India is being led to disaster by a myopic fool?

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neverfail
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India is being led to disaster by a myopic fool?

Post by neverfail » Wed Jun 17, 2020 6:29 am

By ignoring the lessons from the 1962 Sino-Indian war, Modi has set his country on the road to disaster

https://asiatimes.com/2020/06/india-pay ... -strategy/
As the article points out: in 1962 India relied too much on the phantom alliance that Nehru had build up with the Soviet Union's premier Nikita Khruschev. When war with China erupted over disputed borderland in the Himalaya range Khruschev was not willing to risk a war with China for the sake of pulling India's chestnuts out of the fire. It seems that India's Modi is now making the same mistake as Nehru though with a different set of phantom allies.

Will Australia or Japan, let alone the USA, be willing to risk war with China over some Himalaya borderlands being fought over by China and India? Not highly likely!

Modi's foreign policy dicking around (enticement without reciprocal obligation?) is leaving India bereft of friends and allies just as Nehru left India diplomatically isolated back in the early 1960's.

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cassowary
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Re: India is being led to disaster by a myopic fool?

Post by cassowary » Thu Jun 18, 2020 2:12 am

I think the big picture is like this. To understand Xi, look at Chinese history and not "Das Kapital."

See the Utube video which sums up Chinese history in 1 minute.



The key point to take away is that whenever China was strong it expanded. Whenever it was weak, it shrank or even disintegrated into warring states. Now Xi feels that China is strong and wants to expand. He also needs to buttress CCP rule. The only reason the Chinese people tolerate the CCP is because it delivered the goods ie improved people's standard of living.

But now China is having its first recession in decades. Xi knows his people will get restless. So he has to appeal to nationalism. To many Chinese who knows their history, they understood that national strength = expansion. Xi is hoping that national pride will serve as justification for continued CCP rule because its top leaders want power, money and girls.

That's why it is picking fights everywhere - India (over its borders), Japan (Senkaku/Diaoyu), Taiwan, many SE Asian cuntries (disputed islands and S China sea.

This gives Trump and the US an opportunity to gain India as an ally. Relations between the two countries are the best in decades. This is another of Trump's achievements. The strategy should be to get companies to shift their supply chains out of China. A few will go back to the US but most will go elsewhere - including India. So, an FTA with India would help.
The Imp :D

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Sertorio
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Re: India is being led to disaster by a myopic fool?

Post by Sertorio » Thu Jun 18, 2020 2:36 am

cassowary wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 2:12 am
I think the big picture is like this. To understand Xi, look at Chinese history and not "Das Kapital."

See the Utube video which sums up Chinese history in 1 minute.



The key point to take away is that whenever China was strong it expanded. Whenever it was weak, it shrank or even disintegrated into warring states. Now Xi feels that China is strong and wants to expand. He also needs to buttress CCP rule. The only reason the Chinese people tolerate the CCP is because it delivered the goods ie improved people's standard of living.

But now China is having its first recession in decades. Xi knows his people will get restless. So he has to appeal to nationalism. To many Chinese who knows their history, they understood that national strength = expansion. Xi is hoping that national pride will serve as justification for continued CCP rule because its top leaders want power, money and girls.

That's why it is picking fights everywhere - India (over its borders), Japan (Senkaku/Diaoyu), Taiwan, many SE Asian cuntries (disputed islands and S China sea.

This gives Trump and the US an opportunity to gain India as an ally. Relations between the two countries are the best in decades. This is another of Trump's achievements. The strategy should be to get companies to shift their supply chains out of China. A few will go back to the US but most will go elsewhere - including India. So, an FTA with India would help.
Expanding how and where to?
The only reason the Chinese people tolerate the CCP is because it delivered the goods ie improved people's standard of living.
Isn't that the reason why any people tolerate any government?...

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Re: India is being led to disaster by a myopic fool?

Post by neverfail » Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:18 am

cassowary wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 2:12 am


The key point to take away is that whenever China was strong it expanded. Whenever it was weak, it shrank or even disintegrated into warring states. Now Xi feels that China is strong and wants to expand. He also needs to buttress CCP rule. The only reason the Chinese people tolerate the CCP is because it delivered the goods ie improved people's standard of living.

But now China is having its first recession in decades. Xi knows his people will get restless. So he has to appeal to nationalism. To many Chinese who knows their history, they understood that national strength = expansion. Xi is hoping that national pride will serve as justification for continued CCP rule because its top leaders want power, money and girls.

That's why it is picking fights everywhere - India (over its borders), Japan (Senkaku/Diaoyu), Taiwan, many SE Asian cuntries (disputed islands and S China sea.

This gives Trump and the US an opportunity to gain India as an ally. Relations between the two countries are the best in decades. This is another of Trump's achievements. The strategy should be to get companies to shift their supply chains out of China. A few will go back to the US but most will go elsewhere - including India. So, an FTA with India would help.
Thanks Cass. I welcome your imput.

I agree. With the PRC economy going backwards Xi and colleagues really have nothing to fall back to other than "glory of"empire" expansionism stuff. Xi might have misred Chinese history somewhat though. Whenever China has expanded in the past it was able to do so arguably because their was nothing its approximate size nearby to oppose it. Conversely, whenever China has been weak and divided it has been due to its own internal decay and mismanagement - often a bi-product of its earlier successes (or rather, of the smugness that too often grows from too much unwonted success).

This raises the question in my mind: what would the USA gain by having India for an ally?

Despite having a small thermonuclear arsonel of its own (for last resort use against PAKISTAN; not to fend off the PRC which it cannot match in military might): I see India as being geostrategically, hopelesly compromised. China occupies the high ground immediately to India's north (the Tibet Plateau and Himalaya heights) while, just as dangerous to India's west is Pakistan - an ally of the PRC. If India were to become embrioled in a long conventional border war with China do you believe that Pakistan would not make a grab for Indian Kashmir while India was in its time of peril?

India has so fumbled its diplomacy since independence that it does not have a single friend in the entire region where it is geographically domesciled.

About the only thing India has going for it in defence strategy is a gift of nature. The high altitude of the Himalaya passes and if the Tibet plateau behind it would make it devilishly hard logistically for the PRC to send an army down into northern India. For the same reason India would find it near impossible to overrun Tibet. Which is no doubt the reason why India has never been part of any Chinese empire of the past (or vice-versa).

Despite its demographic size I see India as inherently a weak country. Two other points going against it is that in trhe past it has demonstrated itself to be no one's firm ally and it is led by myopic fools.
.........................................................................................................................

...and speaking of myopic fools and fickle allies: there is the problem of Mr. America First failing to provide effective leadership even for the United states. How could such a moral pygmy provide credible leadership for a multi-national alliance system in the Asia-Pacific region: with or without India included?

Obama in his day tried to build an economic'military pact including these same (Asia rim) countires (the trans-Pacific Partnership) for the purpose of containing China and had Trump wanted to he could have taken this up where Obama left off and by now brought it into being. Instead he scuppered it early in his first year in office on what I saw as a very slim pretext. I have read that Trump's reason (as distinct from his cover story) for so doing was that he loathed and detested Obama personally so much that upon assuming office the twit wanted to tear down all of Obama's acheivements out of sheer petty-spite. Never mind that some of those policy acheivements like the TPP might have had merit.

Please, don't get me started on Trump!
Last edited by neverfail on Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:21 am, edited 1 time in total.

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cassowary
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Re: India is being led to disaster by a myopic fool?

Post by cassowary » Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:20 am

Sertorio wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 2:36 am
cassowary wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 2:12 am
I think the big picture is like this. To understand Xi, look at Chinese history and not "Das Kapital."

See the Utube video which sums up Chinese history in 1 minute.



The key point to take away is that whenever China was strong it expanded. Whenever it was weak, it shrank or even disintegrated into warring states. Now Xi feels that China is strong and wants to expand. He also needs to buttress CCP rule. The only reason the Chinese people tolerate the CCP is because it delivered the goods ie improved people's standard of living.

But now China is having its first recession in decades. Xi knows his people will get restless. So he has to appeal to nationalism. To many Chinese who knows their history, they understood that national strength = expansion. Xi is hoping that national pride will serve as justification for continued CCP rule because its top leaders want power, money and girls.

That's why it is picking fights everywhere - India (over its borders), Japan (Senkaku/Diaoyu), Taiwan, many SE Asian cuntries (disputed islands and S China sea.

This gives Trump and the US an opportunity to gain India as an ally. Relations between the two countries are the best in decades. This is another of Trump's achievements. The strategy should be to get companies to shift their supply chains out of China. A few will go back to the US but most will go elsewhere - including India. So, an FTA with India would help.
Expanding how and where to?
The only reason the Chinese people tolerate the CCP is because it delivered the goods ie improved people's standard of living.
Isn't that the reason why any people tolerate any government?...
In a democracy, people tolerate a government because the majority voted for them and so is regarded as legitimate. A government not chosen by people needs to justify why they should rule over the people. In the old days, the leaders attributed the right to rule to God.

In China, it was called the "Mandate of Heaven". In Europe it was called, the "Divine Right of Kings." It does not matter what is the justification is, so long as people accept it. If they don't, you get instability.

People can accept so many different systems of government. The weirdest one was the one in Easter Island. I call it the "Eggocracy". Different tribes fought over the island. Some clever guy found a way to choose a ruler. The chieftain who found the egg of the tern first wins the right to rule for a year. It required a grueling race. The contestants had to run down a steep rocky slope. Then swim across shark infested waters to a neighboring island.

Then they climbed to the top where the birds came to nest every year. They must retrieve an egg and then go back all the same way to the starting point with an unbroken egg. The winner gets to be the ruler, called the bird-man, for one year. If the chief is too old to do the race, he can appoint someone else from his tribe to compete for him.

The people accepted this instead of going to war. So long as people accept any system, it is legitimate.
The Imp :D

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cassowary
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Re: India is being led to disaster by a myopic fool?

Post by cassowary » Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:32 am

neverfail wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:18 am
Despite its demographic size I see India as inherently a weak country. Two other points going against it is that in trhe past it has demonstrated itself to be no one's firm ally and it is led by myopic fools.
India is the best long term hope for democracy's survival. While democracy has hobbled India's development, it also provides stability which a dictatorship like China does not have. In the long run, India will move closer to the US. Both will be driven together by a common enemy. To his credit, Trump has made a move in this direction. oBUMa did nothing.

India has Agni nuclear loaded missiles which can reach China. So don't underestimate India.
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Sertorio
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Re: India is being led to disaster by a myopic fool?

Post by Sertorio » Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:33 am

neverfail wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:18 am
With the PRC economy going backwards Xi and colleagues really have nothing to fall back to other than "glory of"empire" expansionism stuff.
There is a tendency in this forum for underestimating the intellectual level of the leaders of Russia and China. Maybe your vision of Xi is being influenced by your Anglo heritage, seeing that Britain was indeed obsessed by the "glory of empire". I very much doubt that Xi has the same concerns. I'm sure he is more moved by the wish to put an end to the American empire than building an empire of his own.

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Re: India is being led to disaster by a myopic fool?

Post by cassowary » Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:55 am

Sertorio wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:33 am
neverfail wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:18 am
With the PRC economy going backwards Xi and colleagues really have nothing to fall back to other than "glory of"empire" expansionism stuff.
There is a tendency in this forum for underestimating the intellectual level of the leaders of Russia and China. Maybe your vision of Xi is being influenced by your Anglo heritage, seeing that Britain was indeed obsessed by the "glory of empire". I very much doubt that Xi has the same concerns. I'm sure he is more moved by the wish to put an end to the American empire than building an empire of his own.
Hahaha. See China's changing borders. All nations are influenced by their history.
The Imp :D

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Sertorio
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Re: India is being led to disaster by a myopic fool?

Post by Sertorio » Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:07 am

cassowary wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:55 am
Sertorio wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:33 am
neverfail wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:18 am
With the PRC economy going backwards Xi and colleagues really have nothing to fall back to other than "glory of"empire" expansionism stuff.
There is a tendency in this forum for underestimating the intellectual level of the leaders of Russia and China. Maybe your vision of Xi is being influenced by your Anglo heritage, seeing that Britain was indeed obsessed by the "glory of empire". I very much doubt that Xi has the same concerns. I'm sure he is more moved by the wish to put an end to the American empire than building an empire of his own.
Hahaha. See China's changing borders. All nations are influenced by their history.
Except for the small area in dispute with India, which borders is China planning to change?...Meanwhile the US is hoping to gobble Greenland...

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Re: India is being led to disaster by a myopic fool?

Post by neverfail » Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:23 am

Sertorio wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:07 am
cassowary wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:55 am
Sertorio wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:33 am
neverfail wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:18 am
With the PRC economy going backwards Xi and colleagues really have nothing to fall back to other than "glory of"empire" expansionism stuff.
There is a tendency in this forum for underestimating the intellectual level of the leaders of Russia and China. Maybe your vision of Xi is being influenced by your Anglo heritage, seeing that Britain was indeed obsessed by the "glory of empire". I very much doubt that Xi has the same concerns. I'm sure he is more moved by the wish to put an end to the American empire than building an empire of his own.
Hahaha. See China's changing borders. All nations are influenced by their history.
Except for the small area in dispute with India, which borders is China planning to change?...Meanwhile the US is hoping to gobble Greenland...
It is true Sertorio, just as Cassowary points out. For the past two and one half millenia China's rulers, whenever leading young and newly energised dynastic imperial states (the quintessimal Chinese form of government and social structure) have consistently "pushed the envelope" expanding their territorial domains and numbers of subjects wherever topography and lack of effective opposition/resistence permitted expansion. What is Xi and colleagues doing now (South China Sea annexation etc) except following in that very tradition?

I for one have no doubt about the nous of either Xi or Putin: both highly intellegent men and careful players. But who made the silly suggestion that highly icapable leaders of nations and empires are always destined to make our world a better place?

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