistan is like the crime ridden part of town. So when the police leaves, all hell breaks lose.

I am happy that they are still in Asia and Europe Or gangsters like Xi and Putin will take over the neighbourhood.
Please leave Europe to us. We will eventually make sure the dirty cops are gone for good...
That's because you love evil dictators like Putin.
The Imp :D

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Sertorio
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Joined: Fri Dec 16, 2016 3:12 am

Re: The Afghan civil war is going to start again

Post by Sertorio » Sat Sep 04, 2021 4:56 am

cassowary wrote:
Sat Sep 04, 2021 4:08 am
Sertorio wrote:
Sat Sep 04, 2021 3:28 am
cassowary wrote:
Sat Sep 04, 2021 3:02 am

America is like the police and Afghanistan is like the crime ridden part of town. So when the police leaves, all hell breaks lose.

I am happy that they are still in Asia and Europe Or gangsters like Xi and Putin will take over the neighbourhood.
Please leave Europe to us. We will eventually make sure the dirty cops are gone for good...
That's because you love evil dictators like Putin.
Rather we hate evil tyrants like many American Presidents...

neverfail
Posts: 7292
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2016 3:47 am
Location: Singapore

Re: The Afghan civil war is going to start again

Post by neverfail » Sat Sep 04, 2021 5:13 am

cassowary wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 9:04 pm
The Civil War I want to see is between the moderates and the hardliners in the Taliban.
:o Oh Casso!

Are you not aware that you cannot order up a civil war of choice?

If and when they come they come, and that is all there is to it.

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cassowary
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Re: The Afghan civil war is going to start again

Post by cassowary » Sat Sep 04, 2021 5:54 pm

neverfail wrote:
Sat Sep 04, 2021 5:13 am
cassowary wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 9:04 pm
The Civil War I want to see is between the moderates and the hardliners in the Taliban.
:o Oh Casso!

Are you not aware that you cannot order up a civil war of choice?

If and when they come they come, and that is all there is to it.
You are right of course. But one can hope.
The Imp :D

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cassowary
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Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 11:30 pm

Re: The Afghan civil war is going to start again

Post by cassowary » Sat Sep 04, 2021 5:55 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Sat Sep 04, 2021 4:56 am
cassowary wrote:
Sat Sep 04, 2021 4:08 am
Sertorio wrote:
Sat Sep 04, 2021 3:28 am
cassowary wrote:
Sat Sep 04, 2021 3:02 am

America is like the police and Afghanistan is like the crime ridden part of town. So when the police leaves, all hell breaks lose.

I am happy that they are still in Asia and Europe Or gangsters like Xi and Putin will take over the neighbourhood.
Please leave Europe to us. We will eventually make sure the dirty cops are gone for good...
That's because you love evil dictators like Putin.
Rather we hate evil tyrants like many American Presidents...
Like who? I can name many from your side. Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot, Hitler.
The Imp :D

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