Egypt, Turkey send troops into Libya.

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neverfail
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Egypt, Turkey send troops into Libya.

Post by neverfail » Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:28 pm

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/ ... 15828.html

Egypt's parliament approves troop deployment to Libya
(Now, wait for it!)
Move comes as Libya gov't and Turkey demand an end of foreign intervention in support of commander Khalifa Haftar.
:lol: :lol: :lol:

What a hypocrite Turkey's political strongman Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is: to demand that "foreign" (read Egyptian forces abstain from supporting the Benghazi (rebel?) government of western Libya (the part closest to Egypt itself) while giving no undertaking to withdraw Turkish forces that are presently invested in western Libya in support of the government in Tripoli - that barely hangs on to the official capital of Libya.

The Egyptian foray is obviously a defencive move in belated response to the Turkish ploy on the other side of Libya. If each keeps to its side of this divided country then there should be no problems. Indeed, between them Turkey and Egypt might even jointly play the role of peacemakers in a country that for years has been in a state of civil war. This is not guaranteed however as I believe that Erdoğan has great power dreams in the Mediterranean/levantine region for his country. Bad news for Egypt whichy yould have it their national interest to thwart Turkish ambition.

Libya has oilfields on both sides of the country. Egypt seems destined to become the power broker in deciding the disposal of the oil in eastern Libya while Turkey does the same with the oil of western Libya.

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Sertorio
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Re: Egypt, Turkey send troops into Libya.

Post by Sertorio » Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:11 pm

neverfail wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:28 pm
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/ ... 15828.html

Egypt's parliament approves troop deployment to Libya
(Now, wait for it!)
Move comes as Libya gov't and Turkey demand an end of foreign intervention in support of commander Khalifa Haftar.
:lol: :lol: :lol:

What a hypocrite Turkey's political strongman Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is: to demand that "foreign" (read Egyptian forces abstain from supporting the Benghazi (rebel?) government of western Libya (the part closest to Egypt itself) while giving no undertaking to withdraw Turkish forces that are presently invested in western Libya in support of the government in Tripoli - that barely hangs on to the official capital of Libya.

The Egyptian foray is obviously a defencive move in belated response to the Turkish ploy on the other side of Libya. If each keeps to its side of this divided country then there should be no problems. Indeed, between them Turkey and Egypt might even jointly play the role of peacemakers in a country that for years has been in a state of civil war. This is not guaranteed however as I believe that Erdoğan has great power dreams in the Mediterranean/levantine region for his country. Bad news for Egypt whichy yould have it their national interest to thwart Turkish ambition.

Libya has oilfields on both sides of the country. Egypt seems destined to become the power broker in deciding the disposal of the oil in eastern Libya while Turkey does the same with the oil of western Libya.
It's not the first time Arabs fight the Otomans...

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Milo
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Re: Egypt, Turkey send troops into Libya.

Post by Milo » Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:40 pm

It's like watching two sport teams you don't like: cheering for injuries!

neverfail
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Re: Egypt, Turkey send troops into Libya.

Post by neverfail » Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:34 am

Sertorio wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:11 pm
It's not the first time Arabs fight the Otomans...
Very true Sertorio. The Arabs, alas, have a past history of losing.

neverfail
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Re: Egypt, Turkey send troops into Libya.

Post by neverfail » Wed Jul 22, 2020 3:48 am

They may have to partition the country.

https://asiatimes.com/2020/07/chaos-in- ... dangerous/

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Alexis
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Re: Egypt, Turkey send troops into Libya.

Post by Alexis » Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:28 am

neverfail wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 3:48 am
They may have to partition the country.

https://asiatimes.com/2020/07/chaos-in- ... dangerous/
I wouldn't think about official partition, however a "political process" to solve the differences and produce a somewhat unified - if heavily federal - arrangement might be long indeed.

The alternative is war by Turkey and its GNA proxy to get control of Sirte - harbour for most of the country's oil wealth - and Al Jufrah - airbase for "Libyan" MiG-29 and Su-24. "Libyan" as in the pilots probably can't speak Arabic however like vodka, if you see what I mean :)

However, Egypt and France and Russia and the UAE have been quite clear in recent weeks that "the political process is the only solution", which is the polite version of "If you attack, you will lose". One of these countries attacked Turkish air defenses at the Al Watiya air base in Western Libya and devastated them with precision guided bombs, no warning & no losses - Turkey quite possibly still doesn't know who attacked them.

https://youtu.be/90YLkHyhm1I?t=92 :mrgreen:

As for Egypt, it has clearly broadcasted that an attack on Sirte or Al Jufrah would be crossing their red line, and the Egyptian parliament has authorized the president to send the army outside their borders if needed.

Recent noises by Turkish diplomacy give ground for optimism. It seems the Turkish president is preparing, wisely, to choose peace.

neverfail
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Re: Egypt, Turkey send troops into Libya.

Post by neverfail » Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:35 pm

Alexis wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:28 am
neverfail wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 3:48 am
They may have to partition the country.

https://asiatimes.com/2020/07/chaos-in- ... dangerous/
I wouldn't think about official partition, however a "political process" to solve the differences and produce a somewhat unified - if heavily federal - arrangement might be long indeed.

The alternative is war by Turkey and its GNA proxy to get control of Sirte - harbour for most of the country's oil wealth - and Al Jufrah - airbase for "Libyan" MiG-29 and Su-24. "Libyan" as in the pilots probably can't speak Arabic however like vodka, if you see what I mean :)
:lol: You might be "Russian" to the wrong conclusion here Alexis. How can you be sure those pilots don't "talk Turkey?" :D
However, Egypt and France and Russia and the UAE have been quite clear in recent weeks that "the political process is the only solution", which is the polite version of "If you attack, you will lose". One of these countries attacked Turkish air defenses at the Al Watiya air base in Western Libya and devastated them with precision guided bombs, no warning & no losses - Turkey quite possibly still doesn't know who attacked them.

https://youtu.be/90YLkHyhm1I?t=92 :mrgreen:

As for Egypt, it has clearly broadcasted that an attack on Sirte or Al Jufrah would be crossing their red line, and the Egyptian parliament has authorized the president to send the army outside their borders if needed.

Recent noises by Turkish diplomacy give ground for optimism. It seems the Turkish president is preparing, wisely, to choose peace.
The "Tripoli faction" is the side internationally recognised (as by the UN) as the "legetimate government" of Libya while it's actual grip on power now seems rather tenuous.

Turkey and Russia supporting opposing sides? I was under the impression that thesde days the two had a rather cozy diplomatic relationship - yet in Libya they are working against each other.

What does France hope to gain by teaming up with Egypt and Russia on the Benghazi side Alexis? It likely would not be oil - a commodity in oversupply whose global price is currently low and likely to remain so for a long time to come. No incentive therefore to corner the output of any major oil producing country.

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Sertorio
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Re: Egypt, Turkey send troops into Libya.

Post by Sertorio » Thu Jul 23, 2020 2:09 am

neverfail wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:35 pm

Turkey and Russia supporting opposing sides? I was under the impression that thesde days the two had a rather cozy diplomatic relationship - yet in Libya they are working against each other.
Turkey (Erdogan) is the biggest headache Russia (Putin) has. On the one hand Russia wants to encourage Turkey leaving NATO and stand up to the US, on the other hand Turkey is screwing most Russian policies in Syria, the ME in general, and now Libya. Thus Russia must handle Turkey with the utmost care while strongly desiring to kick their butt. Once Turkey out of NATO I believe Russia will be able to control it much better.

neverfail
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Re: Egypt, Turkey send troops into Libya.

Post by neverfail » Thu Jul 23, 2020 4:25 am

Sertorio wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 2:09 am
neverfail wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:35 pm

Turkey and Russia supporting opposing sides? I was under the impression that thesde days the two had a rather cozy diplomatic relationship - yet in Libya they are working against each other.
Turkey (Erdogan) is the biggest headache Russia (Putin) has. On the one hand Russia wants to encourage Turkey leaving NATO and stand up to the US, on the other hand Turkey is screwing most Russian policies in Syria, the ME in general, and now Libya. Thus Russia must handle Turkey with the utmost care while strongly desiring to kick their butt. Once Turkey out of NATO I believe Russia will be able to control it much better.
Thanks for that clarification Sertorio. That makes sense.

Apart from anything else, Russia has had its eye on the straits: respectively the Bosporus and Dardanelles leading from the Black Sea into the eastern Mediterranean since Czarist times. Control of these Straits by Ottoman Turkey, an ally of Germany during World War One kept badly needed allied aid reaching Russia arguably bringing forward the Russian revolution. Having Turkey as a NATO member during the Cold War placed Nato in the position where they could have closed the Straits to Soviet shipping should the need have arisen.

Should Putin entice Turkey out of NATO and into Russia's sphere he will have succeeded where both the Czars and the Soviet leadership failed. But surely Erdogan could not be that stupid?

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Milo
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Re: Egypt, Turkey send troops into Libya.

Post by Milo » Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:36 am

neverfail wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 4:25 am
Sertorio wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 2:09 am
neverfail wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:35 pm

Turkey and Russia supporting opposing sides? I was under the impression that thesde days the two had a rather cozy diplomatic relationship - yet in Libya they are working against each other.
Turkey (Erdogan) is the biggest headache Russia (Putin) has. On the one hand Russia wants to encourage Turkey leaving NATO and stand up to the US, on the other hand Turkey is screwing most Russian policies in Syria, the ME in general, and now Libya. Thus Russia must handle Turkey with the utmost care while strongly desiring to kick their butt. Once Turkey out of NATO I believe Russia will be able to control it much better.
Thanks for that clarification Sertorio. That makes sense.

Apart from anything else, Russia has had its eye on the straits: respectively the Bosporus and Dardanelles leading from the Black Sea into the eastern Mediterranean since Czarist times. Control of these Straits by Ottoman Turkey, an ally of Germany during World War One kept badly needed allied aid reaching Russia arguably bringing forward the Russian revolution. Having Turkey as a NATO member during the Cold War placed Nato in the position where they could have closed the Straits to Soviet shipping should the need have arisen.

Should Putin entice Turkey out of NATO and into Russia's sphere he will have succeeded where both the Czars and the Soviet leadership failed. But surely Erdogan could not be that stupid?
I do like the admission that leaving NATO places a state under Russian dominance!

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