But what pro-rate percentage of Syria's (by now much diminished) population do those 50 tribes combined add up to? 1%? 2%?Sertorio wrote: ↑Sun Aug 23, 2020 3:16 am
As for "the US led coalition" it looks to me more like a coalition in which US involvement was manipulated by America's regional allies. Saudi Arabia and Gulf state allies have been supporting one rebel faction (linked to Isis) while Turkey has been supporting another - and the USA has reluctantly stepped into line rather than lose credibility with ME allies. Or are you unaware that sometimes US foreign policy moves are in response to initiaves taken by foreign allies abroad?
I see the USA as very much the follower, not the leader, in Syria policy.
Then on the opposing side: apart from Russian air support the Assad regime has benefitted mightily from Iranian support. It all relates back to religious allegance. Syris has a Shia Muslim minority which Assad (who is neither Shia nor Sunni) has been the protector of - so Hezbollah and Iran supports Assad in return. Indeed, the Assad regime has survived for three generations by assermbling a coalition of support from out of Syria's religious minorities including Alawite, Shia and Christian against the anticipated vengeance of the 60% of Syrians who are Sunni.
That puts the Assad regime in a similar position to the late Saddam Hussein's in Iraq: majority population = 60% Shia; Sunni = minority half the demographic size; Hussein was Sunni so Hassain protected his own.
By comparison the factions that Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Turkey support both get their members from Syria's Sunni majority population.
Considering how many foreign powers have been sticking their big wooden oars in stirring the boiling
Syrian cauldron I can confidently say that whatever opinions ordinary Syrians hold and voice counts for absolutely nothing in this contest of strength.
Now, please explain how this compatres to the American civil war - which in its day external powers dilligently kept out of?