Global recession coming?

Discussion of current events
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cassowary
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Re: Global recession coming?

Post by cassowary » Mon Sep 09, 2019 10:01 pm

Jim the Moron wrote:
Sat Sep 07, 2019 12:21 am
Yes, there is a recession coming. If not this year, then the next. If not next year, then the year following. And if ... and so on ad infinitum.

So it is written.
Hahaha. That’s very true. Nobody knows exactly when.
The Imp :D

neverfail
Posts: 3974
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Location: Singapore

Re: Global recession coming?

Post by neverfail » Tue Sep 10, 2019 11:18 pm

cassowary wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 10:01 pm
Jim the Moron wrote:
Sat Sep 07, 2019 12:21 am
Yes, there is a recession coming. If not this year, then the next. If not next year, then the year following. And if ... and so on ad infinitum.

So it is written.
Hahaha. That’s very true. Nobody knows exactly when.
Nor do they/we know how severe it is destined to be or for how long lived.

I cannot lay claim to having the omniscience of God Almighty either; yet as I see it all of the signs and indicators point to it coming; most likely sooner rather than later.

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cassowary
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Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 11:30 pm

Re: Global recession coming?

Post by cassowary » Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:01 am

neverfail wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 11:18 pm
cassowary wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 10:01 pm
Jim the Moron wrote:
Sat Sep 07, 2019 12:21 am
Yes, there is a recession coming. If not this year, then the next. If not next year, then the year following. And if ... and so on ad infinitum.

So it is written.
Hahaha. That’s very true. Nobody knows exactly when.
Nor do they/we know how severe it is destined to be or for how long lived.

I cannot lay claim to having the omniscience of God Almighty either; yet as I see it all of the signs and indicators point to it coming; most likely sooner rather than later.
True. It’s all part of the business cycle. Since we don’t know, let’s not worry bout it.
The Imp :D

neverfail
Posts: 3974
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2016 3:47 am
Location: Singapore

Re: Global recession coming?

Post by neverfail » Wed Sep 11, 2019 4:16 pm

cassowary wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:01 am
neverfail wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 11:18 pm
cassowary wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 10:01 pm
Jim the Moron wrote:
Sat Sep 07, 2019 12:21 am
Yes, there is a recession coming. If not this year, then the next. If not next year, then the year following. And if ... and so on ad infinitum.

So it is written.
Hahaha. That’s very true. Nobody knows exactly when.
Nor do they/we know how severe it is destined to be or for how long lived.

I cannot lay claim to having the omniscience of God Almighty either; yet as I see it all of the signs and indicators point to it coming; most likely sooner rather than later.
True. It’s all part of the business cycle. Since we don’t know, let’s not worry bout it.
I do not see economic recession as being like the cycle of night and day or the seasons. What if the recession, like the Great Depression or more recently the GFC turns out to be eminently preventable?

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lzzrdgrrl
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Location: Okie Doke

Re: Global recession coming?

Post by lzzrdgrrl » Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:07 pm

I have a certain notoriety among the lesser gods........

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cassowary
Posts: 3206
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 11:30 pm

Re: Global recession coming?

Post by cassowary » Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:38 pm

neverfail wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 4:16 pm
cassowary wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:01 am
neverfail wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 11:18 pm
cassowary wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 10:01 pm
Jim the Moron wrote:
Sat Sep 07, 2019 12:21 am
Yes, there is a recession coming. If not this year, then the next. If not next year, then the year following. And if ... and so on ad infinitum.

So it is written.
Hahaha. That’s very true. Nobody knows exactly when.
Nor do they/we know how severe it is destined to be or for how long lived.

I cannot lay claim to having the omniscience of God Almighty either; yet as I see it all of the signs and indicators point to it coming; most likely sooner rather than later.
True. It’s all part of the business cycle. Since we don’t know, let’s not worry bout it.
I do not see economic recession as being like the cycle of night and day or the seasons. What if the recession, like the Great Depression or more recently the GFC turns out to be eminently preventable?
That’s a very good question Neverfail. Are recessions preventable? It’s a very difficult question to answer. It is like avoiding a quarrel with my Wife. I can try to be considerate. Be careful with what I say. But sooner other later, there will be one.

The US Federal Reserve is charged with avoiding recession and inflation. If interest rates are too high, you get recession. If too Low, you get inflation. Then there are so many factors beyond their control. Oil price, consumer demand for goods and services. Demand is affected by so many factors. Consumer confidence is one of them. If you feel your job is secure, you will spend more.

The businessman will hire more to cater for higher demand. The Fed must set the interest rates at a level that avoids inflation and recession by considering dozens of factors.

You can say that a recession can be prevented if the Fed gets it right all the time. Just like I can avoid making my Wife mad if I read her correctly all the time.

Sooner or later, an accident will happen. When will lightning strike and start a forest fire?? When will I do something that makes my Wife mad? We don’t know. So in the same way, sooner or later, the Fed is going to get it wrong and you get a recession. In that sense, recession is unavoidable.
The Imp :D

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Sertorio
Posts: 2815
Joined: Fri Dec 16, 2016 3:12 am

Re: Global recession coming?

Post by Sertorio » Thu Sep 12, 2019 2:43 am

cassowary wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:38 pm
neverfail wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 4:16 pm
cassowary wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:01 am
neverfail wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 11:18 pm
cassowary wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 10:01 pm
Jim the Moron wrote:
Sat Sep 07, 2019 12:21 am
Yes, there is a recession coming. If not this year, then the next. If not next year, then the year following. And if ... and so on ad infinitum.

So it is written.
Hahaha. That’s very true. Nobody knows exactly when.
Nor do they/we know how severe it is destined to be or for how long lived.

I cannot lay claim to having the omniscience of God Almighty either; yet as I see it all of the signs and indicators point to it coming; most likely sooner rather than later.
True. It’s all part of the business cycle. Since we don’t know, let’s not worry bout it.
I do not see economic recession as being like the cycle of night and day or the seasons. What if the recession, like the Great Depression or more recently the GFC turns out to be eminently preventable?
That’s a very good question Neverfail. Are recessions preventable? It’s a very difficult question to answer. It is like avoiding a quarrel with my Wife. I can try to be considerate. Be careful with what I say. But sooner other later, there will be one.

The US Federal Reserve is charged with avoiding recession and inflation. If interest rates are too high, you get recession. If too Low, you get inflation. Then there are so many factors beyond their control. Oil price, consumer demand for goods and services. Demand is affected by so many factors. Consumer confidence is one of them. If you feel your job is secure, you will spend more.

The businessman will hire more to cater for higher demand. The Fed must set the interest rates at a level that avoids inflation and recession by considering dozens of factors.

You can say that a recession can be prevented if the Fed gets it right all the time. Just like I can avoid making my Wife mad if I read her correctly all the time.

Sooner or later, an accident will happen. When will lightning strike and start a forest fire?? When will I do something that makes my Wife mad? We don’t know. So in the same way, sooner or later, the Fed is going to get it wrong and you get a recession. In that sense, recession is unavoidable.
For those who believe Keynes was mostly right, recessions are the result of decreases in aggregate demand - either in cosuming or investing, or both -, and such decreases may be the result of decreases in disposable income or in increases in production costs. As such, you could only prevent recessions if you could avoid any of those things happening. Some you can, others might be difficult to avoid.

neverfail
Posts: 3974
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Location: Singapore

Re: Global recession coming?

Post by neverfail » Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:01 am

cassowary wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:38 pm
It is like avoiding a quarrel with my Wife. I can try to be considerate. Be careful with what I say. But sooner other later, there will be one.
:lol:

Many years ago as a bachelor I had the impression that Asian women were such tranquil, demure lasses. I then married one and discovered the hard way that they were just like our women. Join the club! :D

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cassowary
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Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 11:30 pm

Re: Global recession coming?

Post by cassowary » Thu Sep 12, 2019 7:54 am

Sertorio wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 2:43 am

For those who believe Keynes was mostly right, recessions are the result of decreases in aggregate demand - either in cosuming or investing, or both -, and such decreases may be the result of decreases in disposable income or in increases in production costs. As such, you could only prevent recessions if you could avoid any of those things happening. Some you can, others might be difficult to avoid.
Well, I mentioned that demand is one of the factors. But the Fed has the tool to compensate for a fall in total demand by lowering interest rates. This makes it easier to, say buy a car, on hire purchase. Or for businesses to borrow and invest. So this boosts demand.
The Imp :D

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Sertorio
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Joined: Fri Dec 16, 2016 3:12 am

Re: Global recession coming?

Post by Sertorio » Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:46 am

cassowary wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 7:54 am
Sertorio wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 2:43 am

For those who believe Keynes was mostly right, recessions are the result of decreases in aggregate demand - either in cosuming or investing, or both -, and such decreases may be the result of decreases in disposable income or in increases in production costs. As such, you could only prevent recessions if you could avoid any of those things happening. Some you can, others might be difficult to avoid.
Well, I mentioned that demand is one of the factors. But the Fed has the tool to compensate for a fall in total demand by lowering interest rates. This makes it easier to, say buy a car, on hire purchase. Or for businesses to borrow and invest. So this boosts demand.
But lowering interest rates decreases savings, because it becomes less interesting to save... And thus makes investing more difficult... :)

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