China's Coronavirus is Much Worse Than You Think

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Doc
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Re: China's Coronavirus is Much Worse Than You Think

Post by Doc » Sun Feb 02, 2020 6:21 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Sun Feb 02, 2020 4:39 pm
Doc wrote:
Sun Feb 02, 2020 4:15 pm

I would say they are doing everything they can do as far as quarantined go. That is what they need to do more than anything else. The problem is that this is all top down. If local officials say there is a problem they get in trouble. And since anyone complaining outside of government faces a 7 year jail term for speaking up the top leadership is never going to here things are going wrong until it is too late. Like for example finding out there is a serious outbreak of a new virus like the coronavirus.

This is the problem with totalitarianism. Top down solutions rarely work out the way they are supposedly meant to. There is no feed back because the leadership feels it knows what is best to do with the lives of everyone else. Generally totalitarianism fails because of this. It is the human nature of people that dictate to feel they know all the answers ad also feel it is a real pain in the ass when they are told their way of doing something is not working. So they instead of fixing the problem suppress other ideas of what to do.
A less authoritarian government could never try and control the movement of tens of millions people, as the Chinese government has done in Wuhan, in order to make the spread of the virus more difficult. Wait until something like this happens in the US and we will see how much better the government will cope with it... My feeling is that it would be ten times worse in the US than it has been in China.
In a free society without censorship this outbreak would much more likely not have gotten so far.

The new infections today in Hubei province are at 11177 cases. Yesterday the number was 7153 that is a rate of increase of 56.2561163% up from 18% two days ago and 23 % yesterday.

Having looked at the situation I would guess at least part of that rate increase is due to people running out of food and local shortages. It seems the leadership of China did not take into account the logistics of making sure people have food thus forcing people to go out further to find it.

People are dying So what do you think China's 5 year plan should be to deal with people dying today?
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Re: China's Coronavirus is Much Worse Than You Think

Post by neverfail » Mon Feb 03, 2020 1:14 pm

Doc wrote:
Sun Feb 02, 2020 6:21 pm

In a free society without censorship this outbreak would much more likely not have gotten so far.

The new infections today in Hubei province are at 11177 cases. Yesterday the number was 7153 that is a rate of increase of 56.2561163% up from 18% two days ago and 23 % yesterday.

People are dying So what do you think China's 5 year plan should be to deal with people dying today?
The best explanation for this debacle I have read so far lies in the Chinese Communist Party pulling in different directions at different levels.

Unlike in your country and mine there is no independent civil service in the PRC - the Communist Party itself IS the civil administration of the country.

Quite often it seems the provincial cells of the ruling party fail to communicate bad news up to the party leadership in Beijing. Instead they are inclined to cover up the bad news and hope it remains unnoticed. Why? Because the provincial and regional branches of the Party want to retain as much local autonomy as possible. Admitting that something has gone wrong on their patch of turf too big for them to rectify attracts Beijing's attention and (worse still) intervention with loss of regional autonomy.

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Re: China's Coronavirus is Much Worse Than You Think

Post by Doc » Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:26 pm

neverfail wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2020 1:14 pm
Doc wrote:
Sun Feb 02, 2020 6:21 pm

In a free society without censorship this outbreak would much more likely not have gotten so far.

The new infections today in Hubei province are at 11177 cases. Yesterday the number was 7153 that is a rate of increase of 56.2561163% up from 18% two days ago and 23 % yesterday.

People are dying So what do you think China's 5 year plan should be to deal with people dying today?
The best explanation for this debacle I have read so far lies in the Chinese Communist Party pulling in different directions at different levels.

Unlike in your country and mine there is no independent civil service in the PRC - the Communist Party itself IS the civil administration of the country.

Quite often it seems the provincial cells of the ruling party fail to communicate bad news up to the party leadership in Beijing. Instead they are inclined to cover up the bad news and hope it remains unnoticed. Why? Because the provincial and regional branches of the Party want to retain as much local autonomy as possible. Admitting that something has gone wrong on their patch of turf too big for them to rectify attracts Beijing's attention and (worse still) intervention with loss of regional autonomy.
it seems more like shoot the messenger.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Re: China's Coronavirus is Much Worse Than You Think

Post by Doc » Tue Feb 04, 2020 5:12 am

WHO is on first?





https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6
20679 cases Double in three days.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Re: China's Coronavirus is Much Worse Than You Think

Post by Doc » Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:26 am

CCP now asking for US help ASAP

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202002/ ... 74aa5.html

China hopes US provides vowed help with outbreak soon
24,630
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Re: China's Coronavirus is Much Worse Than You Think

Post by Doc » Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:28 am

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... story.html
The coronavirus outbreak shows the vulnerability of the ‘Chinese model’
Workers on Tuesday arrange beds in a convention center that has been converted into a temporary hospital in Wuhan, China. (Chinatopix via AP)
Workers on Tuesday arrange beds in a convention center that has been converted into a temporary hospital in Wuhan, China. (Chinatopix via AP)
Image without a caption
By
David Ignatius
Columnist
Feb. 4, 2020 at 6:29 p.m. EST

The “Chinese model,” as enthusiasts sometimes describe Beijing’s autocratic system for dictating policy, can look eerily successful — until you consider catastrophic events such as the recent coronavirus outbreak.

China’s response to the epidemic that began in Wuhan nearly two months ago shows some advantages of its police-state approach, and some severe disadvantages: Chinese authorities can commandeer resources to build a hospital in 10 days. But by stifling bad news and even arresting vigilant doctors, they create deep distrust at home and abroad, risking their ability to be effective.

Chinese people simply don’t believe their government. They know that government health data is suspect, just like China’s official economic numbers. And just as all success is attached to President Xi Jinping, so is every failure. China may be racing into the future, but its bungled response to the coronavirus outbreak is a reminder of how suddenly it can stumble.
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The public’s distrust of the government emerged in interviews conducted this week by an American business executive who worked in Shanghai for three years and who shared with me conversations with former colleagues there. These Shanghai residents expressed deep skepticism about official data, which as of Tuesday showed more than 23,000 cases and 490 deaths.

“I personally doubt the numbers are accurate. I believe there are lots of missing cases, especially in rural area,” said one of the Chinese residents. “I think there are definitely miscounted numbers as some people died before there were cases diagnosed,” said a second. “Don’t trust the official numbers,” bluntly cautioned a third.

This third Shanghai resident expressed a widely shared fear that the authorities didn’t learn from the SARS outbreak in 2003: “Seventeen years after SARS, they are still making the same mistakes, nightmare mistakes, that’s my deepest despair. From holding back the truth, to [inadequate] preparations for disaster, to [slow] speed of reaction, to chaotic supply distributions. Those are all repeated mistakes.”
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A dramatic example of how China’s police-state tactics backfired is the case of Dr. Li Wenliang, an ophthalmologist at Wuhan Central Hospital. In late December, Li noticed cases of a virus that resembled SARS. He posted a warning to other doctors on Dec. 30, advising them to wear protective clothing. On Jan. 1, the Wuhan Public Security Bureau, the local equivalent of the FBI, summoned Li to sign a statement that he had made “false comments” that “severely disturbed the social order.”

Xinhua News Agency joined the public shaming of Li and other doctors who had posted warnings. “The police call on all netizens not to fabricate rumors, not spread rumors, not believe rumors,” the story said, but instead to “jointly build a harmonious, clear and bright cyberspace.”

Three weeks after Li had tried to sound the alarm, China declared the virus outbreak a national emergency. The Supreme People’s Court later denounced the arrests of Li and others and said: “Rumors end when there is openness.”
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But China can’t have this openness when authorities work so diligently to control negative information — about disease or anything else. The New York Times gathered some chilling examples: Hong Kong journalists who went to a Wuhan hospital in mid-January were detained and told to delete their footage. A Hong Kong television reporter who had covered the SARS epidemic posted an article about the new virus, but it was quickly deleted. A military doctor who helped expose the seriousness of SARS was later pilloried for harming the interests of the nation.

Xu Zhiyuan, a Chinese journalist who decried Beijing’s actions in suppressing the SARS outbreak, wrote later about the costs of such censorship. The Times article quoted his social media post: “The system is successful in that it destroyed the people with integrity, the institutions with credibility and a society capable of narrating its own stories.”

The financial cost of suppressing information and letting coronavirus spread in its early weeks could run to hundreds of billions of dollars. Goldman Sachs estimated in a forecast for clients Tuesday that a severe outbreak could reduce China’s gross domestic product growth in 2020 by more than a full percentage point. Already, Chinese financial markets have taken a huge hit.
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China’s command economy, managed by a one-party dictatorship, has achieved miracles in recent decades. In comparison, an open and contentious democracy like the United States can sometimes seem like a losing proposition. But we’re now witnessing a striking reminder of the need for open sources of information and public officials who aren’t cowed by political pressure.

Xi thundered on Monday that Chinese officials who “lack boldness” in responding to coronavirus will be punished. Perhaps he will dictate that patients who don’t get well quickly will be jailed, too.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Re: China's Coronavirus is Much Worse Than You Think

Post by armchair_pundit » Fri Feb 07, 2020 6:09 am

Folks, this is not good... Take precautions to be able to shelter in place for 30 days

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... quarantine

A Stunning 400 Million People Are On Lockdown In China As Guangzhou Joins Quarantine
Profile picture for user Tyler Durden
by Tyler Durden
Fri, 02/07/2020 - 07:59

Guangzhou, the capital of China's southwestern Guangdong Province and the country's fifth largest city with nearly 15 million residents, has just joined the ranks of cities imposing a mandatory lockdown on all citizens, effectively trapping residents inside their homes, with only limited permission to venture into the outside world to buy essential supplies.

The decision means 3 provinces, 60 cities and 400 million people are now facing China's most-strict level of lockdown as Beijing struggles to contain the coronavirus outbreak as the virus has already spread to more than 2 dozen countries.

That's more than 400 million people forcibly locked inside their homes for 638 deaths? Just think about that: If there was ever a reason to believe that Beijing is lying about the numbers (and not just because Tencent accidentally leaked the real data), this is it.



Breaking: Guangzhou City (population: 14 M) locked down. All residential blocks be isolated from each other. So far around 400 million people locked down in #China to contain #coronavirus. #coronavirusOutbreak Original Chinese official report:https://t.co/emfLIaOLut pic.twitter.com/RmX82iDOEH
— 曾錚 Jennifer Zeng (@jenniferatntd) February 7, 2020

Meanwhile, in the US, the Trump Administration has directed researchers to investigate the 'true origins' of the virus, as 'conspiracy theories' and misinformation spreads online. We can't help but wonder: What if the scientists discover something that the regime in Beijing doesn't want them to see?

白宮要求美國科學家和醫學研究者調查 #新型冠狀病毒 的起源。#武汉肺炎 https://t.co/mZPAYz0K1N
— 曾錚 Jennifer Zeng (@jenniferatntd) February 7, 2020

Elsewhere, Singapore raised its national disease response level to Orange, the second-highest level and the same level from the SARS epidemic, according to the city-state's health ministry. It also confirmed three new coronavirus cases. While investigations are ongoing, none of the three appear to have a history of recent travel to China, suggesting they picked up the virus in Singapore.

'Orange' means the outbreak "is severe and spreads easily from person to person" but "has not spread widely in Singapore and is being contained," according to the Disease Outbreak Response System Condition color-coded framework. Singapore has never invoked its highest level, red, per BBG.

Foreigners are complaining that the new hospitals in Wuhan are merely 'quarantine centers' without any medical resources.

Dear Gov’t of Uganda,

The famous makeshift “hospitalsh the Chinese Gov’t is bragging about are not hospitals, they are quarantine areas where patients are not receiving any treatment at all. Is this the place you’re saying is safer for us ? #EvacuateUgandansInWuhan pic.twitter.com/sLzdUHA24P
— Thomas (@owishemwe) February 7, 2020

Receive a daily recap featuring a curated list of must-read stories.

Yesterday, Beijing argued that the virus outbreak had 'peaked' as they cited a drop in the rate of new infections. However, others have suggested that the rate of new confirmed cases has more to do with Beijing's limited resources.

It's been said by others but I'll say it too:

The way China is reporting almost an identical number of new coronavirus cases each day (approximately 3000) MUST be a reflection of its diagnosis capacity rather than the true caseload, which is likely much worse.
— Mark B. Spiegel (@markbspiegel) February 7, 2020

The WHO said during a press conference on Thursday that it's too early to claim that the outbreak has peaked, even as the outlook for the global economy falls off a cliff.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... virus.html

“Cruise ship with ‘isolated’ Chinese nationals on board is due to dock in Bayonne, New Jersey, after Bahamas trip and sick passengers will be tested for coronavirus

Royal Caribbean cruise ship will have sick passengers tested this morning
At least a dozen Chinese tourists are reportedly in isolation on the ship
There are 12 coronavirus cases in the US, but none in the New York region “

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Re: China's Coronavirus is Much Worse Than You Think

Post by Doc » Fri Feb 07, 2020 6:16 am

armchair_pundit wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 6:09 am
Folks, this is not good... Take precautions to be able to shelter in place for 30 days

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... quarantine

A Stunning 400 Million People Are On Lockdown In China As Guangzhou Joins Quarantine
Profile picture for user Tyler Durden
by Tyler Durden
Fri, 02/07/2020 - 07:59

Guangzhou, the capital of China's southwestern Guangdong Province and the country's fifth largest city with nearly 15 million residents, has just joined the ranks of cities imposing a mandatory lockdown on all citizens, effectively trapping residents inside their homes, with only limited permission to venture into the outside world to buy essential supplies.

The decision means 3 provinces, 60 cities and 400 million people are now facing China's most-strict level of lockdown as Beijing struggles to contain the coronavirus outbreak as the virus has already spread to more than 2 dozen countries.

That's more than 400 million people forcibly locked inside their homes for 638 deaths? Just think about that: If there was ever a reason to believe that Beijing is lying about the numbers (and not just because Tencent accidentally leaked the real data), this is it.



Breaking: Guangzhou City (population: 14 M) locked down. All residential blocks be isolated from each other. So far around 400 million people locked down in #China to contain #coronavirus. #coronavirusOutbreak Original Chinese official report:https://t.co/emfLIaOLut pic.twitter.com/RmX82iDOEH
— 曾錚 Jennifer Zeng (@jenniferatntd) February 7, 2020

Meanwhile, in the US, the Trump Administration has directed researchers to investigate the 'true origins' of the virus, as 'conspiracy theories' and misinformation spreads online. We can't help but wonder: What if the scientists discover something that the regime in Beijing doesn't want them to see?

白宮要求美國科學家和醫學研究者調查 #新型冠狀病毒 的起源。#武汉肺炎 https://t.co/mZPAYz0K1N
— 曾錚 Jennifer Zeng (@jenniferatntd) February 7, 2020

Elsewhere, Singapore raised its national disease response level to Orange, the second-highest level and the same level from the SARS epidemic, according to the city-state's health ministry. It also confirmed three new coronavirus cases. While investigations are ongoing, none of the three appear to have a history of recent travel to China, suggesting they picked up the virus in Singapore.

'Orange' means the outbreak "is severe and spreads easily from person to person" but "has not spread widely in Singapore and is being contained," according to the Disease Outbreak Response System Condition color-coded framework. Singapore has never invoked its highest level, red, per BBG.

Foreigners are complaining that the new hospitals in Wuhan are merely 'quarantine centers' without any medical resources.

Dear Gov’t of Uganda,

The famous makeshift “hospitalsh the Chinese Gov’t is bragging about are not hospitals, they are quarantine areas where patients are not receiving any treatment at all. Is this the place you’re saying is safer for us ? #EvacuateUgandansInWuhan pic.twitter.com/sLzdUHA24P
— Thomas (@owishemwe) February 7, 2020

Receive a daily recap featuring a curated list of must-read stories.

Yesterday, Beijing argued that the virus outbreak had 'peaked' as they cited a drop in the rate of new infections. However, others have suggested that the rate of new confirmed cases has more to do with Beijing's limited resources.

It's been said by others but I'll say it too:

The way China is reporting almost an identical number of new coronavirus cases each day (approximately 3000) MUST be a reflection of its diagnosis capacity rather than the true caseload, which is likely much worse.
— Mark B. Spiegel (@markbspiegel) February 7, 2020

The WHO said during a press conference on Thursday that it's too early to claim that the outbreak has peaked, even as the outlook for the global economy falls off a cliff.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... virus.html

“Cruise ship with ‘isolated’ Chinese nationals on board is due to dock in Bayonne, New Jersey, after Bahamas trip and sick passengers will be tested for coronavirus

Royal Caribbean cruise ship will have sick passengers tested this morning
At least a dozen Chinese tourists are reportedly in isolation on the ship
There are 12 coronavirus cases in the US, but none in the New York region “
The rate of new infection in Hubei province has dropped to 17% per day. That is the lowest number of new infections since the outbreak started. It was as high as 90% some days. The Quarantine seems to be working
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Re: China's Coronavirus is Much Worse Than You Think

Post by Doc » Fri Feb 07, 2020 7:59 am

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/ ... 35274.html
Grief, anger in China as doctor who warned about coronavirus dies

"Citizens of People's Republic of China have the right to freedom of speech, freedom of assembly, and freedom of press.

'Political resuscitation'

As more people joined the prayer, hoping for a miracle, information started to emerge on how Dr Li's heartbeat had stopped for over three hours and the resuscitation was only to calm the public's rage.

"His condition was critical, and he stopped the heartbeat earlier tonight already, but he was put on intubation and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) just out of pressure from the leaders," a source at Wuhan Central Hospital, who requested to stay anonymous, told Al Jazeera.

Their testimony was later corroborated by a number of posts online, including screenshots of conversations among doctors saying the team only tried to resuscitate him to deflect public anger about this death.


"
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Re: China's Coronavirus is Much Worse Than You Think

Post by Doc » Sat Feb 08, 2020 7:13 am

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as ... story.html
Beijing authorities have said that lying about having contact with someone with coronavirus contacts could be punishable by death.
How about the punishment for government officials that lied about Coronavirus and let the epidemic go out of control? What should it be?
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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