What does Britain hope to gain from this?

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Milo
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Re: What does Britain hope to gain from this?

Post by Milo » Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:13 am

neverfail wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 4:16 am
Sertorio wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 3:14 am
The UK is an aged toothless bulldog. It should stop dreaming of the good old days when it could impose its will on the "natives"...
It can't do that any more. These days the natives can bite back.
However, it would seem that the 'natives' sometimes invite them back.

In the case of Brunei the government decided they should never leave.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Forces_Brunei

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SteveFoerster
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Re: What does Britain hope to gain from this?

Post by SteveFoerster » Wed Jan 09, 2019 11:52 am

What about East Timor? They're in the region, and it seems they could use any economic boost they could get.
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Sertorio
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Re: What does Britain hope to gain from this?

Post by Sertorio » Wed Jan 09, 2019 12:18 pm

SteveFoerster wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 11:52 am
What about East Timor? They're in the region, and it seems they could use any economic boost they could get.
I don't think that Australians and British are very welcome in East Timor...

neverfail
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Re: What does Britain hope to gain from this?

Post by neverfail » Wed Jan 09, 2019 5:29 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 12:18 pm
SteveFoerster wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 11:52 am
What about East Timor? They're in the region, and it seems they could use any economic boost they could get.
I don't think that Australians and British are very welcome in East Timor...
You might be surprised sertorio. They had the Indonesians in their country for nearly a quarter of a century - compared to which the arrival of the Australians in 1999 represented a deliverance from woe.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internati ... East_Timor

The Indonesian invasion of East Timor (Timor Leste) was a direct consequence of Portugal's irresponsible treatment of its colony in 1974-75. First of all agents of the Portuguese left parties went there to stoke up a left-nationalist revolt among the locals (against which there was then the inevitable right backlash among some of the locals) then subsequently when the half-island descended into civil war Portugal failed to maintain law and order until it could decently grant independence to a stabilised new state.

Regional powers, first the Indonesians and then the Australians have to subsequently move in and clean up the mess left behind by the Portuguese.

If any nationality should be unpopular in Timor Leste then it should by rights be your crowd, Sertorio. :(

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Sertorio
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Re: What does Britain hope to gain from this?

Post by Sertorio » Wed Jan 09, 2019 5:43 pm

neverfail wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 5:29 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 12:18 pm
SteveFoerster wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 11:52 am
What about East Timor? They're in the region, and it seems they could use any economic boost they could get.
I don't think that Australians and British are very welcome in East Timor...
You might be surprised sertorio. They had the Indonesians in their country for nearly a quarter of a century - compared to which the arrival of the Australians in 1999 represented a deliverance from woe.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internati ... East_Timor

The Indonesian invasion of East Timor (Timor Leste) was a direct consequence of Portugal's irresponsible treatment of its colony in 1974-75. First of all agents of the Portuguese left parties went there to stoke up a left-nationalist revolt among the locals (against which there was then the inevitable right backlash among some of the locals) then subsequently when the half-island descended into civil war Portugal failed to maintain law and order until it could decently grant independence to a stabilised new state.

Regional powers, first the Indonesians and then the Australians have to subsequently move in and clean up the mess left behind by the Portuguese.

If any nationality should be unpopular in Timor Leste then it should by rights be your crowd, Sertorio. :(
As it happened, President Ramos Horta specifically asked Portugal to send a company of Republican Guards to Timor, to serve as the personal force of the President, in view of Australia's attempt to use its mlitary to impose its will on Timor's government. As far as I know there were some tense moments between Portuguese and Australian troops in Dili. So, it seems that in spite of our doubtful actions in 1974-75, the Timorese still prefered us...

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cassowary
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Re: What does Britain hope to gain from this?

Post by cassowary » Wed Jan 09, 2019 7:38 pm

Milo wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:13 am
neverfail wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 4:16 am
Sertorio wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 3:14 am
The UK is an aged toothless bulldog. It should stop dreaming of the good old days when it could impose its will on the "natives"...
It can't do that any more. These days the natives can bite back.
However, it would seem that the 'natives' sometimes invite them back.

In the case of Brunei the government decided they should never leave.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Forces_Brunei
The purpose of empire is to make money. In the case of oil-rich Brunei, there was ample opportunity for Britain and British companies to make money to make it worthwhile for the trouble of leaving behind British troops. The troops are paid for by the Brunei Sultan.

So now that Britain is free (thanks to Brexit) to negotiate FTA's with SE Asian countries it pays for them to station a few destroyers. Britain took part with the "freedom of navigation" movement into the S China Sea led by the US. So having a few British destroyers will please concerned SE Asians about the Chinese grab of the S China Sea which is seen as an attempt to reduce everybody to vassal states as happened centuries ago.

This will gain Britain FTAs on favorable terms, starting with Singapore, if Singapore is chosen. Our relations with China will drop one notch, no doubt. Meanwhile, Singapore shipyards will enjoy business repairing and provisioning British warships. I suspect the cost is cheaper here than in Britain. So its a win-win. But they may choose Brunei instead, where the cost is even cheaper. But being Muslim, they are not as efficient.

Anybody wants to bet on Brunei?
The Imp :D

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Milo
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Re: What does Britain hope to gain from this?

Post by Milo » Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:32 pm

cassowary wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 7:38 pm
Milo wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:13 am
neverfail wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 4:16 am
Sertorio wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 3:14 am
The UK is an aged toothless bulldog. It should stop dreaming of the good old days when it could impose its will on the "natives"...
It can't do that any more. These days the natives can bite back.
However, it would seem that the 'natives' sometimes invite them back.

In the case of Brunei the government decided they should never leave.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Forces_Brunei
The purpose of empire is to make money. In the case of oil-rich Brunei, there was ample opportunity for Britain and British companies to make money to make it worthwhile for the trouble of leaving behind British troops. The troops are paid for by the Brunei Sultan.

So now that Britain is free (thanks to Brexit) to negotiate FTA's with SE Asian countries it pays for them to station a few destroyers. Britain took part with the "freedom of navigation" movement into the S China Sea led by the US. So having a few British destroyers will please concerned SE Asians about the Chinese grab of the S China Sea which is seen as an attempt to reduce everybody to vassal states as happened centuries ago.

This will gain Britain FTAs on favorable terms, starting with Singapore, if Singapore is chosen. Our relations with China will drop one notch, no doubt. Meanwhile, Singapore shipyards will enjoy business repairing and provisioning British warships. I suspect the cost is cheaper here than in Britain. So its a win-win. But they may choose Brunei instead, where the cost is even cheaper. But being Muslim, they are not as efficient.

Anybody wants to bet on Brunei?
It could wind up being both, given that both potentially provide very cost effective solutions.

Singapore has a history of hiring other's troops on the down low. How many know about the Israeli units stationed there?

I think an overt presence in Brunei and a more subtle, perhaps even secret, one in Singapore is the most likely outcome.

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cassowary
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Re: What does Britain hope to gain from this?

Post by cassowary » Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:59 pm

Milo wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:32 pm
cassowary wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 7:38 pm
Milo wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:13 am
neverfail wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 4:16 am
Sertorio wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 3:14 am
The UK is an aged toothless bulldog. It should stop dreaming of the good old days when it could impose its will on the "natives"...
It can't do that any more. These days the natives can bite back.
However, it would seem that the 'natives' sometimes invite them back.

In the case of Brunei the government decided they should never leave.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Forces_Brunei
The purpose of empire is to make money. In the case of oil-rich Brunei, there was ample opportunity for Britain and British companies to make money to make it worthwhile for the trouble of leaving behind British troops. The troops are paid for by the Brunei Sultan.

So now that Britain is free (thanks to Brexit) to negotiate FTA's with SE Asian countries it pays for them to station a few destroyers. Britain took part with the "freedom of navigation" movement into the S China Sea led by the US. So having a few British destroyers will please concerned SE Asians about the Chinese grab of the S China Sea which is seen as an attempt to reduce everybody to vassal states as happened centuries ago.

This will gain Britain FTAs on favorable terms, starting with Singapore, if Singapore is chosen. Our relations with China will drop one notch, no doubt. Meanwhile, Singapore shipyards will enjoy business repairing and provisioning British warships. I suspect the cost is cheaper here than in Britain. So its a win-win. But they may choose Brunei instead, where the cost is even cheaper. But being Muslim, they are not as efficient.

Anybody wants to bet on Brunei?
It could wind up being both, given that both potentially provide very cost effective solutions.

Singapore has a history of hiring other's troops on the down low. How many know about the Israeli units stationed there?

I think an overt presence in Brunei and a more subtle, perhaps even secret, one in Singapore is the most likely outcome.
There are no Israeli troops here. But there are a few Gurkhas. When National Service first started, Israeli soldiers were hired to train the fledgling army. But that was decades ago. We would prefer a secret presence of British assets because we don't want to upset the Chinese.

Brunei may welcome a British presence to get better terms in its maritime dispute with China. Or they may calculate that it is not wise to offend China. Just as Britain may want to use Brunei to get better terms with Singapore, Brunei may want to use the British to get better terms from the Chinese.
The Imp :D

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Milo
Posts: 1945
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 10:14 pm

Re: What does Britain hope to gain from this?

Post by Milo » Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:34 pm

cassowary wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:59 pm
Milo wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:32 pm
cassowary wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 7:38 pm
Milo wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:13 am
neverfail wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 4:16 am
Sertorio wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 3:14 am
The UK is an aged toothless bulldog. It should stop dreaming of the good old days when it could impose its will on the "natives"...
It can't do that any more. These days the natives can bite back.
However, it would seem that the 'natives' sometimes invite them back.

In the case of Brunei the government decided they should never leave.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Forces_Brunei
The purpose of empire is to make money. In the case of oil-rich Brunei, there was ample opportunity for Britain and British companies to make money to make it worthwhile for the trouble of leaving behind British troops. The troops are paid for by the Brunei Sultan.

So now that Britain is free (thanks to Brexit) to negotiate FTA's with SE Asian countries it pays for them to station a few destroyers. Britain took part with the "freedom of navigation" movement into the S China Sea led by the US. So having a few British destroyers will please concerned SE Asians about the Chinese grab of the S China Sea which is seen as an attempt to reduce everybody to vassal states as happened centuries ago.

This will gain Britain FTAs on favorable terms, starting with Singapore, if Singapore is chosen. Our relations with China will drop one notch, no doubt. Meanwhile, Singapore shipyards will enjoy business repairing and provisioning British warships. I suspect the cost is cheaper here than in Britain. So its a win-win. But they may choose Brunei instead, where the cost is even cheaper. But being Muslim, they are not as efficient.

Anybody wants to bet on Brunei?
It could wind up being both, given that both potentially provide very cost effective solutions.

Singapore has a history of hiring other's troops on the down low. How many know about the Israeli units stationed there?

I think an overt presence in Brunei and a more subtle, perhaps even secret, one in Singapore is the most likely outcome.
There are no Israeli troops here. But there are a few Gurkhas. When National Service first started, Israeli soldiers were hired to train the fledgling army. But that was decades ago. We would prefer a secret presence of British assets because we don't want to upset the Chinese.

Brunei may welcome a British presence to get better terms in its maritime dispute with China. Or they may calculate that it is not wise to offend China. Just as Britain may want to use Brunei to get better terms with Singapore, Brunei may want to use the British to get better terms from the Chinese.
I think the reasons why a Muslim monarchy would seek protection from China are pretty obvious.

neverfail
Posts: 3557
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2016 3:47 am

Re: What does Britain hope to gain from this?

Post by neverfail » Thu Jan 10, 2019 2:50 am

Sertorio wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 5:43 pm

As it happened, President Ramos Horta specifically asked Portugal to send a company of Republican Guards to Timor, to serve as the personal force of the President, in view of Australia's attempt to use its mlitary to impose its will on Timor's government. As far as I know there were some tense moments between Portuguese and Australian troops in Dili. So, it seems that in spite of our doubtful actions in 1974-75, the Timorese still prefered us...
Ramos-Horta's move sounds to me more like politics than evidence of lingering affection for the former colonial ruler. He wanted to cut down his fledgling nation's lopsided dependence on the goodwill of its near neighbour to the southeast. Just as well that those Republican guards did not get into a fight with our diggers - ours would have wiped the floor with them - bearing in mind that ours were close to their home country and its logistical support whereas your Republican guards were far from home and effectively isolated.

You are absolutely wrong in believing that this country attempted to use our military to impose its will of East Timor's government (from where did you pick up that lie, Sertorio - the Russian media?) Our Australian soldiers created a lot of goodwill and gratitude among the locals while they were stationed there. Our falling out with East Timor came from the position of Australian governments over the issue of oil and money.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-21/ ... ce/6790978

I agree with the facts revealed by the author here (and I hope that you can see just how much two separate generations of Aussie soldiers who had served there sympathised with the east Timor people as reflected in his case). What I disagree with is the supposition that Australia was somehow doing East Timor an injustice in insisting that Australia retained ownership and control of the oil and gas fields located in the sea between the two coastlines.

The oil and gas were discovered and developed within Australian jurisdiction while East Timor was still an annexed province of Indonesia. An agreement entered into between Canberra and Jakarta established a complex joint sovereignty where exploration and development of the hydrocarbon resources fell within Australian jurisdiction but (on a sliding scale depending on how close to the Timor coast they were located) Indonesia, then the sovereign power in ET, was entitled to a share of the oil royalty payments). It was presumed that once East Timor became sovereign it would simply "inherit" the payments scheme formerly due to the Indonesian government; but the new government in East Timor wanted a lot more than that.

Among other concessions: Dili wants gas from the Greater Sunrise field to be brought by undersea pipeline to East Timor for the purpose of establishing an LNG plant on the island to provide their economy with a tangible export along with hundreds of jobs for the locals. But the oil companies that developed the resource want the gas to be piped onshore to Australia as they have more confidence in Australia as a long term prospect to safely invest large sums of money in over long periods of time. Which is what you have to bank on when building a gas liquefaction plant.

With East Timor, who knows what may happen? It may yet degenerate into becoming just another of the World's all too many poverty-stricken, ex-colonial, politically unstable banana republics ruled by a kleptocracy of corrupt officials. World any sober investment fund manager or corporate CEO want to put his own , his clients' or his shareholders' money at risk investing in a hole like that? Well, neither would the oil and gas companies involved in developing Greater Sunrise.

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