Great Depression’ ahead?

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Sertorio
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Re: Great Depression’ ahead?

Post by Sertorio » Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:26 am

SteveFoerster wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:47 am
neverfail wrote:
Sun Oct 14, 2018 3:33 pm
Not helped along by the fact that the two big political parties in the US are in the habit of fielding endorsed candidates to run for president who, while they may present themselves well in front of the TV cameras, usually turn out to be clueless about macro-economic management.
Which is not surprising, since the entire U.S. mainstream is Keynesian.
Wrong as Keynes may have been sometimes, Keynesian economics is still the least wrong of all macroecononomical propositions. Growth depends mostly on an increase in demand. The thing to avoid is boosting demand by recourse do indebtedness (except on what investment is concerned).

neverfail
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Re: Great Depression’ ahead?

Post by neverfail » Tue Nov 27, 2018 11:24 am

As I pointed out in a post I made months ago:

https://www.canberratimes.com.au/world/ ... 50ion.html
New York: When iconic car manufacturer General Motors announced it would cut almost 15,000 jobs, many of them in his political heartland, US President Donald Trump seemed to take it as a personal slight.
...Trump's tariff policies are not going to bring manufacturing jobs back to the USA,

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Milo
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Re: Great Depression’ ahead?

Post by Milo » Wed Nov 28, 2018 12:14 pm

neverfail wrote:
Tue Nov 27, 2018 11:24 am
As I pointed out in a post I made months ago:

https://www.canberratimes.com.au/world/ ... 50ion.html
New York: When iconic car manufacturer General Motors announced it would cut almost 15,000 jobs, many of them in his political heartland, US President Donald Trump seemed to take it as a personal slight.
...Trump's tariff policies are not going to bring manufacturing jobs back to the USA,
This may be a case of Trump fluffing the numbers for the short term. HIs history in business suggests this is a familiar pattern.

neverfail
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Re: Great Depression ahead?

Post by neverfail » Wed Nov 28, 2018 6:15 pm

"The dinner in Argentina that could shape the world's economic destiny"

It doesn’t help that neither Trump nor his trade or economic advisers are prepared to acknowledge (if, indeed, they recognise it) that a trade conflict harms the US along with those it targets, or that a country that issues the world’s reserve currency is inevitably going to run structural current account deficits.

Given that Trump doesn’t appear to understand the issues, and China isn’t going to surrender its aspirations, there is little reason to be optimistic about the outcome of the Trump dinner with Xi Jinping.

The best hope for an unexpectedly positive outcome is that the Chinese could come up with something that appeals to the Trump ego by appearing to give him a victory without China actually making meaningful concessions.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/busine ... 50ivb.html

It looks bleak, doesn't it?

neverfail
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Re: Great Depression’ ahead?

Post by neverfail » Fri Nov 30, 2018 3:46 am

How Trump could make the next global financial crisis even worse

https://www.canberratimes.com.au/busine ... 50ja6.html

neverfail
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Re: Even David Goldman sees the portents of doom.

Post by neverfail » Fri Nov 30, 2018 3:57 am

Trade war to blame for CapEx bust

Uncertainty over trade policy is crippling investment and driving a slowdown in the global economy
By DAVID P. GOLDMAN NOVEMBER 30, 2018 5:47 AM (UTC+8)

Some of the world’s largest economies are shrinking and all of them are slowing, thanks in large part to the threat of trade war.

Tariffs imposed by the United States and China’s retaliatory tariffs have had little direct impact on growth, to be sure, but uncertainty over trade war has cut deeply into investment plans. Trade in capital goods appears to be driving the slowdown.

Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, shrank at a 0.3% annual rate during the third quarter. Germany’s economy shrank by 0.2% during the third quarter, and government economists think that the fourth quarter will show negative numbers as well, leaving the world’s fourth-largest economy in recession. Sweden and Switzerland also reported negative growth of -.02% during the third quarter.

Trade war leaves companies uncertain of where and when to invest. Manufacturing managers are trying to work out whether to move Chinese production capacity to other Asian nations in order to avoid American tariffs, or whether to stay in China or do nothing at all. The uncertainty appears sufficiently pervasive to cause an economic downturn in some of the most trade-dependent nations.

In separate statements yesterday, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde and US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned of the danger of slowing global growth. In a surprise turnaround, Powell said that the Federal Reserve’s short-term lending rate was “just below neutral,” in sharp contrast to consensus expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise the rate by 0.75% to 1% over the next year.

The regulators’ caution is well founded, judging from available data on international trade. Overall world trade growth has slowed from about 5%-6% year-on-year to only 2% a year as of September, the last month for which data are published by the Netherlands Central Planning Bureau.

http://www.atimes.com/article/trade-war ... apex-bust/

neverfail
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Re: then this.

Post by neverfail » Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:09 am


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Sertorio
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Re: Great Depression’ ahead?

Post by Sertorio » Fri Nov 30, 2018 9:29 am

3 Things That Happened Just Before The Crisis Of 2008 That Are Happening Again Right Now

Real estate, oil and the employment numbers are all telling us the same thing, and that is really bad news for the U.S. economy. It really does appear that economic activity is starting to slow down significantly, but just like in 2008 those that are running things don’t want to admit the reality of what we are facing. Back then, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke insisted that the U.S. economy was not heading into a recession, and we later learned that a recession had already begun when he made that statement. And as you will see at the end of this article, current Fed Chair Jerome Powell says that he is “very happy” with how the U.S. economy is performing, but he shouldn’t be so thrilled. Signs of trouble are everywhere, and we just got several more pieces of troubling news.

Thanks to aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, the average rate on a 30 year mortgage is now up to about 4.8 percent. Just like in 2008, that is killing the housing market and it has us on the precipice of another real estate meltdown.

And some of the markets that were once the hottest in the entire country are leading the way down. For example, just check out what is happening in Manhattan…

In the third quarter, the median price for a one-bedroom Manhattan home was $815,000, down 4% from the same period in 2017. The volume of sales fell 12.7%.

Of course things are even worse at the high end of the market. Some Manhattan townhouses are selling for millions of dollars less than what they were originally listed for.

Sadly, Manhattan is far from alone. Pending home sales are down all over the nation. In October, U.S. pending home sales were down 4.6 percent on a year over year basis, and that was the tenth month in a row that we have seen a decline…

Hope was high for a rebound (after new-home-sales slumped), but that was dashed as pending home sales plunged 2.6% MoM in October (well below the expected 0.5% MoM bounce).

Additionally, Pending Home Sales fell 4.6% YoY – the 10th consecutive month of annual declines…

When something happens for 10 months in a row, I think that you can safely say that a trend has started.

Sales of new homes continue to plummet as well. In fact, we just witnessed a 12 percent year over year decline for sales of new single family houses last month…

Sales of new single-family houses plunged 12% in October, compared to a year ago, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 544,000 houses, according to estimates by the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

With an inventory of new houses for sale at 336,000 (seasonally adjusted), the supply at the current rate of sales spiked to 7.4 months, from 6.5 months’ supply in September, and from 5.6 months’ supply a year ago.

If all of this sounds eerily similar to 2008, that is because it is eerily similar to what happened just before and during the last financial crisis.

Up until now, at least the economic optimists could point to the employment numbers as a reason for hope, but not anymore.

In fact, initial claims for unemployment benefits have now risen for three weeks in a row…

The number of Americans filing applications for jobless benefits increased to a six-month high last week, which could raise concerns that the labor market could be slowing.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 234,000 for the week ended Nov. 24, the highest level since the mid-May, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims have now risen for three straight weeks.

This is also similar to what we witnessed back in 2008. Jobless claims started to creep up, and then when the crisis fully erupted there was an avalanche of job losses.

And just like 10 years ago, we are starting to see a lot of big corporations start to announce major layoffs.

General Motors greatly upset President Trump when they announced that they were cutting 14,000 jobs just before the holidays, but GM is far from alone. For a list of some of the large firms that have just announced layoffs, please see my previous article entitled “U.S. Job Losses Accelerate: Here Are 10 Big Companies That Are Cutting Jobs Or Laying Off Workers”.

A third parallel to 2008 is what is happening to the price of oil.

In 2008, the price of oil shot up to a record high before falling precipitously.

Well, now a similar thing has happened. Earlier this year the price of oil shot up to $76 a barrel, but this week it slid beneath the all-important $50 barrier…

Oil’s recent slide has shaved more than a third off its price. Crude fell more than 1% Thursday to as low as $49.41 a barrel. The last time oil closed below $50 was in October 4, 2017. By mid morning the price had climbed back to above $51.

Concerns about oversupply have sent oil prices into a virtual freefall: Crude hit a four-year high above $76 a barrel less than two months ago.

When economists are asked why the price of oil is falling, the primary answer they give is because global economic activity is softening.

And that is definitely the case. In fact, we just learned that economic confidence in the eurozone has declined for the 11th month in a row…

Euro-area economic confidence slipped for an 11th straight month, further damping expectations that the currency bloc will rebound from a sharp growth slowdown and complicating the European Central Bank’s plans to pare back stimulus.

In addition, we just got news that the Swiss and Swedish economies had negative growth in the third quarter.

The economic news is bad across the board, and it appears to be undeniable that a global economic downturn has begun.

But current Fed Chair Jerome Powell insists that he is “very happy about the state of the economy”…

Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve’s chairman, has also taken an optimistic line, declaring in Texas recently that he was “very happy about the state of the economy.”

That is just great. He can be as happy as he wants, and he can continue raising interest rates as he sticks his head in the sand, but nothing is going to change economic reality.

Every single Fed rate hiking cycle in history has ended in a market crash and/or a recession, and this time won’t be any different.

The Federal Reserve created the “boom” that we witnessed in recent years, but we must also hold them responsible for the “bust” that is about to happen.

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/arch ... -right-now
No comments. I'm waiting for the next instalments...

Jim the Moron
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Re: Great Depression’ ahead?

Post by Jim the Moron » Fri Nov 30, 2018 9:51 am

Good stuff for the folks wishing for, praying for the collapse of the US economy.

neverfail
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Re: Great Depression’ ahead?

Post by neverfail » Fri Nov 30, 2018 3:38 pm

Jim the Moron wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 9:51 am
Good stuff for the folks wishing for, praying for the collapse of the US economy.
Was Jeremiah the Old Testament Hebrew prophet "wishing for, praying" for the fall of Jerusalem to the Assyrian host? I don't believe that he would have been. Instead, he would have been remiss in his duty as God's soothsayer had he not tried to warn his countrymen about the catastrophe he saw coming; presumably in the hope that it still might be averted.

I dread the coming crash for the worldwide consequences that are likely to ensue. But as in Jeremiah's time "a prophet is never honoured in his own time and in his own country".

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