The US is tearing itself apart.....

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Doc
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Re: "lift your game!"

Post by Doc » Thu Jun 11, 2020 4:12 am

Sertorio wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:06 am
Doc wrote:
Wed Jun 10, 2020 4:29 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:25 pm
neverfail wrote:
Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:02 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Wed Jun 10, 2020 10:02 am
This may give you an idea of some of the ways the US is tearing itself apart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/failed-state-walking
Excerpt from link/disclaimer from author:

Authored by Chris Hamilton via Econimica blog,

I love America. It's the land of my birth, my education (Go Beav's), my children's births, and where I live and will eventually die. I did spend about five years living in Europe and Asia and loved it...but my home is and will be the vast expanse of the Western US.

So, when I'm critical of the US, it's not because I want it to fail or fall into chaos...quite the opposite. I believe that a patriot and citizens role is to critically analyze and constructively push forward. And this means critiquing the direction of its politics, economy, society, and the state of its soul.
I am not an American myself and some have accused me of "trolling" because my posts seem so unrelentingly critical of the USA and in particular of its politics. No! I get no delight out of witnessing the low, apparently degenerate, state into which this country has sunk. My posts reflect my fury that a key ally of my country could allow itself to sink so low combined with an exaspperrated cry to the effect "for god's sake America, lift your game!"
Neverfail,
While the US has a large number of very intelligent, very knowledgeable, very decent people, the fact is that they are but a small minority of the 350 million people living in the US. The vast majority is truly underdeveloped and poorly educated, prone to be violent both at home and abroad, and that's why one should not accept the US as an ally. If there are threats in the world then the answer is for the countries at risk to build regional alliances capable of handling those threats without having to rely on the US. And leave the US alone until a majority of their people are capable of having civilized intercourse with the rest of us.
Some say the EU is mostly made up of PIIGS
"Underdeveloped and poorly educated"... You have just proven my point, thanks... :twisted:
Oh the one that insists that Russia Today is a real source. No, you have just once again expounded on your own bigotry.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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lzzrdgrrl
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Re: The US is tearing itself apart.....

Post by lzzrdgrrl » Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:41 pm

Economic recovery is unlikely where the animal spirits that drives the human behaviour of the consumer is subject to recurrent and brutal beatings. Over and over again:

Double whammy set to reverse US stock gains
Dow futures tumble as market prices in possible viral second wave and structural downshift in consumer spending
American consumer behavior is notoriously hard to forecast, but there is a strong possibility that all of the stimulus packages and all the king’s horses and king’s men won’t be able to put the consumer economy back together again.
https://asiatimes.com/2020/06/double-wh ... ock-gains/
I have a certain notoriety among the lesser gods........

neverfail
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Re: The US is tearing itself apart.....

Post by neverfail » Thu Jun 11, 2020 3:51 pm

lzzrdgrrl wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:41 pm
Economic recovery is unlikely where the animal spirits that drives the human behaviour of the consumer is subject to recurrent and brutal beatings. Over and over again:

Double whammy set to reverse US stock gains
Dow futures tumble as market prices in possible viral second wave and structural downshift in consumer spending
American consumer behavior is notoriously hard to forecast, but there is a strong possibility that all of the stimulus packages and all the king’s horses and king’s men won’t be able to put the consumer economy back together again.
https://asiatimes.com/2020/06/double-wh ... ock-gains/
What can you expect? Wages have been stagnant for years even as costs have gone up. Many US consumers, I believe, have been trying to survive on consumer debt. Now with so many unemployed you are bound to see a permanent drop in consumer spending.

Depression is belt-tightening time.

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Sertorio
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Re: The US is tearing itself apart.....

Post by Sertorio » Wed Jun 17, 2020 9:00 am

A Crash in the Dollar Is Coming
The world is having serious doubts about the once widely accepted presumption of American exceptionalism.
By Stephen Roach - June 8, 2020
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... f=ZtdQlmKR

The era of the U.S. dollar’s “exorbitant privilege” as the world’s primary reserve currency is coming to an end. Then French Finance Minister Valery Giscard d’Estaing coined that phrase in the 1960s largely out of frustration, bemoaning a U.S. that drew freely on the rest of the world to support its over-extended standard of living. For almost 60 years, the world complained but did nothing about it. Those days are over.

Already stressed by the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. living standards are about to be squeezed as never before. At the same time, the world is having serious doubts about the once widely accepted presumption of American exceptionalism. Currencies set the equilibrium between these two forces — domestic economic fundamentals and foreign perceptions of a nation’s strength or weakness. The balance is shifting, and a crash in the dollar could well be in the offing.

The seeds of this problem were sown by a profound shortfall in domestic U.S. savings that was glaringly apparent before the pandemic. In the first quarter of 2020, net national saving, which includes depreciation-adjusted saving of households, businesses and the government sector, fell to 1.4% of national income. This was the lowest reading since late 2011 and one-fifth the average of 7% from 1960 to 2005.

Lacking in domestic saving, and wanting to invest and grow, the U.S. has taken great advantage of the dollar’s role as the world’s primary reserve currency and drawn heavily on surplus savings from abroad to square the circle. But not without a price. In order to attract foreign capital, the U.S. has run a deficit in its current account — which is the broadest measure of trade because it includes investment — every year since 1982.

Covid-19, and the economic crisis it has triggered, is stretching this tension between saving and the current-account to the breaking point. The culprit: exploding government budget deficits. According to the bi-partisan Congressional Budget Office, the federal budget deficit is likely to soar to a peacetime record of 17.9% of gross domestic product in 2020 before hopefully receding to 9.8% in 2021.

A significant portion of the fiscal support has initially been saved by fear-driven, unemployed U.S. workers. That tends to ameliorate some of the immediate pressures on overall national saving. However, monthly Treasury Department data show that the crisis-related expansion of the federal deficit has far outstripped the fear-driven surge in personal saving, with the April deficit 5.7 times the shortfall in the first quarter, or fully 50% larger than the April increment of personal saving.

In other words, intense downward pressure is now building on already sharply depressed domestic saving. Compared with the situation during the global financial crisis, when domestic saving was a net negative for the first time on record, averaging -1.8% of national income from the third quarter of 2008 to the second quarter of 2010, a much sharper drop into negative territory is now likely, possibly plunging into the unheard of -5% to -10% zone.

And that is where the dollar will come into play. For the moment, the greenback is strong, benefiting from typical safe-haven demand long evident during periods of crisis. Against a broad cross-section of U.S. trading partners, the dollar was up almost 7% over the January to April period in inflation-adjusted, trade-weighted terms to a level that stands fully 33% above its July 2011 low, Bank for International Settlements data show. (Preliminary data hint at a fractional slippage in early June.)

But the coming collapse in saving points to a sharp widening of the current-account deficit, likely taking it well beyond the prior record of -6.3% of GDP that it reached in late 2005. Reserve currency or not, the dollar will not be spared under these circumstances. The key question is what will spark the decline?

Look no further than the Trump administration. Protectionist trade policies, withdrawal from the architectural pillars of globalization such as the Paris Agreement on Climate, Trans-Pacific Partnership, World Health Organization and traditional Atlantic alliances, gross mismanagement of Covid-19 response, together with wrenching social turmoil not seen since the late 1960s, are all painfully visible manifestations of America’s sharply diminished global leadership.

As the economic crisis starts to stabilize, hopefully later this year or in early 2021, that realization should hit home just as domestic saving plunges. The dollar could easily test its July 2011 lows, weakening by as much as 35% in broad trade-weighted, inflation-adjusted terms.

The coming collapse in the dollar will have three key implications: It will be inflationary — a welcome short-term buffer against deflation but, in conjunction with what is likely to be a weak post-Covid economic recovery, yet another reason to worry about an onset of stagflation — the tough combination of weak economic growth and rising inflation that wreaks havoc on financial markets.

Moreover, to the extent a weaker dollar is symptomatic of an exploding current-account deficit, look for a sharp widening of America’s trade deficit. Protectionist pressures on the largest piece of the country’s multilateral shortfall with 102 nations – namely the Chinese bilateral imbalance — will backfire and divert trade to other, higher-cost, producers, effectively taxing beleaguered U.S. consumers.

Finally, in the face of Washington’s poorly timed wish for financial decoupling from China, who will fund the saving deficit of a nation that has finally lost its exorbitant privilege? And what terms — namely interest rates — will that funding now require?

Like Covid-19 and racial turmoil, the fall of the almighty dollar will cast global economic leadership of a saving-short U.S. economy in a very harsh light. Exorbitant privilege needs to be earned, not taken for granted.
This is not Russian propaganda, it is an article published on Bloomberg. Ignore it at your own risk.

neverfail
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Re: The US is tearing itself apart.....

Post by neverfail » Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:53 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Wed Jun 17, 2020 9:00 am
This is not Russian propaganda, it is an article published on Bloomberg. Ignore it at your own risk.
A doomsday forecast of something that may or may not happen soon.

With that disclaimer in place: I would like to own up that I have been arguing for at least the past 2 decades that, based upon economic performance, the US has not been earning its keep (for pretty much the same reasons given in the Bloomberg report.)

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Sertorio
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Re: The US is tearing itself apart.....

Post by Sertorio » Thu Jun 18, 2020 2:32 am

neverfail wrote:
Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:53 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Wed Jun 17, 2020 9:00 am
This is not Russian propaganda, it is an article published on Bloomberg. Ignore it at your own risk.
A doomsday forecast of something that may or may not happen soon.

With that disclaimer in place: I would like to own up that I have been arguing for at least the past 2 decades that, based upon economic performance, the US has not been earning its keep (for pretty much the same reasons given in the Bloomberg report.)
The important thing for us - non-Americans - is: either we do nothing and may share the fate of the US, or we distance ourselves now from the US and may create the conditions to overcome the disaster.

neverfail
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Re: The US is tearing itself apart.....

Post by neverfail » Thu Jun 18, 2020 1:29 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 2:32 am

The important thing for us - non-Americans - is: either we do nothing and may share the fate of the US, or we distance ourselves now from the US and may create the conditions to overcome the disaster.
The trouble with that is that we live in an interconnected world. What one does affects the others.

Independently of the USA others, including the EU, the UK, Japan, China and India (not to mention Putin's Russia): all had economic weaknesses that (but for the grace of God) should have damned any one of them or all to prolonged economic recession.

The entire global economy is structurally unsound. Trying to run away and hide from the consequences is a delusion.

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Re: The US is tearing itself apart.....

Post by lzzrdgrrl » Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:53 pm



No...... not that Pippa.....'>.......
I have a certain notoriety among the lesser gods........

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Doc
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Re: The US is tearing itself apart.....

Post by Doc » Fri Jun 19, 2020 5:37 am

Sertorio wrote:
Wed Jun 17, 2020 9:00 am
A Crash in the Dollar Is Coming
The world is having serious doubts about the once widely accepted presumption of American exceptionalism.
By Stephen Roach - June 8, 2020
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... f=ZtdQlmKR

The era of the U.S. dollar’s “exorbitant privilege” as the world’s primary reserve currency is coming to an end. Then French Finance Minister Valery Giscard d’Estaing coined that phrase in the 1960s largely out of frustration, bemoaning a U.S. that drew freely on the rest of the world to support its over-extended standard of living. For almost 60 years, the world complained but did nothing about it. Those days are over.

Already stressed by the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. living standards are about to be squeezed as never before. At the same time, the world is having serious doubts about the once widely accepted presumption of American exceptionalism. Currencies set the equilibrium between these two forces — domestic economic fundamentals and foreign perceptions of a nation’s strength or weakness. The balance is shifting, and a crash in the dollar could well be in the offing.

The seeds of this problem were sown by a profound shortfall in domestic U.S. savings that was glaringly apparent before the pandemic. In the first quarter of 2020, net national saving, which includes depreciation-adjusted saving of households, businesses and the government sector, fell to 1.4% of national income. This was the lowest reading since late 2011 and one-fifth the average of 7% from 1960 to 2005.

Lacking in domestic saving, and wanting to invest and grow, the U.S. has taken great advantage of the dollar’s role as the world’s primary reserve currency and drawn heavily on surplus savings from abroad to square the circle. But not without a price. In order to attract foreign capital, the U.S. has run a deficit in its current account — which is the broadest measure of trade because it includes investment — every year since 1982.

Covid-19, and the economic crisis it has triggered, is stretching this tension between saving and the current-account to the breaking point. The culprit: exploding government budget deficits. According to the bi-partisan Congressional Budget Office, the federal budget deficit is likely to soar to a peacetime record of 17.9% of gross domestic product in 2020 before hopefully receding to 9.8% in 2021.

A significant portion of the fiscal support has initially been saved by fear-driven, unemployed U.S. workers. That tends to ameliorate some of the immediate pressures on overall national saving. However, monthly Treasury Department data show that the crisis-related expansion of the federal deficit has far outstripped the fear-driven surge in personal saving, with the April deficit 5.7 times the shortfall in the first quarter, or fully 50% larger than the April increment of personal saving.

In other words, intense downward pressure is now building on already sharply depressed domestic saving. Compared with the situation during the global financial crisis, when domestic saving was a net negative for the first time on record, averaging -1.8% of national income from the third quarter of 2008 to the second quarter of 2010, a much sharper drop into negative territory is now likely, possibly plunging into the unheard of -5% to -10% zone.

And that is where the dollar will come into play. For the moment, the greenback is strong, benefiting from typical safe-haven demand long evident during periods of crisis. Against a broad cross-section of U.S. trading partners, the dollar was up almost 7% over the January to April period in inflation-adjusted, trade-weighted terms to a level that stands fully 33% above its July 2011 low, Bank for International Settlements data show. (Preliminary data hint at a fractional slippage in early June.)

But the coming collapse in saving points to a sharp widening of the current-account deficit, likely taking it well beyond the prior record of -6.3% of GDP that it reached in late 2005. Reserve currency or not, the dollar will not be spared under these circumstances. The key question is what will spark the decline?

Look no further than the Trump administration. Protectionist trade policies, withdrawal from the architectural pillars of globalization such as the Paris Agreement on Climate, Trans-Pacific Partnership, World Health Organization and traditional Atlantic alliances, gross mismanagement of Covid-19 response, together with wrenching social turmoil not seen since the late 1960s, are all painfully visible manifestations of America’s sharply diminished global leadership.

As the economic crisis starts to stabilize, hopefully later this year or in early 2021, that realization should hit home just as domestic saving plunges. The dollar could easily test its July 2011 lows, weakening by as much as 35% in broad trade-weighted, inflation-adjusted terms.

The coming collapse in the dollar will have three key implications: It will be inflationary — a welcome short-term buffer against deflation but, in conjunction with what is likely to be a weak post-Covid economic recovery, yet another reason to worry about an onset of stagflation — the tough combination of weak economic growth and rising inflation that wreaks havoc on financial markets.

Moreover, to the extent a weaker dollar is symptomatic of an exploding current-account deficit, look for a sharp widening of America’s trade deficit. Protectionist pressures on the largest piece of the country’s multilateral shortfall with 102 nations – namely the Chinese bilateral imbalance — will backfire and divert trade to other, higher-cost, producers, effectively taxing beleaguered U.S. consumers.

Finally, in the face of Washington’s poorly timed wish for financial decoupling from China, who will fund the saving deficit of a nation that has finally lost its exorbitant privilege? And what terms — namely interest rates — will that funding now require?

Like Covid-19 and racial turmoil, the fall of the almighty dollar will cast global economic leadership of a saving-short U.S. economy in a very harsh light. Exorbitant privilege needs to be earned, not taken for granted.
This is not Russian propaganda, it is an article published on Bloomberg. Ignore it at your own risk.
I agree with that. It is CCP propaganda.
https://nypost.com/2020/02/27/bloomberg ... democracy/

Bloomberg: Xi isn’t a dictator because China doesn’t want democracy


IT is well known that Micheal Bloomberg is beholden to the Chinese Communist party as the CCP threaten to wreck Bloomberg's most valuable product.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

neverfail
Posts: 5446
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2016 3:47 am
Location: Singapore

Re: The US is tearing itself apart.....

Post by neverfail » Fri Jun 19, 2020 6:32 pm

Doc wrote:
Fri Jun 19, 2020 5:37 am

I agree with that. It is CCP propaganda.
https://nypost.com/2020/02/27/bloomberg ... democracy/

Bloomberg: Xi isn’t a dictator because China doesn’t want democracy


IT is well known that Micheal Bloomberg is beholden to the Chinese Communist party as the CCP threaten to wreck Bloomberg's most valuable product.
It is NOT propaganda, either Russian or CCP, but a timely warning that the US economy is in dire peril.

Was the Biblical prophet Jeremiah anti-Jewish because he (correctly) forecast the coming fall of Jerusalem to the Chaldian host? No! He, not his detractors, was arguably the real patriot of his time for attempting to pass on an unpopular warning (divinely inspired) to his fellow-Jewry which these then ignored: inviting their own destruction.

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