"It's an ill wind....."

Discussion of current events
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Doc
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Re: "It's an ill wind....."

Post by Doc » Wed Jul 17, 2019 11:36 am

Milo wrote:
Wed Jul 17, 2019 9:58 am
I met a lawyer from Vietnam some years ago. The justice system there is far from independent, Party membership is mandatory for all lawyers, but reading between the lines I sensed that he was parroting the party line while the old absolutism of the Party eroded.

IOW, most "communist" countries these days, probably all of them, are stuck with communism as historical baggage. Ironically, it seems to resemble the world's monarchies to me, where the once all powerful become cultural figureheads as time goes by.

Few revolutions were worth it in hindsight, however, evolution is pretty much always an improvement.

I look forward to a gradual shift to countries that are communist in name only. There seems ample evidence that will happen.
I can't think of any Milo. The problem with revolutions is that you can never be sure of the intent of the revolutions leaders until it is too late to replace them.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Milo
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Re: "It's an ill wind....."

Post by Milo » Wed Jul 17, 2019 12:57 pm

Doc wrote:
Wed Jul 17, 2019 11:36 am
Milo wrote:
Wed Jul 17, 2019 9:58 am
I met a lawyer from Vietnam some years ago. The justice system there is far from independent, Party membership is mandatory for all lawyers, but reading between the lines I sensed that he was parroting the party line while the old absolutism of the Party eroded.

IOW, most "communist" countries these days, probably all of them, are stuck with communism as historical baggage. Ironically, it seems to resemble the world's monarchies to me, where the once all powerful become cultural figureheads as time goes by.

Few revolutions were worth it in hindsight, however, evolution is pretty much always an improvement.

I look forward to a gradual shift to countries that are communist in name only. There seems ample evidence that will happen.
I can't think of any Milo. The problem with revolutions is that you can never be sure of the intent of the revolutions leaders until it is too late to replace them.
Really? You can't think of any?

neverfail
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Re: "It's an ill wind....."

Post by neverfail » Wed Jul 17, 2019 4:32 pm

Milo wrote:
Wed Jul 17, 2019 12:57 pm
Doc wrote:
Wed Jul 17, 2019 11:36 am
Milo wrote:
Wed Jul 17, 2019 9:58 am
I met a lawyer from Vietnam some years ago. The justice system there is far from independent, Party membership is mandatory for all lawyers, but reading between the lines I sensed that he was parroting the party line while the old absolutism of the Party eroded.

IOW, most "communist" countries these days, probably all of them, are stuck with communism as historical baggage. Ironically, it seems to resemble the world's monarchies to me, where the once all powerful become cultural figureheads as time goes by.

Few revolutions were worth it in hindsight, however, evolution is pretty much always an improvement.

I look forward to a gradual shift to countries that are communist in name only. There seems ample evidence that will happen.
I can't think of any Milo. The problem with revolutions is that you can never be sure of the intent of the revolutions leaders until it is too late to replace them.
Really? You can't think of any?
Excuse my interjection Milo (and Doc). Revolutions are broadly based upheavals that tend to acquire leadership when they are already in train. You can never predict the outcome once the process gets started. What the intent of those leaders it attracts may be rendered irrelevant by the course of events as these spiral out of control.

If it does not comply to that benchmark then it is not a revolution but should be defined as something else.

To illustrate using events in Russia in 1917: the original March revolution that saw Czarist authority utterly collapse and the rise of Kerensky as leader of a shaky Social Democrats alliance government in St Petersburg was a true revolution. The following November (so-called) revolution was NOT. The Bolshevik bid for power was a coup against an existing government, premeditated and led by Lenin, followed by a long and bloody civil war.

Important to make these distinctions.

neverfail
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Re: Vietnam's recent success is well deserved. Don't spoil it Trump!

Post by neverfail » Wed Jul 17, 2019 5:03 pm

I originally inaugurated this discussion on Vietnam with this (part cut-and-pasted) post:
neverfail wrote:
Thu Jul 04, 2019 4:10 pm
Vietnam biggest winner from first year of the US-China trade war as supply chains shift, report shows.
The economy of the southeast Asian nation was boosted by almost 8 per cent due to the shift in production as importers sought to avoid Donald Trump’s tariffs

https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-eco ... war-supply
So, to get back to the original theme, there seems to be a new development:

Trump’s next trade war target: Vietnam
Southeast Asian nation has dramatically whipsawed between US-China trade war winner to potential next big tariffed loser

Trump whinges about "currency manipulation" by America's Asian trading partners yet if that were true then you could seriously expect Vietnam's other external trading partners to be up in arms about it too. Yet it only seems to be Trump's America that complains about it.
Moreover, on June 30, Vietnam finally signed a free-trade agreement with the European Union after several years of protracted negotiations.

The deal, which will remove import duties from 99% of Vietnam’s exports within seven years, up from 71% when the deal was signed, could boost Vietnam’s exports to the EU by 20% in 2020, according to official estimates.
The EU, like the United States (or Canada), is another of the World's high average income, high production cost regions that you would seriously expect to be similarly disaffected by underhand business tactics like currency manipulation. But as the reader can see the EU has so few hang-ups about the Vietnamese conduct of business that they have gone ahead and signed up to a (rather generous, it seems) free trade pact with the country.

Upon reflection, I am led to the conclusion that Trump is such an incorrigible blockhead about matters economic that he cannot see, refuses to see, that different nations are unequal to one another in terms of production costs versus profitability. That the historically recent success of countries like China and Vietnam has more to do with a favorable relationship between cost and profitability for a range of products than prevails in the USA or is ever likely to in future. Which is why US companies with investments in the PRC are, in the wake of Trump's tariff impositions, are shifting their production sideways into Vietnam instead of back to the US.

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Doc
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Re: "It's an ill wind....."

Post by Doc » Thu Jul 18, 2019 4:40 am

Milo wrote:
Wed Jul 17, 2019 12:57 pm
Doc wrote:
Wed Jul 17, 2019 11:36 am
Milo wrote:
Wed Jul 17, 2019 9:58 am
I met a lawyer from Vietnam some years ago. The justice system there is far from independent, Party membership is mandatory for all lawyers, but reading between the lines I sensed that he was parroting the party line while the old absolutism of the Party eroded.

IOW, most "communist" countries these days, probably all of them, are stuck with communism as historical baggage. Ironically, it seems to resemble the world's monarchies to me, where the once all powerful become cultural figureheads as time goes by.

Few revolutions were worth it in hindsight, however, evolution is pretty much always an improvement.

I look forward to a gradual shift to countries that are communist in name only. There seems ample evidence that will happen.
I can't think of any Milo. The problem with revolutions is that you can never be sure of the intent of the revolutions leaders until it is too late to replace them.
Really? You can't think of any?
Without a revolution? Can't think of one. You?
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

neverfail
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Re: Vietnam is doing rather well, thank you!

Post by neverfail » Fri Jul 19, 2019 3:09 am

No stopping Vietnam’s trade war juggernaut

Growth is soaring, trade is surging and investment rising – all in spite of Trump’s bid to sanction and slow the export-geared nation

https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/07/artic ... uggernaut/

So :P , :lol:

Jim the Moron
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Re: "It's an ill wind....."

Post by Jim the Moron » Wed Jul 24, 2019 1:23 am

Yes, and it's not only Vietnam that appears to be a beneficiary of current trade squabbles. Our resident marsupial should take note of this:

"One-trick pony? Australian exports zoom despite global trade war."
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-aust ... SKCN1UJ0QV

neverfail
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Re: "It's an ill wind....."

Post by neverfail » Wed Jul 24, 2019 4:26 am

Jim the Moron wrote:
Wed Jul 24, 2019 1:23 am
Yes, and it's not only Vietnam that appears to be a beneficiary of current trade squabbles. Our resident marsupial should take note of this:

"One-trick pony? Australian exports zoom despite global trade war."
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-aust ... SKCN1UJ0QV
Thanks for that link Jim.

I can only respond by proclaiming 'thank God for small mercies."

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