The Attack on the Ain al-Asad Base in Iraq

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Doc
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Re: Scorecard of Suleimani + Al Asad episode = 5-2 for Iran

Post by Doc » Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:41 am

Alexis wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:34 am
Doc wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:15 am
I would say the situation is rapidly evolving. This is all yesterday's news. It seem a large portion of the Iranian population is sick and tired of endless war against the West and others.
This was all structural news :)

Not all that is fresh and new is important, no matter how spectacular.

Regarding the recent demonstrations in Iran following the airliner's downing, time will tell if they are a deep seated movement against the regime, or an anger focused at those responsible for the error.

If I was in Trump's shoes, I wouldn't hold too much hope.
It seems to be different this time. Iranians are willing to die to bring change to their country. That hasn't happened since 1979
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Re: The Attack on the Ain al-Asad Base in Iraq

Post by Doc » Mon Jan 13, 2020 8:11 am

https://nypost.com/2020/01/12/the-elite ... an-people/
The elite narrative on Iran brushes aside the fury of the Iranian people

By Post Editorial Board

January 12, 2020 | 8:07pm

In case you missed it, Tehran’s admission that it shot down that civilian Ukrainian plane triggered massive anti-regime protests, complete with fresh denunciations of the late Gen. Qassem Soleimani. Plus, Iran’s only female Olympic medalist just defected, denouncing the regime for its brutal oppression of women.

And you might well have missed either story — because much of the US media is downplaying this news, simply because it doesn’t fit their pre-existing narratives.

It’s not just Trump Derangement Syndrome, but part of the outlook of much of the Western elite, which tends to assume that the West’s past sins are the root of all the world’s evils — and that any anti-Western regime, however oppressive, still has a fundamental legitimacy, and popularity.

Thus, the blatant glossing over, amid all the fallout from the droning of Qassem Soleimani, of the unpopularity of the Iranian regime as well as the perils it poses to its neighbors and the world.

A vast wave of “news analysis,” commentary and even straight reporting suggests that President Trump is to blame not just for Iran’s downing of that plane, but even for the dozens of trampling deaths at Soleimani’s funeral. That’s insane: No matter what the context, both were the result of horrible screw-ups by Iranian officials.

Same for the absurd media treatment of public reactions in Tehran and other Iranian cities after the Soleimani killing — taking the anti-US demonstrations at face value as real signs of public anger, and thus supposedly proof that Trump had rallied Iranians around the government. In fact, they closely resembled the rent-a-mob “fury” the regime has staged for decades.

Such anti-Trump analyses also conveniently ignored the spontaneous celebrations that broke out in Tehran and elsewhere as soon as word broke of Soleimani’s death — genuine public anger at the Iranian government, which also surfaced when the regime admitted the obvious, that Iran’s own “defenses” had shot down the Ukrainian plane.

Because the regime and its supporters have all the guns, we don’t pretend that the huge discontent (also seen in months of massive demonstrations late in 2019) makes it sensible for Washington to put all, or many of, its Iran-policy chips on “regime change.” But it’s even more foolish to act as if that anger doesn’t exist, because it greatly limits the options of Iran’s leaders — and means that, for just one example, killing Soleimani was far less risky that Trump’s critics pretend.
see also
It's just insane to blame Trump for Iran's downing of Ukrainian plane

How broad is this anger — and how extensive the regime’s efforts to conceal it from the world? Consider the letter the Olympian, 21-year-old Kimia Alizadeh posted on Instagram on Saturday to explain her flight to the West, calling herself “one of the millions of oppressed women in Iran who [Iran’s rulers] have been playing with for years.”

“They took me wherever they wanted. I wore whatever they said. Every sentence they ordered me to say, I repeated. Whenever they saw fit, they exploited me,” she wrote.”I wasn’t important to them. None of us mattered to them, we were tools.”

She “didn’t want to sit at the table of hypocrisy, lies, injustice and flattery” any longer, she wrote, nor remain complicit with the regime’s “corruption and lies.” And: “My troubled spirit does not fit with your dirty economic ties and tight political lobbies.”

Apologists for the Obama nuclear deal don’t want to think about this reality, because it begins to expose how unreal the deal’s assumptions always were.

They also don’t want to talk about how the hundreds of billions of dollars the deal meant for Tehran went for military adventurism in Syria and Iraq as well as Lebanon, Gaza and Yemen — not to make Iran a better place. That’s another common theme for Iranian protesters — and more proof that the deal didn’t make the world safer.

“How Trump brought us to the brink of war” is the headline for one major piece still up on The New York Times site — a story that sticks to the delusion-ridden elite understanding of Iran’s relations with its own people, including the refusal to recognize that Iran’s been quietly, carefully at war with America ever since the revolution.

As we say, regime change can’t be the center of US policy on Iran. But that policy is still at its wisest when it sides with the Iranian people — and not with their despised rulers.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Re: The Attack on the Ain al-Asad Base in Iraq

Post by Sertorio » Mon Jan 13, 2020 8:35 am

Milo wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:32 am
Sertorio goes on about war again.
As long as the US and its vassals keep waging war anywhere in the world, I will give my attention to it.

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Re: Scorecard of Suleimani + Al Asad episode = 5-2 for Iran

Post by Sertorio » Mon Jan 13, 2020 8:39 am

Doc wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:41 am
Alexis wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:34 am
Doc wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:15 am
I would say the situation is rapidly evolving. This is all yesterday's news. It seem a large portion of the Iranian population is sick and tired of endless war against the West and others.
This was all structural news :)

Not all that is fresh and new is important, no matter how spectacular.

Regarding the recent demonstrations in Iran following the airliner's downing, time will tell if they are a deep seated movement against the regime, or an anger focused at those responsible for the error.

If I was in Trump's shoes, I wouldn't hold too much hope.
It seems to be different this time. Iranians are willing to die to bring change to their country. That hasn't happened since 1979
Don't hold your breath... The majority of most peoples in the world will stand dictatorships if they see their country being threatened from abroad. As long as the US threatens Iran, Iranians will not overthrow the ayatollahs. So, if you want to save the Iranian regime, just keep sanctioning and threatening it...

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Re: Scorecard of Suleimani + Al Asad episode = 5-2 for Iran

Post by Doc » Mon Jan 13, 2020 10:07 am

Sertorio wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 8:39 am
Doc wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:41 am
Alexis wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:34 am
Doc wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:15 am
I would say the situation is rapidly evolving. This is all yesterday's news. It seem a large portion of the Iranian population is sick and tired of endless war against the West and others.
This was all structural news :)

Not all that is fresh and new is important, no matter how spectacular.

Regarding the recent demonstrations in Iran following the airliner's downing, time will tell if they are a deep seated movement against the regime, or an anger focused at those responsible for the error.

If I was in Trump's shoes, I wouldn't hold too much hope.
It seems to be different this time. Iranians are willing to die to bring change to their country. That hasn't happened since 1979
Don't hold your breath... The majority of most peoples in the world will stand dictatorships if they see their country being threatened from abroad. As long as the US threatens Iran, Iranians will not overthrow the ayatollahs. So, if you want to save the Iranian regime, just keep sanctioning and threatening it...


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dems-s ... lane-crash

Dems silent on Iran protests as demonstrators blame regime, not Trump, for plane crash


Democratic congressional leaders and presidential candidates who were unsparing in their criticism of President Trump for the escalation with Iran over the past two weeks largely have gone silent now that the protests on the streets of Tehran and beyond have turned their rage toward the regime — and not the Trump White House.

Even as videos emerged online Monday that purportedly show Iranian police and security forces firing live ammunition to disperse protesters, so far among the 2020 Democratic candidates only former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., have spoken out in support of the people.

IRANIAN SECURITY FORCES PURPORTEDLY FIRE LIVE AMMUNITION TO DISPERSE PROTESTERS DESPITE TRUMP'S WARNING

The protesters have railed against the government following the shoot-down of a passenger plane that the Iranian government initially denied involvement in — Tehran later admitted they downed the jet in a misfire during attacks against U.S. bases in Iraq, following Trump's takedown of top Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani.

Trump has issued statements supporting the demonstrations, but his political opponents have been almost entirely silent — after earlier criticizing the Soleimani strike and in some cases even faulting Trump for the fatal plane crash.

Journalist Yashar Ali, who is of Iranian descent and has friends and family there, called out the left for being silent when it comes to the protests, in a viral Twitter thread about the situation.

IRANIAN SECURITY FORCES PURPORTEDLY FIRE LIVE AMMUNITION TO DISPERSE PROTESTERS DESPITE TRUMP'S WARNING

“I've gone through some of the most active and prominent liberal Twitter accounts and none of them mentioned the Iran protests today,” Ali tweeted Sunday. “These same people were actively tweeting about wanting to avoid war and attacking Trump for his decision.”

Ali continued, claiming that Trump’s critics have been using the situation in Iran to attack the president.

“In this context, Iranians are being used by certain people on the left (i didn't say all) as a tool to attack President Trump. But these same people don't seem to care to ... support their right to protest?” he said.

Ali implied that because the protesters were criticizing their own leaders and not blaming President Trump, “it wasn’t worth it” for liberals to talk about them.

Biden was the first 2020 Democrat to speak out in support of the protesters.

TRUMP ISSUES WARNING TO IRAN: 'DO NOT KILL YOUR PROTESTERS ... THE USA IS WATCHING'

“[N]one of us should be under any illusions about the Iranian regime, and the Iranian people — like all people everywhere — have the right to peaceful protest. The world should support them,” Biden tweeted, while using the message to take a shot at Trump as well, saying the president’s “reckless policies have needlessly endangered our interests in the Middle East.”

Klobuchar simply tweeted, “People should have the right to peacefully protest in any country, including Iran.”

The rest of the remaining Democratic 2020 presidential primary field, however, has been silent. Politico’s Ryan Lizza noticed the general silence from Democratic candidates on the matter, pointing out how some of them have been known for "championing" democracy in the past (Lizza later posted an update after Klobuchar posted her statement).

Other high-profile Democrats, such as House Majority Leader Rep. Steny Hoyer, D-Md., Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., House Democratic Caucus Chairman Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., and House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Rep. Eliot Engel, D-N.Y., have yet to make any statement regarding the protests.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was asked if she supported the protesters during an interview with ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday, and she responded by claiming that there were “different reasons” for the protests, including opposition to the U.S., despite being informed otherwise.

“The protesters are protesting as I understand, this brand of protesters about the fact that that plane went down and many students were on that plane and these are largely students in the street,” Pelosi said. When host George Stephanopoulos told her that the protestors were demonstrating against their government for lying to them and that they were calling for death to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Pelosi replied, “Well, whatever it is.”

She then went on to cite opposition to the U.S, stating that Iranians had protested against their leadership before, but that they “joined together” against the U.S. after Soleimani’s death, and that “there are different reasons why people are in the street.”

Finally, Pelosi expressed support for the protesters, saying, “Of course we would love to see the aspirations of the people of Iran realized with a better situation there.”

The so-called “Squad” – freshman congresswomen Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., Rashida Tlaib, D-Mich., Ayanna Pressley, D-Mass. and Ilhan Omar, D-Minn. – has refrained from speaking about the protests, though Omar had previously expressed support for the Iranian people after U.S. forces carried out the airstrike that killed Soleimani.

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“This is an opportunity to make sure that there is a face on every single Iranian who will be impacted if we continue to escalate the situation and find ourselves in war,” Omar told a reporter.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Re: The Attack on the Ain al-Asad Base in Iraq

Post by Doc » Mon Jan 13, 2020 10:52 am

“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Re: The Attack on the Ain al-Asad Base in Iraq

Post by Sertorio » Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:24 pm

Doc wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 10:52 am

"...The people do not disrespect the flag of USA and Israel. They say all over Iran: We are not the enemy of the USA and Israel. Our enemy is the people of the Islamic Republic of Iran..."
They say all that? And how many people are saying that? What percentage of the population says that?... Don't be naive, in every country you can find people who say just about anything. The question is knowing how representative they are... I'm sure you will find quite a number of people in the US who say that the Earth is flat...

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Re: The Attack on the Ain al-Asad Base in Iraq

Post by Doc » Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:47 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:24 pm
Doc wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 10:52 am

"...The people do not disrespect the flag of USA and Israel. They say all over Iran: We are not the enemy of the USA and Israel. Our enemy is the people of the Islamic Republic of Iran..."
They say all that? And how many people are saying that? What percentage of the population says that?... Don't be naive, in every country you can find people who say just about anything. The question is knowing how representative they are... I'm sure you will find quite a number of people in the US who say that the Earth is flat...
The same percentage that are willing to risk their lives in the face of police bullets to change the government there.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Re: Reinforcing the Iranian deterrent

Post by neverfail » Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:28 pm

Alexis wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:33 am
Actually, it's far less the size of the blasts than their precision which comes as a reality check regarding Iranian strike capabilities.

Food for thought:
A second point of surprise is that the accuracy of Iranian ballistic missiles seems to be much higher than that expected by the West. Analysis of satellite photos after the attack on the Al Asad base shows that all the missiles hit hangars or crossroads important for the normal operation of the base. It even appears that in two places more than one missile hit the same target. Unless there is extraordinary luck, such a spread of impacts is impossible if the accuracy of Iranian missiles was not less than 10 metres. This type of precision is only possible for a ballistic missile by coupling inertial navigation with satellite positioning guidance, such as the Russian GLONASS or the Chinese BEIDOU.

(...) While these two observations are already sufficiently problematic taken individually, taken together they significantly alter the perception of the balance of forces in the Middle East. Indeed, having a large number of short- and medium-range ballistic and cruise missiles, Iran would be in a position to strike with precision and effectiveness the entire regional strategic infrastructure if it were to be cornered, for example, by an American or Israeli air attack. Even without nuclear weapons, Tehran would thus have sufficient means to destroy all the region's energy production, as well as the main communications, political and military infrastructure within a radius of 2 000 km.

Such a military capability is, in itself, a highly effective deterrent tool, since it would make a potential aggressor face the possible destabilisation of world energy exchanges, with major economic and political risks on a global scale. This may explain in part the radical change in the attitude of the American President towards Tehran following this episode...

Merci pour la traduction, Alexis mon ami. :D

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Re: Reinforcing the Iranian deterrent

Post by Alexis » Tue Jan 14, 2020 2:01 am

neverfail wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:28 pm
Merci pour la traduction, Alexis mon ami. :D
You're welcome :)

But you should actually thank DeepL. I merely changed a couple things, this was essentially an automated online translation.

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