Sopa de Wuhan (Wuhan Soup)

Discussion of current events
neverfail
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Re: Sopa de Wuhan (Wuhan Soup)

Post by neverfail » Sun May 03, 2020 5:17 am

cassowary wrote:
Sat May 02, 2020 11:58 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Sat May 02, 2020 4:11 am
cassowary wrote:
Sat May 02, 2020 3:59 am
What's the book about?
It includes a number of essays by authors of various nationalities about the political, social and economic short term and long term consequences of the coronavirus pandemic. A few of those essays were originally written in English, so you may find them in English on the web.
Well, I think one major change will be the supply chain. Companies will move their factories away from China to India, Thailand, Vietnam and Mexico. China has shown the world that it cannot be trusted.
Vietnam maybe; but do not count on Mexico or Thailand. Their economies are crumbling and their societies and likely their politics along with it are about to go into meltdown.

Are you not aware that the familar world we know is about to come to an end?

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cassowary
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Re: Sopa de Wuhan (Wuhan Soup)

Post by cassowary » Sun May 03, 2020 6:29 am

neverfail wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 5:17 am
cassowary wrote:
Sat May 02, 2020 11:58 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Sat May 02, 2020 4:11 am
cassowary wrote:
Sat May 02, 2020 3:59 am
What's the book about?
It includes a number of essays by authors of various nationalities about the political, social and economic short term and long term consequences of the coronavirus pandemic. A few of those essays were originally written in English, so you may find them in English on the web.
Well, I think one major change will be the supply chain. Companies will move their factories away from China to India, Thailand, Vietnam and Mexico. China has shown the world that it cannot be trusted.
Vietnam maybe; but do not count on Mexico or Thailand. Their economies are crumbling and their societies and likely their politics along with it are about to go into meltdown.

Are you not aware that the familar world we know is about to come to an end?
I am not so pessimistic.
The Imp :D

neverfail
Posts: 5241
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2016 3:47 am
Location: Singapore

Re: Sopa de Wuhan (Wuhan Soup)

Post by neverfail » Sun May 03, 2020 5:23 pm

cassowary wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 6:29 am
neverfail wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 5:17 am
cassowary wrote:
Sat May 02, 2020 11:58 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Sat May 02, 2020 4:11 am
cassowary wrote:
Sat May 02, 2020 3:59 am
What's the book about?
It includes a number of essays by authors of various nationalities about the political, social and economic short term and long term consequences of the coronavirus pandemic. A few of those essays were originally written in English, so you may find them in English on the web.
Well, I think one major change will be the supply chain. Companies will move their factories away from China to India, Thailand, Vietnam and Mexico. China has shown the world that it cannot be trusted.
Vietnam maybe; but do not count on Mexico or Thailand. Their economies are crumbling and their societies and likely their politics along with it are about to go into meltdown.

Are you not aware that the familar world we know is about to come to an end?
I am not so pessimistic.
Do you have reason to be? I can't see why.

With the world slumping into a global recession that it likely to be long and hard, I can understand both foreignors and Chinese wanting to close down productive enterprises in China. But to transfer these to Vietnam or anywhere else with a view to exporting the output elsewhere currently makes no sense at all - for the simple reason that there won't be any recepive global market market out there ready and willing to buy them.

Short of a miraculous intervention, it now looks like the post-Second World War era of international free trade has come to an abrupt close. Governments and nations shall from now on be scrambling with various interventionist policies to look after their own - just like in the Great Depression years of the 1930's when the ill advised Smoot-Hawley tariffs triggered a domino effect series of retalitory tariff imposts worldwide that further diminished the flow of international trade thereby helping to prolong the Depression. Trump's "America first" and subsequent trade war embargos will likely be looked upon in future history as the latter-day equivalent to Smoot-Hawley.

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cassowary
Posts: 3954
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Re: Sopa de Wuhan (Wuhan Soup)

Post by cassowary » Sun May 03, 2020 5:39 pm

neverfail wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 5:23 pm
cassowary wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 6:29 am
neverfail wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 5:17 am
cassowary wrote:
Sat May 02, 2020 11:58 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Sat May 02, 2020 4:11 am
cassowary wrote:
Sat May 02, 2020 3:59 am
What's the book about?
It includes a number of essays by authors of various nationalities about the political, social and economic short term and long term consequences of the coronavirus pandemic. A few of those essays were originally written in English, so you may find them in English on the web.
Well, I think one major change will be the supply chain. Companies will move their factories away from China to India, Thailand, Vietnam and Mexico. China has shown the world that it cannot be trusted.
Vietnam maybe; but do not count on Mexico or Thailand. Their economies are crumbling and their societies and likely their politics along with it are about to go into meltdown.

Are you not aware that the familar world we know is about to come to an end?
I am not so pessimistic.
Do you have reason to be? I can't see why.

With the world slumping into a global recession that it likely to be long and hard, I can understand both foreignors and Chinese wanting to close down productive enterprises in China. But to transfer these to Vietnam or anywhere else with a view to exporting the output elsewhere currently makes no sense at all - for the simple reason that there won't be any recepive global market market out there ready and willing to buy them.

Short of a miraculous intervention, it now looks like the post-Second World War era of international free trade has come to an abrupt close. Governments and nations shall from now on be scrambling with various interventionist policies to look after their own - just like in the Great Depression years of the 1930's when the ill advised Smoot-Hawley tariffs triggered a domino effect series of retalitory tariff imposts worldwide that further diminished the flow of international trade thereby helping to prolong the Depression. Trump's "America first" and subsequent trade war embargos will likely be looked upon in future history as the latter-day equivalent to Smoot-Hawley.
Either a cure or a vaccine will be found. The economies will recover. Even if there is no cure or vaccine, the virus will evolve into something less lethal. The world is beginning to realise that a lockdown for everybody is unnecessary because the virus is lethal mainly for the old.

So the majority may safely go back to work.
The Imp :D

neverfail
Posts: 5241
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2016 3:47 am
Location: Singapore

Re: Sopa de Wuhan (Wuhan Soup)

Post by neverfail » Sun May 03, 2020 8:50 pm

cassowary wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 5:39 pm


Either a cure or a vaccine will be found. The economies will recover. Even if there is no cure or vaccine, the virus will evolve into something less lethal. The world is beginning to realise that a lockdown for everybody is unnecessary because the virus is lethal mainly for the old.
Not exclusively for the old by any means.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source ... ial%20care.
cassowary wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 5:39 pm
So the majority may safely go back to work.
No they can'! Stop believing in convenient myths like that Cassowary. I get the impression that you are only concerned about the solvency of your damned business interests - not the wellbeing of others.

A cavalier lack of concern for the death and suffering of others like that (and you have already made clear that you regard the deaths and suffering of Coronavirus victims as nothing more than incidental roadkill) is among the behavoural traits of a pyschopath.

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Milo
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Re: Sopa de Wuhan (Wuhan Soup)

Post by Milo » Sun May 03, 2020 11:13 pm

neverfail wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 8:50 pm
cassowary wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 5:39 pm


Either a cure or a vaccine will be found. The economies will recover. Even if there is no cure or vaccine, the virus will evolve into something less lethal. The world is beginning to realise that a lockdown for everybody is unnecessary because the virus is lethal mainly for the old.
Not exclusively for the old by any means.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source ... ial%20care.
cassowary wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 5:39 pm
So the majority may safely go back to work.
No they can'! Stop believing in convenient myths like that Cassowary. I get the impression that you are only concerned about the solvency of your damned business interests - not the wellbeing of others.

A cavalier lack of concern for the death and suffering of others like that (and you have already made clear that you regard the deaths and suffering of Coronavirus victims as nothing more than incidental roadkill) is among the behavoural traits of a pyschopath.
Cass:

The Spanish flu mainly killed the young and vaccines are only good against the viruses we know about. I think you take your medical advice from a failed real estate developer.

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cassowary
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Re: Sopa de Wuhan (Wuhan Soup)

Post by cassowary » Mon May 04, 2020 1:14 am

neverfail wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 8:50 pm
cassowary wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 5:39 pm


Either a cure or a vaccine will be found. The economies will recover. Even if there is no cure or vaccine, the virus will evolve into something less lethal. The world is beginning to realise that a lockdown for everybody is unnecessary because the virus is lethal mainly for the old.
Not exclusively for the old by any means.
That's why I used the word, "mainly". I did not use the word, "exclusively." To amplify what I said, let me give you more detailed data.

Take a look at this link. From this link, you can see that those above 65 account for 72.3% of deaths by covid19. So my statement that the majority of deaths are the old (ie above 65) is correct.

The young (ie below 65) who die usually have pre-existing illnesses such as cancer, diabetes, heart disease, high blood pressure etc. So such people are also vulnerable.

I think the lockdown should only be limited to the old and those will pre-existing illnesses.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source ... ial%20care.
cassowary wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 5:39 pm
So the majority may safely go back to work.
No they can'! Stop believing in convenient myths like that Cassowary. I get the impression that you are only concerned about the solvency of your damned business interests - not the wellbeing of others.
I think you need to be acquainted with the data, Neverfail. The mortality rate for covid19 is low on average. How low? Well take a look at the data coming from Los Angeles county.
USC and the health department released preliminary study results that found that an estimated 4.1% of the county’s adult population has antibodies to the coronavirus, estimating that between 221,000 adults to 442,000 adults in the county have had the infection.

This new estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of Covid-19 reported to the county through early April. The number of coronavirus-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600, according to the Department of Public Health. The data, if correct, would mean that the county’s fatality rate is lower than originally thought.
So between 220,000 and 440,000 people in Los Angeles are infected. Let's take the average of the two numbers. This means 330,000 people are infected. Out of this, only 600 people died. This works out to a fatality rate of 600/330,000 = 0.2%. Do you know what is the fatality rate for the common flu? It is about 0.1%. So the coronavirus is only slightly more deadly. Over time, it will become less and less deadly.

Do we shut down the whole country because of flu? No. In the case of the coronavirus, we should only keep the old and vulnerable at home. The others can return to work. Remember, people need to work to put food on the table. Or they starve. Do you want people to die of starvation?
A cavalier lack of concern for the death and suffering of others like that (and you have already made clear that you regard the deaths and suffering of Coronavirus victims as nothing more than incidental roadkill) is among the behavoural traits of a pyschopath.
You seem to think that people don't need to work to put food on the table. Do you expect food to appear magically on your table? Oh wait. Maybe you do. You are a Socialist and believe that you can get fed, housed, clothed without working for it.
The Imp :D

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Sertorio
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Re: Sopa de Wuhan (Wuhan Soup)

Post by Sertorio » Mon May 04, 2020 1:58 am

Cass,

I tend to be mostly with you on this one. And being over 70 I would be one of those "condemned" to isolation. Which in fact does not bother me at all. Reading, writing, talking to you guys on this forum, enjoying the company of one of my daughters, playing with the dogs, enjoying my garden, is something I gladly endure... ;)

neverfail
Posts: 5241
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Location: Singapore

Re: Sopa de Wuhan (Wuhan Soup)

Post by neverfail » Mon May 04, 2020 3:33 am

cassowary wrote:
Mon May 04, 2020 1:14 am


So between 220,000 and 440,000 people in Los Angeles are infected. Let's take the average of the two numbers. This means 330,000 people are infected. Out of this, only 600 people died. This works out to a fatality rate of 600/330,000 = 0.2%. Do you know what is the fatality rate for the common flu? It is about 0.1%. So the coronavirus is only slightly more deadly. Over time, it will become less and less deadly.
An utterly false analogy Cassowary.

Common flu we have learned to live with. I had my booster flu vacine just a couple of weeks ago. So did my wife and so have a lot of other Australians. I and my wife got ours without cost under our national health cover: but even those who do not qualify can get innoculated here at low cost.

The point is that there is NO known vacine for COVID-19 so I cannot get a preventitive shot to protect me from this monster virus. That is the big difference.

What all of those (preventable) flu deaths in Los Angeles point to is the failure of masses of Angelinos to get annual flu vacanations - which I am sure reflects cost - many very likely cannot afford to visit a doctor and get one. If the United States had medical and hospital cover like ours those common flu mortality figures would drop virtually to zero - as they have here in Australia.
cassowary wrote:
Mon May 04, 2020 1:14 am
Do we shut down the whole country because of flu? No. In the case of the coronavirus, we should only keep the old and vulnerable at home. The others can return to work. Remember, people need to work to put food on the table. Or they starve. Do you want people to die of starvation?
In my country they don't die of starvation: they merely go on unemployment relief. It still means reduced living standards and straitened household budgets but at least you do not starve.

Going hungry after you lose your job is for unfortunate people living in poor, backward countries that do not allow social security and welfare support.

( :oops: Oh, you do not have unemployment relief in Singapore, do you? Well how much longer will it take before your government up there finally, collectively pull the old finger out to bring Singapore into line with other advanced countries that way? Singapore has an average per-capata income higher than even my country somup there you can easily afford it. :D )

neverfail
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Re: Sopa de Wuhan (Wuhan Soup)

Post by neverfail » Mon May 04, 2020 3:36 am

Sertorio wrote:
Mon May 04, 2020 1:58 am
Cass,

I tend to be mostly with you on this one. And being over 70 I would be one of those "condemned" to isolation. Which in fact does not bother me at all. Reading, writing, talking to you guys on this forum, enjoying the company of one of my daughters, playing with the dogs, enjoying my garden, is something I gladly endure... ;)
It sounds like you and I are in the same situation in life. Your words (above) could adequately describe my lifestyle (with the difference that I have a married son and three grandchildren).

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