Russia is Finished! Period!

Discussion of current events
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Milo
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Re: "Putin was warned over Ukraine" says Britain's spymaster.

Post by Milo » Tue Apr 27, 2021 1:49 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 12:04 pm
Milo wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 11:33 am
Sertorio wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 11:05 am
Milo wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 10:04 am
Sertorio wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 8:25 am
Milo wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 6:51 am


So, Russia wants to overrun the Ukraine?
I don't know about wanting. But it may end up having to do it, to thwart the US using the Ukraine against Russia.
"using the Ukraine against Russia”? How would they do that?
Simple. By dragging the Ukraine into NATO and bringing NATO military bases ever closer to Russia's power center. A bit like what the Soviet Union tried to do with Cuba...
Who has ever been dragged into NATO?
All former Soviet Union satellite states in Eastern Europe, after 1990.
Funny how none of them say so.

neverfail
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Re: "Putin was warned over Ukraine" says Britain's spymaster.

Post by neverfail » Tue Apr 27, 2021 3:19 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 1:51 am

Not at all! It's just another very good example of what Patrick Armstrong was talking about in his article. “Russia is an objectively declining power economically and demographically”, said the spook, which is objectively a lie. Neither is true, although it would be true if one was speaking of the UK. Moore was just shouting "Boo!", to see if it would scare Russia. But Russia, contrarily to the UK, is a major power, with enough troops in the vicinity of the Ukraine to overrun the country before NATO could even start thinking about what to do...Pathetic... :D
Moore is not in politics but is a salaried civil servent; so he has no reason to push a bogus line intended to produce a political outcome.

Russia is known to have one of the most rapidly ageing and shrinking populations in the world - exceeded only marginally by that of the Ukraine. Indeed, I suspect the reason why Ukraine has not joined NATO is because it has not been allowed to do so due to this country's sheer unfitness to pull its weight as an alliance member.

Meantime as head of a decaying power Putin is likely to still strike out at perceived enemies _ just to rerassure his countrymen along with himself that Russia is still mighty.

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Sertorio
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Re: "Putin was warned over Ukraine" says Britain's spymaster.

Post by Sertorio » Tue Apr 27, 2021 3:41 pm

neverfail wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 3:19 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 1:51 am

Not at all! It's just another very good example of what Patrick Armstrong was talking about in his article. “Russia is an objectively declining power economically and demographically”, said the spook, which is objectively a lie. Neither is true, although it would be true if one was speaking of the UK. Moore was just shouting "Boo!", to see if it would scare Russia. But Russia, contrarily to the UK, is a major power, with enough troops in the vicinity of the Ukraine to overrun the country before NATO could even start thinking about what to do...Pathetic... :D
Moore is not in politics but is a salaried civil servent; so he has no reason to push a bogus line intended to produce a political outcome.

Russia is known to have one of the most rapidly ageing and shrinking populations in the world - exceeded only marginally by that of the Ukraine. Indeed, I suspect the reason why Ukraine has not joined NATO is because it has not been allowed to do so due to this country's sheer unfitness to pull its weight as an alliance member.

Meantime as head of a decaying power Putin is likely to still strike out at perceived enemies _ just to rerassure his countrymen along with himself that Russia is still mighty.
You too are proving Patrick Armstrong right. You fantasize Russia's decay just to reassure yourself. Unfortunately for you Russia is a lot more vigorous and determined than its decadent adversaries. I hope we both live long enough to see who is right about this...

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lzzrdgrrl
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Re: Russia is Finished! Period!

Post by lzzrdgrrl » Tue Apr 27, 2021 4:46 pm

Putin for life? Many Russians may desire leadership change, but don’t see a viable alternative
Putin likely did not make this latest move in response to declining public trust. Rather, the proposed change to the constitution, which must still be approved by Russia’s Constitutional Court and a nationwide referendum, can be explained by three other major factors.

Saving the ruble......

No political heir in sight.......

Russia’s lost opposition.......
https://theconversation.com/putin-for-l ... ive-133431

https://asiatimes.com/2021/04/putin-for ... -a-choice/
I have a certain notoriety among the lesser gods........

neverfail
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Re: "Putin was warned over Ukraine" says Britain's spymaster.

Post by neverfail » Tue Apr 27, 2021 6:04 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 3:41 pm

You too are proving Patrick Armstrong right. You fantasize Russia's decay just to reassure yourself. Unfortunately for you Russia is a lot more vigorous and determined than its decadent adversaries. I hope we both live long enough to see who is right about this...
More accurate to say that PUTIN is more determined than his indecisive opponents abroad (and as for Russia it just gets herded along by Prince Vlad). But so was Adolf Hitler in the latter 1930's and he still lost the Second World War.

Unfortunately for me
? Sertorio, why "unfortunately"? I have no axe to grind over Russia at all. I just report things as I see them. Please don't shoot the messenger.
Last edited by neverfail on Tue Apr 27, 2021 6:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.

neverfail
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Re: Russia is Finished! Period!

Post by neverfail » Tue Apr 27, 2021 6:14 pm

lzzrdgrrl wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 4:46 pm
Putin for life? Many Russians may desire leadership change, but don’t see a viable alternative
Putin likely did not make this latest move in response to declining public trust. Rather, the proposed change to the constitution, which must still be approved by Russia’s Constitutional Court and a nationwide referendum, can be explained by three other major factors.

Saving the ruble......

No political heir in sight.......

Russia’s lost opposition.......
https://theconversation.com/putin-for-l ... ive-133431

https://asiatimes.com/2021/04/putin-for ... -a-choice/
Izz,

As a recent documentary I saw pointed out: Putin seems to see himself in the role of a second Tsar Peter the Great: the autocrat who built St. Petersburg - Putin's home town. Russia over the centuries had at lease three outstanding Tsars each of whom moved Russia forward. But these presided over a Russia on the rise. Don't you get the impression that Putin, with no successor in sight and an ageing and shrinking population; don't you get the impression that Putin is presiding over what is likely to prove the sunset period of Russian history - a last afterglow blaze of glory before darkness sets in?

Ellen
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Re: Russia is Finished! Period!

Post by Ellen » Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:58 pm

"Izz,

As a recent documentary I saw pointed out: Putin seems to see himself in the role of a second Tsar Peter the Great: the autocrat who built St. Petersburg - Putin's home town. Russia over the centuries had at lease three outstanding Tsars each of whom moved Russia forward. But these presided over a Russia on the rise. Don't you get the impression that Putin, with no successor in sight and an ageing and shrinking population; don't you get the impression that Putin is presiding over what is likely to prove the sunset period of Russian history - a last afterglow blaze of glory before darkness sets in?"



This view is tempting, and it certainly is backed up by the awful demographics of Russia, combined with a renewed rise in emigration of its most educated and cosmopolitan citizens. Nonetheless, looking at the history of the past 100 years, we should be careful before believing in the obituary of Russia as a nation. The Russian people are very nationalistic and always have been, and they behave like a sheep herd. They will follow any strong man who promises them national glory because this is what resonates to them. They are not interested in tax cuts and consumer spending like the American public, or cradle to grave welfare states and a presumed moral superiority such as the Europeans indulge in.

American intellectuals always assume that the whole world is like America and their theories about individual gratification speak to everyone on the globe. George W. Bush thought the people of Iraq wanted democracy and individual rights because he was told by his advisors that these are universal desires and priorities. They are not! The people of Iraq wanted their own sectarian groups to run the Iraqi state and oppress all the other tribes; they did not want individualized democracy. What they ended up with is exactly what they wanted. Not a functioning democracy but a sectarian power grab. Similarly, the Russians want imperial glory for Mother Russia, not a consumer society. They absorb this ideology in their mother's milk.

That is why even a demographically declining Russia with a one crop economy based on a commodity that is losing value is still a formidable military and political power that punches way above its logical weight. And that is why Italy, with the same GNP as Russia, punches way below its logical weight. The nationalism of Russia will always trump the familialism and regionalism of Italy on the world stage. But,....the Italians are nicer, for whatever that is worth.

neverfail
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Re: Russia is Finished! Period!

Post by neverfail » Wed Apr 28, 2021 12:11 am

Ellen wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:58 pm
"Izz,

As a recent documentary I saw pointed out: Putin seems to see himself in the role of a second Tsar Peter the Great: the autocrat who built St. Petersburg - Putin's home town. Russia over the centuries had at lease three outstanding Tsars each of whom moved Russia forward. But these presided over a Russia on the rise. Don't you get the impression that Putin, with no successor in sight and an ageing and shrinking population; don't you get the impression that Putin is presiding over what is likely to prove the sunset period of Russian history - a last afterglow blaze of glory before darkness sets in?"



This view is tempting, and it certainly is backed up by the awful demographics of Russia, combined with a renewed rise in emigration of its most educated and cosmopolitan citizens. Nonetheless, looking at the history of the past 100 years, we should be careful before believing in the obituary of Russia as a nation. The Russian people are very nationalistic and always have been, and they behave like a sheep herd. They will follow any strong man who promises them national glory because this is what resonates to them. They are not interested in tax cuts and consumer spending like the American public, or cradle to grave welfare states and a presumed moral superiority such as the Europeans indulge in.

American intellectuals always assume that the whole world is like America and their theories about individual gratification speak to everyone on the globe. George W. Bush thought the people of Iraq wanted democracy and individual rights because he was told by his advisors that these are universal desires and priorities. They are not! The people of Iraq wanted their own sectarian groups to run the Iraqi state and oppress all the other tribes; they did not want individualized democracy. What they ended up with is exactly what they wanted. Not a functioning democracy but a sectarian power grab. Similarly, the Russians want imperial glory for Mother Russia, not a consumer society. They absorb this ideology in their mother's milk.

That is why even a demographically declining Russia with a one crop economy based on a commodity that is losing value is still a formidable military and political power that punches way above its logical weight. And that is why Italy, with the same GNP as Russia, punches way below its logical weight. The nationalism of Russia will always trump the familialism and regionalism of Italy on the world stage. But,....the Italians are nicer, for whatever that is worth.
That was/is very well put, Ellen. But can all of the nationalism in the world ever compensate Russians for their country's awful demographics - which points to a doomsday scenario within half a century?

Ellen
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Re: Russia is Finished! Period!

Post by Ellen » Wed Apr 28, 2021 12:29 am

Maybe NF. Like I said, your doomsday scenario is plausible. But, don't fall into a Spenglerian trap. Just because something MIGHT happen over the next 30-50 years based on current trends, doesn't mean it WILL happen. It also doesn't predict what will happen in the next 10 years, evn if the 30-50 year prediction is correct.

China's demographics are also horrific, and that may be a factor in explaining their growing imperialism. As the Chinese workforce declines and becomes older and less dynamic and innovative (Xi's police state will contribute to the decline in innovation, no doubt), they will need to find cheap labor and captive markets elsewhere. That might explain their voracious appetite for acquiring satrapies in the Middle East, Africa and elsewhere.

In the long term, China, Russia, and the US all have their own unique doomsday scenarios. Which one will turn out to be accurate and earliest is impossible to predict now. Maybe, there will be no superpowers at all in 10-15 years, because they will all succumb to their weaknesses, leaving............

neverfail
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Re: Russia is Finished! Period!

Post by neverfail » Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:19 pm

Ellen wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 12:29 am
Maybe NF. Like I said, your doomsday scenario is plausible. But, don't fall into a Spenglerian trap. Just because something MIGHT happen over the next 30-50 years based on current trends, doesn't mean it WILL happen. It also doesn't predict what will happen in the next 10 years, evn if the 30-50 year prediction is correct.

China's demographics are also horrific, and that may be a factor in explaining their growing imperialism. As the Chinese workforce declines and becomes older and less dynamic and innovative (Xi's police state will contribute to the decline in innovation, no doubt), they will need to find cheap labor and captive markets elsewhere. That might explain their voracious appetite for acquiring satrapies in the Middle East, Africa and elsewhere.

In the long term, China, Russia, and the US all have their own unique doomsday scenarios. Which one will turn out to be accurate and earliest is impossible to predict now. Maybe, there will be no superpowers at all in 10-15 years, because they will all succumb to their weaknesses, leaving............
:roll: "Que sera, sera!" Whatever will be, will be....

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