India will win by outlasting China.

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neverfail
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Re: India will win by outlasting China.

Post by neverfail » Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:06 am

cassowary wrote:
Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:01 pm
The thing about authoritiarian countries like Russia is that we don't know how accurate their statistics are. Same goes for China. From history, we observe that the bureaucrats in such places are very scared of delivering to the Big Boss bad news. Mao, for example, was the last to know that his people were starving during the Great Leap Forward.
You may well be right there Cass:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56454701

Coronavirus: How Russia glosses over its Covid death toll

The demographer's story


"I don't even look at those numbers," demographer Alexei Raksha says, and claims that the daily data in Russia has been "smoothed, rounded, lowered" to look better.

Officials have always denied that.

Alexei worked at Rosstat for six years until he says he was forced to leave last summer for being too vocal about Covid. But he says Rosstat's numbers are critical to assessing the real cost of the pandemic and, like many experts, he uses excess mortality as the best indicator.

"If Russia stops at 500,000 excess deaths, that will be a good scenario," the now freelance demographer argues. He calculates that the current toll is pushing 450,000 - a giant leap from the 94,267 deaths published online on Friday by Russia's Covid headquarters.

Even that lower number is rarely cited by officials, though.

"In Covid, you choose between the economy and people's lives - mostly older people's lives," is how Alexei sees the government's rationale. We met in a coffee bar - there's been no lockdown here since Spring.

"The Russian state chose the economy. They won't say it, but it's obvious."
While we only have this man's testimomy, it supports your allegation that the Russian government might be cooking the mortality figures.

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Sertorio
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Re: India will win by outlasting China.

Post by Sertorio » Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:34 am

neverfail wrote:
Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:06 am
cassowary wrote:
Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:01 pm
The thing about authoritiarian countries like Russia is that we don't know how accurate their statistics are. Same goes for China. From history, we observe that the bureaucrats in such places are very scared of delivering to the Big Boss bad news. Mao, for example, was the last to know that his people were starving during the Great Leap Forward.
You may well be right there Cass:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56454701

Coronavirus: How Russia glosses over its Covid death toll

The demographer's story


"I don't even look at those numbers," demographer Alexei Raksha says, and claims that the daily data in Russia has been "smoothed, rounded, lowered" to look better.

Officials have always denied that.

Alexei worked at Rosstat for six years until he says he was forced to leave last summer for being too vocal about Covid. But he says Rosstat's numbers are critical to assessing the real cost of the pandemic and, like many experts, he uses excess mortality as the best indicator.

"If Russia stops at 500,000 excess deaths, that will be a good scenario," the now freelance demographer argues. He calculates that the current toll is pushing 450,000 - a giant leap from the 94,267 deaths published online on Friday by Russia's Covid headquarters.

Even that lower number is rarely cited by officials, though.

"In Covid, you choose between the economy and people's lives - mostly older people's lives," is how Alexei sees the government's rationale. We met in a coffee bar - there's been no lockdown here since Spring.

"The Russian state chose the economy. They won't say it, but it's obvious."
While we only have this man's testimomy, it supports your allegation that the Russian government might be cooking the mortality figures.
Or it might not. Just like most countries in the world. Why this obsession with Russia and China? Do you think that by trying to make people believe they are a nasty bunch, they will be any worse than the US or Australia?...Why becoming the mouthpiece of the worst propaganda the West can produce?...

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cassowary
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Re: Why I prefer Democracy.

Post by cassowary » Tue Apr 06, 2021 4:24 am

neverfail wrote:
Tue Apr 06, 2021 2:47 am
cassowary wrote:
Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:08 pm
I agree with you. Democracy is the best form of government. But we should take things one step further. Since we both agree that democracy has its shortcomings, what can we do to reduce or remove those shortcomings? Don't we need to think of reforms before China's totalitarian system destroys democracy?
Cass, democracy is in retreat in the very coutries where it has been established longest. Oddly, it is not the PRC that is directly the cause but the security state that is making inroads against personal privacy and the freedoms we enjoy. When the twin towers were brought down inj NYC on Sept 11, 2001 the enemies of democracy won a great victory. Not from the destruction of the high rises and the thousands of deaths but from the subsequent reaction to it.

Presently I can see no end to it. The PRC challenge shall only exabberate that trend.
You have to adapt to the threat to save lives. I am more worried about huge government debts.
The Imp :D

neverfail
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Location: Singapore

Re: Why I prefer Democracy.

Post by neverfail » Tue Apr 06, 2021 6:29 pm

neverfail wrote:
Tue Apr 06, 2021 2:47 am

Cass, democracy is in retreat in the very coutries where it has been established longest. Oddly, it is not the PRC that is directly the cause but the security state that is making inroads against personal privacy and the freedoms we enjoy. When the twin towers were brought down inj NYC on Sept 11, 2001 the enemies of democracy won a great victory. Not from the destruction of the high rises and the thousands of deaths but from the subsequent reaction to it.

Presently I can see no end to it. The PRC challenge shall only exabberate that trend.
cassowary wrote:
Tue Apr 06, 2021 4:24 am
You have to adapt to the threat to save lives.
Good point. While I trust in our system of government that is not the same as blindly trusting those we elect to govern us. The more power you allow them the more opportunities that are available to abuse and misuse those powers. Further, our counter-espoinage and national security agencies are not even elected but headed by appointed officials and protected by special legislation that makes these hard to bring to account.
cassowary wrote:
Tue Apr 06, 2021 4:24 am
I am more worried about huge government debts.
Me too Cass. Considering the scale of the debt already amassed I am amazed that the world has not by now had a massive fiscal crisis and economic upheaval.

neverfail
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Re: India will win by outlasting China.

Post by neverfail » Tue Apr 06, 2021 6:39 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:34 am
Why this obsession with Russia and China?
Because these remind me too much of the Axis powers of past memory such as Nazi Germany; Imperial Japan and Fascist Italy. Are you so damned ignorent of 20th century global, even European, history that you cannot see the behavioural resemblance?
Do you think that by trying to make people believe they are a nasty bunch, they will be any worse than the US or Australia?...Why becoming the mouthpiece of the worst propaganda the West can produce?...
I cannot "make" (as in "compel") anyone believe anything they do not want to believe. Any thoughts I express on this website are my own and I take exception to any accusation that I am anyone's "propaganda mouthpiece".

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Sertorio
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Re: India will win by outlasting China.

Post by Sertorio » Wed Apr 07, 2021 1:57 am

neverfail wrote:
Tue Apr 06, 2021 6:39 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:34 am
Why this obsession with Russia and China?
Because these remind me too much of the Axis powers of past memory such as Nazi Germany; Imperial Japan and Fascist Italy. Are you so damned ignorent of 20th century global, even European, history that you cannot see the behavioural resemblance?
Do you think that by trying to make people believe they are a nasty bunch, they will be any worse than the US or Australia?...Why becoming the mouthpiece of the worst propaganda the West can produce?...
I cannot "make" (as in "compel") anyone believe anything they do not want to believe. Any thoughts I express on this website are my own and I take exception to any accusation that I am anyone's "propaganda mouthpiece".
The funny (?) thing is that present day US looks a lot more like Nazi Germany than Russia or China. Both the internal and external policies of the US are based on the use of force, censorship is spreading all over the media, and while "deplorables" are not yet treated like Jews were in Nazi Germany, the difference is becoming smaller by the day.

People in both China and Russia are more satisfied with their governments than people in the western countries. China and Russia are reasonably peaceful and dissent is not a major problem in either country. The West may try to build up the Uyghur issue or Navalny's pathetic efforts to become relevant to the level of major human rights violations, but neither is. Chinese are a lot better off than they ever were, and Russians are a lot more prosperous than they ever were. Both countries are reasonably well run and they do not threaten anybody. Ukraine may be a problem, as far as Russia is concerned, but the conflict was all Ukrainian made. And it is the Ukraine which threatens to start fighting again, hoping to drag the US and NATO into that fighting. This is all very irrational, and we may fear that Western's policies of hatred against China and Russia will end in a major war. Once more.

neverfail
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Re: India will win by outlasting China.

Post by neverfail » Wed Apr 07, 2021 4:37 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Wed Apr 07, 2021 1:57 am

The funny (?) thing is that present day US looks a lot more like Nazi Germany than Russia or China. Both the internal and external policies of the US are based on the use of force, censorship is spreading all over the media, and while "deplorables" are not yet treated like Jews were in Nazi Germany, the difference is becoming smaller by the day.
Twaddle!
People in both China and Russia are more satisfied with their governments than people in the western countries.
More RESIGNED, not satisfied. When do they get to have a choice?

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cassowary
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Re: India will win by outlasting China.

Post by cassowary » Wed Apr 07, 2021 5:21 pm

neverfail wrote:
Tue Apr 06, 2021 6:39 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:34 am
Why this obsession with Russia and China?
Because these remind me too much of the Axis powers of past memory such as Nazi Germany; Imperial Japan and Fascist Italy. Are you so damned ignorent of 20th century global, even European, history that you cannot see the behavioural resemblance?
Do you think that by trying to make people believe they are a nasty bunch, they will be any worse than the US or Australia?...Why becoming the mouthpiece of the worst propaganda the West can produce?...
I cannot "make" (as in "compel") anyone believe anything they do not want to believe. Any thoughts I express on this website are my own and I take exception to any accusation that I am anyone's "propaganda mouthpiece".
Sertorio May be projecting his own role as mouthpiece. We have Long suspected that he is working for the IRA.

...........................................................

Sertorio has long fascinated me. He is the subject of my endless speculation. IRA troll? Marxist activist who wasted his life as an activist? Illegitimate son of an American soldier who abandoned him and his mother?
The Imp :D

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cassowary
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Re: Why I prefer Democracy.

Post by cassowary » Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:37 am

neverfail wrote:
Tue Apr 06, 2021 6:29 pm
neverfail wrote:
Tue Apr 06, 2021 2:47 am

Cass, democracy is in retreat in the very coutries where it has been established longest. Oddly, it is not the PRC that is directly the cause but the security state that is making inroads against personal privacy and the freedoms we enjoy. When the twin towers were brought down inj NYC on Sept 11, 2001 the enemies of democracy won a great victory. Not from the destruction of the high rises and the thousands of deaths but from the subsequent reaction to it.

Presently I can see no end to it. The PRC challenge shall only exabberate that trend.
cassowary wrote:
Tue Apr 06, 2021 4:24 am
You have to adapt to the threat to save lives.
Good point. While I trust in our system of government that is not the same as blindly trusting those we elect to govern us. The more power you allow them the more opportunities that are available to abuse and misuse those powers. Further, our counter-espoinage and national security agencies are not even elected but headed by appointed officials and protected by special legislation that makes these hard to bring to account.
Life is full of trade offs. For the sake of safety, we had to allow our governments to intrude more into our privacy. I assume you are referring to the Patriot Act (and similar measures in other countries).

Our nation was founded on such a trade off. Instead of Islamist terrorists, we had Communist terrorists. The Internal Security Act allowed the government to intern people without trial. It was meant to be applied to security threats that could not be dealt with in a court of law. Without this Act, Singapore would have falled to the Communists and thousands would have died. The country would be poor like North Korea. Now we are free and prosperous. We consider it a good trade off.

Our founding story taught us that perfection is impossible and compromises with ideals are inevitable.
cassowary wrote:
Tue Apr 06, 2021 4:24 am
I am more worried about huge government debts.
Me too Cass. Considering the scale of the debt already amassed I am amazed that the world has not by now had a massive fiscal crisis and economic upheaval.
Be afraid. Be very afraid of the future.

The Imp :D

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Sertorio
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Re: India will win by outlasting China.

Post by Sertorio » Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:35 am

cassowary wrote:
Wed Apr 07, 2021 5:21 pm
neverfail wrote:
Tue Apr 06, 2021 6:39 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:34 am
Why this obsession with Russia and China?
Because these remind me too much of the Axis powers of past memory such as Nazi Germany; Imperial Japan and Fascist Italy. Are you so damned ignorent of 20th century global, even European, history that you cannot see the behavioural resemblance?
Do you think that by trying to make people believe they are a nasty bunch, they will be any worse than the US or Australia?...Why becoming the mouthpiece of the worst propaganda the West can produce?...
I cannot "make" (as in "compel") anyone believe anything they do not want to believe. Any thoughts I express on this website are my own and I take exception to any accusation that I am anyone's "propaganda mouthpiece".
Sertorio May be projecting his own role as mouthpiece. We have Long suspected that he is working for the IRA.
WE? That's you and Milo. Milo, as a lawyer does not believe 95% of what he says, so that's irrelevant. And you, as a Calvinist, have long replaced reason with faith, and so what you say is mostly fantasy...

You are both worthy servants of the American Moloch... :twisted:

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