"War With Iran Would Be a Disaster"

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neverfail
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"War With Iran Would Be a Disaster"

Post by neverfail » Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:47 pm

"It would mean repeating a mistake, only on a much bigger scale: without allies, without justification, and without any plan at all."

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... se/589534/

The Iraq War of 2003 was undone by blithe assumptions, cultural ignorance, and careless planning. But compared with the accelerating drive to confront Iran, the Iraq War looks like a masterpiece of meticulous preparation.

The project of a war with Iran is so crazy, it remains incredible that Donald Trump’s administration could truly be premeditating it. But on the off, off chance that it is, here’s a word of caution from a veteran of the George W. Bush administration: Don’t do it.

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Doc
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Re: "War With Iran Would Be a Disaster"

Post by Doc » Thu Jun 20, 2019 6:41 pm

neverfail wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:47 pm
"It would mean repeating a mistake, only on a much bigger scale: without allies, without justification, and without any plan at all."

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... se/589534/

The Iraq War of 2003 was undone by blithe assumptions, cultural ignorance, and careless planning. But compared with the accelerating drive to confront Iran, the Iraq War looks like a masterpiece of meticulous preparation.

The project of a war with Iran is so crazy, it remains incredible that Donald Trump’s administration could truly be premeditating it. But on the off, off chance that it is, here’s a word of caution from a veteran of the George W. Bush administration: Don’t do it.
Trump has no interest in a war unless he is forced into it. If that happens then I imagine everyone for the most part will be for it.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Sertorio
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Re: "War With Iran Would Be a Disaster"

Post by Sertorio » Fri Jun 21, 2019 1:56 am

Doc wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 6:41 pm

Trump has no interest in a war unless he is forced into it. If that happens then I imagine everyone for the most part will be for it.
Specially those whose loved ones will die in such a war... There is something very romantic about tying an yellow ribbon to a tree next to your home...

neverfail
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Re: "War With Iran Would Be a Disaster"

Post by neverfail » Fri Jun 21, 2019 3:24 am

Doc wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 6:41 pm
Trump has no interest in a war unless he is forced into it.
What do you imagine could "force" him into one?

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Alexis
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Re: "War With Iran Would Be a Disaster"

Post by Alexis » Fri Jun 21, 2019 5:20 am

neverfail wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:47 pm
"It would mean repeating a mistake, only on a much bigger scale: without allies, without justification, and without any plan at all."
(...) Don’t do it.
That piece of advice is obviously very well-founded.

It is also frankly more than a bit irrelevant.

Indeed, neither the US nor anybody else should endeavour to invade and occupy Iran, under pretext of making it into a better country with a better regime. That would result in a much bigger disaster than Iraq 2003-11 was.

But nobody is proposing such a thing anyway!

The stakes of the present confrontation are the ability for Iran to export its oil, providing 70%+ of its external revenues and enabling development of its economy. That ability is under attack by the US, who not content of withdrawing from the 2015 treaty are threatening the 5 other parties to the treaty with economic sanctions if they dare trade with Iran.

The fact that none of the 5 (China, Russia, the 3 Europeans) have been willing to resist those sanctions enough enables the US to strangle Iranian economy, pushing them to take more risks so as to convince the ROW that letting them be strangled is not in their own best interest.

It is unclear whether the attacks on the 2 tankers were part of that Iranian policy, or a mere US false flag. Anyway, downing the US UAV, as well as announcing their exiting the limits of the 2015 treaty which the US destroyed, are parts of that policy. Also, even if the tanker attacks were false flags - as appear probable from inconsistencies in US claims, as already noted in another thread - the Iranian ability to seriously hinder if not interdict oil trade through the Hormuz straits cannot be doubted, and some of their leaders are on record threatening last year that "if Iran cannot export its oil from the Persian Gulf, nobody can".

The outcome of the US decision to threaten with sanctions anybody trading with Iran is a situation leading more or less quickly, more or less directly, but anyway quite strongly, to war. A war whose stakes will be freedom of navigation in Hormuz Straits along with Iranian freedom to export. That war would have serious consequences for the global economy: about 20% of world's oil passes through the Straits, and diminution of oil supply by a quarter of that would be enough to trigger a global recession. It would have disastrous consequences for Iran of course, but not only for them. Free passage through the Straits would be eventually restored yes... but eventually only. In the meantime, global recession, and a lot of blood in the Gulf region, including American blood because ground fighting would be needed to terminate Iranian ability to trouble Gulf traffic.

One way to avoid this catastrophe is for the 3 Europeans to grow a spine, and ensure free trade with Iran no matter US sanctions. They have ways of doing so, however not without some arm-wrestling with Washington, which at least some of them are quite reluctant to do.

Another way would be for China to step in. However, they do not look interested, choosing to concentrate on their troubled trade relationship with the US.

Russia could not, and anyway won't do it, because it's not in its interest. As a big exporter of oil and other fossil fuels, Russia stands to strongly gain from such a war.

Remains Donald Trump, who is probably the last best hope of maintaining peace. He doesn't want any shooting war, that is clear enough - he is only interested in trade wars. He also wants to be reelected, and his chances will be much smaller if US economy slows down because of a global recession. He wants "a deal", like he is so wont to say.

More than anybody else, Trump created this dangerous situation. He is also the person who has the best chance of defusing it.

The problem is that he gravely erred in pushing the other party in a corner, and pushing them if not to desperation, at least to take much higher risks. There is the danger. And it's not clear Trump has realized it yet.

Jim the Moron
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Re: "War With Iran Would Be a Disaster"

Post by Jim the Moron » Fri Jun 21, 2019 6:14 am

Alexis wrote:
Fri Jun 21, 2019 5:20 am
neverfail wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:47 pm
"It would mean repeating a mistake, only on a much bigger scale: without allies, without justification, and without any plan at all."
(...) Don’t do it.
That piece of advice is obviously very well-founded.

It is also frankly more than a bit irrelevant.

Indeed, neither the US nor anybody else should endeavour to invade and occupy Iran, under pretext of making it into a better country with a better regime. That would result in a much bigger disaster than Iraq 2003-11 was.

But nobody is proposing such a thing anyway!

The stakes of the present confrontation are the ability for Iran to export its oil, providing 70%+ of its external revenues and enabling development of its economy. That ability is under attack by the US, who not content of withdrawing from the 2015 treaty are threatening the 5 other parties to the treaty with economic sanctions if they dare trade with Iran.

The fact that none of the 5 (China, Russia, the 3 Europeans) have been willing to resist those sanctions enough enables the US to strangle Iranian economy, pushing them to take more risks so as to convince the ROW that letting them be strangled is not in their own best interest.

It is unclear whether the attacks on the 2 tankers were part of that Iranian policy, or a mere US false flag. Anyway, downing the US UAV, as well as announcing their exiting the limits of the 2015 treaty which the US destroyed, are parts of that policy. Also, even if the tanker attacks were false flags - as appear probable from inconsistencies in US claims, as already noted in another thread - the Iranian ability to seriously hinder if not interdict oil trade through the Hormuz straits cannot be doubted, and some of their leaders are on record threatening last year that "if Iran cannot export its oil from the Persian Gulf, nobody can".

The outcome of the US decision to threaten with sanctions anybody trading with Iran is a situation leading more or less quickly, more or less directly, but anyway quite strongly, to war. A war whose stakes will be freedom of navigation in Hormuz Straits along with Iranian freedom to export. That war would have serious consequences for the global economy: about 20% of world's oil passes through the Straits, and diminution of oil supply by a quarter of that would be enough to trigger a global recession. It would have disastrous consequences for Iran of course, but not only for them. Free passage through the Straits would be eventually restored yes... but eventually only. In the meantime, global recession, and a lot of blood in the Gulf region, including American blood because ground fighting would be needed to terminate Iranian ability to trouble Gulf traffic.

One way to avoid this catastrophe is for the 3 Europeans to grow a spine, and ensure free trade with Iran no matter US sanctions. They have ways of doing so, however not without some arm-wrestling with Washington, which at least some of them are quite reluctant to do.

Another way would be for China to step in. However, they do not look interested, choosing to concentrate on their troubled trade relationship with the US.

Russia could not, and anyway won't do it, because it's not in its interest. As a big exporter of oil and other fossil fuels, Russia stands to strongly gain from such a war.

Remains Donald Trump, who is probably the last best hope of maintaining peace. He doesn't want any shooting war, that is clear enough - he is only interested in trade wars. He also wants to be reelected, and his chances will be much smaller if US economy slows down because of a global recession. He wants "a deal", like he is so wont to say.

More than anybody else, Trump created this dangerous situation. He is also the person who has the best chance of defusing it.

The problem is that he gravely erred in pushing the other party in a corner, and pushing them if not to desperation, at least to take much higher risks. There is the danger. And it's not clear Trump has realized it yet.

Yes, there are no entities proposing land invasion of Iran. The US and other non-Islam interests in the ME should pull all ground forces out of the region. Israel can take care of itself, thank you.

Other interested parties? The Arabs. What roles can they play in all of this, besides expressions of concern?

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Sertorio
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Re: "War With Iran Would Be a Disaster"

Post by Sertorio » Fri Jun 21, 2019 7:58 am

Alexis wrote:
Fri Jun 21, 2019 5:20 am

One way to avoid this catastrophe is for the 3 Europeans to grow a spine, and ensure free trade with Iran no matter US sanctions. They have ways of doing so, however not without some arm-wrestling with Washington, which at least some of them are quite reluctant to do.
This is what truly bothers me. Why don't the European countries do something? What are they afraid of? Stopping all relations with the US might be a bit problematic, at first, but on the longer term that's what Europe must do. The US is bound to become irrelevant, so let's just go ahead and dump them.

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Doc
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Re: "War With Iran Would Be a Disaster"

Post by Doc » Fri Jun 21, 2019 8:02 am

Sertorio wrote:
Fri Jun 21, 2019 7:58 am
Alexis wrote:
Fri Jun 21, 2019 5:20 am

One way to avoid this catastrophe is for the 3 Europeans to grow a spine, and ensure free trade with Iran no matter US sanctions. They have ways of doing so, however not without some arm-wrestling with Washington, which at least some of them are quite reluctant to do.
This is what truly bothers me. Why don't the European countries do something? What are they afraid of? Stopping all relations with the US might be a bit problematic, at first, but on the longer term that's what Europe must do. The US is bound to become irrelevant, so let's just go ahead and dump them.
Why doesn't Iran stop supporting terrorism?
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

Jim the Moron
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Re: "War With Iran Would Be a Disaster"

Post by Jim the Moron » Fri Jun 21, 2019 8:04 am

Sertorio wrote:
Fri Jun 21, 2019 7:58 am
Alexis wrote:
Fri Jun 21, 2019 5:20 am

One way to avoid this catastrophe is for the 3 Europeans to grow a spine, and ensure free trade with Iran no matter US sanctions. They have ways of doing so, however not without some arm-wrestling with Washington, which at least some of them are quite reluctant to do.
This is what truly bothers me. Why don't the European countries do something? What are they afraid of? Stopping all relations with the US might be a bit problematic, at first, but on the longer term that's what Europe must do. The US is bound to become irrelevant, so let's just go ahead and dump them.
Bless you. It could be almost Faulknerian - ridding America of needy Euro types.

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Sertorio
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Re: "War With Iran Would Be a Disaster"

Post by Sertorio » Fri Jun 21, 2019 12:07 pm

Doc wrote:
Fri Jun 21, 2019 8:02 am
Sertorio wrote:
Fri Jun 21, 2019 7:58 am
Alexis wrote:
Fri Jun 21, 2019 5:20 am

One way to avoid this catastrophe is for the 3 Europeans to grow a spine, and ensure free trade with Iran no matter US sanctions. They have ways of doing so, however not without some arm-wrestling with Washington, which at least some of them are quite reluctant to do.
This is what truly bothers me. Why don't the European countries do something? What are they afraid of? Stopping all relations with the US might be a bit problematic, at first, but on the longer term that's what Europe must do. The US is bound to become irrelevant, so let's just go ahead and dump them.
Why doesn't Iran stop supporting terrorism?
Iran doesn't support terrorism. Saudi Arabia does, and the US keeps rewarding it...

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