China's Coronavirus is Much Worse Than You Think

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Doc
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Re: China's Coronavirus is Much Worse Than You Think

Post by Doc » Wed Jan 29, 2020 5:20 pm

Doc wrote:
Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:30 am
Sertorio wrote:
Wed Jan 29, 2020 3:50 am
I suggest reading the following:

https://www.asiatimes.com/2020/01/artic ... us-spread/

Australia seems to be doing a great job in finding ways to fight this virus.
Note that the CCP did not turn over samples of the isolated virus to the outside world.

The numbers of infected in Wuhan will tell us in the next few days if the quarantine will work. Look for the rate of new infections there. At the moment it apears to be a straight line. If it starts to decline then either the quarantine is working for the CCP is lying about the numbers.

So far the virus has been largely contained in China. There is an issue with the first 14 days of no symptoms while contagious. If that is true this will be very hard to contain in the long run in the rest of the world. One week from tomorrow will be 14 days since serious action began to be taken to fight it. IF cases start showing up in other countries with no apparent link directly to someone traveling from China that will show that containment for the rest of the world did not work.
Right now the official number is 6165 infected. The numbers for Wuhan and Hubei province will come out in a little while the break even number (assuming the official numbers are not lies) for the transmission rate will be around 8,000.

The numbers for Hubei were 270 confirmed infections on Jan 22 Now they are at 3554 with 125 dead confirmed from coronavirus

This doctor has been doing a pretty good job of explaining on the Pandemic.

“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Sertorio
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Re: China's Coronavirus is Much Worse Than You Think

Post by Sertorio » Thu Jan 30, 2020 4:49 am

While experts across the world search for a vaccine to tackle the dangerous new infection, Russian health bosses have identified a trio of existing medicines to combat 2019-nCoV in adults.

The new coronavirus can be fought with ribavirin, lopinavir/ritonavir and interferon beta-1b, they believe. These drugs are typically used to treat hepatitis C, HIV and multiple sclerosis respectively.

The Ministry of Health advisory not only offers recommendations, but also describes how the treatments work and in what quantities they should be prescribed. The guidelines are intended for doctors in hospitals throughout the country.

One of the drugs recommended, ribavirin, was used in the treatment of the 2003 Chinese SARS outbreak, which infected over 8,000 people and killed 774 across 17 different countries. The new coronavirus has shown a sizeable genetic similarity with SARS, with one sequence comparison showing a match of 79.5%.

The ministry also instructs that, in order to prevent and reduce the severity of symptoms, medication should be consumed within two days of contact with an infected person. Their prevention recommendations also include sanitary and hygiene rules, such as handwashing and wearing protective masks.

https://www.rt.com/russia/479581-russia ... s-vaccine/
Might be worth trying...

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Sertorio
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Re: China's Coronavirus is Much Worse Than You Think

Post by Sertorio » Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:07 am

The biogenetic puzzle

https://www.asiatimes.com/2020/01/artic ... rable-now/

(...)

Apart from crisis management, the speed of the Chinese scientific response has been breathtaking – and obviously not fully appreciated in an environment of Total Information War. Compare the Chinese performance with the American CDC, arguably the top infectious disease research agency in the world, with an $11 billion annual budget and 11,000 employees.

During the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014 – considered a maximum urgency, and facing a virus with a 90% fatality rate – the CDC took no less than two months from getting the first patient sample to identifying the complete genomic sequence. The Chinese did it in a few days.

During the swine flu in the US in 2009 – 55 million infected Americans, 11,000 killed – the CDC took over a month and a half to come up with identification kits.

The Chinese took only one week from the first patient sample to complete, vital identification and sequencing of coronavirus. Right away, they went for publication and deposit in the genomics library for immediate access by the whole planet. Based on this sequence, Chinese biotech companies produced validated essays within a week – also a first.

(...)
One can criticize China in respect of this coronavirus crisis, but maybe one should also recognize the efforts being made to solve it...

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Re: China's Coronavirus is Much Worse Than You Think

Post by Doc » Thu Jan 30, 2020 6:59 am

Sertorio wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:07 am
The biogenetic puzzle

https://www.asiatimes.com/2020/01/artic ... rable-now/

(...)

Apart from crisis management, the speed of the Chinese scientific response has been breathtaking – and obviously not fully appreciated in an environment of Total Information War. Compare the Chinese performance with the American CDC, arguably the top infectious disease research agency in the world, with an $11 billion annual budget and 11,000 employees.

During the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014 – considered a maximum urgency, and facing a virus with a 90% fatality rate – the CDC took no less than two months from getting the first patient sample to identifying the complete genomic sequence. The Chinese did it in a few days.

During the swine flu in the US in 2009 – 55 million infected Americans, 11,000 killed – the CDC took over a month and a half to come up with identification kits.

The Chinese took only one week from the first patient sample to complete, vital identification and sequencing of coronavirus. Right away, they went for publication and deposit in the genomics library for immediate access by the whole planet. Based on this sequence, Chinese biotech companies produced validated essays within a week – also a first.

(...)
One can criticize China in respect of this coronavirus crisis, but maybe one should also recognize the efforts being made to solve it...
China had 7 weeks. The first recognized case was on Dec 1 Which is still impressive in the response time. Yet a failure to notify the larger world and domestic population.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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armchair_pundit
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Re: China's Coronavirus is Much Worse Than You Think

Post by armchair_pundit » Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:47 am


First Case Of Human-To-Human Coronavirus Infection Confirmed In US: Live Updates
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... rder-china

Summary:

First human-to-human transmission confirmed in US
7,921 confirmed cases worldwide, 170 fatalities
South Korea confirms first human-to-human transmission
China reported largest one-day jump in fatalities on Wednesday with
Hong Kong warns of surgical mask shortage
Russia closes border
6,000 quarantined aboard Italian cruise ship
Thailand leads with most cases outside China (14)
Chinese national hospitalized and quarantined in York
Virus arrives in India, Philippines
Air France suspends flights to/from mainland
IMF now monitoring crisis as economic fears grow

* * *

Update (12:40ET): Rumors that surfaced in recent days have been confirmed: the CDC said Thursday afternoon they have confirmed human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus in Chicago - meaning the US has now joined Germany, Japan, South Korea and Thailand in having confirmed human-to-human transmission outside China.

One of the five prior cases confirmed by the CDC apparently managed to pass the virus to her husband. The new patient is the spouse of the woman being treated in Chicago. It appears there are now six cases confirmed in the US.

The risk of infection is low, CDC said, and it's not making recommendations to cancel plans or activities, and doesn't recommend the need to wear facemasks at this time. The CDC still hasn't confirmed whether carriers of the virus are contagious before showing symptoms.

Though the US is already planning to evacuate even more American citizens from Wuhan, The notion that we won't import at least one case of the virus through this program seems unrealistic. Meanwhile, the total number of cases worldwide has eclipsed the total from the SARS outbreak, which lasted for nearly a year.

Stocks legged lower on the headline as investors grappled with the notion that the WHO now has no choice but to declare a global pandemic.

During the SARS outbreak in 2003, there were zero cases of human-to-human transmission in the US.


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Re: China's Coronavirus is Much Worse Than You Think

Post by Doc » Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:10 pm

armchair_pundit wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:47 am

First Case Of Human-To-Human Coronavirus Infection Confirmed In US: Live Updates
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... rder-china

Summary:

First human-to-human transmission confirmed in US
7,921 confirmed cases worldwide, 170 fatalities
South Korea confirms first human-to-human transmission
China reported largest one-day jump in fatalities on Wednesday with
Hong Kong warns of surgical mask shortage
Russia closes border
6,000 quarantined aboard Italian cruise ship
Thailand leads with most cases outside China (14)
Chinese national hospitalized and quarantined in York
Virus arrives in India, Philippines
Air France suspends flights to/from mainland
IMF now monitoring crisis as economic fears grow

* * *

Update (12:40ET): Rumors that surfaced in recent days have been confirmed: the CDC said Thursday afternoon they have confirmed human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus in Chicago - meaning the US has now joined Germany, Japan, South Korea and Thailand in having confirmed human-to-human transmission outside China.

One of the five prior cases confirmed by the CDC apparently managed to pass the virus to her husband. The new patient is the spouse of the woman being treated in Chicago. It appears there are now six cases confirmed in the US.

The risk of infection is low, CDC said, and it's not making recommendations to cancel plans or activities, and doesn't recommend the need to wear facemasks at this time. The CDC still hasn't confirmed whether carriers of the virus are contagious before showing symptoms.

Though the US is already planning to evacuate even more American citizens from Wuhan, The notion that we won't import at least one case of the virus through this program seems unrealistic. Meanwhile, the total number of cases worldwide has eclipsed the total from the SARS outbreak, which lasted for nearly a year.

Stocks legged lower on the headline as investors grappled with the notion that the WHO now has no choice but to declare a global pandemic.

During the SARS outbreak in 2003, there were zero cases of human-to-human transmission in the US.

30+ day projection for the number of people infected by coronavirus at a 30% growth rate per day:
rate.jpg
rate.jpg (116.55 KiB) Viewed 312 times
At a 40% growth rate the number of infected on Feb 27th would be 115 million with 23 million needing care in an ICU. I would guess about 10 times the number of ICU beds in the entire world.

At 30% it would get to 100 million about a week later. with 3 million ICU beds needed needed on the 27th.

So does the CCP decide who gets those beds based on their social credit score? Do people end up rioting in the streets for those beds?
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Re: China's Coronavirus is Much Worse Than You Think

Post by Doc » Thu Jan 30, 2020 4:43 pm

Pray for the people of Wuhan -- New leaked videos

“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Sertorio
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Re: China's Coronavirus is Much Worse Than You Think

Post by Sertorio » Fri Jan 31, 2020 3:52 am

China develops rapid Coronavirus test that works in under 15 MINUTES

Scientists in China have reportedly developed an express test which can detect the 2019-nCoV novel coronavirus in under fifteen minutes, in a major breakthrough which will hopefully help stem the tide of infection.

Experts from a tech company based in Wuxi in eastern China's Jiangsu Province, working with the National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, developed the rapid nucleic test kit in just ten days, according to the Xinhua news agency.

The test takes between eight and 15 minutes to produce a result and is currently being mass-manufactured at a rate of 4,000 kits per day, with the city government in Wuxi exploring efforts to boost production even further.

The first batch of kits has reportedly already been deployed to the frontlines at the epicentre of the outbreak, Wuhan, in Hubei province.

The death toll from the virus continues to rise, as does the rate of infection around the world. On Friday the UK confirmed its first cases of the illness, joining more than 15 other countries around the world with verified instances of the disease.

To date, some 213 have died as a result of coronavirus infection and a further 9,700 have contracted the disease.

https://www.rt.com/news/479705-china-de ... apid-test/

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Re: China's Coronavirus is Much Worse Than You Think

Post by dagbay » Fri Jan 31, 2020 4:55 am

Sertorio wrote:
Fri Jan 31, 2020 3:52 am
China develops rapid Coronavirus test that works in under 15 MINUTES

Scientists in China have reportedly developed an express test which can detect the 2019-nCoV novel coronavirus in under fifteen minutes, in a major breakthrough which will hopefully help stem the tide of infection.

Experts from a tech company based in Wuxi in eastern China's Jiangsu Province, working with the National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, developed the rapid nucleic test kit in just ten days, according to the Xinhua news agency.

The test takes between eight and 15 minutes to produce a result and is currently being mass-manufactured at a rate of 4,000 kits per day, with the city government in Wuxi exploring efforts to boost production even further.

The first batch of kits has reportedly already been deployed to the frontlines at the epicentre of the outbreak, Wuhan, in Hubei province.

The death toll from the virus continues to rise, as does the rate of infection around the world. On Friday the UK confirmed its first cases of the illness, joining more than 15 other countries around the world with verified instances of the disease.

To date, some 213 have died as a result of coronavirus infection and a further 9,700 have contracted the disease.

https://www.rt.com/news/479705-china-de ... apid-test/
So far it loo ks like a bad flu and it's mortality rate is quite low compared to SARS.
I'd rather be diving or flying alas for now I am on terra firma.

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Re: China's Coronavirus is Much Worse Than You Think

Post by Doc » Fri Jan 31, 2020 7:06 am

dagbay wrote:
Fri Jan 31, 2020 4:55 am
Sertorio wrote:
Fri Jan 31, 2020 3:52 am
China develops rapid Coronavirus test that works in under 15 MINUTES

Scientists in China have reportedly developed an express test which can detect the 2019-nCoV novel coronavirus in under fifteen minutes, in a major breakthrough which will hopefully help stem the tide of infection.

Experts from a tech company based in Wuxi in eastern China's Jiangsu Province, working with the National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, developed the rapid nucleic test kit in just ten days, according to the Xinhua news agency.

The test takes between eight and 15 minutes to produce a result and is currently being mass-manufactured at a rate of 4,000 kits per day, with the city government in Wuxi exploring efforts to boost production even further.

The first batch of kits has reportedly already been deployed to the frontlines at the epicentre of the outbreak, Wuhan, in Hubei province.

The death toll from the virus continues to rise, as does the rate of infection around the world. On Friday the UK confirmed its first cases of the illness, joining more than 15 other countries around the world with verified instances of the disease.

To date, some 213 have died as a result of coronavirus infection and a further 9,700 have contracted the disease.

https://www.rt.com/news/479705-china-de ... apid-test/
So far it loo ks like a bad flu and it's mortality rate is quite low compared to SARS.
Unless you are so sick you need ICU care. The mortality rate for those needing ICU is around 15%

The real problem is that about 20% will need to be in ICU from the numbers seen so far. The projections for the number of people infected are bad. There are only so many ICU beds. In China this number will likely be exceeded. If there are not enough beds the mortality rate is going to go up. The condition is the same that kills people with the flu ARDS Acute Repertory Distress Syndrome. It is what my father died of technically. He had cancer and because of the Chemo he got pneumonia. He was on a repertory machine called a B-PAP for a month. I would rather find some nice high bridge to jump off of.

During the Spanish flu outbreak (not exactly the same thing) entire towns came down with the flu at the same time. People were sick in bed unable to get up to get water to drink. There was no one left that could do it for them. Many died of a combination of being sick and being weak from dehydration.

The rate of infection has been around 30% With the lock down of Hubei province the rate of new infection there have fallen to 18% from the numbers last night. If the lock down can be stretched out for three weeks in total there is a chance to contain the coronavirus. It is all about buying time to find solutions.

The problem with the lock down is if the food runs out. Which currently appears to be the case in Wuhan:

https://www.davosman.org/viewtopic.php?p=28424#p28424
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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