The Liberation of Venezuela

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Sertorio
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Re: The Liberation of Venezuela

Post by Sertorio » Tue Feb 12, 2019 11:17 am

LAS CONSECUENCIAS ECONÓMICAS DEL BOICOT CONTRA VENEZUELA
por Unidad Debates Económicos | 8 Feb, 2019 | Debates Económicos, Venezuela | 0 |

La Unidad de Debates Económicos de CELAG ha realizado un estudio en el que demuestra que el bloqueo financiero internacional a Venezuela desde 2013 es el principal responsable de la crisis económica. Este bloqueo supuso la pérdida de 350.000 millones de dólares en producción de bienes y servicios entre 2013 y 2017, según uno de los escenarios planteados dentro del modelo macroeconómico de consistencia que fue utilizado.

El estudio subraya la importancia capital de los bloqueos financieros para estrangular la economía de un país. Los ataques externos a la capacidad económica y productiva de una nación pueden acabar con la misma en cuestión de pocos años y, en los últimos tiempos, suelen ser el preludio a una intervención militar. En este sentido, los autores advierten que la supuesta crisis humanitaria y la migración de centenares de miles de venezolanos tienen su origen en el boicot económico de Estados Unidos y sus aliados. Sin embargo, el Gobierno estadounidense justifica una eventual intervención en esa presunta catástrofe humanitaria y en la emigración masiva que su bloqueo, precisamente, habría creado.

En el caso de Venezuela, el bloqueo se ha basado en la expulsión del país de los mercados financieros internacionales, impidiéndole recurrir al mercado de créditos tanto para renovar vencimientos como para realizar nuevas colocaciones. En un país integrado al mundo como proveedor de petróleo, la especialización productiva condujo a una alta dependencia de las importaciones que resultan financiadas con los ingresos petroleros. Es por eso que el boicot financiero y comercial sobre Venezuela tiene consecuencias mucho más graves que en economías diversificadas.

Desde que Nicolás Maduro asumió la Presidencia en 2013, el sector público venezolano dejo de recibir en términos netos flujos que en el quinquenio 2008-2012 habían supuesto más de 95.000 millones de dólares, es decir, unos 19.000 millones de dólares anuales.

A esto hay que añadir los cuantiosos pagos que supuso la elevación del riesgo país por parte de las agencias calificadoras. A pesar de que Venezuela cumplió puntualmente los pagos de la deuda externa, agencias como Standards & Poors o Moody´s colocaron el riesgo país por encima de los 2.000 puntos desde 2015, con picos de hasta 5.000 e incluso 6.000 puntos recientemente. Los motivos aducidos por estas calificadoras a la hora de evaluar países son opacos pero la tendencia es puntuar bien a aquellos que favorezcan políticas de libre mercado y castigar lo contrario. Así es como la deuda venezolana, a pesar de seguir pagándose sostenidamente, era calificada como de altas probabilidades de default con una calificación peor que la de países en guerra como Siria.

Por este motivo, el Gobierno venezolano tuvo que pagar en el quinquenio 2013-2017 más de 17.000 millones de dólares, unos 3.300 millones de dólares anuales.

En resumen, si se suma el valor promedio anual de divisas que ya no entraron producto del bloqueo (19.200 millones), más lo que el país tuvo que pagar promedio cada año correspondiente a la deuda externa (3.300 millones), se puede concluir que la economía y la sociedad sufrió una asfixia internacional de 22.500 millones de dólares anuales producto de una estrategia deliberada internacional de aislamiento financiero. Evidentemente esta presión financiera se intensificó desde 2015 con la caída del precio del crudo.

Todos los escenarios planteados por el estudio de CELAG demuestran que la economía cada año habría tenido un mejor comportamiento en el caso de que se hubiera dispuesto de esos 22.000 millones de dólares anuales. Por el contrario, la pérdida de esa cantidad explica en un 60% el deterioro económico. Como consecuencia del bloqueo, las pérdidas en producción de bienes y servicios oscilaron entre una horquilla de 350.000 millones y 260.000 millones en el periodo 2013-2017, lo que supone entre 12.200 y 13.400 dólares por cada venezolano o venezolana. El país perdió en ese quinquenio entre 1,6 y 1,1 Productos Internos Brutos.

Un país tan dependiente de las importaciones como Venezuela no puede activar su aparato productivo sin divisas. El estrangulamiento de la financiación exterior ha significado, en términos metafóricos, un bombardeo masivo sobre sus fábricas e industrias. Si el Gobierno de Nicolás Maduro hubiera contado con un financiamiento internacional como del que dispuso Mauricio Macri en sus primeros tres años de mandato, el crecimiento del PIB venezolano sería superior al argentino.

https://www.celag.org/consecuencias-eco ... a-resumen/
It's in Spanish, but I suppose you can use Google translator to get a fair translation of what it says about the consequences of the boycot against Venezuela.

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SteveFoerster
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Re: The Liberation of Venezuela

Post by SteveFoerster » Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:10 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 11:17 am
It's in Spanish, but I suppose you can use Google translator to get a fair translation of what it says about the consequences of the boycot against Venezuela.
One could, if one wanted to waste one's time reading propaganda from a front group for teleSUR.
Writer, technologist, educator, gadfly.
President of New World University: http://newworld.ac

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Sertorio
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Re: The Liberation of Venezuela

Post by Sertorio » Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:45 pm

SteveFoerster wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:10 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 11:17 am
It's in Spanish, but I suppose you can use Google translator to get a fair translation of what it says about the consequences of the boycot against Venezuela.
One could, if one wanted to waste one's time reading propaganda from a front group for teleSUR.
Is ignorance ever a good excuse for error?... What you call propaganda may be factual truth, but you still are not interested in knowing... I suppose it would be a schock for you to find out you were wrong...Why would you want to go through such ordeal?...

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Doc
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Re: The Liberation of Venezuela

Post by Doc » Tue Feb 12, 2019 6:37 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 11:00 am
SteveFoerster wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 10:30 am
Sertorio wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:54 am
neverfail wrote:
Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:38 pm
Venezuela is self-destructing. Is there any valid reason for the US to send troops in?
Since the end of WW II, has there ever been any valid reason for the US to send troops anywhere?...
Well, do you think that 9/11 was insufficient justification for the U.S. to invade Afghanistan?
What had Afhganistan to do with 9/11?... :shock:
Allowing Osama Bin Laden to have safe refuge to plan and train for 911. Then after the fact refusing to give Bin Laden up for his crimes of killing nearly 3,000 people.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Re: The Liberation of Venezuela

Post by SteveFoerster » Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:28 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:45 pm
SteveFoerster wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:10 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 11:17 am
It's in Spanish, but I suppose you can use Google translator to get a fair translation of what it says about the consequences of the boycot against Venezuela.
One could, if one wanted to waste one's time reading propaganda from a front group for teleSUR.
Is ignorance ever a good excuse for error?...
I'm not sure, but if not, you're in deep trouble.
Sertorio wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:45 pm
What you call propaganda may be factual truth, but you still are not interested in knowing... I suppose it would be a schock for you to find out you were wrong...Why would you want to go through such ordeal?...
There'd be no need, since I'm not wrong about Venezuela. As everywhere it is tried, socialism there has led to misery, starvation, mass emigration, and death.
Writer, technologist, educator, gadfly.
President of New World University: http://newworld.ac

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Sertorio
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Re: The Liberation of Venezuela

Post by Sertorio » Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:07 am

SteveFoerster wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:28 pm

There'd be no need, since I'm not wrong about Venezuela. As everywhere it is tried, socialism there has led to misery, starvation, mass emigration, and death.
That someone, who is clearly intelligent, can state that knowledge is useless, is truly amazing to me... You may say that you don't need to read something because it is wrong. But how do you know it is wrong before you read it?... I am deeply mistrustful of The Economist, but I wouldn't dare saying any of its positions is wrong before I got acquainted with it...

neverfail
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Re: The Liberation of Venezuela

Post by neverfail » Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:08 am

Sertorio wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 11:17 am


https://www.celag.org/consecuencias-eco ... a-resumen/


It's in Spanish, but I suppose you can use Google translator to get a fair translation of what it says about the consequences of the boycot against Venezuela.
CELAC? :?: What is it?
The Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (Spanish: Comunidad de Estados Latinoamericanos y Caribeños, CELAC; is a regional bloc of Latin American and Caribbean states thought out on February 23, 2010, at the Rio Group–Caribbean Community Unity Summit,[5][6][7] and created on December 3, 2011, in Caracas, Venezuela, with the signature of The Declaration of Caracas.[8] It consists of 33 sovereign countries in the Americas representing roughly 600 million people. Due to the focus of the organization on Latin American and Caribbean countries, other countries and territories in the Americas, Canada and the United States, as well as the overseas territories in the Americas of France (Overseas departments and territories of France), the Netherlands (Dutch Caribbean), Denmark (Greenland) and the United Kingdom (British Overseas Territories) are not included.[9]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Community ... ean_States
Now, I wonder who was President of Venezuela on December 3, 2011? :mrgreen:

Hmm!

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Sertorio
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Re: The Liberation of Venezuela

Post by Sertorio » Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:29 am

neverfail wrote:
Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:08 am
Sertorio wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 11:17 am


https://www.celag.org/consecuencias-eco ... a-resumen/


It's in Spanish, but I suppose you can use Google translator to get a fair translation of what it says about the consequences of the boycot against Venezuela.
CELAC? :?: What is it?
The Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (Spanish: Comunidad de Estados Latinoamericanos y Caribeños, CELAC; is a regional bloc of Latin American and Caribbean states thought out on February 23, 2010, at the Rio Group–Caribbean Community Unity Summit,[5][6][7] and created on December 3, 2011, in Caracas, Venezuela, with the signature of The Declaration of Caracas.[8] It consists of 33 sovereign countries in the Americas representing roughly 600 million people. Due to the focus of the organization on Latin American and Caribbean countries, other countries and territories in the Americas, Canada and the United States, as well as the overseas territories in the Americas of France (Overseas departments and territories of France), the Netherlands (Dutch Caribbean), Denmark (Greenland) and the United Kingdom (British Overseas Territories) are not included.[9]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Community ... ean_States
Now, I wonder who was President of Venezuela on December 3, 2011? :mrgreen:

Hmm!
"The Declaration of Caracas. It consists of 33 sovereign countries in the Americas representing roughly 600 million people."

What difference does it make that it was signed in Caracas?... Are you implying that if it was signed elsewhere its content would have been different?... :shock:

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SteveFoerster
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Re: The Liberation of Venezuela

Post by SteveFoerster » Wed Feb 13, 2019 7:29 am

Sertorio wrote:
Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:07 am
SteveFoerster wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:28 pm

There'd be no need, since I'm not wrong about Venezuela. As everywhere it is tried, socialism there has led to misery, starvation, mass emigration, and death.
That someone, who is clearly intelligent, can state that knowledge is useless, is truly amazing to me... You may say that you don't need to read something because it is wrong. But how do you know it is wrong before you read it?... I am deeply mistrustful of The Economist, but I wouldn't dare saying any of its positions is wrong before I got acquainted with it...
I wouldn't state that. But unlike you I actually understand the difference between knowledge and overt propaganda.
Writer, technologist, educator, gadfly.
President of New World University: http://newworld.ac

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Sertorio
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Re: The Liberation of Venezuela

Post by Sertorio » Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:44 am

SteveFoerster wrote:
Wed Feb 13, 2019 7:29 am
Sertorio wrote:
Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:07 am
SteveFoerster wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:28 pm

There'd be no need, since I'm not wrong about Venezuela. As everywhere it is tried, socialism there has led to misery, starvation, mass emigration, and death.
That someone, who is clearly intelligent, can state that knowledge is useless, is truly amazing to me... You may say that you don't need to read something because it is wrong. But how do you know it is wrong before you read it?... I am deeply mistrustful of The Economist, but I wouldn't dare saying any of its positions is wrong before I got acquainted with it...
I wouldn't state that. But unlike you I actually understand the difference between knowledge and overt propaganda.
Even to fight propaganda you must know what it states. If you do not read it you cannot know where it's wrong... Simply saying, if the Russians say it it must be a lie, is moronic...

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