Pandemic

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Doc
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Pandemic

Post by Doc » Sat Feb 22, 2020 5:55 pm

10% of the worlds population is now under quarantine. But more importantly there are now three outbreaks of COVID-19 in three countries on three different continents that are from untraceable sources. By even the WHO's standards that is the definition of Pandemic. The quarantine is broken.

The WHO is saying the death rate is between 0.25 and 4% of those infected. With 60% infection of the world's population within a year. (Some say it could be 80%) That **BY_THE_WHO'S_Estimates implies between 12 million and 180 million dead. But it could be as high as 1 billion dead given the questionable numbers and the lack of enough medical equipment to handle mass numbers of people needing care. Not to mention the lower standards of health care in the third world.




So how exactly did we get here?
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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cassowary
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Re: Pandemic

Post by cassowary » Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:08 pm

It is too late to contain the covig 19 virus. That's because poor countries like Indonesia refuses to admit it has a problem. They are still claiming zero cases. This is impossible because it gets thousands of Mainland Chinese visitors.

I can understand their predicament. If Indonesia admits they have a problem, their economy will go into recession and riots will ensue. Yes, people will die. But poor countries like Indonesia has other diseases which kill people anyway. So they see it as the lesser of two evils.

Don't forget that during the Asian financial crisis in 1998(?), there were riots which toppled the Surhato regime. They don't want a repeat. The same calculation must be true in other third world countries.
The Imp :D

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Sertorio
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Re: Pandemic

Post by Sertorio » Sun Feb 23, 2020 2:39 am

cassowary wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:08 pm
It is too late to contain the covig 19 virus. That's because poor countries like Indonesia refuses to admit it has a problem. They are still claiming zero cases. This is impossible because it gets thousands of Mainland Chinese visitors.

I can understand their predicament. If Indonesia admits they have a problem, their economy will go into recession and riots will ensue. Yes, people will die. But poor countries like Indonesia has other diseases which kill people anyway. So they see it as the lesser of two evils.

Don't forget that during the Asian financial crisis in 1998(?), there were riots which toppled the Surhato regime. They don't want a repeat. The same calculation must be true in other third world countries.
Viral epidemics disappear on their own, even if you do nothing to stop them. The Spanish flu was a lot worse than this Covid19, there was practically no treatment at the time, and it disappeared quite suddenly. The same will happen with this virus. Which doesn't mean we shouldn't be careful.

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cassowary
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Re: Pandemic

Post by cassowary » Sun Feb 23, 2020 4:02 am

Sertorio wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 2:39 am
cassowary wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:08 pm
It is too late to contain the covig 19 virus. That's because poor countries like Indonesia refuses to admit it has a problem. They are still claiming zero cases. This is impossible because it gets thousands of Mainland Chinese visitors.

I can understand their predicament. If Indonesia admits they have a problem, their economy will go into recession and riots will ensue. Yes, people will die. But poor countries like Indonesia has other diseases which kill people anyway. So they see it as the lesser of two evils.

Don't forget that during the Asian financial crisis in 1998(?), there were riots which toppled the Surhato regime. They don't want a repeat. The same calculation must be true in other third world countries.
Viral epidemics disappear on their own, even if you do nothing to stop them. The Spanish flu was a lot worse than this Covid19, there was practically no treatment at the time, and it disappeared quite suddenly. The same will happen with this virus. Which doesn't mean we shouldn't be careful.
What precautions are you taking? How many cases in Portugal? Heard anything about Morocco? I will be making a trip there in April.
The Imp :D

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Sertorio
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Re: Pandemic

Post by Sertorio » Sun Feb 23, 2020 4:07 am

cassowary wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 4:02 am
Sertorio wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 2:39 am
cassowary wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:08 pm
It is too late to contain the covig 19 virus. That's because poor countries like Indonesia refuses to admit it has a problem. They are still claiming zero cases. This is impossible because it gets thousands of Mainland Chinese visitors.

I can understand their predicament. If Indonesia admits they have a problem, their economy will go into recession and riots will ensue. Yes, people will die. But poor countries like Indonesia has other diseases which kill people anyway. So they see it as the lesser of two evils.

Don't forget that during the Asian financial crisis in 1998(?), there were riots which toppled the Surhato regime. They don't want a repeat. The same calculation must be true in other third world countries.
Viral epidemics disappear on their own, even if you do nothing to stop them. The Spanish flu was a lot worse than this Covid19, there was practically no treatment at the time, and it disappeared quite suddenly. The same will happen with this virus. Which doesn't mean we shouldn't be careful.
What precautions are you taking? How many cases in Portugal? Heard anything about Morocco? I will be making a trip there in April.
There have been no cases in Portugal, so I am not taking any precautions. But I would consider staying at home for a couple of weeks if the virus appears in Portugal. I live in the countryside, so that wouldn't be too difficult to do. As far a Morocco is concerned, I haven't heard of any occurrence there.

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Doc
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Re: Pandemic

Post by Doc » Sun Feb 23, 2020 4:12 am

Sertorio wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 2:39 am
cassowary wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:08 pm
It is too late to contain the covig 19 virus. That's because poor countries like Indonesia refuses to admit it has a problem. They are still claiming zero cases. This is impossible because it gets thousands of Mainland Chinese visitors.

I can understand their predicament. If Indonesia admits they have a problem, their economy will go into recession and riots will ensue. Yes, people will die. But poor countries like Indonesia has other diseases which kill people anyway. So they see it as the lesser of two evils.

Don't forget that during the Asian financial crisis in 1998(?), there were riots which toppled the Surhato regime. They don't want a repeat. The same calculation must be true in other third world countries.
Viral epidemics disappear on their own, even if you do nothing to stop them. The Spanish flu was a lot worse than this Covid19, there was practically no treatment at the time, and it disappeared quite suddenly. The same will happen with this virus. Which doesn't mean we shouldn't be careful.
You are right Sertorio People change their behavior and the virus runs out of people to infect. Ebola in Africa a few years ago went away not because of the international medical effort but because people stopped behaving in ways that spread it. But I fear this will be a huge human tragedy before all is said and done.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Doc
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Re: Pandemic

Post by Doc » Sun Feb 23, 2020 4:20 am

Sertorio wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 4:07 am
cassowary wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 4:02 am
Sertorio wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 2:39 am
cassowary wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:08 pm
It is too late to contain the covig 19 virus. That's because poor countries like Indonesia refuses to admit it has a problem. They are still claiming zero cases. This is impossible because it gets thousands of Mainland Chinese visitors.

I can understand their predicament. If Indonesia admits they have a problem, their economy will go into recession and riots will ensue. Yes, people will die. But poor countries like Indonesia has other diseases which kill people anyway. So they see it as the lesser of two evils.

Don't forget that during the Asian financial crisis in 1998(?), there were riots which toppled the Surhato regime. They don't want a repeat. The same calculation must be true in other third world countries.
Viral epidemics disappear on their own, even if you do nothing to stop them. The Spanish flu was a lot worse than this Covid19, there was practically no treatment at the time, and it disappeared quite suddenly. The same will happen with this virus. Which doesn't mean we shouldn't be careful.
What precautions are you taking? How many cases in Portugal? Heard anything about Morocco? I will be making a trip there in April.
There have been no cases in Portugal, so I am not taking any precautions. But I would consider staying at home for a couple of weeks if the virus appears in Portugal. I live in the countryside, so that wouldn't be too difficult to do. As far a Morocco is concerned, I haven't heard of any occurrence there.
Make sure you have plenty of food and water. Say a large amount of rice and salt. Canned food. Anything with a long shelf life. Any medicine that needs to be taken. Especially the latter as China produces so much of it and is currently not producing much of anything.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

neverfail
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Re: Pandemic

Post by neverfail » Sun Feb 23, 2020 2:26 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 2:39 am

Viral epidemics disappear on their own, even if you do nothing to stop them. The Spanish flu was a lot worse than this Covid19, there was practically no treatment at the time, and it disappeared quite suddenly.
If you are talking about the Spanish flu pandemic that spread around the world in 1919 then you are right; it did disappear after it had killed 60 million people globally - at a time when the World's total population was only a fraction the size that it is now. 60 million was ten times the number killed during World War One that preceded it.

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Sertorio
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Re: Pandemic

Post by Sertorio » Sun Feb 23, 2020 4:47 pm

neverfail wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 2:26 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 2:39 am

Viral epidemics disappear on their own, even if you do nothing to stop them. The Spanish flu was a lot worse than this Covid19, there was practically no treatment at the time, and it disappeared quite suddenly.
If you are talking about the Spanish flu pandemic that spread around the world in 1919 then you are right; it did disappear after it had killed 60 million people globally - at a time when the World's total population was only a fraction the size that it is now. 60 million was ten times the number killed during World War One that preceded it.
That was 3% of the world population then. Unfortunate as it would be for those losing loved ones, I think the world could afford losing 3% of its present population...

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Doc
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Re: Pandemic

Post by Doc » Sun Feb 23, 2020 7:15 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 4:47 pm
neverfail wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 2:26 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 2:39 am

Viral epidemics disappear on their own, even if you do nothing to stop them. The Spanish flu was a lot worse than this Covid19, there was practically no treatment at the time, and it disappeared quite suddenly.
If you are talking about the Spanish flu pandemic that spread around the world in 1919 then you are right; it did disappear after it had killed 60 million people globally - at a time when the World's total population was only a fraction the size that it is now. 60 million was ten times the number killed during World War One that preceded it.
That was 3% of the world population then. Unfortunate as it would be for those losing loved ones, I think the world could afford losing 3% of its present population...
The WHO estimates between 0.25 and 4% death rate. With 60% of the human race being infected. 12 to 180 million people dead. But in Iran there are worries of the Virus mutating to a more virulent form. Right now the death rate there is close to 20% Which if it holds up, would be 1.56 billion people dead.

CGTN cited a study that shows there are at least 5 evolutionary strains of COVID 19
Image

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-02-23/N ... index.html
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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