China gets nasty with Australia.

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neverfail
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Re: "Death by a thousand cuts" for Australia?

Post by neverfail » Wed May 13, 2020 7:03 pm

Milo wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 5:28 pm

Someday, a PRC oligarch may be arrested and imprisoned on your soil according to your law and Australia will be boycotted by China, and possibly other countries by then, to try to force you to abandon your rule of law. What will you do then?
A hypothetical situation that I would be reluctant to dismiss as a straw man as it could very well happen. We would need to wait and see if and when it happens. Nevertheless an inappropriate comparison as our current situation is not like that. Instead of having arrested a CCP bigwig on our soil we (or rather our political establishment - our Opposition supports the government in this quest) we are attempting to impel a foreign power with quite an alien political culture to comply with OUR standards of transparency and probity.
Milo wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 5:28 pm
What you might do is seek fellowship with other like minded countries, so you do not have to go it alone in standing for justice and freedom.
MILO; similtaneously with building mutually benefical trade and other ties with our Asian neighbours to our northwest (among whom the PRC is the most important but not the only one by any means) we have indeed been cultivating ties with "other like minded countries (by which I can safely assume to mean "Western" countries)" all along. Better to have two strings to our bow than just one. The trouble with our Prime Minister (government?) is that he (they?) did not bother to sound out like minded countries (like yours) first to see whether they likewise had an interest in joining forces with Australia in pursuing China for accountability in this matter. We are, after all, a lesser power than the PRC and we need allies and collaborators overseas in order to get anywhere in a project like this. I feel that our government has made a bad tactical blunder in failing to do this.
Milo wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 5:28 pm
Except you may find their aren't any, because they all 'sorted things out'. No doubt you will be counselled to be diplomatic and maintain favourable trade balances, and it's just this one time!
:lol:

Oh Milo: you are a true Canadian. You cling to the myth that the successful conduct of foreign policy has something to do with being in a permanent state of moral rectitude. :D

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cassowary
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Re: "Death by a thousand cuts" for Australia?

Post by cassowary » Wed May 13, 2020 8:09 pm

Milo wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 5:28 pm
neverfail wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 4:15 pm
Milo wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 3:10 pm


But how much do we give up to trade with China?

And will we ever give up enough?
I really can't answer those questions Milo.

In the case of your country it possibly does not matter much as Canada's trade with the PRC I believe only accounts for around 5% of it's total world trade - and Canada (like the USA) runs unfavourable trade balances with that country. But with around one third of our external trade being with this one country and that trade balance is favourable to us. We have a much bigger stake and with that more to lose.

On another plane the PRC government still claims that the recent boycotts are NOT punishment inflicted on Australia but due to technical breaches of the rules. Meantime the Austrlaian trade minister is treating it the same way: something to sort out via diplomatic negotiatons.

Meantime, PM Scvott Morrison has been uncharacteristically silent on the PRC trade boycotts. I suspect that his cabinet colleagues may have served him notice: "shut up and give us a chance to sort this out with Beijing."
Someday, a PRC oligarch may be arrested and imprisoned on your soil according to your law and Australia will be boycotted by China, and possibly other countries by then, to try to force you to abandon your rule of law. What will you do then?

What you might do is seek fellowship with other like minded countries, so you do not have to go it alone in standing for justice and freedom. Except you may find their aren't any, because they all 'sorted things out'. No doubt you will be counselled to be diplomatic and maintain favourable trade balances, and it's just this one time!

Until it happens again, and you will be told, you did it before, what's the big deal?
Exactly. Good point Milo. For some time I have been warning about the rise of China but till recently, neverfail didn’t take it seriously. He even said it was their turn or something like that. China’s rise will not be threatening if it is a democracy like Taiwan 🇹🇼 or even one like Singapore.

So let’s pray for the downfall of the CCP. Of course some leftists on this forum find that an unpleasant thought.
The Imp :D

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Milo
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Re: "Death by a thousand cuts" for Australia?

Post by Milo » Wed May 13, 2020 9:32 pm

neverfail wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 7:03 pm
Milo wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 5:28 pm

Someday, a PRC oligarch may be arrested and imprisoned on your soil according to your law and Australia will be boycotted by China, and possibly other countries by then, to try to force you to abandon your rule of law. What will you do then?
A hypothetical situation that I would be reluctant to dismiss as a straw man as it could very well happen. We would need to wait and see if and when it happens. Nevertheless an inappropriate comparison as our current situation is not like that. Instead of having arrested a CCP bigwig on our soil we (or rather our political establishment - our Opposition supports the government in this quest) we are attempting to impel a foreign power with quite an alien political culture to comply with OUR standards of transparency and probity.
Milo wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 5:28 pm
What you might do is seek fellowship with other like minded countries, so you do not have to go it alone in standing for justice and freedom.
MILO; similtaneously with building mutually benefical trade and other ties with our Asian neighbours to our northwest (among whom the PRC is the most important but not the only one by any means) we have indeed been cultivating ties with "other like minded countries (by which I can safely assume to mean "Western" countries)" all along. Better to have two strings to our bow than just one. The trouble with our Prime Minister (government?) is that he (they?) did not bother to sound out like minded countries (like yours) first to see whether they likewise had an interest in joining forces with Australia in pursuing China for accountability in this matter. We are, after all, a lesser power than the PRC and we need allies and collaborators overseas in order to get anywhere in a project like this. I feel that our government has made a bad tactical blunder in failing to do this.
Milo wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 5:28 pm
Except you may find their aren't any, because they all 'sorted things out'. No doubt you will be counselled to be diplomatic and maintain favourable trade balances, and it's just this one time!
:lol:

Oh Milo: you are a true Canadian. You cling to the myth that the successful conduct of foreign policy has something to do with being in a permanent state of moral rectitude. :D
The situation is NOT hypothetical, it has happened, just not to your country.

As a small business owner, I find moral rectitude to be profitable, as dishonest customers always rip you off in the end, no matter how profitable they are in the beginning.

neverfail
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Re: "Death by a thousand cuts" for Australia?

Post by neverfail » Wed May 13, 2020 10:45 pm

Milo wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 9:32 pm

The situation is NOT hypothetical, it has happened, just not to your country.
I had a feeling that you were thinking about the arrest of that Huawei executave at Vancouver. What happened to her?
Milo wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 9:32 pm
As a small business owner, I find moral rectitude to be profitable, as dishonest customers always rip you off in the end, no matter how profitable they are in the beginning.
That's at the level of small business (I thought that you worked in a legal office Milo) but I agree broadly a good rule. The problem is that at the international level there is not a wide choice of such countries to choose from.

Australia does not have a lot of choice. Our trade balances with our big Western trading partners (like the EU and the USA) are in permanent defecit while our trade balances with all of our major Asian trading partners are in surplus. Trade goes where the demand is.

Possibly because we have little in the way of "intellectual property" in our own right for the PRC to pirate; we have so far found the PRC a reasonably honourable customer to deal with. It is only since that new guy Xi Jinping took over as absolute ruler and defacto Emperor of the Middle Kingdom that trouble has arisen. Before his rise to power the PRC was apparently content to make itself richer and its people more prosperous via international commerce and trade ("to be rich is glorious" - Deng). But now the emphasis has shifted to amassing power globally - and that leads to conflicts of interest.

neverfail
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Re: "Death by a thousand cuts" for Australia?

Post by neverfail » Wed May 13, 2020 10:54 pm

cassowary wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 8:09 pm

For some time I have been warning about the rise of China but till recently, neverfail didn’t take it seriously. He even said it was their turn or something like that. China’s rise will not be threatening if it is a democracy like Taiwan 🇹🇼 or even one like Singapore.

Please don't congratulate yourself too lavishly Cass as I have been aware all along that all was not marvelous within the Peoples Republic. It is just that I felt the need to challenge some of your more outrageous assertions.

China a democracy? you might as well wish for the moon. Even if it were China would still have the same set of national interests and the same craving for regional hegemony and global power and influence. Or are you unaware that even democracies, when they ammass too much power, can be warmongering too?

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Sertorio
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Re: "Death by a thousand cuts" for Australia?

Post by Sertorio » Thu May 14, 2020 3:08 am

Milo wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 5:28 pm

Someday, a PRC oligarch may be arrested and imprisoned on your soil according to your law and Australia will be boycotted by China, and possibly other countries by then, to try to force you to abandon your rule of law. What will you do then?
Funny you give such an example, as that's exactly what the US has been doing for decades. They reject submitting themselves to any international court, they impose the extraterritoriality of their legal system, so that foreigners must submit to US law even when abroad and in respect of deeds outside US territory. They sanction people, firms and countries not submitting to US laws and legislation. If the US can do it, why not China? Of course, in my opinion, it is wrong to do it, whether we are talking of China or the US, but to you, only China's actions are objectionable, never similar US actions. Why is that, I wonder...

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cassowary
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Re: "Death by a thousand cuts" for Australia?

Post by cassowary » Thu May 14, 2020 3:49 am

neverfail wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 10:54 pm
cassowary wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 8:09 pm

For some time I have been warning about the rise of China but till recently, neverfail didn’t take it seriously. He even said it was their turn or something like that. China’s rise will not be threatening if it is a democracy like Taiwan 🇹🇼 or even one like Singapore.

Please don't congratulate yourself too lavishly Cass as I have been aware all along that all was not marvelous within the Peoples Republic. It is just that I felt the need to challenge some of your more outrageous assertions.

China a democracy? you might as well wish for the moon. Even if it were China would still have the same set of national interests and the same craving for regional hegemony and global power and influence. Or are you unaware that even democracies, when they ammass too much power, can be warmongering too?
I don’t agree that China cannot become a democracy. It is possible given that other confuscianist societies have done so. Japan, Taiwan (Chinese), Korea and Singapore (mostly Chinese).

I suspect your reluctance stems from your secret wish that a Socialist/Communist power survive to challenge capitalism and the US. I recall you once expressed unhappiness over the fall of the Soviet Union because it left none to balance the US.

But how to reconcile your wish for the CCP to survive with their obvious odious dictatorial ways? The answer is a mental trick. You have convinced yourself that democracy is impossible in China. A new government will still be as brutal as one led by the CCP. So pointless to wish for the CCP ‘s downfall.

I think I figured you right.
The Imp :D

neverfail
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Re: "Death by a thousand cuts" for Australia?

Post by neverfail » Thu May 14, 2020 2:31 pm

cassowary wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 3:49 am

I don’t agree that China cannot become a democracy. It is possible given that other confuscianist societies have done so. Japan, Taiwan (Chinese), Korea and Singapore (mostly Chinese). [/color]
I know you don't cass and I have more than once expressed my disagreement with your view (and published my grounds for such a pessimistic take.).

Now, from this point on you become accusative - playing the man instead of the ball: shooting the messenger because you dislike the message:
cassowary wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 3:49 am
I suspect your reluctance stems from your secret wish that a Socialist/Communist power survive to challenge capitalism and the US.
Looking at past revolutionary upheavals that rid the world of absolutist tyrannies:

France: was Napoleon Bonaparte and improvement on the Bourbon kings of yore?

Russia: was Josef Stalin an improvement on Tsar Nickolas the Second?

In both cases the replacements were only more ruthlesly efficient; as distinct from better than those they replaced.

cassowary wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 3:49 am
But how to reconcile your wish for the CCP to survive with their obvious odious dictatorial ways? The answer is a mental trick. You have convinced yourself that democracy is impossible in China. A new government will still be as brutal as one led by the CCP. So pointless to wish for the CCP ‘s downfall.
Ideally I would love to see a slow evolution within the CCP into something closer to our ideal of democracy but that is only part of my wish list. But whatever armchair critics like you or I want is probably beside the point. History will take its course regardless.

China is NOT Taiwan, South Korea nor is it Japan. These in any case are yet to be fully tested in the midst of a global mega-crisis situation (like how the 1930's Great Depression culled away the shaky fledgling democracies of central and eastern Europe into authoritarian regimes while the solidly based democracies like the Scandanavian and Anglo ones endured throughout despite the catastrophe). Stop thinking of China and these others as being like identuical peas from the same pod.
cassowary wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 3:49 am
I think I figured you right.
No! When you can make such absurd speculations then it demonstrates that you do not know me at all. For that matter do you really know yourself?

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Milo
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Re: "Death by a thousand cuts" for Australia?

Post by Milo » Thu May 14, 2020 4:04 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 3:08 am
Milo wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 5:28 pm

Someday, a PRC oligarch may be arrested and imprisoned on your soil according to your law and Australia will be boycotted by China, and possibly other countries by then, to try to force you to abandon your rule of law. What will you do then?
Funny you give such an example, as that's exactly what the US has been doing for decades. They reject submitting themselves to any international court, they impose the extraterritoriality of their legal system, so that foreigners must submit to US law even when abroad and in respect of deeds outside US territory. They sanction people, firms and countries not submitting to US laws and legislation. If the US can do it, why not China? Of course, in my opinion, it is wrong to do it, whether we are talking of China or the US, but to you, only China's actions are objectionable, never similar US actions. Why is that, I wonder...
I am not aware of the US boycotting a country for following its law and international law. Let's have an example.

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Sertorio
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Re: "Death by a thousand cuts" for Australia?

Post by Sertorio » Fri May 15, 2020 4:16 am

Milo wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 4:04 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 3:08 am
Milo wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 5:28 pm

Someday, a PRC oligarch may be arrested and imprisoned on your soil according to your law and Australia will be boycotted by China, and possibly other countries by then, to try to force you to abandon your rule of law. What will you do then?
Funny you give such an example, as that's exactly what the US has been doing for decades. They reject submitting themselves to any international court, they impose the extraterritoriality of their legal system, so that foreigners must submit to US law even when abroad and in respect of deeds outside US territory. They sanction people, firms and countries not submitting to US laws and legislation. If the US can do it, why not China? Of course, in my opinion, it is wrong to do it, whether we are talking of China or the US, but to you, only China's actions are objectionable, never similar US actions. Why is that, I wonder...
I am not aware of the US boycotting a country for following its law and international law. Let's have an example.
I wonder what your interpretation is of the US forcing under threat a pipe laying Swiss firm to drop the Nord Stream 2 contract before finishing it, although the Swiss firm was not violating any Swiss or international law... Or trying to prevent Iranian oil reaching Syria, although there is no UN sanctioned boycott against Syria, on what concerns oil imports...

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