I can well understand your concern Cass - especially with reference to Indonesia. I can only suggest (and pray) that Indonesia is NOT Afghanistan and it is not Xinjiang.cassowary wrote: ↑Sun Dec 23, 2018 10:43 pmThen how come, Afghanistan gave the USSR so much trouble?neverfail wrote: ↑Sun Dec 23, 2018 2:31 pmToo many Han; too few Uighurs. They will be crushed.cassowary wrote: ↑Sun Dec 23, 2018 6:59 amYes. It happened many times in fact. China's dynasties follow a pattern. A dynasty grows corrupt and weak. A regional rebellion brings it down. A new dynasty starts. It made great accomplishments. Then it grows weak and the cycle starts anew.
In this case, things will be different from the past. Maybe, the Muslim world will get angry with China. Fanatical Muslims target China and Chinese interests around the world. Jihadists make a beeline to Xinjiang. The CCP will find Xinjiang a quagmire it can't get out of. It is part of China. Letting one province go is a sign of weakness it dares not show. Or other provinces will want to break away.
Cass, I too have studied Chinese history and on average a Chinese dynastic state usually lasted an average of around 300 years before falling to internal chaos or foreign invasion. Based upon that average life expectancy precept the current latest manifestation of the traditional Chinese imperial state template then the current regime is still too far from its use by expiry date. I do not believe that foreign jihads, Even if they can infiltrate their way into Xinjiang (unlikely, given the desert physical conditions and the tracking/monitoring technology the PRC government must have at its disposal) I doubt whether they could ever dislodge the PRC from that region.
Even if you are right, the jihadists can attack Chinese interests in their countries. Unfortunately, the overseas Chinese might get hurt. I am thinking of places like Indonesia.
Afghanistan? The tribes of Afghanistan may hate one another; yet they seem to hate foreigners who intrude into their domain even more. Especially foreigners who are non-Muslim infidel. They gave the Americans and (a century and more ago) the British a lot of trouble too.
This is the point you may likewise contemplate about Xinjiang. In relation to the native Uighur the Han would be resented as alien occupiers and oppressors of their country - and kakir ones to boot. Nothing seems to bne guaranteed to fan up Islamic militancy more than that.
(...and if the PRC Chinese see themselves as the bringers of progress to a backward people, well, bear in mind that back in the 19th century the British intruders into Afghanistan aw themselves the same way.)
Indonesia is not in any such situation Cass. It is sovereign and has a recent historical background of successfully WINNING its struggle for independence from a former foreign colonial ruler. It has also had success in putting down militant Islamic insurrection - bearing in mind that this diverse country has a secular constitution to defend.