Russia is Finished! Period!

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Milo
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Re: Russia is Finished! Period!

Post by Milo » Wed Apr 28, 2021 5:42 pm

neverfail wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:19 pm
Ellen wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 12:29 am
Maybe NF. Like I said, your doomsday scenario is plausible. But, don't fall into a Spenglerian trap. Just because something MIGHT happen over the next 30-50 years based on current trends, doesn't mean it WILL happen. It also doesn't predict what will happen in the next 10 years, evn if the 30-50 year prediction is correct.

China's demographics are also horrific, and that may be a factor in explaining their growing imperialism. As the Chinese workforce declines and becomes older and less dynamic and innovative (Xi's police state will contribute to the decline in innovation, no doubt), they will need to find cheap labor and captive markets elsewhere. That might explain their voracious appetite for acquiring satrapies in the Middle East, Africa and elsewhere.

In the long term, China, Russia, and the US all have their own unique doomsday scenarios. Which one will turn out to be accurate and earliest is impossible to predict now. Maybe, there will be no superpowers at all in 10-15 years, because they will all succumb to their weaknesses, leaving............
:roll: "Que sera, sera!" Whatever will be, will be....
The only long-term bet is democracy. And of the ‘superpowers’ only one has it.

neverfail
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Re: Russia is Finished! Period!

Post by neverfail » Wed Apr 28, 2021 7:26 pm

Milo wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 5:42 pm
neverfail wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:19 pm


:roll: "Que sera, sera!" Whatever will be, will be....
The only long-term bet is democracy. And of the ‘superpowers’ only one has it.
If it si the one we are both thinking of then Lord help us!

Ellen
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Re: Russia is Finished! Period!

Post by Ellen » Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:54 pm

I don't think democracy is a long-term bet on anything, actually. In terms of longevity, I would bet on monarchy as the longest type of government that has ever been sustained in one run. Nowadays, monarchy has fallen into disrepute because of the very poor quality of the monarchs in early 20th century Europe and the present day Arab world.

If Prince Reza Pahlavi can somehow find his way back to the Peacock Throne in Teheran, he might be able to revive the reputation of monarchy (of the constitutional sort) as a worthwhile form of government. He has been humbled by the demise of his father's court, and this has wisened him up. Right now, he seems like a slightly comical and pathetic figure trying to lead an Iranian counter-revolution from the boredom and sterility of suburban Potomac, Maryland. But he is popular in Iran among the young people, and I wouldn't write him off..........Mossad is on his side too, and that counts for something in the present-day Middle East.

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Sertorio
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Re: Russia is Finished! Period!

Post by Sertorio » Thu Apr 29, 2021 1:22 am

Ellen wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:54 pm
I don't think democracy is a long-term bet on anything, actually. In terms of longevity, I would bet on monarchy as the longest type of government that has ever been sustained in one run. Nowadays, monarchy has fallen into disrepute because of the very poor quality of the monarchs in early 20th century Europe and the present day Arab world.

If Prince Reza Pahlavi can somehow find his way back to the Peacock Throne in Teheran, he might be able to revive the reputation of monarchy (of the constitutional sort) as a worthwhile form of government. He has been humbled by the demise of his father's court, and this has wisened him up. Right now, he seems like a slightly comical and pathetic figure trying to lead an Iranian counter-revolution from the boredom and sterility of suburban Potomac, Maryland. But he is popular in Iran among the young people, and I wouldn't write him off..........Mossad is on his side too, and that counts for something in the present-day Middle East.
You may very well be right, but who would reinstall the Pahlavis on the Iranian throne? Only after an unlikely military disaster suffered by Iran...

Ellen
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Re: Russia is Finished! Period!

Post by Ellen » Thu Apr 29, 2021 2:02 am

Sertorio wrote:
Thu Apr 29, 2021 1:22 am
Ellen wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:54 pm
I don't think democracy is a long-term bet on anything, actually. In terms of longevity, I would bet on monarchy as the longest type of government that has ever been sustained in one run. Nowadays, monarchy has fallen into disrepute because of the very poor quality of the monarchs in early 20th century Europe and the present day Arab world.

If Prince Reza Pahlavi can somehow find his way back to the Peacock Throne in Teheran, he might be able to revive the reputation of monarchy (of the constitutional sort) as a worthwhile form of government. He has been humbled by the demise of his father's court, and this has wisened him up. Right now, he seems like a slightly comical and pathetic figure trying to lead an Iranian counter-revolution from the boredom and sterility of suburban Potomac, Maryland. But he is popular in Iran among the young people, and I wouldn't write him off..........Mossad is on his side too, and that counts for something in the present-day Middle East.
You may very well be right, but who would reinstall the Pahlavis on the Iranian throne? Only after an unlikely military disaster suffered by Iran...
Probably that's correct. But, it may happen..

neverfail
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Re: Russia is Finished! Period!

Post by neverfail » Thu Apr 29, 2021 3:29 pm

Ellen wrote:
Thu Apr 29, 2021 2:02 am
Sertorio wrote:
Thu Apr 29, 2021 1:22 am
Ellen wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:54 pm
I don't think democracy is a long-term bet on anything, actually. In terms of longevity, I would bet on monarchy as the longest type of government that has ever been sustained in one run. Nowadays, monarchy has fallen into disrepute because of the very poor quality of the monarchs in early 20th century Europe and the present day Arab world.

If Prince Reza Pahlavi can somehow find his way back to the Peacock Throne in Teheran, he might be able to revive the reputation of monarchy (of the constitutional sort) as a worthwhile form of government. He has been humbled by the demise of his father's court, and this has wisened him up. Right now, he seems like a slightly comical and pathetic figure trying to lead an Iranian counter-revolution from the boredom and sterility of suburban Potomac, Maryland. But he is popular in Iran among the young people, and I wouldn't write him off..........Mossad is on his side too, and that counts for something in the present-day Middle East.
You may very well be right, but who would reinstall the Pahlavis on the Iranian throne? Only after an unlikely military disaster suffered by Iran...
Probably that's correct. But, it may happen..
So far the Iranian government has "turned the other cheek" to every provocation imitiated against them by Israel and the USA. They are not fools!

Ellen
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Re: Russia is Finished! Period!

Post by Ellen » Thu Apr 29, 2021 7:18 pm

That's not true at all. They are planting missiles along all of Israel's borders that they can control (Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria). These missile installations are being bombed or blown up, at a certain rate, but Hezbollah still has over 100,000 of them pointing straight at the Israeli population.

They're the ones engaged in provocations (including old-fashioned terrorism via their proxies), and they are paying for it and will continue to pay for it. At some point their accumulated losses and perceived humiliation, combined with internal decay and ultimately revolt, will lead to the replacement of that regime. But one can never know where the tipping point will be, and what precipitating event will cause the overthrow. Did anyone guess that the self-immolation of a Tunisian fruitseller would lead to the quick overthrow of the very stable Tunisian dictatorship, thus leading to a chain reaction in 4 other Arab countries?

The point is, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards are playing a dangerous game with Israel and its various allies and collaborators. They will eventually lose at this game, just as all of Israel's enemies have lost. Unlike the PLO, which is being propped up by the Israeli government for its own reasons of self-interest, the self-interest of all of Iran's competitors is in ushering in a democratic regime, led by Prince Pahlavi, if possible. Unlike the Palestinians, the Iranian people are friendly to Israel and America. The Iranian regime does not represent the views of its people.

neverfail
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Re: Russia is Finished! Period!

Post by neverfail » Thu Apr 29, 2021 9:16 pm

Ellen wrote:
Thu Apr 29, 2021 7:18 pm
That's not true at all. They are planting missiles along all of Israel's borders that they can control (Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria). These missile installations are being bombed or blown up, at a certain rate, but Hezbollah still has over 100,000 of them pointing straight at the Israeli population.

They're the ones engaged in provocations (including old-fashioned terrorism via their proxies), and they are paying for it and will continue to pay for it. At some point their accumulated losses and perceived humiliation, combined with internal decay and ultimately revolt, will lead to the replacement of that regime. But one can never know where the tipping point will be, and what precipitating event will cause the overthrow. Did anyone guess that the self-immolation of a Tunisian fruitseller would lead to the quick overthrow of the very stable Tunisian dictatorship, thus leading to a chain reaction in 4 other Arab countries?

The point is, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards are playing a dangerous game with Israel and its various allies and collaborators. They will eventually lose at this game, just as all of Israel's enemies have lost. Unlike the PLO, which is being propped up by the Israeli government for its own reasons of self-interest, the self-interest of all of Iran's competitors is in ushering in a democratic regime, led by Prince Pahlavi, if possible. Unlike the Palestinians, the Iranian people are friendly to Israel and America. The Iranian regime does not represent the views of its people.
Your posts are always worth reading Ellen.

Yet for all that you and I know Iran (the nation, not the regime) may have more to fear from Israel than vice-versa.

You have of course heard of Dimona?
thttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Israel#:~:text=Estimates%20of%20Israel's%20stockpile%20range,to%20intercontinental%20range%20ballistic%20missiles.

Nuclear weapons and Israel

Estimates of Israel's stockpile range between 80 and 400 nuclear warheads,[6][7][8][19][2][10] and the country is believed to possess the ability to deliver them in several methods, including by aircraft; as submarine-launched cruise missiles; and the Jericho series of intermediate to intercontinental range ballistic missiles.
Of course no Israeli government would own up to Israel being nuclear armed - the doubt sown being a ploy designed to instill fear in the country's perceived enemies abroad. But do you wonder therefore why Iran aspires to match Israel in this way?

Compared to that Iran and Hezbollah proxies having thousands of missiles armed only with mere conventional explosive warheads should not be a bother at all.

Misrepresenting Israel as the eternal poor, vulnerable little innocent victim simply won't wash.

Ellen
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Re: Russia is Finished! Period!

Post by Ellen » Thu Apr 29, 2021 11:09 pm

NF,

Having nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them is not the panacea that some may think. Afterall, the PLO and other Arabs have been terrorizing Israel across its borders (and within its borders once) for 73 years, and how does having nuclear weapons solve that problem? It doesn't even solve the problem of combatting missile barages. Do you think Israel can nuke Hamas in Gaza every time they shower Israeli towns with missiles? Or even if Iran would do that?

Nuclear weapons are useful for a country like Israel only one minute before total defeat. They are the great equalizer at the end of a war of attrition to prevent defeat. But one cannot use them to retaliate against every little suicidal terror attack, clearly.

This is where territorial depth and control really, really matter. Ask the Russians with their 11 time zones of strategic depth. Ask Iran which cries that having a country the size of continental Europe isn't quite big enough to defend themselves against Arab invasions from Iraq (as in 1980 with Saddam Hussein), therefore they must occupy and control Iraq. That was their solution to the problem of invasive neighbors.

In that spirit, therefore I can predict there will never be a withdrawal from the Jordan River as Israel's eastern boundary. If push comes to shove, the Arabs in the West Bank will be pushed eastward, but the IDF will not move westward. Even more, I would predict that Israel - with an Iranian-style justification - will end up back in Sinai again, right at the old banks of the Suez Canal, when General Sisi's regime finally collapses. The IDF will end up somewhere among the Cedars of Lebanon in the future as well. And when it arrives there, it will say hello to either the Turkish army or the friendly Russians, who are now our allies of a sort.

This is the direction that things are taking in the Middle East. The only real protection is taking land with one's army, and settling one's citizens or proxies in these territories. The Iranians are doing this, so are the Turks, and even the Russians. This is good old-fashioned 19th century behavior that John Kerry once thought was so out of date. Well, the wheel turns and it's coming back. He is the one who is sadly out of his depth and out of date.

Someday soon, people will begin to miss the security and stability that American "imperialism" offered for 70 years after WWII. Without it, it's a jungle out there.

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Sertorio
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Re: Russia is Finished! Period!

Post by Sertorio » Fri Apr 30, 2021 1:09 am

Ellen wrote:
Thu Apr 29, 2021 11:09 pm

Someday soon, people will begin to miss the security and stability that American "imperialism" offered for 70 years after WWII. Without it, it's a jungle out there.
The security of tyranny and arbitrary imposition of will does not appeal to me. A sharing of spheres of influence between China, Russia, Europe and (why not?) the US, with a lot of trade among them, will offer all of us more security, stability and fairness than any Empire could ever do. With power divided by four centers, without any one being capable of dominating the other three, bullying will be a thing of the past.

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