Global recession coming?

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cassowary
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Re: Global recession coming?

Post by cassowary » Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:41 pm

neverfail wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:51 pm
cassowary wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:11 pm
neverfail wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:40 am
cassowary wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:19 am
neverfail wrote:
Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:29 pm
cassowary wrote:
Mon Aug 26, 2019 6:26 pm
This Yuan devaluation strategy has its disadvantage too - capital flight. Why invest in China if it’s currency is going to devalue?
A very valid question, Cass.

The time to get your money out of China would be BEFORE the anticipated devaluation when you could get more US dollars (or of any other freely exchangeable currency) for your Yuan. If you fail to do so then tough luck!

After devaluation can be a different story. As long as the punters are convinced there will not be further devaluation anytime soon it then becomes a buyers' market for anyone looking to snap up cheapened Chinese assets.

If Beijing goes in for repeat devaluations of their Yuan in response to Trumps serial tariff increases then it will destroy investor's confidence to the point where no one will want to invest. With the PRC banks allegedly burdened with non-sustainable debts it is likely to topple the PRC over into a full blown fiscal/banking crisis with unpredictable but unpleasant consequences.
That is probably what Xi is afraid of. China has an opague financial system with shadow banking. I don't understand how it all works. If there is a financial crash, the CCP is in trouble. It will lose its legitimacy. the only legitimacy the CCP has is that it is able to improve the living standards of the people. It has never known a recession in the past 30 years and so a recession will come to a shock to the Chinese people.

I won't be unhappy to see this happen if it sweeps away the CCP.
But think about of the millions, probably even tens of millions, of deaths that will accompany such an event. Would you wish such a fate on your ancestral homeland Cass?
Why would millions die? Did millions die in 2008 when we had the GFC in 2008?
I am not talking about the recession but the sweeping away of the CCP that you forecast shall come about in its wake. If you believe that that will be accomplished peacefully, without undue struggle and stress, then you must be very ignorant of China's long and sorry history of regime change violence.

This being China they do it, like they do so much else, on a massive scale when it happens.

As the saying goes: sometimes the cure is worse than the disease.
What makes you think that will happen too? The USSR and other Communist ruled states in the East Europe fell. Power was transferred to more democratic regimes without significant bloodshed. Why should that happen in China? The China of today is different from the China of feudal times. In recent times, dictatorial regimes in Asia have changed hands without much bloodletting. Eg People's power in Philippines got rid of Marcos. The June Struggle of mass protests in S Korea led to democracy in South Korea.

As for Taiwan, a Chinese majority state, Chiang Kai Shek's son and successor eased up authoritarian control and gradually introduced democracy. In Singapore, we always had elections even during LKY's day. But his successors gave more freedom and at some point we crossed the line between LKY's faux democracy to a real one. In none of these four Asian states do we see millions dying as you predict.
The Imp :D

neverfail
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Re: Global recession coming?

Post by neverfail » Wed Aug 28, 2019 3:58 am

cassowary wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:41 pm

What makes you think that will happen too? The USSR and other Communist ruled states in the East Europe fell. Power was transferred to more democratic regimes without significant bloodshed. Why should that happen in China? The China of today is different from the China of feudal times. In recent times, dictatorial regimes in Asia have changed hands without much bloodletting. Eg People's power in Philippines got rid of Marcos. The June Struggle of mass protests in S Korea led to democracy in South Korea.

As for Taiwan, a Chinese majority state, Chiang Kai Shek's son and successor eased up authoritarian control and gradually introduced democracy. In Singapore, we always had elections even during LKY's day. But his successors gave more freedom and at some point we crossed the line between LKY's faux democracy to a real one. In none of these four Asian states do we see millions dying as you predict.
The standard model for things to come? One shoe size fits all pairs of feet once again Cass? You are as bad as Marx ever was.

Live in a state of false optimism and suffer repeat disappointment.

The case of China is like none of these other, above mentioned places. Their recent histories provide no reliable guide as to what might happen when and if the CCP finally loses its grip.

I have given my assessment. You can take it or leave it!

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cassowary
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Re: Global recession coming?

Post by cassowary » Wed Aug 28, 2019 7:08 am

Sertorio wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:44 am
neverfail wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:40 am
cassowary wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:19 am
neverfail wrote:
Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:29 pm
cassowary wrote:
Mon Aug 26, 2019 6:26 pm
This Yuan devaluation strategy has its disadvantage too - capital flight. Why invest in China if it’s currency is going to devalue?
A very valid question, Cass.

The time to get your money out of China would be BEFORE the anticipated devaluation when you could get more US dollars (or of any other freely exchangeable currency) for your Yuan. If you fail to do so then tough luck!

After devaluation can be a different story. As long as the punters are convinced there will not be further devaluation anytime soon it then becomes a buyers' market for anyone looking to snap up cheapened Chinese assets.

If Beijing goes in for repeat devaluations of their Yuan in response to Trumps serial tariff increases then it will destroy investor's confidence to the point where no one will want to invest. With the PRC banks allegedly burdened with non-sustainable debts it is likely to topple the PRC over into a full blown fiscal/banking crisis with unpredictable but unpleasant consequences.
That is probably what Xi is afraid of. China has an opague financial system with shadow banking. I don't understand how it all works. If there is a financial crash, the CCP is in trouble. It will lose its legitimacy. the only legitimacy the CCP has is that it is able to improve the living standards of the people. It has never known a recession in the past 30 years and so a recession will come to a shock to the Chinese people.

I won't be unhappy to see this happen if it sweeps away the CCP.
But think about of the millions, probably even tens of millions, of deaths that will accompany such an event. Would you wish such a fate on your ancestral homeland Cass?
Cass doesn't care about people, he cares about the victory of his rotten ideology...
It is the Socialists/Communists who don't care about people. 95 million died because of Communism. Both of you obviously don't care about the persecuted Falungong, Christians and Muslims languishing in jail. Where do you think the organs for transplant come from?

The two of you value Socialism (even in the diluted version that is China's today) more than freedom and democracy. That is why you don't want the CCP to be swept away. That is also why Socialists/communists are still such dangerous people.
The Imp :D

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cassowary
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Sanders is one of the dangerous ones

Post by cassowary » Wed Aug 28, 2019 7:16 am

Bernie Sanders’ Red Roots Are Starting To Show
2015 Sanders is also inconsistent with the Sanders of spring 2019, who, according to People’s World, which claims to be the “voice for progressive change and socialism” in America, “will propose workers take ownership of individual plants and businesses, removing them from the hands of the bosses and financiers who back them.”
The Imp :D

neverfail
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Re: Global recession coming?

Post by neverfail » Wed Aug 28, 2019 3:50 pm

cassowary wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 7:08 am
Sertorio wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:44 am


Cass doesn't care about people, he cares about the victory of his rotten ideology...
It is the Socialists/Communists who don't care about people. 95 million died because of Communism. Both of you obviously don't care about the persecuted Falungong, Christians and Muslims languishing in jail. Where do you think the organs for transplant come from?

The two of you value Socialism (even in the diluted version that is China's today) more than freedom and democracy. That is why you don't want the CCP to be swept away. That is also why Socialists/communists are still such dangerous people.
Cass, you do not realize it but you seem to have an ideologue mindset that resembles that of a Marxist.

For you history can only move in one direction.

neverfail
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Re: Global recession coming? An Australian take.

Post by neverfail » Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:33 pm

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal ... 52lj2.html

If Australia drifts into recession in the next 12 months it will be due to two main factors – Donald Trump and benign policy neglect from our governments. I would put the probability at over 50 per cent.
Long before I read this essay I had drawn the same conclusion.

John Hewson, the author, along with his professorship is a former leader of our Liberal Party (er, that's our main centre-RIGHT party - nothing to do with US Democrats party "liberalism" - to reassure you Netcom types out there) and he also had a spell at working for the World Bank. I believe that he is well qualified to comment on this topic.

neverfail
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Re: Global recession coming?

Post by neverfail » Fri Sep 06, 2019 10:14 pm

Consumer weakness is the biggest threat to US economy - By DAVID P. GOLDMAN
https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/09/artic ... s-economy/
9 key countries are on the verge of recession, driving fears the U.S. could follow
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... ld-follow/
For now, U.S. consumers are the bright spot holding up much of the global economy. :shock: :cry:
If US consumers are the bright spot then may God help us all!

In addition to the nine: Germany; the UK; Italy; Mexico; Brazil; Argentina; Singapore; South Korea and Russia the Japanese economy is weak and getting weaker too:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org › wiki › Japanese_Recession
Japanese Recession. Japan is currently facing a recession due to many occurring circumstances that have caused Japan's economy to slowly spiral down.
In addition, business confidence is weak in India and it also goes without saying that if the US economy slumps into recession so will Canada.

By now, if you are not convinced that our World is now tottering on the very edge of a global recession then nothing is likely to convince you - short of the recession actually starting.

Jim the Moron
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Re: Global recession coming?

Post by Jim the Moron » Sat Sep 07, 2019 12:21 am

Yes, there is a recession coming. If not this year, then the next. If not next year, then the year following. And if ... and so on ad infinitum.

So it is written.

neverfail
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Re: Global recession coming? It will bring about a huge global geopolitical shift.

Post by neverfail » Sat Sep 07, 2019 4:31 am

Last time (2008 - post GFC) only the USA (along with economic appendage/dependency Canada) plus Europe plunged into recession. Which means that only about half of the World suffered recession and it was overwhelmingly a Western phenomenon. What saved the others? A timely stimulus package implemented by the PRC government kept the Chinese economy buoyant along with virtually every country on the western side of the pacific Ocean that had significant trading/commercial ties with the PRC.

I believe that it was for this reason that Japan and South Korea stayed out of recession. Likewise India and the ASEAN bloc of south east Asian countries. My own country also as much because of the flow-on effects of the PRC stimulus package as because of our own government's.

That was back in 2008 and the years immediately after. I doubt very much whether the PRC could pull the same rabbit out of the hat a second time around.

If it can it will only convince the Chinese public and those of quite a few other countries that democracy brings about nothing but economic instability and therefore the PRC way with its record of steady growth is best.

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Milo
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Re: Global recession coming? It will bring about a huge global geopolitical shift.

Post by Milo » Sat Sep 07, 2019 9:46 am

neverfail wrote:
Sat Sep 07, 2019 4:31 am
Last time (2008 - post GFC) only the USA (along with economic appendage/dependency Canada) plus Europe plunged into recession. Which means that only about half of the World suffered recession and it was overwhelmingly a Western phenomenon. What saved the others? A timely stimulus package implemented by the PRC government kept the Chinese economy buoyant along with virtually every country on the western side of the pacific Ocean that had significant trading/commercial ties with the PRC.

I believe that it was for this reason that Japan and South Korea stayed out of recession. Likewise India and the ASEAN bloc of south east Asian countries. My own country also as much because of the flow-on effects of the PRC stimulus package as because of our own government's.

That was back in 2008 and the years immediately after. I doubt very much whether the PRC could pull the same rabbit out of the hat a second time around.

If it can it will only convince the Chinese public and those of quite a few other countries that democracy brings about nothing but economic instability and therefore the PRC way with its record of steady growth is best.
Canada was not hit as hard as America because we still had some banking oversight.

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