Trade War

Discussion of current events
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cassowary
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Trade War

Post by cassowary » Thu May 09, 2019 9:21 pm

US and China firms braced for Tariff shock
The US is set to increase tariffs on $200bn (£153.7bn) worth of Chinese products on Friday, in a sharp escalation of their damaging trade war.

Tariffs on those Chinese goods will more than double to 25% at 04:01 GMT, and Beijing has vowed to retaliate.
The US has said that China has reneged on earlier promises.

What happened?

I think Biden happened. Biden has made some friendly noises about China.
“China is going to eat our lunch? Come on, man...they can’t even figure out how to deal with the fact that they have this great division between the China Sea and the mountains in the east, I mean in the west.”

Biden continued "they can’t figure out how they’re going to deal with the corruption that exists within the system. I mean, you know, they’re not bad folks, folks. But guess what, they’re not, they’re not competition for us.”
I am sure that China knows that Biden is currently leading Trump by 6% in the polls. They obviously hope for a return of the weak oBUMa/Biden years of yesterday when China could walk all over the US.

They had experience with Biden before and know that he is bribable. Hunter Biden got a $1.5 billion deal from the Chinese government as his dad was negotiating on sensitive matters with the Chinese. Slow Joe was accused of going soft on China. I guess he is not so slow after all when it comes to money.
Last edited by cassowary on Thu May 09, 2019 9:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
The Imp :D

Mr. Perfect
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Re: Trade War

Post by Mr. Perfect » Thu May 09, 2019 9:22 pm

I'm down. Let's get it on.

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cassowary
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Re: Trade War

Post by cassowary » Fri May 10, 2019 12:06 am

Mr. Perfect wrote:
Thu May 09, 2019 9:22 pm
I'm down. Let's get it on.
What?
The Imp :D

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cassowary
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Re: Trade War

Post by cassowary » Fri May 10, 2019 12:10 am

cassowary wrote:
Thu May 09, 2019 9:21 pm
US and China firms braced for Tariff shock
The US is set to increase tariffs on $200bn (£153.7bn) worth of Chinese products on Friday, in a sharp escalation of their damaging trade war.

Tariffs on those Chinese goods will more than double to 25% at 04:01 GMT, and Beijing has vowed to retaliate.
The US has said that China has reneged on earlier promises.

What happened?

I think Biden happened. Biden has made some friendly noises about China.
“China is going to eat our lunch? Come on, man...they can’t even figure out how to deal with the fact that they have this great division between the China Sea and the mountains in the east, I mean in the west.”

Biden continued "they can’t figure out how they’re going to deal with the corruption that exists within the system. I mean, you know, they’re not bad folks, folks. But guess what, they’re not, they’re not competition for us.”
I am sure that China knows that Biden is currently leading Trump by 6% in the polls. They obviously hope for a return of the weak oBUMa/Biden years of yesterday when China could walk all over the US.

They had experience with Biden before and know that he is bribable. Hunter Biden got a $1.5 billion deal from the Chinese government as his dad was negotiating on sensitive matters with the Chinese. Slow Joe was accused of going soft on China. I guess he is not so slow after all when it comes to money.
I also want to add this.

The trade war will cause pain on both sides. It will cause more pain on China than on America. But Xi Jinping thinks that China, being a dictatorship, is able to take pain better than America, a democracy. They hope to put up with it till Biden gets elected. Then the happy days will be back again, when they have a weak American President.

Expect, Chinese interference in the US elections to elect Biden.
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neverfail
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Re: Trade War

Post by neverfail » Fri May 10, 2019 12:34 am

cassowary wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 12:10 am

I also want to add this.

The trade war will cause pain on both sides...
As a flow-on the trade war (or rather, the over-hyped international wrangle for a more advantageous deal for the US) is already causing pain to third countries with a large trade exposure to China. These include Japan, South Korea and of course my country. But of course to those narrowly focused on the USA versus the PRC we others don't count, do we?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_t ... s_of_China

https://www.uschina.org/reports/us-exports/national

I have given up on the US system of selecting presidential candidates. Whoever they pick is bound to be yet another turkey - though hopefully not a bigger one then the present White House incumbent. Biden or someone else; why should I care?

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Sertorio
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Re: Trade War

Post by Sertorio » Fri May 10, 2019 2:52 am

cassowary wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 12:10 am
cassowary wrote:
Thu May 09, 2019 9:21 pm
US and China firms braced for Tariff shock
The US is set to increase tariffs on $200bn (£153.7bn) worth of Chinese products on Friday, in a sharp escalation of their damaging trade war.

Tariffs on those Chinese goods will more than double to 25% at 04:01 GMT, and Beijing has vowed to retaliate.
The US has said that China has reneged on earlier promises.

What happened?

I think Biden happened. Biden has made some friendly noises about China.
“China is going to eat our lunch? Come on, man...they can’t even figure out how to deal with the fact that they have this great division between the China Sea and the mountains in the east, I mean in the west.”

Biden continued "they can’t figure out how they’re going to deal with the corruption that exists within the system. I mean, you know, they’re not bad folks, folks. But guess what, they’re not, they’re not competition for us.”
I am sure that China knows that Biden is currently leading Trump by 6% in the polls. They obviously hope for a return of the weak oBUMa/Biden years of yesterday when China could walk all over the US.

They had experience with Biden before and know that he is bribable. Hunter Biden got a $1.5 billion deal from the Chinese government as his dad was negotiating on sensitive matters with the Chinese. Slow Joe was accused of going soft on China. I guess he is not so slow after all when it comes to money.
I also want to add this.

The trade war will cause pain on both sides. It will cause more pain on China than on America. But Xi Jinping thinks that China, being a dictatorship, is able to take pain better than America, a democracy. They hope to put up with it till Biden gets elected. Then the happy days will be back again, when they have a weak American President.

Expect, Chinese interference in the US elections to elect Biden.
The good thing for China of a trade war with the US is that it will free China from any dependence on the US. In time China will overcome any losses it may suffer now, and it will be a lot freer to further its interests without having to worry anymore about US sanctions. That's also valid for Europe. The sooner Europe breaks all unnecessary relations with the US, the better. We are big and rich enough to take care of ourselves without the US.

Jim the Moron
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Re: Trade War

Post by Jim the Moron » Fri May 10, 2019 3:15 am

"Beijing miscalculated"

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/co ... l-11522070

This concise commentary does a good job of separating all the nationalistic chaff from the essence of the trade conflict - that essence being Trump vs Xi.

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Sertorio
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Re: Trade War

Post by Sertorio » Fri May 10, 2019 3:40 am

Jim the Moron wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 3:15 am
"Beijing miscalculated"

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/co ... l-11522070

This concise commentary does a good job of separating all the nationalistic chaff from the essence of the trade conflict - that essence being Trump vs Xi.
Over the course of the past two years, the old American consensus around the need to engage and accommodate China and bring it into the US-led international system as a “responsible stakeholder” has evaporated.

Today, the bipartisan consensus is that an increasingly authoritarian and expansionist China presents an existential threat to that world order.
Funny that Americans accuse China of being "authoritarian and expansionist" the very same characteristics we see in the US. And the "world order" China seems to threaten, is a world dominated by the US. The sooner that "order" is destroyed, the better it will be for the rest of us.

Jim the Moron
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Re: Trade War

Post by Jim the Moron » Fri May 10, 2019 4:07 am

Sertorio wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 3:40 am
Jim the Moron wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 3:15 am
"Beijing miscalculated"

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/co ... l-11522070

This concise commentary does a good job of separating all the nationalistic chaff from the essence of the trade conflict - that essence being Trump vs Xi.
Over the course of the past two years, the old American consensus around the need to engage and accommodate China and bring it into the US-led international system as a “responsible stakeholder” has evaporated.

Today, the bipartisan consensus is that an increasingly authoritarian and expansionist China presents an existential threat to that world order.
Funny that Americans accuse China of being "authoritarian and expansionist" the very same characteristics we see in the US. And the "world order" China seems to threaten, is a world dominated by the US. The sooner that "order" is destroyed, the better it will be for the rest of us.
I don't typically engage in nationalistic-type discussions, Sertorio. I have no quarrel with your quoted item. Rather, I support the viewpoint of the writer of the item I linked:
"Global trade is now hostage to the fragile egos of two powerful men."

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Alexis
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Re: Trade War

Post by Alexis » Fri May 10, 2019 4:45 am

Jim the Moron wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 3:15 am
"Beijing miscalculated"

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/co ... l-11522070

This concise commentary does a good job of separating all the nationalistic chaff from the essence of the trade conflict - that essence being Trump vs Xi.
A convincing and concise summary.

That being said, the conclusion is more than a bit overblown: "Global trade is now hostage to the fragile egos of two powerful men"

No.

(Part of) US-China trade is threatened by the failure of negotiations between Xi and Trump.

US-China merchandise trade totals about 600 B$, that is about 3% of total global trade estimated at 20 T$.

Even if US-China trade was to completely collapse - which won't happen of course - global trade would be only marginally affected :)

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