The Left Again Leading in Latin America

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Sertorio
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The Left Again Leading in Latin America

Post by Sertorio » Wed Jul 21, 2021 3:04 am

Peru Gets Its First Socialist President, Pedro Castillo
by Ron Ridenour - July 20, 2021
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/ ... -castillo/

The new government—led by teacher, unionist and peasant farmer Castillo—is expected to make many social and economic reforms in keeping with their promises of putting the people before profiteering, and domination by the United States.

Socialists Pedro Castillo, 51, and Dina Boluarte, 58, belatedly were announced Peru’s president and vice-president by Peru’s National Electoral Jury, on July 19. The former farmer peasant turned teacher and unionist Castillo, and attorney Boluarte are the Free Peru party’s candidates. They assume power on July 28.

Free Peru opponent Keiko Fujimori, of the far right-wing Popular Force party, recognized that victory as “the law”, and encouraged her many violent followers to cease all forms of violence. Keiko Fujimori faces up to 30 years imprisonment for various criminal charges: illegally receiving bribes, money laundering, illegally taking money for her 2011 presidential bid, and for leading a criminal organization. She is out of prison on house arrest after 15 months of pre-trial detention as a high flight risk. The prosecution will soon seek a trial.

Keiko Fujimori is the daughter and former “First Lady” of Alberto Fujimori, president from 1990 to 2000. He has served about half his 25-year prison sentence for several crimes of corruption and for ordering the murder of 25 persons by a secret death squad composed of military personnel.

Following the June 6 run-off election, it took ten days for the National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE) to announce that 100% of the votes cast showed Castillo and Boluarte had barely won with 51.125% to 49.875% of the votes, just 44,058 over their opponents.

JNE then took more than a month to check and re-count of ca. one million of the 17,627,100 votes cast for one or the other candidate (plus 1,108,039 blank and null ballots). Keiko Fujimori’s many lawyers had filed at least 800 acts claiming massive fraud in areas where Castillo had overwhelming support. Her supporters protested, often violently, before electoral jury officials, and beat many of Castillo’s supporters.

The new government—led by teacher, unionist and peasant farmer Castillo—is expected to make many social and economic reforms in keeping with their promises of putting the people before profiteering, and domination by the United States. This development, coupled with that of the Movement Toward Socialism landslide victory in Bolivia, last October, is expected to encourage like-minded peoples’ parties in many countries, especially in Latin America.
Next to change will be Brazil, with Lula da Silva expected to be reelected. If Colombia falls, then the US will have nothing left in South America.

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cassowary
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Re: The Left Again Leading in Latin America

Post by cassowary » Wed Jul 21, 2021 8:39 pm

Oh that means, Peru is going downhill. Mark my words.
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Re: The Left Again Leading in Latin America

Post by neverfail » Thu Jul 22, 2021 1:17 am

cassowary wrote:
Wed Jul 21, 2021 8:39 pm
Oh that means, Peru is going downhill. Mark my words.
Peru has not gone uphill since the time of the Inca Empire - and their last Emperor Atahualpa was so dumb he allowed a gang of Meditearranean bandits grab him and hold him for an enormous ramson - bringing his imperium to a premature end.

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Re: The Left Again Leading in Latin America

Post by cassowary » Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:45 am

neverfail wrote:
Thu Jul 22, 2021 1:17 am
cassowary wrote:
Wed Jul 21, 2021 8:39 pm
Oh that means, Peru is going downhill. Mark my words.
Peru has not gone uphill since the time of the Inca Empire - and their last Emperor Atahualpa was so dumb he allowed a gang of Meditearranean bandits grab him and hold him for an enormous ramson - bringing his imperium to a premature end.
Mmm, no. Peru did well before this pandemic struck.
The World Bank In Peru
Following a robust expansion during the previous decade, the Peruvian economy grew at a slower pace between 2014 and 2019, in a less favorable external context. In 2020, the COVID-19 crisis will have a significant economic impact although a strong recovery is expected for the following year.
You can see from the GDP chart that the economy was growing nicely for more than 10 years except for the 2008 financial crisis and the recent pandemic.

From experience, economic growth will always come with a widening gap between rich and poor. So I guess that is probably what happened in Peru as well. This gave an opportunity for leftist politicians to capitalise on the bad side of human nature - envy and hate for othes who did well.

They will promise wealth redistribution policies that will of course cause economic growth to slow or if extreme enough completely plunge the country into decline. This means loss of jobs and social upheavel. The mess created will usher in a leftist dictator who will of course get rich while the poor eat from garbage cans. That's what happened in Venezuela. So it might happen here too.

I have seen it happen before many times.
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Re: The Left Again Leading in Latin America

Post by neverfail » Thu Jul 22, 2021 3:41 pm

cassowary wrote:
Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:45 am

Mmm, no. Peru did well before this pandemic struck.
The World Bank In Peru
Following a robust expansion during the previous decade, the Peruvian economy grew at a slower pace between 2014 and 2019, in a less favorable external context. In 2020, the COVID-19 crisis will have a significant economic impact although a strong recovery is expected for the following year.
You can see from the GDP chart that the economy was growing nicely for more than 10 years except for the 2008 financial crisis and the recent pandemic.

From experience, economic growth will always come with a widening gap between rich and poor. So I guess that is probably what happened in Peru as well. This gave an opportunity for leftist politicians to capitalise on the bad side of human nature - envy and hate for othes who did well.

They will promise wealth redistribution policies that will of course cause economic growth to slow or if extreme enough completely plunge the country into decline. This means loss of jobs and social upheavel. The mess created will usher in a leftist dictator who will of course get rich while the poor eat from garbage cans. That's what happened in Venezuela. So it might happen here too.

I have seen it happen before many times.
Alas Casso, in the style of John Calvin you seem, true to form, to subdivide the population of any country into the elect few deserving of good fortune and the sinful, damned majority deserving only of woe.

That Peru may have enjoyed several successive good years of robust growth is beside the point. In a place like that that has been structured to screw the majority population ever since the conquistadors arrived the poor never get a fair go. What use are many years of economic growth to people who gain nothing from it?

In a place like that it would not be the deserving rich who prosper as much as the cunning and corrupt. Likewise (I imagine) in Venezuela pre-Victor Chavez.

I also feel that you are wrong in presuming that it is always envy that prompts the disenfranchised and dispossessed of a country to support left wing causes as much as a desire to change an unacceptably bad situation for the better.

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Re: The Left Again Leading in Latin America

Post by neverfail » Sat Jul 24, 2021 12:03 am

The Left Again Leading in Latin America?

:lol: :lol: :lol:

So what? Since when has the region ever been anything other than a bit of a global backwater anyhow?

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Sertorio
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Re: The Left Again Leading in Latin America

Post by Sertorio » Sat Jul 24, 2021 1:08 am

neverfail wrote:
Sat Jul 24, 2021 12:03 am
The Left Again Leading in Latin America?

:lol: :lol: :lol:

So what? Since when has the region ever been anything other than a bit of a global backwater anyhow?
Don't be smug... The Anglosphere is on its way there now...

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cassowary
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Re: The Left Again Leading in Latin America

Post by cassowary » Sat Jul 24, 2021 7:01 am

neverfail wrote:
Thu Jul 22, 2021 3:41 pm
cassowary wrote:
Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:45 am

Mmm, no. Peru did well before this pandemic struck.
The World Bank In Peru
Following a robust expansion during the previous decade, the Peruvian economy grew at a slower pace between 2014 and 2019, in a less favorable external context. In 2020, the COVID-19 crisis will have a significant economic impact although a strong recovery is expected for the following year.
You can see from the GDP chart that the economy was growing nicely for more than 10 years except for the 2008 financial crisis and the recent pandemic.

From experience, economic growth will always come with a widening gap between rich and poor. So I guess that is probably what happened in Peru as well. This gave an opportunity for leftist politicians to capitalise on the bad side of human nature - envy and hate for othes who did well.

They will promise wealth redistribution policies that will of course cause economic growth to slow or if extreme enough completely plunge the country into decline. This means loss of jobs and social upheavel. The mess created will usher in a leftist dictator who will of course get rich while the poor eat from garbage cans. That's what happened in Venezuela. So it might happen here too.

I have seen it happen before many times.
Alas Casso, in the style of John Calvin you seem, true to form, to subdivide the population of any country into the elect few deserving of good fortune and the sinful, damned majority deserving only of woe.

That Peru may have enjoyed several successive good years of robust growth is beside the point. In a place like that that has been structured to screw the majority population ever since the conquistadors arrived the poor never get a fair go. What use are many years of economic growth to people who gain nothing from it?

In a place like that it would not be the deserving rich who prosper as much as the cunning and corrupt. Likewise (I imagine) in Venezuela pre-Victor Chavez.

I also feel that you are wrong in presuming that it is always envy that prompts the disenfranchised and dispossessed of a country to support left wing causes as much as a desire to change an unacceptably bad situation for the better.
John Calvin was right. Those who obey God's commands will prosper while those who don't will suffer.

Anyway, this is a secular forum. So I will use only secular arguments. Have I not presented links to recent research by Jonathan Gruber that says regular church goers enjoy higher incomes?
Doubling the rate of religious attendance raises household income by 9.1 percent, decreases welfare participation by 16 percent from baseline rates, decreases the odds of being divorced by 4 percent , and increases the odds of being married by 4.4 percent.
Gruber offered stupid reasons to explain why this might be so. My reason is that some religions cultivate the virtues that are prerequisites for success. Others cultivate qualities that lead to failure (like Islam) but that is another story.

Anyway, let's get back to Peru. It seems that the Whites and the small Asian community form the elites. These are the ones with the wealth and power. The new President , Pedro Castillo, won a squeaker of an election against an Asian Peruvian - Keiko Fujimori, daughter of a former Peruvian President, Alberto Fujimori. Pedro is a far left President while Keiko is a far right Presidential candidate. Under free market policies in the past twenty years, Peru prospered and poverty dropped.
Under the mostly centrist presidents elected since the turn of the century, the economy has been one of the fastest growing in the Western Hemisphere; the poverty rate has dropped from 60 to 21 percent and inequality has diminished.
The bulk of the population are the metizos who form the middle class. But the indigenous Indians are about 25% of the population and they are mostly poor. I think it is the culture that makes people rich or poor. A culture that breeds more more Ronald Reads will be rich.

A culture that breeds more Michael Carolls will be poor. Politicians won't tell you that the reason why you are poor because of some defect in your culture. They will blame it on racism or capitalism or whatever. They only want your vote. They are not interested in helping you. There is only one politician who was honest enough to tell his people the truth. He is Dr Mahathir, the former PM of Malaysia.

He told his people that the reason why they are poor is because they are lazy and dishonest. That's because he sincerely wanted his people to do well and he knew that cultivating the right virtues is the only way to wealth. A father who love his child will chide his child for being lazy when he neglects his homework. But a politician who wants their votes won't tell the truth.

So it is probably the same for the Amerindians of Peru and to a lesser extent the Metizos. That's why Peruvian society has a hierachy with the Whites and Asians on top, the Metizos in the middle and the Amerindians at the bottom. But instead of helping the poor to cultivate the qualities required for success, Pedro promises wealth redistribution. That's penalising the virtous and rewarding the sinful. It won't work and will lead to ruin.
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Re: The Left Again Leading in Latin America

Post by Sertorio » Sat Jul 24, 2021 7:28 am

cassowary wrote:
Sat Jul 24, 2021 7:01 am
Doubling the rate of religious attendance raises household income by 9.1 percent, decreases welfare participation by 16 percent from baseline rates, decreases the odds of being divorced by 4 percent , and increases the odds of being married by 4.4 percent.
Scandinavian countries have a much lower religious attendance than Spain, but are much richer...And I believe their divorce rate is higher and the odds of being married there are lower... Your rules are just ridiculous... :twisted:

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Re: The Left Again Leading in Latin America

Post by cassowary » Mon Jul 26, 2021 10:01 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Sat Jul 24, 2021 7:28 am
cassowary wrote:
Sat Jul 24, 2021 7:01 am
Doubling the rate of religious attendance raises household income by 9.1 percent, decreases welfare participation by 16 percent from baseline rates, decreases the odds of being divorced by 4 percent , and increases the odds of being married by 4.4 percent.
Scandinavian countries have a much lower religious attendance than Spain, but are much richer...And I believe their divorce rate is higher and the odds of being married there are lower... Your rules are just ridiculous... :twisted:
The data came from a non-religious scholar, Jonathan Gruber, who by the way was also the architect of oBUMaCare. ACcording to Gruber, he found that religious people (which he quantified by church attendance) enjoy higher income than non-reigious ones in the US.

You can't compare Sweden with Spain because of different cultures. You can't compare religious Spaniards with irreligious Swedes. You can try comparing religious Swedes with irreligious ones to see if there is a difference. Similarly you can compared religious Spaniards with irreligious ones. By restricting to the same country, you are holding down many variables.

...........................................................................................................................

It seems that religious people do behave in ways that leads to prosperity. For example, the Bible says, "Thou shall not commit adultery." So assuming that religious people have a higher likelihood of not committing adultery (out of fear of heavenly punishment for sin or expectations of heavenly reward in the afterlife), then you avoid expensive divorces. According to what I read, your standard of living drops after a divorce.

Excerpt from link:
From a numbers perspective, men can face the standard of living loss between 10 and 40 percent, according to research from Utah State University. Their loss can be statistically more substantial than the woman’s loss, due to the prevalence of men paying alimony and child support, as well as the level of income they typically contribute to the marital household, according to research.

You and your divorcing spouse also would need, on average, more than a 30-percent increase in your income or your ex-spouse’s to maintain the same standard of living you had prior to your divorce, according to financial advisors at The Balance.
So this is an example of how sin leads to poverty. There are others. Data from the US says that regular church goers ( a rough proxy for religious adherence) have lower divorce, lower incarceration, lower drug and alchohol abuse. (But beware. There are some insincere church goers who don't practice the faith.) According to surveys, regular church goers are more likely to report that they are happy. I suppose you would be happy, if you are in a stable marriage, enjoy relatively high income, don't go to jail and not an addict of drugs or alchohol.

What I don't like about Gruber's essay was that he did not attribute the happy results to the avoidance of sin (or to use non religius jargon, bad behavior, shall we say?) He gave some stupid reasons why he thinks regular church goers have higher income. If you have fewer vices to spend your money on, (gambling, alchohol, cocaine, hookers etc) you can save more money. So if you invest your savings, like Ronald Read did, you will grow rich.

Maybe Gruber is a leftist. Instead of helping people to correct their ruinious behaviors and bad habits ( I avoid the word, "sin"), they blame their poverty on capitalism or racism or sexism. In so doing, the stoke the dark side of human nature - anger, envy, hate. Thus Socialist politicians rely on the Dark Side of our nature to gain votes. In the words of Marxist, Saul Alinsky, they "rub raw the sores of discontent ..."

They are not interested in healing your sores.
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