Thanksgiving in HK

Discussion of current events
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Milo
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Re: no reason for thanksgiving in HK

Post by Milo » Fri Nov 29, 2019 4:01 pm

neverfail wrote:
Fri Nov 29, 2019 12:33 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Fri Nov 29, 2019 12:25 pm
Doc wrote:
Fri Nov 29, 2019 11:47 am
Sertorio wrote:
Fri Nov 29, 2019 10:27 am
cassowary wrote:
Thu Nov 28, 2019 8:15 pm

A sea of American flags, Sertorio.
If I were the Hong Kong people, the last flag I would hoist would be the American one. It's the surest way to get China to smash the democracy movement in Hong Kong. Any other flag, the Monaco or the Gibraltar ones, for instance, would be a lot wiser...Hong Kong people may be good at making money but they do not seem to be capable of thinking things through... A bit like yourself, Cass...
What they got from it (This is at least the second time they have flown American flags) is a US commitment to end Hong Kong's special financial status with the US should the CCP take Hong Kong by force. Which would cause great damage to China's economy in the long run. Plus if the US did that other countries would follow.
Hong Kong may be useful to China, but it isn't vital. China has Shanghai, which fulfills very much the same functions of Hong Kong.
Good point. The sanctions are directed against Hong Kong, not mainland China. Beijing can afford to let this troublesome enclave wither in the vine.
It's uncharted waters. China was worried about investor confidence before, obviously they are less worried now. Nobody knows how much they are worried about it, including them I imagine.

The Chinese model is a growing economy in exchange for freedom. How much of a hit can they take? How much will the HK movement inspire the mainland? Nobody really knows.

To muddy the waters a bit more:

What is often missed in the western coverage, and I heard this from some Cantonese speakers, is that many southerners find the CCP another manifestation of Manchu domination.

As far as Canada is concerned, the uncertainty around HK returning to Chinese control was a bonanza for us last time and I would expect the same if the CCP gets too heavy handed this time. Perhaps we should root for the CCP!

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cassowary
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Re: Thanksgiving in HK

Post by cassowary » Fri Nov 29, 2019 5:38 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Fri Nov 29, 2019 10:27 am
cassowary wrote:
Thu Nov 28, 2019 8:15 pm

A sea of American flags, Sertorio.
If I were the Hong Kong people, the last flag I would hoist would be the American one. It's the surest way to get China to smash the democracy movement in Hong Kong. Any other flag, the Monaco or the Gibraltar ones, for instance, would be a lot wiser...Hong Kong people may be good at making money but they do not seem to be capable of thinking things through... A bit like yourself, Cass...
HK people are quite similar to Singaporeans - kind of like Australians and Kiwis. But we are also business rivals. Both think they are better than the other. Both are majority Chinese and established by the British. Both are rich and obsessed with making money. Both don’t like Socialism/Communism.

Flying the American flag won the sympathy of America. They got two bills that protect HK from China.

China will have to think twice before invading. HK cannot be replaced by Shanghai. HK has rule of law which the rest of China does not.
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neverfail
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Re: Thanksgiving in HK

Post by neverfail » Fri Nov 29, 2019 8:55 pm

cassowary wrote:
Fri Nov 29, 2019 5:38 pm

Flying the American flag won the sympathy of America. They got two bills that protect HK from China.
Protect? It seems to me that both bills allow sanctions to be imposed on Hong Kong rather than on the PRC. Not my idea of protection.
cassowary wrote:
Fri Nov 29, 2019 5:38 pm
China will have to think twice before invading. HK cannot be replaced by Shanghai. HK has rule of law which the rest of China does not.
Even without the benefit of the rule of (inherited English common) law from what I hear Shanghai is doing rather well for itself anyhow.

As I see it these demonstrations, while an embarrassment for Beijing, that it all they are - not a threat. From what I understand mainland Chinese are utterly unsympathetic to the HK protestors and cannot even understand what they are going on about:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/01/busi ... tests.html

Independent polling isn’t allowed in China, so judging public attitudes toward Hong Kong is largely guesswork. But among the educated Chinese I know, the ones who travel and can see the global internet, a large number believe the protesters are wasting their time. They should instead be working to rebuild Hong Kong, they say, a city they see as a onetime beacon of prosperity that is losing its promise.

Their views suggest a hard Chinese line against Hong Kong that goes beyond propaganda. It shows a fundamental shift in how many people in China see the city — and, by extension, how they see their own country. And it reflects a deeply rooted belief in the success of what many call the China Model: economic growth at the cost of individual rights.

The Communist Party has long pushed the Chinese people to look at the world through the lens of economic interests, and skeptical attitudes toward the Hong Kong protests show it has taken firm root. Freedom can’t fill stomachs, this thinking goes. And individual rights of the kind that people in Hong Kong enjoy — to challenge the government in the press, in the courts and on the streets — would lead to chaos in China, bringing back poverty and hunger.
I do not believe that the PRC will send the PLA in to crush those protests as they seem to be only doing harm to the economic prospects of the city semi-state. So the PRC government can afford to wait. Time in not on the side of the demonstrators.

Wake up, Cassowary! Those two bills are nothing but "feel good" stuff by the Americans to enable themselves to feel important.

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cassowary
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Re: Thanksgiving in HK

Post by cassowary » Sat Nov 30, 2019 1:08 am

neverfail wrote:
Fri Nov 29, 2019 8:55 pm
cassowary wrote:
Fri Nov 29, 2019 5:38 pm

Flying the American flag won the sympathy of America. They got two bills that protect HK from China.
Protect? It seems to me that both bills allow sanctions to be imposed on Hong Kong rather than on the PRC. Not my idea of protection.
cassowary wrote:
Fri Nov 29, 2019 5:38 pm
China will have to think twice before invading. HK cannot be replaced by Shanghai. HK has rule of law which the rest of China does not.
Even without the benefit of the rule of (inherited English common) law from what I hear Shanghai is doing rather well for itself anyhow.

As I see it these demonstrations, while an embarrassment for Beijing, that it all they are - not a threat. From what I understand mainland Chinese are utterly unsympathetic to the HK protestors and cannot even understand what they are going on about:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/01/busi ... tests.html

Independent polling isn’t allowed in China, so judging public attitudes toward Hong Kong is largely guesswork. But among the educated Chinese I know, the ones who travel and can see the global internet, a large number believe the protesters are wasting their time. They should instead be working to rebuild Hong Kong, they say, a city they see as a onetime beacon of prosperity that is losing its promise.

Their views suggest a hard Chinese line against Hong Kong that goes beyond propaganda. It shows a fundamental shift in how many people in China see the city — and, by extension, how they see their own country. And it reflects a deeply rooted belief in the success of what many call the China Model: economic growth at the cost of individual rights.

The Communist Party has long pushed the Chinese people to look at the world through the lens of economic interests, and skeptical attitudes toward the Hong Kong protests show it has taken firm root. Freedom can’t fill stomachs, this thinking goes. And individual rights of the kind that people in Hong Kong enjoy — to challenge the government in the press, in the courts and on the streets — would lead to chaos in China, bringing back poverty and hunger.
I do not believe that the PRC will send the PLA in to crush those protests as they seem to be only doing harm to the economic prospects of the city semi-state. So the PRC government can afford to wait. Time in not on the side of the demonstrators.

Wake up, Cassowary! Those two bills are nothing but "feel good" stuff by the Americans to enable themselves to feel important.
HK cannot easily be replaced by Shanghai or any other Chinese city. That's because of the confidence the international business community has in HK thanks to its legal system and rule of law.

HK is irreplaceable for China
Hong Kong has six freedoms other cities in China don’t have. Four of these, like in the European Union, are freedom of movement of goods, people, services and capital. The others are the rule of law (as interpreted by a judiciary independent of the government) and freedom of speech.
As a result of its independent judiciary, businessmen have confidence that the law will be impartially applied. That is why they prefer to do business there.
Money flows freely across our borders – and into the mainland, which remains largely closed to protect the yuan. In the last nine years (according to my friends at Natixis Asia Research), Hong Kong accounted for 73 per cent of the mainland’s overseas initial public offerings and 60 per cent of its overseas bonds.

No less than 64 per cent of the mainland’s inward foreign direct investment and 65 per cent of its outward foreign direct investment was booked in Hong Kong. Chinese banks, which are now worth US$1.2 trillion, hold overseas assets concentrated in Hong Kong.
So much of China's businesses are done in HK. You have to ask why all that business done did not take place in another Chinese city, like say Shenzhen. It is all because people have confidence of HK's rule of law and its impartial judiciary. You don't have that in China. So if the US should declare that HK is now just another Chinese city, China will get hurt. (One of the two bills require the Sec of State to make an annual assessment.) But of course the Hongkees will also get hurt.

But judging from the grateful reaction on Thanksgiving for Trump signing the bill into law, the HK people feel that it will offer them some protection. They know better than you do.
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Sertorio
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Re: Thanksgiving in HK

Post by Sertorio » Sat Nov 30, 2019 4:12 am

cassowary wrote:
Fri Nov 29, 2019 5:38 pm

Flying the American flag won the sympathy of America. They got two bills that protect HK from China.
Nothing nor no one could "protect" Hong Kong from China, if China wanted to take over Hong Kong completely. The only thing that can protect Hong Kong is China's self-restraint.

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cassowary
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Re: Thanksgiving in HK

Post by cassowary » Sat Nov 30, 2019 5:44 am

Sertorio wrote:
Sat Nov 30, 2019 4:12 am
cassowary wrote:
Fri Nov 29, 2019 5:38 pm

Flying the American flag won the sympathy of America. They got two bills that protect HK from China.
Nothing nor no one could "protect" Hong Kong from China, if China wanted to take over Hong Kong completely. The only thing that can protect Hong Kong is China's self-restraint.
One of the bills tell China that HK will lose its privileged position if it tampers with its autonomy which will hurt China's economy. This reinforces China's self restraint.
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neverfail
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Re: Thanksgiving in HK

Post by neverfail » Sat Nov 30, 2019 12:44 pm

cassowary wrote:
Sat Nov 30, 2019 1:08 am

HK cannot easily be replaced by Shanghai or any other Chinese city. That's because of the confidence the international business community has in HK thanks to its legal system and rule of law.

HK is irreplaceable for China
Hong Kong has six freedoms other cities in China don’t have. Four of these, like in the European Union, are freedom of movement of goods, people, services and capital. The others are the rule of law (as interpreted by a judiciary independent of the government) and freedom of speech.
As a result of its independent judiciary, businessmen have confidence that the law will be impartially applied. That is why they prefer to do business there.
Money flows freely across our borders – and into the mainland, which remains largely closed to protect the yuan. In the last nine years (according to my friends at Natixis Asia Research), Hong Kong accounted for 73 per cent of the mainland’s overseas initial public offerings and 60 per cent of its overseas bonds.

No less than 64 per cent of the mainland’s inward foreign direct investment and 65 per cent of its outward foreign direct investment was booked in Hong Kong. Chinese banks, which are now worth US$1.2 trillion, hold overseas assets concentrated in Hong Kong.
So much of China's businesses are done in HK. You have to ask why all that business done did not take place in another Chinese city, like say Shenzhen. It is all because people have confidence of HK's rule of law and its impartial judiciary. You don't have that in China. So if the US should declare that HK is now just another Chinese city, China will get hurt. (One of the two bills require the Sec of State to make an annual assessment.) But of course the Hongkees will also get hurt.

But judging from the grateful reaction on Thanksgiving for Trump signing the bill into law, the HK people feel that it will offer them some protection. They know better than you do.
I commend you Cassowary for prosecuting a credible case for HK. Alas Cass, you may be dwelling on a fading glory.

The PRC government has already had months to send in the PLA for a "robust" crackdown on the demonstrators yet has chosen not to do so. While Beijing huffs and puffs about it (as one might expect) the fact that mainland China has not come down hard but has left it to the HK government confirms my suspicion that the PRC government does not consider the demonstrations enough of an embarrassment to make it worth their wile to send in the troops - given the likely negative side effects that would ensue.

So that (sort of) makes those two bills recently signed into effect by President Trump rather redundant, don't you think? A "feel good" for the HK demonstrators as much as for the US public.
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You would be aware of course that Hong Kong, like Singapore, has recently lapsed into recession? While the main cause would surely be collateral damage from Trump's trade war the uncertainty brought on by the demonstrations and their stand-off with the government could not have helped. The longer this situation remains unresolved logically the longer it will take for HK to recover its reputation as a "safe" place to do business.

Is it really necessary for the PRC to have this island of commercial sanity right on its doorstep when it has the option of doing then same sort of business via Singapore?

Finally, you have not responded to my revelation of the fact that on mainland China public opinion has absolutely no use for the Hong Kong's demonstrators, their aims and objectives. This implies that you agree with me now that your old hopes of the unrest in HK spreading to the mainland are nought but an exercise in wishful thinking. If I have achieved that much then my efforts at keyboarding have not been in vain. :D

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cassowary
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Re: Thanksgiving in HK

Post by cassowary » Sat Nov 30, 2019 6:35 pm

Yes I agree that the mainlanders so far have not supported the Hongkee demonstrators. Their access to news is heavily censored. As I pointed out, the flying of the US flag, while winning sympathy from the Americans, turns the mainlanders off. That is why I recommended that the Hongkees fly the Chinese flag as well and call for democracy in China. This is to let the mainlanders know they are fighting for them as well.

HK is tiny. They can’t win unless the mainland becomes a democracy as well. That should be the goal. That’s what I said before.

.............................................................................................................

Singapore will benefit if Xi sent in the tanks. Business will roll into Singapore. While we are rivals, I don’t wish that happening on the Hongkees.
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neverfail
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Re: Thanksgiving in HK

Post by neverfail » Sun Dec 01, 2019 3:36 am

cassowary wrote:
Sat Nov 30, 2019 6:35 pm
Yes I agree that the mainlanders so far have not supported the Hongkee demonstrators. Their access to news is heavily censored. As I pointed out, the flying of the US flag, while winning sympathy from the Americans, turns the mainlanders off. That is why I recommended that the Hongkees fly the Chinese flag as well and call for democracy in China. This is to let the mainlanders know they are fighting for them as well.

HK is tiny. They can’t win unless the mainland becomes a democracy as well. That should be the goal. That’s what I said before.
Then HK has lost absolutely.

For reasons that I have already stated in earlier posts with appropriate links and quotes: on the China mainland they are not in the least interested in putting their lives and fortunes at risk in a futile bid to persuade the Communist Party to relinquish absolute power.

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cassowary
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Re: Thanksgiving in HK

Post by cassowary » Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:04 am

neverfail wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 3:36 am
cassowary wrote:
Sat Nov 30, 2019 6:35 pm
Yes I agree that the mainlanders so far have not supported the Hongkee demonstrators. Their access to news is heavily censored. As I pointed out, the flying of the US flag, while winning sympathy from the Americans, turns the mainlanders off. That is why I recommended that the Hongkees fly the Chinese flag as well and call for democracy in China. This is to let the mainlanders know they are fighting for them as well.

HK is tiny. They can’t win unless the mainland becomes a democracy as well. That should be the goal. That’s what I said before.
Then HK has lost absolutely.

For reasons that I have already stated in earlier posts with appropriate links and quotes: on the China mainland they are not in the least interested in putting their lives and fortunes at risk in a futile bid to persuade the Communist Party to relinquish absolute power.
At the moment, no. But the tide of history is not in favor of the CCP. In Europe, all the communist parties lost power. Apart from Russia, Sertorio's favorite country, Eastern Europe are democracies. In Asia, China's most of China's neighbors are democracies - Mongolia, S Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines etc.

It is a matter of time before the CCP collapses. All it takes is an economic crisis for the CCP to lose legitimacy in the eyes of the Chinese people.

What I want to see is that more companies move out of China and into SE Asia. This is already happening.
The pace of companies moving production out of China is accelerating as more than 50 multinationals from Apple to Nintendo to Dell are rushing to escape the punitive tariffs placed by the U.S., according to the Nikkei Asian review.

The trade war between the U.S. and China has dragged on for more than a year with 25% tariffs placed on $200 billion of Chinese goods. President Donald Trump is still threatening to slap duties on another $325 billion of goods. In wake of the intensifying battle, more and more companies announced plans or are considering shifting manufacturing from China.
They are shifting out of China and into SE Asia and India. The supply chain is being restructured. I suspect that this is what Trump really wants and not his publicly claimed aim to reduce the trade deficit.

You see, the US and China are in a economic war. This is better than a shooting war. But it can also decimate China's economy. China still has state owned enterprises which are of course losing money. (Sertorio, take note. Publicly owned enterprises which Communists advocate don't work.)

Shutting them down will result in massive unemployment. So China subsidized them with the money they earned through their exports. Their internal problems have made Xi behave the instinctive way a totalitarian Marxist does - tighter control of everything. Actually, its the opposite that will solve his problems - more liberalization of the economy.

Something has got to give. I just don't know when.
Last edited by cassowary on Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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