Can Americans Win Wars?

Discussion of current events
neverfail
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Re: Can Americans Win Wars?

Post by neverfail » Tue Apr 13, 2021 2:31 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Tue Apr 13, 2021 2:40 am

Neverfail, I was commenting on Milo's defense of the American "restraint" in the use of lethal force...A restraint comparable to that of Gengis Khan and his Mongol horde...But at least Gengis Khan wasn't a religious nut, nor did he kill in the name of any god...
No, and nor did the Americans.

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cassowary
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Re: Can Americans Win Wars?

Post by cassowary » Tue Apr 13, 2021 3:52 pm

neverfail wrote:
Mon Apr 12, 2021 9:07 pm
cassowary wrote:
Mon Apr 12, 2021 8:01 pm
Yes, that's true and its because of oBUMa that they lost the politics. All he had to do was to come to an agreement on putting troops in Iraq. Bush II had done all the hard work.
No! The seeds were sown by the Bush administration during and immediately after the invasion. They went into that country with no plan for the subsequent rehabilitation of that country that could possibly work.

One of the stupidist things they did was to disband the Iraq army inherited from Saddam Hussein. Comprised of Sunni Muslims the men enlisted in it had no other way to earn a livelihood other than through their army pay. Many, with nowhere else to go (and with scores to settle with the foreign invader/occupier of their country) then became willing recruits for ISIS.

Bush (an ignorant, ill informed American) sowed the seeds and it was Obama's sorry lot to reap the bitter fruit that had grown from those seeds planted by his predecessor in office. Bush should never have ordered the invasion of Iraq in the first place. No justification for it!
What you said about the effect of disbanding Saddam’s army is true but Bush defeated al Qaeda in Iraq. To keep the peace and retain American influence, all oBUMa had to do was to maintain US troops there. Iraq then came under Iranian influence. They lost the politics means Iraq went from American influence to Iranian influence.

If they had retained Saddam’s army later on, could they launch a coup after the Americans left? Maybe they should find them jobs doing what?
The Imp :D

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Sertorio
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Re: Can Americans Win Wars?

Post by Sertorio » Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:37 pm

neverfail wrote:
Tue Apr 13, 2021 2:31 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Tue Apr 13, 2021 2:40 am

Neverfail, I was commenting on Milo's defense of the American "restraint" in the use of lethal force...A restraint comparable to that of Gengis Khan and his Mongol horde...But at least Gengis Khan wasn't a religious nut, nor did he kill in the name of any god...
No, and nor did the Americans.
Are you sure?..."So help me God!" seems to be the Americans leit motiv in all circumstances...

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Sertorio
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Re: Can Americans Win Wars?

Post by Sertorio » Wed Apr 14, 2021 2:45 am

US cannot afford a world war with Russia
Biden administration's renewed encirclement policy of Russia could backfire badly in Ukraine and beyond
By BRANDON J WEICHERT - APRIL 14, 2021
https://asiatimes.com/2021/04/us-cannot ... th-russia/

Russia’s autocratic strongman, President Vladimir Putin, finds himself in an unenviable position. He is deeply unpopular at home. An old political rival, Alexei Navalny, has returned home from abroad in an attempt to overturn Putin’s increasingly unpopular regime.

Moreover, it appears to Putin as though US President Joe Biden is leading NATO and the European Union (EU) in a renewed encirclement strategy meant to break Russian power in Europe and ultimately push Putin himself from power.

Whether or not the West is stoking the flames of resentment and regime change in Russia, the fact remains that Putin clearly believes the West is responsible—which further threatens regional security at a time when American power is being stretched to its breaking point all throughout Eurasia.

Meanwhile, Putin endures what he believes are endless personal slights from the West. For example, in a bizarre interview with ABC News, Biden (correctly) labeled Putin a “killer.” While true, it is hardly helpful in defusing a geopolitical crisis that could easily devolve into a world war.

In March 2021, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted, “[The Ukrainian government] has approved the Strategy for Deoccupation & Reintegration of Crimea, a historic document needed since 2014. The signal is crystal clear: we don’t just call on the world to help us return Crimea, Ukraine makes own dedicated & systemic efforts.”

To be clear, even without all of the political turmoil within Russia threatening Putin’s continued rule, the Kremlin views any attempt by Ukraine to reclaim Crimea as a casus belli. Despite whatever notions of Ukrainian military might that Kiev’s leaders may harbor, without considerable Western, spelled American, support, Ukraine’s military would be crushed by the hulking Russian military force just beyond their contested eastern borders.

The Russian military buildup did not begin in earnest until the Ukrainian government officially declared their intent to reclaim Crimea at all costs. While it is completely understandable that Kiev would want territory that was stolen from them by Russia in 2014, Biden must tell Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky that Eastern Ukraine isn’t worth the bones of a single American GI.

What’s more, it’s unlikely that the West would go to war for Ukraine. Ukraine is not a NATO member. And there is a stunning lack of consensus among NATO’s European members about the severity of the Russian threat.

Without this much-needed consensus, any attempt to deploy military force in defense of Ukrainian sovereignty will not succeed and only make NATO look bad.

While it is easy to blame Moscow for the hostilities (in part, Russia is responsible), the fact is that the Biden administration entered the White House thumping its chest at Russia. It comes after four years of the previous Trump administration doing everything in its power to mitigate the risk of higher tensions with Moscow.

Although Russo-American relations did not return to the highs they reached in the immediate aftermath of the Cold War, Trump’s policy toward Russia did allow for Washington to fixate on the far more severe threats of China and Iran.

We are, sadly, witnessing the exact same pattern that led to Russia’s victory over Georgia in 2008. The pattern repeated again in 2014, during the Euromaidan Protests in Ukraine. In each example, Washington encouraged these protean democracies along Russia’s border to act boldly against perceived Russian aggression… while the West never intended to militarily intervene on behalf of those weaker allies against an irate Russian bear.

Putin does not need to take all of Ukraine to defeat the West, either. Nor did Putin need to take all of Georgia in 2008. All that Moscow needs to take is another small slice of Ukraine.

Putin’s salami slice strategy has worked thus far throughout what Russia considers its “Near-Abroad”, so why assume Moscow won’t repeat these actions? Why would anyone believe that the Biden administration will do anything other than balk at an actual Russian invasion of Eastern Ukraine, as previous American administrations have done?

Looking at Georgia in 2008 and Crimea in 2014, American guarantees don’t appear to be worth very much. And why does any American leader want to be committed to a world war with nuclear-armed Russia for Ukraine?

If war did erupt between Russia and the US, America’s victory is not assured. This is especially true given that every wargame the US military has played in which this same scenario is depicted, America “gets its ass handed to it by Russia.”

Already, Moscow is effectively challenging the US in the Arctic. Russian forces are running roughshod over the Middle East and Africa. Recently, Russia has also engaged in shockingly reckless behavior in space.

More gallingly, Moscow was responsible for the worst sustained cyber-espionage campaign in American history last year. All Washington has done is issue stern diplomatic demarches and encourage their allies to act irresponsibly (while Washington can do little to deter Russia).

Unless Biden acts now to restore direct diplomacy with Russia over Ukraine, Putin will take Eastern Ukraine. At that point, Ukraine will be a defunct state and the West will have to either accept the new paradigm or blunder into another world war on the European continent—all while trying to respond to China’s challenge in the Indo-Pacific.

The next four weeks are going to be instrumental in determining what happens next. The US cannot afford a world war with Russia. President Biden must choose peace.
While the writer has fallen prey to the anti-Russia hysteria, he seems lucid enough to understand the consequences of the US crazy policies. Those of you who are always wary of Russian propaganda may be more prepared to accept the reasoning of one of your own...

neverfail
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Re: Can Americans Win Wars?

Post by neverfail » Wed Apr 14, 2021 3:03 am

Sertorio wrote:
Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:37 pm
neverfail wrote:
Tue Apr 13, 2021 2:31 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Tue Apr 13, 2021 2:40 am

Neverfail, I was commenting on Milo's defense of the American "restraint" in the use of lethal force...A restraint comparable to that of Gengis Khan and his Mongol horde...But at least Gengis Khan wasn't a religious nut, nor did he kill in the name of any god...
No, and nor did the Americans.
Are you sure?..."So help me God!" seems to be the Americans leit motiv in all circumstances...
They even print the words "in God we trust" on their banknotes, but so what?

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Sertorio
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Re: Can Americans Win Wars?

Post by Sertorio » Wed Apr 14, 2021 3:10 am

neverfail wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 3:03 am
Sertorio wrote:
Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:37 pm
neverfail wrote:
Tue Apr 13, 2021 2:31 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Tue Apr 13, 2021 2:40 am

Neverfail, I was commenting on Milo's defense of the American "restraint" in the use of lethal force...A restraint comparable to that of Gengis Khan and his Mongol horde...But at least Gengis Khan wasn't a religious nut, nor did he kill in the name of any god...
No, and nor did the Americans.
Are you sure?..."So help me God!" seems to be the Americans leit motiv in all circumstances...
They even print the words "in God we trust" on their banknotes, but so what?
It means that, whatever they do, including bombing civilians, is done in the name of God, for the greater glory of God, and deserving God's help... I'm sure God would be delighted with the killing of children in the ME...

neverfail
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Re: Can Americans Win Wars?

Post by neverfail » Wed Apr 14, 2021 3:34 am

cassowary wrote:
Tue Apr 13, 2021 3:52 pm
neverfail wrote:
Mon Apr 12, 2021 9:07 pm
cassowary wrote:
Mon Apr 12, 2021 8:01 pm
Yes, that's true and its because of oBUMa that they lost the politics. All he had to do was to come to an agreement on putting troops in Iraq. Bush II had done all the hard work.
No! The seeds were sown by the Bush administration during and immediately after the invasion. They went into that country with no plan for the subsequent rehabilitation of that country that could possibly work.

One of the stupidist things they did was to disband the Iraq army inherited from Saddam Hussein. Comprised of Sunni Muslims the men enlisted in it had no other way to earn a livelihood other than through their army pay. Many, with nowhere else to go (and with scores to settle with the foreign invader/occupier of their country) then became willing recruits for ISIS.

Bush (an ignorant, ill informed American) sowed the seeds and it was Obama's sorry lot to reap the bitter fruit that had grown from those seeds planted by his predecessor in office. Bush should never have ordered the invasion of Iraq in the first place. No justification for it!
What you said about the effect of disbanding Saddam’s army is true but Bush defeated al Qaeda in Iraq.
Well, lah-de-dah and whoppie doodle for Georgie-Porgie. Considering that there was no sign of al Queda operating in Iraq as long as Saddam Hussein ruled Bush could have stopped al Quida from ever emerging in Iraq by letting well enough alone allowing that monster of a dictator to continue doing his good work keeping the radical Islamic militants down.

Instead al Queda morphed into something even worse:

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/ti ... amic-state

Or have you forgotton ISIS and the rise of their Caliphate?

To keep the peace and retain American influence, all oBUMa had to do was to maintain US troops there. Iraq then came under Iranian influence. They lost the politics means Iraq went from American influence to Iranian influence.
Are you ignorent (with an American sort of vacuity) of the fact that two thirds of Iraq's population was and is Shia? Thats the same sort of Islam that they adhere to in Iran. If only because of this I see Iraq's drift into the Iranian sphere post-Saddam as having been inevitable and even marvel at how it took so long to happen.

A permanent American army of occupation as you seem to advocate was and is no solution. Do not blame Obama Cassowary as his blockhead of a predecessor set that change into motion by removing Saddam Hussein and his Baathist Party (representing Iraq's Sunni and all other non-Shia minorities other than Kudrds) from power. Bush could have prevented this simply by leaving well enough alone and NOT INVADING IRAQ (as wiser heads at the time urged him).
If they had retained Saddam’s army later on, could they launch a coup after the Americans left?
They probably would have; but so what? Considering the mainly Sunni composition (especially of its officer corp) of that army in Saddam's day the coup when it occurred would have been an anti-Iranian one that would have kept Iraq permanently outside the Iranian sphere.

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Alexis
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Re: Can Americans Win Wars?

Post by Alexis » Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:21 am

1. America can't win unwinnable wars, that is those whose political objective (all wars are fought for political objectives) is not attainable + those which cannot technically be won (that is, with present technology) + those which the American people is not convinced the price for victory would be worth it

That obviously includes:
- Invading a country, impoverishing it further, taking its resources under control, killing its civilians and resistance fighters, and expecting its people to follow along. See: Iraq
- Occupying indefinitely a fragmented country and expecting foreigners killing locals will motivate said locals to unite and thank the occupiers. See: Afghanistan
- Conquering or destroying a nuclear-armed country without said country using nuclear weapons in reprisal. See: North Korea e.g. Because that can't be done with present technology
- Conquering the Donbass for the sake of Ukrainian government. Technically doable using US forces and without crossing Russia's threshold to go nuclear... but a long and very costly endeavour (tens of thousands KIA probably) and the American people would clearly be difficult to convince to pay such a price for a country which is not even a treaty ally

2. America among the Earth's nations has the best ability to win winnable wars, that is: all the others.

This is a general consequence of the combination of size + technological development of US forces. Several countries have similar size, several countries have similar technological development, but no country except the USA has the combination of both.

Which in turns reflects the fact that the US defense budget is larger than the combined budget of the ten following big spenders... not far from half the defense budget of the whole human race!

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Sertorio
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Re: Can Americans Win Wars?

Post by Sertorio » Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:58 am

Alexis wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:21 am

- Conquering the Donbass for the sake of Ukrainian government. Technically doable using US forces and without crossing Russia's threshold to go nuclear... but a long and very costly endeavour (tens of thousands KIA probably) and the American people would clearly be difficult to convince to pay such a price for a country which is not even a treaty ally
No way the US/NATO could move enough troops to conquer the Donbass. The existence a few kilometers away of the whole Russia armed forces would make such endeavour impossible.

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Alexis
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Re: Can Americans Win Wars?

Post by Alexis » Wed Apr 14, 2021 7:39 am

Sertorio wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:58 am
Alexis wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:21 am

- Conquering the Donbass for the sake of Ukrainian government. Technically doable using US forces and without crossing Russia's threshold to go nuclear... but a long and very costly endeavour (tens of thousands KIA probably) and the American people would clearly be difficult to convince to pay such a price for a country which is not even a treaty ally
No way the US/NATO could move enough troops to conquer the Donbass. The existence a few kilometers away of the whole Russia armed forces would make such endeavour impossible.
The US could do that. Check their Army, check their Air Force. Compare with Russia.

But the point is entirely theoretical. Russia could make this endeavour far too costly for the American people to accept paying such a price.

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