Australian Bushfires

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neverfail
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Re: Australian Bushfires

Post by neverfail » Sat Jan 11, 2020 1:32 am

Doc wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:48 am

Without climate change we would all be dead.
Interesting assertion doc. Could you clarify it?

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Sertorio
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Re: Australian Bushfires

Post by Sertorio » Sat Jan 11, 2020 3:25 am

neverfail wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 1:32 am
Doc wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:48 am

Without climate change we would all be dead.
Interesting assertion doc. Could you clarify it?
I suppose Doc wanted to say that without climate change we would have never existed... :D

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Re: Australian Bushfires

Post by Doc » Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:16 am

neverfail wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 1:32 am
Doc wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:48 am

Without climate change we would all be dead.
Interesting assertion doc. Could you clarify it?
The Mercury has a static climate for example. So do many of the Moons of the Gas Giants. The Climate of Mars is much more static than the Earth's. Initially the earth's climate was devoid of Oxygen. Early life change the atmosphere from CO2 to Oxygen. If the earth's climate is too static life on earth would not be able to moderate it.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

neverfail
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Re: Australian Bushfires

Post by neverfail » Sat Jan 11, 2020 4:05 pm

Doc wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:16 am
The Mercury has a static climate for example. So do many of the Moons of the Gas Giants. The Climate of Mars is much more static than the Earth's. Initially the earth's climate was devoid of Oxygen. Early life change the atmosphere from CO2 to Oxygen. If the earth's climate is too static life on earth would not be able to moderate it.
A very valid point doc which I applaud - though I think that what you describe is more like a biological-chemical change than a proven change in climate. Point accepted nevertheless.

Where did all of that carbon formerly in the earths atmosphere go? Well, it is still with us in the form of

1. limestone (CaCo3) deposits formed as coral reefs in prehistoric tropical seas
2. oil and natural gas deposits - also formed in tropical seas apparently from dead invertebrates.
3. coal deposits - formed from decomposing vegetation after plants had colonized the land.

Peat deposits in various parts of the earth represent future coal beds in their infancy just as coral reefs of today represent future deposits of limestone.

Now guess what? By burning fossil fuels at our current rate far beyond the ability of the world's ecosystem to soak up the excess carbon and convert it into underground stores of carbon (new coal beds and limestone deposits) are we not regressing the earth's atmosphere back into the carbon dioxide rich mix of gases it was before terrestrial fauna evolved on this earth?

Which is why greenhouse gas emissions are a threat to our very existence as a species - not to mention that of every other known species of terrestrial fauna.

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Re: Australian Bushfires

Post by Doc » Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:34 pm

neverfail wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 4:05 pm
Doc wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:16 am
The Mercury has a static climate for example. So do many of the Moons of the Gas Giants. The Climate of Mars is much more static than the Earth's. Initially the earth's climate was devoid of Oxygen. Early life change the atmosphere from CO2 to Oxygen. If the earth's climate is too static life on earth would not be able to moderate it.
A very valid point doc which I applaud - though I think that what you describe is more like a biological-chemical change than a proven change in climate. Point accepted nevertheless.

Where did all of that carbon formerly in the earths atmosphere go? Well, it is still with us in the form of

1. limestone (CaCo3) deposits formed as coral reefs in prehistoric tropical seas
2. oil and natural gas deposits - also formed in tropical seas apparently from dead invertebrates.
3. coal deposits - formed from decomposing vegetation after plants had colonized the land.

Peat deposits in various parts of the earth represent future coal beds in their infancy just as coral reefs of today represent future deposits of limestone.

Now guess what? By burning fossil fuels at our current rate far beyond the ability of the world's ecosystem to soak up the excess carbon and convert it into underground stores of carbon (new coal beds and limestone deposits) are we not regressing the earth's atmosphere back into the carbon dioxide rich mix of gases it was before terrestrial fauna evolved on this earth?

Which is why greenhouse gas emissions are a threat to our very existence as a species - not to mention that of every other known species of terrestrial fauna.
The problem I have with this years fires is that there has been worse years
aussiebushfires.jpg
aussiebushfires.jpg (74.35 KiB) Viewed 655 times

As for CO2 levels they have been much higher in the past

Image


There has historically been much more CO2 in our atmosphere than exists today. For example:

During the Jurassic Period (200 mya), average CO2 concentrations were about 1800 ppm or about 4.7 times higher than today.

The highest concentrations of CO2 during all of the Paleozoic Era occurred during the Cambrian Period, nearly 7000 ppm — about 18 times higher than today.

The Carboniferous Period and the Ordovician Period were the only geological periods during the Paleozoic Era when global temperatures were as low as they are today. To the consternation of global warming proponents, the Late Ordovician Period was also an Ice Age while at the same time CO2 concentrations then were nearly 12 times higher than today — 4400 ppm.

According to greenhouse theory, Earth should have been exceedingly hot. Instead, global temperatures were no warmer than today. Clearly, other factors besides atmospheric carbon influence earth temperatures and global warming.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

neverfail
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Re: Australian Bushfires

Post by neverfail » Sun Jan 12, 2020 1:15 am

Thanks for the interesting graphs Doc.
Doc wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:34 pm


The problem I have with this years fires is that there has been worse years

aussiebushfires.jpg{/quote]
Our current summer bushfire season is far from over yet.

Comparing the Far West bushfire season (1973? '74?) with the current one is misleading because the Far West of NSW is a sparsely populated and sparsely vegetated semi-desert region. While the burnt out acreage might then have been more extensive than now the volume of burnt vegetation would have been only a fraction of that consumed by fire during our current conflagration - likewise property damage would have been relatively small. But the current wildfires have blazed their way through the most heavily forested and wooded regions of Australia where the population density outside of our handfull of big coastal cities is much denser than in the NSW Far West. So the amount of vegetation burnt has been many times greater as has been loss of property and life - both human and animal.

Doc wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:34 pm
As for CO2 levels they have been much higher in the past

Image


There has historically been much more CO2 in our atmosphere than exists today. For example:

During the Jurassic Period (200 mya), average CO2 concentrations were about 1800 ppm or about 4.7 times higher than today.

The highest concentrations of CO2 during all of the Paleozoic Era occurred during the Cambrian Period, nearly 7000 ppm — about 18 times higher than today.

The Carboniferous Period and the Ordovician Period were the only geological periods during the Paleozoic Era when global temperatures were as low as they are today. To the consternation of global warming proponents, the Late Ordovician Period was also an Ice Age while at the same time CO2 concentrations then were nearly 12 times higher than today — 4400 ppm.

According to greenhouse theory, Earth should have been exceedingly hot. Instead, global temperatures were no warmer than today. Clearly, other factors besides atmospheric carbon influence earth temperatures and global warming.
Point above also well made doc.

However, it should be appreciated that our homo-sapiens human species was not around during these remote past ages of higher global temperatures and higher CO2 in air content but (as the above graph reveals) emerged while the global average temperatures and CO2 content of air were/are both at an historical low. Our human metabolism evolved under those benign conditions and are geared up to living in them.

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Re: Australian Bushfires

Post by Doc » Sun Jan 12, 2020 7:05 am

neverfail wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 1:15 am
Thanks for the interesting graphs Doc.
Doc wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:34 pm


The problem I have with this years fires is that there has been worse years

aussiebushfires.jpg{/quote]
Our current summer bushfire season is far from over yet.

Comparing the Far West bushfire season (1973? '74?) with the current one is misleading because the Far West of NSW is a sparsely populated and sparsely vegetated semi-desert region. While the burnt out acreage might then have been more extensive than now the volume of burnt vegetation would have been only a fraction of that consumed by fire during our current conflagration - likewise property damage would have been relatively small. But the current wildfires have blazed their way through the most heavily forested and wooded regions of Australia where the population density outside of our handfull of big coastal cities is much denser than in the NSW Far West. So the amount of vegetation burnt has been many times greater as has been loss of property and life - both human and animal.

{/quote]

I understand. You are saying this is comparing apples to oranges. While a valid point, that is not completely true. Australia is a small continent what effects one part effects other parts. But as to apples and oranges the 74 fires burned larger in an area with mush less fuel to burn. With much less local population to notice. Natural disasters have been getting more and more expensive as time goes by not because the disaster have been getting worst but because there are more people and things to get in the way of them.
BTW In the winter of 74-75 in the eastern US the winter was the mildest I have ever seen here. 50 to 70 degrees for most of the winter. This was due to the prevailing winds coming from the south-southwest. Which was caused by a meandering northern jet stream. Kind of interesting that Western Australia had droughts and fires around the same time.

Now this year:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather- ... end/659224
Winter interrupted by record warmth in Northeast

By Renee Duff, AccuWeather meteorologist

& Kevin Byrne, AccuWeather staff writer

Updated jan. 12, 2020 9:40 AM

In addition to the warmth, a storm will infiltrate the region and spread rain along with some snow and ice in higher elevations.

A number of record highs have been set in the northeastern U.S. on Saturday, and more high temperature records are expected by the time the weekend ends. A surge of springlike warmth has made it feel like anything but the middle of January.

A total of 61 locations across the Ohio Valley and Northeast set new temperature records on Saturday, according to the National Weather Service (NWS). Temperatures soared 15-35 degrees above normal across the region.

That points to the current brush fires in Australia as being cyclica, and world wide due to prevailing wind direction. IE part of normal variation. When the wind blows from one direction it has to blow to somewhere else in the world. You can argue as to why it varies and even be concerned about the cause but there is natural variation. We just don't have enough historical data on all the various local effects to know what the natural variation compasses.
Doc wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:34 pm
As for CO2 levels they have been much higher in the past

Image


There has historically been much more CO2 in our atmosphere than exists today. For example:

During the Jurassic Period (200 mya), average CO2 concentrations were about 1800 ppm or about 4.7 times higher than today.

The highest concentrations of CO2 during all of the Paleozoic Era occurred during the Cambrian Period, nearly 7000 ppm — about 18 times higher than today.

The Carboniferous Period and the Ordovician Period were the only geological periods during the Paleozoic Era when global temperatures were as low as they are today. To the consternation of global warming proponents, the Late Ordovician Period was also an Ice Age while at the same time CO2 concentrations then were nearly 12 times higher than today — 4400 ppm.

According to greenhouse theory, Earth should have been exceedingly hot. Instead, global temperatures were no warmer than today. Clearly, other factors besides atmospheric carbon influence earth temperatures and global warming.
Point above also well made doc.

However, it should be appreciated that our homo-sapiens human species was not around during these remote past ages of higher global temperatures and higher CO2 in air content but (as the above graph reveals) emerged while the global average temperatures and CO2 content of air were/are both at an historical low. Our human metabolism evolved under those benign conditions and are geared up to living in them.
Again all known mass extinction events on earth are due to it getting too cold, not too hot.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Sertorio
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Re: Australian Bushfires

Post by Sertorio » Sun Jan 12, 2020 7:20 am

Doc wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 7:05 am

Again all known mass extinction events on earth are due to it getting too cold, not too hot.
Are you sure?...

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Re: Australian Bushfires

Post by Doc » Sun Jan 12, 2020 10:27 am

Sertorio wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 7:20 am
Doc wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 7:05 am

Again all known mass extinction events on earth are due to it getting too cold, not too hot.
Are you sure?...
Yes. There may have been a gamma ray extinction several 100 millions years ago. Meteors played a part but the biggest long term effect was global winter. But since the earth cooled off from its collision with Theia and the great bombardments there is little evidence that the earth got so hot it was unliveable
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

neverfail
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Re: Australian Bushfires

Post by neverfail » Sun Jan 12, 2020 2:39 pm

Doc wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 10:27 am
Sertorio wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 7:20 am
Doc wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 7:05 am

Again all known mass extinction events on earth are due to it getting too cold, not too hot.
Are you sure?...
Yes. There may have been a gamma ray extinction several 100 millions years ago. Meteors played a part but the biggest long term effect was global winter. But since the earth cooled off from its collision with Theia and the great bombardments there is little evidence that the earth got so hot it was unliveable
That view is far too smug for my liking.

Even if the current spate of global warming does not cause mass extinction as you allege: the change in climate and rainfall patterns; the disruption of agriculture, trade etc resulting from it is likely to make it impossible for planet Earth to sustain its present 7.5 billion plus human population resulting in an unprecedented "cull". Accompanying the cull will of course be attempted mass-migrations of desperate refugee populations; widespread international and domestic conflict as peoples battle over dwindling resources.

The World should enter nothing less than a renewed Dark Ages: the difference being that while the previous Dark Ages were largely confined to Europe in the wake of the collapse of the western Roman Empire (civilization still prospered further east in places like the Byzantine Empire; Persia, India and China); this new Dark Ages is likely to engulf the whole world and last for millennia rather than for just a few centuries.

Already drought prone regions like Australia and Africa's Sahel region are like the global warming equivalent of canaries down the coal mine. But whereas out here in Oz we are presently only battling bushfires, in the Sahel of northern sub-Sahara Africa increasingly unfavourable climatic conditions are already year by year driving out millions of climate change refugees who mainly try to make the desperate trip across the Sahara and the Mediterranean to the promised land of Europe - the most accessible region of the World capable of offering them a livelihood and something of a future. The cull has already begun in one or two regions like that. Try to imagine that multiplied across the face of the Earth.

With 7.5 billion and still counting planet Earth has already been perched on that precipice of catastrophe for years. It won't take much more stress to push it over the edge.

I question just how much we can rely on past historical information on this matter to guide us.

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