Global recession coming?

Discussion of current events
neverfail
Posts: 3974
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2016 3:47 am
Location: Singapore

Re: Global recession coming? It will bring about a huge global geopolitical shift.

Post by neverfail » Sat Sep 07, 2019 3:32 pm

Milo wrote:
Sat Sep 07, 2019 9:46 am
neverfail wrote:
Sat Sep 07, 2019 4:31 am
Last time (2008 - post GFC) only the USA (along with economic appendage/dependency Canada) plus Europe plunged into recession. Which means that only about half of the World suffered recession and it was overwhelmingly a Western phenomenon. What saved the others? A timely stimulus package implemented by the PRC government kept the Chinese economy buoyant along with virtually every country on the western side of the pacific Ocean that had significant trading/commercial ties with the PRC.

I believe that it was for this reason that Japan and South Korea stayed out of recession. Likewise India and the ASEAN bloc of south east Asian countries. My own country also as much because of the flow-on effects of the PRC stimulus package as because of our own government's.

That was back in 2008 and the years immediately after. I doubt very much whether the PRC could pull the same rabbit out of the hat a second time around.

If it can it will only convince the Chinese public and those of quite a few other countries that democracy brings about nothing but economic instability and therefore the PRC way with its record of steady growth is best.
Canada was not hit as hard as America because we still had some banking oversight.
So I have heard Milo. A sound, regulated banking sector just like ours. Not a single bank closure or bank bailout. Were it not for the high exposure to cross-border trade with the US Canada might have avoided recession altogether.

User avatar
Doc
Posts: 3328
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 7:09 pm
Location: Cradle To Grave

Re: Global recession coming? It will bring about a huge global geopolitical shift.

Post by Doc » Sat Sep 07, 2019 3:42 pm

neverfail wrote:
Sat Sep 07, 2019 4:31 am
Last time (2008 - post GFC) only the USA (along with economic appendage/dependency Canada) plus Europe plunged into recession. Which means that only about half of the World suffered recession and it was overwhelmingly a Western phenomenon. What saved the others? A timely stimulus package implemented by the PRC government kept the Chinese economy buoyant along with virtually every country on the western side of the pacific Ocean that had significant trading/commercial ties with the PRC.

I believe that it was for this reason that Japan and South Korea stayed out of recession. Likewise India and the ASEAN bloc of south east Asian countries. My own country also as much because of the flow-on effects of the PRC stimulus package as because of our own government's.

That was back in 2008 and the years immediately after. I doubt very much whether the PRC could pull the same rabbit out of the hat a second time around.

If it can it will only convince the Chinese public and those of quite a few other countries that democracy brings about nothing but economic instability and therefore the PRC way with its record of steady growth is best.
Or as J. Stalin said "No people No problem"

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

The Chinese banking system was not open to the US and VS versa. Today the CCP seems rather desperate to get the western banks vested in its banking system. Now I wonder why that is? ;)
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

neverfail
Posts: 3974
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2016 3:47 am
Location: Singapore

Re: Global recession coming? It will bring about a huge global geopolitical shift.

Post by neverfail » Sat Sep 07, 2019 3:46 pm

Doc wrote:
Sat Sep 07, 2019 3:42 pm

The Chinese banking system was not open to the US and VS versa.
So what?
Doc wrote:
Sat Sep 07, 2019 3:42 pm
Today the CCP seems rather desperate to get the western banks vested in its banking system. Now I wonder why that is? ;)
Evidence?

neverfail
Posts: 3974
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2016 3:47 am
Location: Singapore

Re: Global recession coming?

Post by neverfail » Sat Sep 07, 2019 4:49 pm

It might amuse to know that from 2008 to 2013 while the USA and Europe were mired in recession Australia was enjoying an economic boom.

The PRC stimulus package was so effective that PRC demand for imported raw materials rose considerably. With increased exports at higher prices it suddenly became lucrative to invest in Australian mining and gas.

In addition, China's demand for imports also favorably effected the fortunes of its industrialized near neighbors Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. As though China's demand were not enough by itself Australian exports also got secondary mileage out of increased demand from these as well.

The PRC kept approx half the World out of recession. As surely as US fiscal and regulatory improvidence dragged the other half down into recession.

If the coming recession once again brings to light more abuses like the ones exposed by the 2008 GFC as I anticipate then it is possible, even probable, that the PRC will wax while the USA will wane just as before.

User avatar
Doc
Posts: 3328
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 7:09 pm
Location: Cradle To Grave

Re: Global recession coming? It will bring about a huge global geopolitical shift.

Post by Doc » Sat Sep 07, 2019 7:01 pm

neverfail wrote:
Sat Sep 07, 2019 3:46 pm
Doc wrote:
Sat Sep 07, 2019 3:42 pm

The Chinese banking system was not open to the US and VS versa.
So what?
They are quarantined from each other in 2008. The US BTW lent out about a Trillion dollars during that crisis. The CCP literally told Chinese companies not to give out credit in the west during the crisis. The claims in the article are ridiculous.
Doc wrote:
Sat Sep 07, 2019 3:42 pm
Today the CCP seems rather desperate to get the western banks vested in its banking system. Now I wonder why that is? ;)
Evidence?
https://money.cnn.com/2017/11/10/news/e ... index.html

China opens up its finance industry to the world



https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKCN1SX0QT

China's Baoshang Bank takeover raises contagion fears


What's more I believe it was in 2000 that 1 Trillion Yuan were in circulation Today that number is 30 Trillion Yuan. That is how the CCP has managed to devalue Chinese currency. The Chinese people have hedged by buying housing property. Property that is very soddenly constructed.




The CCP has built a house of cards. Actually they would have been better off in the long run had they literally built a house of cards.


“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

neverfail
Posts: 3974
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2016 3:47 am
Location: Singapore

Re: Global recession coming? It will bring about a huge global geopolitical shift.

Post by neverfail » Sun Sep 08, 2019 2:51 am

Doc wrote:
Sat Sep 07, 2019 7:01 pm
neverfail wrote:
Sat Sep 07, 2019 3:46 pm
Doc wrote:
Sat Sep 07, 2019 3:42 pm

The Chinese banking system was not open to the US and VS versa.
So what?
They are quarantined from each other in 2008. The US BTW lent out about a Trillion dollars during that crisis. The CCP literally told Chinese companies not to give out credit in the west during the crisis. The claims in the article are ridiculous.
Doc wrote:
Sat Sep 07, 2019 3:42 pm
Today the CCP seems rather desperate to get the western banks vested in its banking system. Now I wonder why that is? ;)
Evidence?
https://money.cnn.com/2017/11/10/news/e ... index.html

China opens up its finance industry to the world



https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKCN1SX0QT

China's Baoshang Bank takeover raises contagion fears


What's more I believe it was in 2000 that 1 Trillion Yuan were in circulation Today that number is 30 Trillion Yuan. That is how the CCP has managed to devalue Chinese currency. The Chinese people have hedged by buying housing property. Property that is very soddenly constructed.




The CCP has built a house of cards. Actually they would have been better off in the long run had they literally built a house of cards.


Even in the PRC they are not immune from making mistakes.

Inappropriate response to my earlier post that made the point that PRC policy kept both China and its chief Asia-Pacific trading partners solvent in the aftermath of the GFC recession that began in 2008.

The fact that US interests are now openly considering investing in PRC private banking (in apparent contradiction of the sound and fury of Trump's anti-PRC tariff campaign) I would consider to be testimony to the strength of the PRC economy and confidence it it's future. It also implies that the Trump tariff campaign on Chinese goods imported into the USA has failed in its objective. The market has spoken up and said so.

Not a sign of PRC desperation at all.

Beijing knows how to play its cards astutely and well.

User avatar
Doc
Posts: 3328
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 7:09 pm
Location: Cradle To Grave

Re: Global recession coming? It will bring about a huge global geopolitical shift.

Post by Doc » Sun Sep 08, 2019 11:17 am

neverfail wrote:
Sun Sep 08, 2019 2:51 am
Even in the PRC they are not immune from making mistakes.

Inappropriate response to my earlier post that made the point that PRC policy kept both China and its chief Asia-Pacific trading partners solvent in the aftermath of the GFC recession that began in 2008.

The fact that US interests are now openly considering investing in PRC private banking (in apparent contradiction of the sound and fury of Trump's anti-PRC tariff campaign) I would consider to be testimony to the strength of the PRC economy and confidence it it's future. It also implies that the Trump tariff campaign on Chinese goods imported into the USA has failed in its objective. The market has spoken up and said so.

Not a sign of PRC desperation at all.

Beijing knows how to play its cards astutely and well.
You got it backwards US interests are getting out of China. The financial sector in particular isn't going in. They can see there is massive contagion and not much on the up side.

Even the CCP most likely does not have much a future. They want a totalitarian state like none this world has ever seen outside of the book 1984.

But apparently the CCP has played its propaganda quite well.

“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

neverfail
Posts: 3974
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2016 3:47 am
Location: Singapore

Re: Global recession coming? It will bring about a huge global geopolitical shift.

Post by neverfail » Sun Sep 08, 2019 4:52 pm

Doc wrote:
Sun Sep 08, 2019 11:17 am


You got it backwards US interests are getting out of China. The financial sector in particular isn't going in. They can see there is massive contagion and not much on the up side.
https://money.cnn.com/2017/11/10/news/e ... index.html

You may be right there doc. I checked out the above link (provided by you) again and had not noticed earlier that the article contained is over 2 years old. Outdated information. My oversight!

However, it does not alter the fact that from 2008 onward the PRC saved itself and its regional trading partners from plunging into recession while the USA led approx. the other half of the World (it's own economic sphere of influence) down into just that. Though for the PRC that might now be a fading past glory of receding relevance with the passage of time I cannot understand why you keep on resisting acceptance of that significant bit of historical information.

(Is affronted national pride the reason for this apparent state of denial?)

Jim the Moron
Posts: 1536
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 9:51 pm

Re: Global recession coming?

Post by Jim the Moron » Mon Sep 09, 2019 6:25 am

"US interests are getting out of China."

neverfail
Posts: 3974
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2016 3:47 am
Location: Singapore

Re: Global recession coming?

Post by neverfail » Mon Sep 09, 2019 6:17 pm

Jim the Moron wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 6:25 am
"US interests are getting out of China."
Due to political pressure?

Well, others, not under such pressure from their home governments seem to be taking up the slack:

https://en.portal.santandertrade.com/es ... investment

Post Reply